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AI AI PC PC 2024 02 25 SAC S1050521120001 SAC S1050523060001 SAC S10501230800082 AI PC PC AI AI AI AI PC AI AMD AI PC AI PC AI PC AI Ready AI On Canalys AI 2025 37%2027 AI 60%AI PC AI PC PC IDC PC AI PC 5 AI PC AI PC AI PC PC 1 AI PC X Elite AI PC 40TOPS AI PC AI ARM 2 AI PC DRAM AI DDR5 LPDDR5/X DRAM 3 NPU AI PC IDC 2024 75%PC AI PC PC PC 1 2 3/4/WUAZwPnQoNmNqOmPsPsNoP8OdN8OmOpPpNqMfQqQmOkPtRsM8OnNzRwMoNmMuOsPrQ3 Wind Wind 2024-02-23EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E300088.SZ 5.18 0.28 0.25 0.31 18.50 20.72 16.71 300115.SZ 9.45 0.04 0.12 0.50 236.25 78.75 18.90 300684.SZ 14.54 0.69 0.71 0.83 21.07 20.48 17.52 300909.SZ 20.66 0.85 0.56 1.06 35.24 37.23 19.42 301321.SZ 13.25-0.44 0.37 0.86-42.76 35.67 15.49 301489.SZ 48.76 1.35 1.44 1.89 36.12 33.86 25.80 603296.SH 65.97 3.93 3.51 3.98 16.79 18.79 16.58 603890.SH 8.42 0.36 0.13 0.48 25.52 67.21 17.64 688008.SH 51.61 1.15 0.40 1.18 54.64 127.65 43.60 4 AI 目 录CONTENTS2.AI PC 3.1.AI PC PC 5 01 AI PC PC 7 AI ChatGPT Cyberhaven ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT AI AI AI 1.1 AI 10 ChatGPT cyberhaven AI AI 108AI PC NPU AI PC AI PC AI PC AI PC AI AI 1.2 AI PC AI CPU&NPU&GPU/AI AI AI AI&/PC UI AI PC AI PC IDC91.3 AMD X Elite AI 130 AI 4.5 AI AI 45 TOPS Oryon CPU 1/3 2023.10 X Elite 8040 X86 Ryzen AI NPU AI AMD 1.6 16 TOPS AI 2024 OEM 2023.12AMD 8040Meteor Lake Chiplet 3D CPU GPU AI NPU 34 TOPS AI 200 PC Meteor Lake 2023.12 Ultra 3 M1 30%50%M1 60%AV1 2023.10 M3Meteor Lake X Elite 10 2023 12 OEM AI PC 1.4 OEM AI PC ThinkPad X1 Carbon AI AI PC AI AI AI AI AI Swift Copilot Spectre x360 14/16 AI AI LG 2024 LG gram Pro AI AI Boost AI Galaxy Book 4 Samsung Knox MacBooK Pro M3 Transformer;AI AI PC ThinkPad IT11IDC AI PC AI Ready AI On AI Ready PC NPU CPU AI AI On AI PC AI AI AI PC AI Ready AI On AI PC AI Copilot AI PC 2024 9 Canalys AI 2025 37%2027 AI 60%AI PC 2027 59%1.5 AI PC AI Ready AI PC 2025 AI PC copilot IDC IT canalys12 AI PC PC AI PC AI PC AI AI PC PC PC AI PC PC IDC PC AI PC 5 2023 3900 2027 5000 28%AI 2023 8.1%2027 84.6%1.6 AI PC PC PC PC/AI PC PC-39.5 40.6 44.3 48.0 50.6 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%30.035.040.045.050.055.02023 2024 2025 2026 2027中国个人电脑市场规模预测（百万台）AI 笔记本电脑和台式机占比 AI IDC iFind Gartner 0501001502002503003504002003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024全球PC 出货量 yoy PC PC PC PC 2023 002 AI PC142.1 PC AI PC AI PC PC15 AI AI PC AI NPU CPU NPU GPU AI 2023 12 NPU PC GPU NPU Stable Diffusion Unet VAE CPU 43 GPU 14.5 37W NPU CPU 20.7 20W 2.2 NPU GPU 5 NPU GPU CPU ITheat16 AI PC 40 TOPS Intel Meteor Lake 34 TOPS AMD Ryzen 8040 39 TOPS Snapdragon X Elite 45 TOPS 2024 AMD Ryzen 8050 Strix X Elite AI 75TOPS 45TOPS 130 70 30 token 2.2 NPU TOPS Intel Meteor Lake 34AMD Ryzen 8040 39Snapdragon X Elite 45M3 18 AI PC X Elite AI IT17 Arm PC x86 Arm 2 Arm PC 2020 1.4%2022 12.8%x86 PC AI AI ARM AI PC 1 CPU 2 GPU 3 NPU 2.2 X86 ARM 1.4%0.6%1.5%2.0%1.9%1.6%2.2%2.4%1.6%4.9%4.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3x86 Arm2020Q1-2023Q3 AI AI PC MacBook Pro 2023/10/30 M ARM Surface 2024 X Elite ARM 2024Q1 8040 AMD X86 Pro 16 AI 2023/12/15 Ultra X86ThinkPad X1 Carbon AI 2023/12/152024 LG gram Pro 2024/1/1Galaxy Book 4 2024 1 14 2024 2023/12/15 14 Redmi K70 Pro vivoX100 Pro+12 iQOO 12 GT5 Pro 21 8 ARMvivo X100 vivo X100 Pro 9300 ARMXR AI Pin 2.1GHz ARMVision Pro M2 ARMArm AI IT AMD182.3 AI PC DRAM 2022-2023 DRAM 2023 2023 DRAM PC DRAM 1 AI PC PC DRAM 2 AI AI PC DRAM 16GB 2024 DRAM 12.4%DDR5 LPDDR5/xDRAM PC DRAM 3 DRAM SPD CKD wind IT AMD 024681012141618200.00.51.01.52.02.53.0:DRAM:DDR4(8Gb(1Gx8),2133Mbps(8G):DRAM:DDR5(8Gb,SO-DIMM)SK DRAM DRAM DRAM X Elite LPDDR5xM3 LPDDR5Ryzen 8040 AMD LPDDR5Meteor Lake DDR5 LPDDR5xStrix Point AMD LPDDR5XArrow Lake DDR5Lunar Lake LPDDR5X*2 AI DDR5 LPDDR5/X192.3 AI PC DRAM DDR5 wind TechPowerUp 14 2024 LPDDR5X 32GB 7467MHz Pro 16 2023LPDDR5X 16GB/32GB 6400MHz AI PC LPDDR5XDDR5 DRAM SK 2023 Q4 DDR5 2024 DDR5 50%DDR5 SPD CKD LPDDR5 2024 LPDDR5 PC DRAM 30%-35%AI PC CPU LPDDR 2023 11 LPDDR5 39.3%35.7%21.1%1.9%0.9%1.1%SK 2023Q3 DRAM CR3 96.1%2023 Q4 DDR5SK DDR5 DDR5 DDR5 2024 DDR4DRAM DRAM DDR DDR LPDDR DDR GDDR AI Lunar lake LPDDR5XDDR520 AI PC NPU PC AI PC IDC 2024 75%PC PC 2.4 AIPC PC AI PC 1-5W/8-15W/,1 1-4W/5-7W/58 1-5W/25-45W/10 0.2mm 600-1900W/1500-5000W/20000-10000W/VC AirJet Mini 1W 5W AirJet Pro 1.75W10W03 223.1 PCIe(Peripheral Component Interconnect Express)Retimer MXC CPU HSDIMM AI DDR2 Double Data Rate DDR5/DDR4 DDR4 DDR5 DDR5 wind 17.3818.2425.6236.720.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 22.7-22.9 DDR2 2004-2008TI Inphi IDT 5 DDR3 2008-2014Inphi IDT Rambus TI 5 DDR4 2013-2017 IDT Rambus3 DDR5 2017 41%IDT Rambus3233.1 PC DRAM SPD PMIC CKD SPD PMIC DDR5 DDR5 6400MT/s PC CKD/Clock Driver 2022 9 DDR5 CKD CKD CKD 6400MT/s PC CPU DDR5 6400MT/s CPU CKD CPU wind wind 2023 2 23 DDR5 RCD*1+DB*10+SPD*1+PMIC*1+TS*2 RCD*1+SPD*1+PMIC*1+TS*2PCSPD*1+PMIC*1(6400Mt/s CKD)2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E-36.72 23.22 42.52 61.44-12.99 4.62 13.51 21.26EPS-1.15 0.40 1.18 1.86PE 55 128 44 28243.2 ODM wind ODM Counterpoint 2022 ODM/IDH 28%2021 ODM ODM ODM ODM ODM Digitimes 2023 ODM 346.61582.79803.05896.1010020030040050060070080090010002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E AIoT 851 78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%2020 2021 2022 2022 958.89253.2 ODM canalys wind 2024 2 23 AI PC 2023E 2024E 2025E-1040 1600 2000AI PC 10%19%37%AI PC 104 304 740 PC 936 1296 1260AI PC ASP-PC2 4000 4400 4800 PC ASP-2000 2200 2400AI PC-416000 1337600 3552000 PC-1872000 2851200 3024000AI PC+PC-2288000 4188800 6576000 PC-2080000 3520000 4800000 AI PC-208000 668800 1776000 AI PC PC 9%16%27%OEM 29.3%20.8%11.3%10.7%8.2%19.8%2023Q1 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E-926.46 898.66 988.53 1186.24-25.64 25.40 28.77 34.85EPS-3.93 3.51 3.98 4.82PE 17 19 17 14263.3 VR wind 2023 2 23()EMI 0.25mm Apple/FACEBOOKSONYPICO VR VR/AR TIM 16 HPS VR/AR 0.25mm-/PC 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E-15.92 19.43 23.76 28.98-1.93 2.13 2.49 2.85EPS-0.69 0.71 0.83 0.95PE 21 20 18 157.7611.4912.4815.920246810121416182019 2020 2021 2022 EMI 27 AI 27 2018-2020 2020-2021 iFind 2020 2021 2022 2021 2023 4 2023 2023 2023 12 28/12 A 300 1 20%2 10%20%3-10%10%4 10%2-10%10%3-10%报告编号:240225131730
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