资源描述
|2024 02 26 2024 2 5 20242025 2 5 5 2 5 3 2 1 20162018 20192020 7.5%-0.3%5.5%8.9%12.5%-23.8%-18.4%-27.3%22.0%67.9%2 20222023 2023 2024Q1 20222023-25.7%-11.0%2024 20242025 2 1 20222023 20242025 2 1-10 6G 2024 2024Starlink UUV 3 20242027 1 C919 2023 C919 5 150 2 2022 19.38%2023 7 3 2024 20242025 2024 1-10 1 2&3 4 5 6 S0680520010003 S0680522120001 S0680523060003 1 2023-03-13 2 2023-02-26 3 2023-02-19-48%-32%-16%0%16%2023-02 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 3002024 02 26 P.2 1.2024 2.4 1.1 5 20242025.4 1.2.6 2.7 2.1.7 2.2.8 2.3/2.9 3.11 3.1 0-1.11 3.2.15 3.3 0-1.17 3.4.19 4.21 4.1 C919&CJ1000A.21 4.2.23 4.3.25 5.2024.27 6.29 1 2.4 2.4 3.5 4/.5 5.6 6.6 7 2023.7 8.7 9 2023 2024.8 10 20202023H1.8 11 2023.9 12.9 13 2018-2023 1-9.9 14 2018-2023 1-9.9 15/.10 16 Starlink2019-2023.11 17 2023 Starlink.11 18 Starlink 70.11 19 Starlink.11 20 2023.12 21 2023.12 22.12 0YFUwPqNsRqRtNmPsPpQmN8OaO8OpNrRsQrNeRmMtReRnPpQbRmNmMuOmOqQNZpOsP2024 02 26 P.3 23.13 24.13 25 Starlink.13 26 Starlink.13 27 SpaceX DirecttoCell.13 28.14 29 2024.14 30.15 31.15 32 m m.15 33.16 34 IUSS.16 35.16 36.17 37.17 38.18 39.18 40.19 41.19 42.19 43.19 44.20 45.20 46.20 47 C919.21 48 C919.21 49 C919.22 50 CJ-1000A.22 51 20102022.23 52 20102022/.23 53.23 54.24 55 2023.25 56.25 57.27 2024 02 26 P.4 1.2024 2 1.1 5 20242025 5 2024 20242025 5 5 2 5 3 20242025 2 1 2 2 2 2 62.7%69.7%44.2%75.8%43.3%45.8%58.2%52.1%42.8%42.1%47.5%52.4%46.5%49.5%57.4%40.7%60.3%48.5%52.4%51.1%50.2%55.2%55.2%49.3%49.0%42.7%58.7%Wind 1 2015 20162018 20192020 7.5%-0.3%5.5%8.9%12.5%-23.8%-18.4%-27.3%22.0%67.9%2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4.6%2.2%4.4%14.5%10.1%-13.1%9.1%-6.2%38.1%11.2%9.6%9.6%5.3%12.9%10.9%37.1%19.2%31.0%18.7%37.7%18.5%14.5%8.4%30.7%39.6%18.9%3.9%34.0%24.2%97.6%15.9%16.9%3.2%12.3%16.5%7.6%8.4%4.5%23.9%53.9%0.4%-13.6%5.2%4.4%13.1%-76.4%-134.0%-685.9%-249.7%213.4%98.8%14.1%5.0%4.9%11.0%101.7%15.0%32.0%-4.3%12.2%8.3%8.6%12.7%3.3%4.0%0.5%0.6%-2.3%11.9%19.8%7.5%-0.3%5.5%8.9%12.5%50.3%19.2%1.7%46.8%58.5%Wind 65 2 20222023 2023 2021 24.8%2023 1-9-3.2%2021 30.2%2023 1-9 9.2%20222023-25.7%-11.0%2024 02 26 P.5 3 2021 2022 2023 1-9 2021 2022 2023 1-9 20.6%12.7%20.4%23.3%19.6%13.5%15.5%13.0%10.2%32.4%20.9%13.5%24.8%9.5%-3.2%35.8%-8.5%-25.5%30.2%16.0%9.2%66.9%27.3%-2.9%7.2%10.3%22.6%-58.0%-145.2%237.2%12.9%-3.6%-23.3%26.4%22.3%-37.1%3.0%9.9%-13.7%0.7%35.9%-3.6%13.9%10.9%11.1%19.8%8.8%7.1%Wind 2024 20242025 2 1 2024 2024 2 2023 20242025 2023 20242025 4/2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E-2.2%1.0%1.1%5.5%7.6%6.0%3.6%8.8%10.3%3.3%2.6%-0.7%-0.2%6.1%3.3%-0.9%2.0%8.0%26.0%13.2%24.5%14.8%-16.0%-1.0%9.2%5.8%8.8%24.3%-70.0%4.6%3.5%3.8%6.6%8.5%5.8%7.0%2.9%4.6%-2.8%4.1%2.4%-0.7%2.8%3.4%3.5%6.5%7.4%7.5%9.4%7.9%7.8%8.1%7.9%7.2%3.6%6.5%7.2%-2.2%4.9%4.4%4.5%11.3%6.7%2.2%10.9%2028 250 300 5.9%15.7%10.6%7.6%11.1%7.3%4.5%13.3%13.0%-81.5%16.4%14.4%32.0%23.2%14.1%0.7%792.2%146.8 SIPRI 20152022 2023 2024 2024 02 26 P.6 1.2 1-10 5 1 globalfirepower 65%30%15%16%2 2023 Starlink 1984 4 Link CDL CEC MADL Link16 80 3 2020 4 2022 GMLRS 15.98 207.52 6 2023 8 2023 8 2023 10 2023 11 8511 2024 02 26 P.7 2.2.1 1 2023 2023 7 2023 2023 2023Q1-Q3 2023 2023Q1-Q3 2023 14.38%11.18%35.85%30.51%0.24%-22.29%70.50%-30.15%-43.41%-75.15%2.96%-41.83%102.00%3.13%-16.24%-46.68%-50.27%52.01%50%80%7.69%-25.84%-44.88%-50.41%-65.90%33.18%-31.49%-9.97%0.26%-17.20%-6.98%-23.03%-23.54%-54.91%2023 ZT7-5.47%-32.13%-Wind 2023 2 8 F-15 1974 40 1200 2024 F-15EX 1015%2025%6070%C919 C919 1200 C919 5 150 C919 2023 7-2024 02 26 P.8 3 2024 2024 9 2023 2024 2023 2024 PE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023 11.18%30.51%2023 11 25 1,034.49 30.36 38.78 34 27 2023 6180%2024 2023+22.09%567.47 8.9 13.65 64 42 2024/2023 111 157%91%168%24 207.50 5.25 7.7 40 27 2023 120.91 0.35 1.64 345 74 2324 Wind 2024/02/21 2.2 1 2023 Q3 1 2023Q1-Q3 17.38%10 20202023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 17.05%18.15%17.16%18.17%39.32%49.41%42.29%18.84%50.15%-20.07%5.09%19.54%33.22%12.07%2.57%-36.67%36.15%-94.74%11.70%-2.36%-14.91%-9.02%24.77%-3.81%2 Q3 2023Q3 2023 2023Q3 367.75 2023 257.34 42.9%2024 02 26 P.9 11 2023-23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4E 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4E 13.98%6.28%8.94%-66.53%-15.39%-28.89%-106.69%23.85%21.13%-0.76%19.59%13.90%-13.68%-15.59%49.11%47.09%14.68%-52.48%-33.84%7.67%-8.71%-26.92%30.13%43.83%-29.61%7.11%-5.45%87.28%-50.64%22.55%33.38%27.09%2.84%-6.46%7.95%-19.14%-2.53%56.30%26.26%-61.52%2.89%28.98%-21.36%-63.12%Wind 23Q4 2 2024 24 2024 1 3.1 3.3 12 PE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 886.58 15.85 20.6 56 43 213.59 8.14 10.28 26 21 119.11 4.05 7.32 29 16 88.15 3.3 4.57 27 19 157.09 3.34 5.85 47 27 81.14 6.17 7.73 13 10 227.21 5.76 7.7 39 30 Wind Wind 20240221 2.3/2 1 2023 20222023 2023 1-9 8 121.70-3.19%19.77-25.47%2023 13 2018-2023 1-9 14 2018-2023 1-9 Wind Wind 67.6088.34123.28153.86168.46121.708.38%30.68%39.56%24.80%9.49%-3.19%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050100150200 yoy%10.2212.6925.0834.0731.1719.7733.96%24.17%97.63%35.83%-8.52%-25.47%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025303540 yoy%2024 02 26 P.10 2 20242025 2425 1 2023/1/3 4347 2 2021 11 400 2023 10 24 5000 2 2024 23 2023 10.54 118.29%2024 100%3 1 GMLRS 1 2024 1.4 2022 GMLRS 15.98 207.52 2 4 20222023 20242025 15/PE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 44.11-0.47 3.03-15 61.34 1.45 1.86 42 33 146.59 6.00 7.87 24 19 135.11 2.61 3.72 52 36 25.92 0.87 1.36 30 19 Wind Wind 20240221 2024 02 26 P.11 3.3.1 0-1 1 2023 Starlink G60 1 Starlink Starlink 2023 2023 12 31 2023Starlink 1984 2022 15.21%1581 936 StarlinkV2mini 16 Starlink2019-2023 17 2023 Starlink JonathansSpacePages Starlink JonathansSpacePages Starlink Starlink 2023 11 SpaceX Starlink 2023 12 Starlink 70/2023 130 230 Starlink C 18 Starlink 70 19 Starlink 美国墨 西 哥、智利、加拿大牙 买 加、多 米 尼 加 共和国、巴西洪都 拉斯、哥斯 达黎 加、巴哈 马、危地 马拉、特 立 尼 达 和 多 巴 哥、巴 拿 马、萨 尔 瓦 多、厄瓜多尔、海地、哥 伦 比 亚、秘鲁、巴 拉 圭美洲立 陶 宛、克 罗 地 亚、瑞典、捷 克 共 和 国、意 大 利、波兰、瑞士、葡 萄 牙、爱尔兰、丹麦、比 利 时、荷兰、奥 地 利、法国、德国、英国芬兰、马 耳 他、挪威、爱 沙 尼 亚、摩尔多瓦、卢 森 堡、北马其顿、匈 牙 利、拉脱维亚、希腊、罗 马 尼亚、乌 克 兰、保 加 利亚、斯 洛 文 尼 亚、斯洛伐 克、西 班 牙冰岛欧洲澳 大 利 亚、新西 兰 汤加 北马 里亚纳 群岛和 关岛大洋洲马尔代夫、格鲁吉亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、塞 浦 路 斯日本、伊朗 亚洲贝宁共和国、赞比亚、马拉维、莫桑比克、卢 旺 达、肯尼 亚、尼 日 利 亚非洲2020 年 2021 年 2022 年 2023 年 Starlink Infomediang BNNbreaking Starlinkinsider Satellitemap Spacenews 2024 2023 10 7 11 Kuipersat-1 Kuipersat-2 2024 2024 12083397617221984050010001500200025002019 2020 2021 2022 20234036459360500100015002000Starlink Gen1 Starlink Gen2AV1.5 V2.0mini1181149016333070 424448336.94142510020023005010015020025001000200030004000500060002021.06 2021.11 2022.03 2022.12 2023.09 2023.12左：在轨服务卫星(颗)右：用户量(万）2024 02 26 P.12 2 2023 G60 12000 ITU 2023 SAILSPACE CSN SPECSTAR BLACKSPIDER 7.7 2023 12 30 4 14 0-1 20 2023 21 2023 2023.7.9/2023.04-12 SAILSPACE 29338 2023.02-SPECSTAR 16231 2023.04-12 CSN 13992 2023.11.23/2023.12 MOTS 8960 2023.08-12 BLACKSPIDER 7216 2023.12.06/2023.12 CHNHTSAT-LEO 1128 2023.03-ASIASAT-NGSO 399 2023.12.30/2023.12 GC-VHF 300-77494 ITU 2023-2 03 2023 12 22 2023-2025+2023 11 20 2023 2025 2025 50 600 8 10 5 2000 2025 2030 3 5 2023 11 20 10 1000 15 2023 11 30 2023-2030 2025 300 2030 2024 02 26 P.13 2 2024 Starlink StarlinkV2 SpaceX Starship Starlink Starlink Kuiper G60 1 Starship 2024 2023 Starship 4 11 SpaceX Flight3 SN28 B10 Starship 7000 200250 150 23 24-9 70 120 33 LEO 22.8 250 500 5000 10%+5.2 9 3000USD/kg 100-200USD/kg SpaceX NTRS 2 2023 10 11 SpaceX Direct to Cell 2024 2025 IOT T-MOBILE OPTUS 25 Starlink 26 Starlink Starlink Starlink 27 SpaceX DirecttoCell 2023-10-11 SpaceX Direct to Cell 2023-12-14 FCC 2024.6.14 2000 840 2024-1-2 SpaceX Starlink 21 StarlinkV2mini 6 2024-1-8 Starlink T-Mobile SpaceX fiercewireless 2024 02 26 P.14 3 2023 4 0-1 2024 28 29 2024 2025 50-3 9 2024 6 30 2024 3-2 2 9 3 2025 2025 1 10 3 2025 2026 2030 30 2024 6 30 2025 6 IT 3 1/2 3 4 SIP T/R 2024 02 26 P.15 3.2 30 2009.0306 2009 3 5 5 2 6 11 2015.8.25 2016.12.15 CNN 2018.12.30 11 9 2021.7.28 7 28 SAG 2023.09 21 10 CNN 1 68 31 32 m m 170 12.8 18750 24 II 4 533 094 138 12.5 11000 12 2A/3 6 533 CMPR 2 UUV UUV 1 UUV 2030 UUV 30 UUV 2 UUV 705 710 2019 UUV-HSU001 6 6501440204060 2024 02 26 P.16 33 3 1 IUSS 4000 31 1995 160 2023 2 2017-5 21 34 IUSS 35 DOSITS 4 2023 XLUUV CSSC-705 2024 7.3+70%20242027 1 2 3 2024 02 26 P.17 3.3 0-1 1 36/34 70%95%-2/14%EA-6A EB-66 EA-6B 14%1.1%-2s 37 1%2 50 15 6.7 30 3.3 64 1.6-3 2028 235.8 AlliedMarketResearch 20212028 2020 158.1 2028 235.6 CAGR 5.6%2020 40%20212028 CAGR 6.1%4 2017 2015-16D 2024 02 26 P.18 38 2021 10 2030 10 3 10 2018 2015 J10-B-16D-5 29 8511 723 29 8511 723 TR 39 29 8511 723 724 55 24 100%2016/60%10 DC-50GHz Wind 6 1 2021 3 2 2024 02 26 P.19 3.4 1 2 2/40/-41 42-2 E-2T E-2C F-14 100 43 100 40 20 10 4 500-2024 02 26 P.20 3/Link Link4 Link11 Link16 ISR 20 80 90 CDL/Link CDL CEC MADL Link16 Link11 44-2.0:-4 researchandmarkets 2022 78 2030 112 4.6%/45 46 researchandmarkets 2.0-5 1 2 3 781120204060801001202022 2030 CAGR=4.6%2024 02 26 P.21 4.4.1 C919&CJ1000A 1 C919 C919 C919 5 150 2023 47 C919 2 C919 20232030 6000 2023 9 100 C919 2024 5 20252027 10 20282030 15 C919 1200 20232030 961 C919 6275 2023-2030 CAGR 56%2023 11 C919 48 C919 yoy 2023 10 6.53 65 2024 30 6.53 196 200.00%2025 66 6.53 431 120.00%2026 110 6.53 718 66.67%2027 150 6.53 980 36.36%2028 175 6.53 1143 16.67%2029 200 6.53 1306 14.29%2030 220 6.53 1437 10.00%961-6275 C919 6.53 2022 A 3 C919 2023 5 239 C919 C919 50%+/2024 02 26 P.22 49 C919/CFM/4 CJ1000A C919 LEAP-1C CJ-1000A 2027 50 CJ-1000A 2024 02 26 P.23 5 C919 C919 1 2 4.2 1 SIPRI 2021 2022 267.92 319.83 TIV 11.63%19.38%1 2 2018 25.8%2022 8.82%51 20102022 52 20102022/SIPRI SIPRI 2 20192023 25%53-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 TIV yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%2024 02 26 P.24 3 2023 7 2023 54 2023 7 2023 2022 500 2023 20202022 CAGR 45.5%2022 120 260 2023 210 4 2024 02 26 P.25 4.3 1 2023 2 2023 10 2022 55 2023 2023 10 1 10 1 2023 6 14 2023 5 24 2023 2 23 2 56 60 120 49%20090421 20090522 167%245%100%20090409 20100920 305%431%100%100%100%100%100%100%80%20130123 20130618 28%41%100%100%100%20140303 20140918 253%438%100%20140505 20140922 143%260%100%20140408 20141103 150%211%100%20151012 20160325 30%17%100%20160203 20161124 48%52%100%20160829 20161223 162%132%100%100%100%-20200923 47%10%100%100%20210922 20210930 255%125%100%20230112 20230202 386%425%Wind 2024 02 26 P.26 3 3 2024 02 26 P.27 5.2024 20222023 20222023-25.7%-11.0%2024 20242025 2 1 1 2 20222023 20242025 2 1-10 1 2024 2 20242027 UUV 3 3 3 1 C919 2023 C919 5 150 2 2023 7 3 2024 57 2024 02 26 P.28 4 2024 1-10 1 2&3 4 5 6 2024 02 26 P.29 6.1 2 3 2024 02 26 P.30,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
展开阅读全文