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长城证券 研究院汽车首席 分析师：陈逸同执业证书 编号：S1070522110001研究助理：吴铭 杰执业证书 编号：S1070122070020 2800 7050 7650 2025 900 CAGR 23%50 1050 1250 1550 500 1500 100 500 200 650 2022 687 96%2022+5.2pct CO2|2 0YDWwPnQoNnMqOpMsPtMrQbRdNaQnPmMsQnOfQoOpNiNmMvMaQrQsOvPtQnMMYnQzQ|3|4 1.1|5 Chiller PTC PTC/1.1|8 1 2 1 2 1 2-30 45 1.1|6 1 2 2/3 1 2 PTC 3/4+PTC 5/PTC PTC/PTC/+PTC/1.1|7 Chiller PCT PTC Chiller BEVPHEVICE 1.2/+|9/EGR/EGR HVAC 1.2+|10 PTC PTC Chiller PTC PTC PTC/PTC Chiller PTC HVAC 1.2+/Chiller/PTC EGR|11/1.3|12 2800 ICE 500 100 100 50 100 50 200 150+150 100 1500/200 150EGR 300 200 100 150 50 50 100 1300 2800 1.3|13 EV+PTC 7050 1500 100 100 50 100 200 A-PTC 500 250 150 150+300 500 3900 250 150 200 150 200 200 150 100 1400 250Chiller 250 500 250 200 200 100 1850 7050 1.3|14 7650 PHEV 1500 100 100 50 100 250 200 150+150 100 2700/200 150EGR 300 200 100 150 100 50 100 1350 250 200 150 150 150 100 1000 250 150Chiller 250 500 250W-PTC 800 200 200 2700 7650 1.3|14 PTC 1 2 Chiller 1 2 5012505001002000105015501500500650500020040060080010001200140016001800 PTC 1.3|15 2025 929 CAGR 23%1 22 7800 7500 8350 7950 2 2025 1243 50%MARKLINES 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2014 2147 2355 2389 2437 2485 YOY-6%7%10%1%2%2%6%15%28%38%45%50%120 332 654 908 1097 1243 EV 80%82%77%78%77%76%96 272 502 708 844 944 PHEV 20%18%23%22%23%24%24 60 151 200 252 298 EV 14%31%37%45%54%63%PHEV 0%1%17%25%30%33%EV 13 86 186 319 456 595 EV 8122 7959 7800 7644 7568 7492 PHEV 0 1 26 50 76 98 PHEV 8694 8520 8350 8183 8101 8020 EV 82 187 316 389 388 349 EV 7809 7653 7500 7350 7277 7204 PHEV 24 59 125 150 177 200 PHEV 8278 8112 7950 7791 7713 7636 96 260 504 687 825 929 YOY 172%94%36%20%13%1.3|15 2025 115 215 193 76 78 23-25 CAGR=23%MARKLINES 01002003004005006007008002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0501001502002503003504004505002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E|18 2.1|17 Ei5 Marval X/EC-i3 2.1|18 Chiller 2.1|27-30 60/A-PTC Chiller e3.0 2.2 PTC|19 PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC 6KW 6 70 ES6 PTC 10%PTC PTC 2.2 PTC|20 Model Y COP PTC 2-3 20%COP 1 PTC 1 2.2 PTC|20 2022 38%MARKLINES 2020 2021 2022ES6 BEV 28020 41739 45451 ES7 BEV 0 0 16113ES8 BEV 11106 20943 15763EC6 BEV 5367 30121 18169ET5 BEV 0 0 13819ET7 BEV 0 118 26488 BEV 0 0 51200 BEV 0 29598 205417 PLUS BEV 0 0 202058 EV BEV 0 0 144664 DM PHEV 0 0 129351 EV BEV 0 0 25145 DM PHEV 0 0 125687 Aion LX BEV 2745 1004 3994Aion S BEV 46091 69220 115679Aion V BEV 10709 15826 31830 PHEV 0 4167 2967G9 BEV 0 0 6373P5 BEV 0 7865 37982 iX3 BEV 0 0 59151 G6 BEV 0 0 3140 A BEV 5051 14986 53361 C BEV 5277 10770 25270 001 BEV 0 6007 71941 XC40 BEV 253 1026 2179 M5 BEV 0 0 56855 Model 3 BEV 0 283999 255774Model Y BEV 0 200131 455091 20076 137798 279456 134695 875318 2480368 1203697 3322668 6535498YOY 13%176%105%11%26%38%2.3 CO2 GWP R|21 R1234yf R744 R134a 2017 ODP GWP R1234yf R744 CO2 CO2 CO2 R134a R1234yf CO2 CO2 CO2 R134a CO2 CO2 ODP GWP ODP GWP bar/R12 CCl2F2 1 5600 20-30-29.8 112.2/R22 CHClF2 0 1700 20-30-40.8 96 2030 18500R410a CH2F2&C2HF5 0 2100 20-30-51.6 70.5/R134a CH2FCF3 0 1430 20-30-26.1 101.1 25000R1234yf C3H2F4 0 4 20-30-29.5 95 70000R744 CO2 0 1 100-120-56.6 31.1 600 2.4|22 2.4|23 Roadster Roadster ModelY 1 2 3 4 Roadster Model S Model X Model 3 Model Y PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC/2008 2012 2015 2017 2020 /2.4|24 1.0 Roadster 1 Tesla Roadster Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning,HV AC PTC PTC HV AC Roadster Roadster 2.4|25 2.0 2 ModelS/X 1 PTC HV AC,Chiller Chiller 1 2 PTC Chiller PTCDC/DC 2.4|26 3.0 Super bottle 3 Model3 2 PTC Super bottle Super bottle Chiller PTC PTC Model 3 Super bottle PTC Chiller ADAS 2.4|27 4.0 ModelY PTC PTC ModelY super bottle ModelY ModelY PCS Chiller 12V PTC12V PTCDC/DC/|32 3.1|29 MARKLINES EGR 3.1|30 2020 64%1951()1923 1920 2014 2015 2020 MARKLINES 28%13%12%11%36%3.2|31 Chiller 1+4+N IBS MARKLINES PTC Chiller 3.2|32 2022 687 96%26%2022+5.2pct-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY42%39%38%44%49%19%21%23%21%17%21%24%24%21%19%5%5%3%2%2%1%1%0%1%2%1%1%1%1%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022|37 4.1|34 1958 DOC+DPF+SCR 2021 80.4%2017 1+4+N”2022 22H1 7.86 105.12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 4.1|35 22 22 11 CTC-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY%/ABB MTU LG|364.2 40 2021 10000 2022 8 10 20/AIONY/S/V/LX Mini U/V/N/S M5/M7 EX 4.3|37 22H1 32 51.5%31.5%+4pct 2017 2021 1150 2022 3 Omega 0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 4.4|40 NVH 2020 12 20 2021 649 IBS IBS 2021 12.9 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 024681012142021 2022H1()4.5|42 2018+2018 1000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022H1 4.6 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY%|38 4.7|42 CO2 CO2 CO2 6-8 CO2 CO2 MEB 2021 MEB CO2 CO2 CO2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 MEB ID 4.8|39 EGR 2022 3 350 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 EGR 150 5500.00 10566.81 150 6000.00 10686.23 50 3000.00 5023.66 1500.00 1900.00|47|44 1 2 3 CO2 长 城证券 产业金融 研究院汽 车组团 队|45长 城 研 究 与 您 共 成 长 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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