资源描述
|2024 02 29 HNB/HNB HNB HNB 2014 IQOS HNB HNB HNB 2022 724.28 CAGR 14.79%8.2%2023 193 CAGR 4.94%HNB HNB 2020 2023 HNB 469 CAGR 30.90%HNB HNB 2014 IQOS 23Q4 26.7%+3.1pcts 7.1%+0.9pct 17.3%+2.7pcts IQOS 24Q2 UDM UMS+ODM UDM UMS-Based Original Design Manufacture 2022 2022 43.45-38%6.93-37%PMI%314 6.2 1714.4 2.3 1356.9 2.1%1m 6m 12m-2.6-13.7-26.0-10.6-8.1-11.1 1 2024-02-26 2&2024 1 1 2024-02-24 3&2024-02-19 S1090521080001-40-30-20-10010Feb/23 Jun/23 Oct/23 Jan/24(%)轻工纺服 沪深300 IQOS 2 HNB.5 1 HNB.5 2 HNB PMI.6 UDM.11 1.11 2.11 3 UDM.13 4.16 5.18 6 PMI.20.21 1.5 2().5 3.5 4 2022.5 5 HNB.6 6().7 7 IQOS.7 8 PMI HNB.7 9 HNB.8 10 PMI.8 11 PMI HNB.9 12 IQOS.10 13 PMI HNB().10 14 2023 PMI HNB(%).10 15 IQOS.11 XVCXuNtOmPmNqOnOnQsNnM8O8Q9PnPrRsQnReRqQnOfQrRmN7NrRvNwMtQqONZrMnR 3 16 IQOS(23Q4).11 17.11 18.12 19 UDM.14 20 UDM.14 21.15 22.15 23.16 24.16 25.16 26.16 27().17 28 2022(%).17 29.17 30 2022(%).17 31.17 32.17 33.18 34.18 35 ROE(%).18 36 ROE.18 37.19 38 2022.19 39.20 40 IQOS ILUMA.20 1 HNB.6 2 HNB.7 3 IQOS.8 4 IQOS ILUMA.8 5.12 4 6 2018.13 7 2021.13 8.14 9.19 10.21 5 HNB 1 HNB 2022 919.82 CAGR 8.20%;724.28 CAGR 14.79%1 2()Euromonitor International Euromonitor International HNB 2019 2020 HNB 2023 193 4.94%24.16%2023 HNB 469.49 30.90%58.63%3 4 2022-5%0%5%10%15%20%02004006008001,0001,200()YoY(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%02004006008001,0002014201520162017201820192020202120222023()YoY(%)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202118%34%42%7%6 5 HNB Euromonitor International 1 HNB VAPE HNB CBD HNB diy 8%5%9%14%HRT 2 HNB PMI HNB IQOS HNB HNB HNB 2005 IQOS 2014 IQOS HNB IQOS 2023 4.7%+0.6pct 26.7%+3.1pcts 7.1%+0.9pct 17.3%+2.7pcts-30%20%70%120%01002003004002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()HNB()YoY(%)HNB YoY(%)7 6()PMI 2 HNB IQOS 500-1000 2022 218.3 28.4 14.9%Glo 200-400 2022 48 25.6%Ploon Tech 300-500 2022 15.8 10.3%LIL KTMG 500-700 IQOS 10%IQOS IQOS 2023Q4 IQOS 2860 73%IQOS 2023 HNB 125.34+26%CAGR 25.07%HNB IQOS 2030 7 IQOS 8 PMI HNB PMI PMI 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%PMI()0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05101520253035IQOS()YoY(%)IQOS(%)0%10%20%30%40%0501001502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023PMI HNB()YoY(%)8 9 HNB 10 PMI PMI PMI IQOS IQOS ILUMA IQOS 3 IQOS IQOS 2.2 2014 IQOS 2.4 2016+20:4 10:120 IQOS 2.4 PLUS 2018+20:4 10:120 IQOS 3 2018+20:3 30:120 IQOS 3 MULTI 2018 10:78 10 IQOS 3 DUO 2019+20:1 50:120 2 IQOS ILUMA 2021+20:135 2 IQOS ILUMA PRIME 2021+20:135 2 IQOS ILUMA one 2021 20:90 20 PMI 4 IQOS ILUMA IQOS ILUMA IQOS ILUMA PRIME IQOS ILUMA one-20%0%20%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023PMI(%)PMI HNB(%)9 2 2 20 135 135 90 121.5 121.6 117.2 47 30.6 44.7 23.4 16.4 22.2 30.5 30 5 68.5 116.5 141 PM IQOS HNB 2020 5 IQOS PMTA FDA 7 MRTP 2021 24 Q2 IQOS PMTA MRTP 2023 10 FDA ILUMA PMTA MRTP 25 2022 Altria Group Inc.IQOS 2024 IQOS 11 PMI HNB PMI 0%10%20%30%40%50%0.0500.01,000.01,500.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023PMI HNB()yoy 10 12 IQOS IQOS 2023/PMI HNB 55.61/13.08/35.25 HNB 44.37%/10.44%/28.12%HNB HNB 23Q4 IQOS 27.60%23Q4 IQOS 9.60%IQOS 70 13 PMI HNB()14 2023 PMI HNB(%)PMI PMI 051015202530354045502021 2022 2023 PMI Swedish Match44.37%10.44%28.12%0.60%16.48%PMI Swedish Match 11 15 IQOS 16 IQOS(23Q4)PMI PMI UDM 1 2011+UDM(ODM)22 PMI Cricut WIK(Nestle)Venture 3Dconnexion Asetek 17 2 53.26%0%10%20%30%-1%0%1%2%3%4%0%5%10%15%20%23Q4(%)YoY(pcts)12 12.35%18 5;2004;2005;2005;2007 Malata Holdings Limited 2004 NWING;2011 2022()();2011 2019 2011;2011 2015;2011(CICPA)(ACCA)2010;2016 13 2018 291()597 1.31%2021 400.7470 0.87%449()2022 6 2018 2015-2017 2018 51%165 23.60 0.0515%2015-2017 2019 88%267 68.18 0.1488%2015-2017 2020 109%260 112.6896 0.1442%(A)/(B)100%(C)80%(D)0%7 2021 2018-2020 2021 40%2018-2020 2022 50%2018-2020 2023 60%(A)/(B)100%(C)80%(D)0%3 UDM UMS+ODM UDM UMS-Based Original Design Manufacture UMS ERP OA PLM CRM HR WiKi 14 19 UDM 20 UDM UDM ODM UDM ODM UMS UMS ITTS UDM 2022 31%+1pcts UDM 8 22()yoy 5 CAGR 22 22 3D Venture PMI Circut 10.20-5%9%23%28%6pcts TWS 3D Connexion WIK Nestle Asetek 22.36-48%5%51%31%1pcts 2.77-57%6%-15 OBD 3.60 52%49%8%-PMI 0.96-5%29%2%-UMS Circuit 3.57-49%35%8%-37.34-43%9%86%30%2pcts 6.12 9%46%14%33%2pcts 1300 2022 208 19 150 39 10 ODM 21 22 iFind iFind Cricut Asetek WIK 80%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)0%2%4%6%8%10%0.01.02.03.04.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3()(%)16 23 24 Wind 4 2022 43.45-38%2018-2022 11.83%;6.93-37%2018-2022-3.92%2022 23Q3 11.17+3.20%1.3-32%25 26 2022 22.36/10.20 51%/23%2018-2022 4.93%/9.17%/2022 2.77/3.06/0.96 6%/8%/2%2022/37.34/6.12 86%/14%30%/33%+2pcts/+2pcts-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)(pcts)-100%0%100%200%300%400%2016 2017 2018 2019Provo craft Venture Asetek WIK-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3()yoy(%)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3()yoy(%)17 27()28 2022(%)29 30 2022(%)2018-2022 2022/30.43%/16.30%+2.47pcts/+0.36pcts 2022/1.96%/4.52%/9.00%+0.69pcts/+0.43pcts/+3.20pcts 31 32-55152535452018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.47%51.47%6.37%8.29%2.20%8.21%-55152535452018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()()85.92%14.06%(%)(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3(%)(%)-5%0%5%10%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3(%)(%)(%)(%)18 33 34 ROE 2018-2022 ROE 10%-20%ROE ROE 35 ROE(%)36 ROE 5 UDM IQOS 5.65.866.26.46.66.877.27.41/2/18 1/2/19 1/2/20 1/2/21 1/2/22 1/2/23:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%0.00.51.01.52.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3()(%)19 37 38 2022 iFind iFind 2016 2018 2021 2022 2022 8.67 CAGR 149.67%9 2015 202000 2019 2020 23000 2018 2021 210000 2023 23Q4 0%2%4%6%8%10%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3(%)(%)(%)78%79%80%81%82%83%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021(%)(%)(%)20 39 iFind 6 PMI PMI 2014 Venture IQOS 2023 PMI 9 2024 40 IQOS ILUMA Beta Alpha 1 IQOS PMI IQOS 20%23 70%30%10%ILUMA One 70%ILUMA One 2 23 10 20%/50%-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()YoY(%)21 10 IQOS 2023E 2024E 2025E IQOS 出货量（万台）2000 2460 3075 yoy-23%25%四代占比 70%80%90%三代占比 30%20%10%四代中 iluma one 销售占比 70%70%70%iluma one 出货量（万台）980 1378 1937 1 HNB IQOS 2 3 HNB 22 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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