资源描述
Table_Industry/2024 3 3 有色金属 下 游 补 库与 供 给收 缩 预期 共振，碳 酸锂 期 货价 格 大幅 上涨 Table_Main Table_Title S0740522090002 Email S0740521110004 Email S0740517080003 Email Table_Profit 131()25,101.53()22,207.24-Table_Report SMM SMM Table_Summary 1.SQM 24 5-10%17.85-18.70 22-23 3 36.57/9.68%24 1 14 92.0%2.1 2 3+3.LC2407 19.03%6.19%5.63%6.27%3.74%SHFE 0.69%LME 2.49%4.1 1 2023 12 53GW 144.24%1-12 216.88GW148.12%2 24 1 78.7 72.9 85.3%78.8%36.5%12.11 25%3 24 1 65.2GWh,16.1%68.0%1.78 4 2024 1 20.20+6.32%5.64+5.92%+17.71%14.56+6.47%+73.55%5.LC2407 19.03%11.95/6.19%3 SMM 81137+1218 Cattlin 24 13 23 20.5 NAL PB 6.6.27%3-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02 300-2-36.57/9.68%23 20%+7.7.55/9.04/8.SHFE 21.77/0.89%LME 26,390/0.13%2024 2 7 30%20%20%RKAB 9.0YDWxOmRtQoPtNsRmRoRqR7NdNaQsQrRmOmQiNpPpMfQqQmQ7NnNvNvPmQrNvPrQmP-3-1.-4-1.1.-4-1.2.-4-2.-5-2.1 12.-5-2.2 1.-6-2.3 1.-7-2.4.-9-3.-10-4.-15-5.-16-6.RKAB.-17-7.-18-8.-19-9.-21-4-1.1.1 2.07%300 1.38%0.72%0.16%8.62%2.34%3.28%1.2 6.19%5.63%MB 13.35/MB 1 Wind 2 Wind-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%300 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%-5-1.54%16.50/0.91%22.15/6.27%35.85/3.74%180.00/4.13%522.50/2.2.1 12 3 Wind 13.50 0.00%0.00%-14.96%-47.37%16.43 0.00%-0.15%-4.78%-36.58%6.05 0.83%0.83%-13.57%-69.60%22.15 0.91%0.00%-19.75%-35.80%20.25 0.00%-1.46%-13.83%-44.14%3.25 0.00%0.00%-17.20%-47.15%13.15 0.00%0.00%-18.83%-44.86%8.4 0.00%0.00%-16.50%-49.85%4.0 0.00%0.00%-21.39%-44.76%13.1 0.00%0.00%-17.61%-44.73%75.0 0.00%0.00%-37.50%-74.58%9.6 6.11%6.11%-41.77%-80.23%10.30 6.19%6.19%-40.80%-79.53%8.20 5.81%5.81%-45.33%-82.75%9.38 5.63%5.63%-43.49%-80.90%6.9 0.15%0.15%-11.95%-35.98%7.7 0.00%0.00%-14.48%-36.30%17.3 0.00%0.58%-18.78%-59.77%11.0 2.33%2.33%-30.60%-66.18%12.6 0.80%0.80%-29.01%-63.82%7.6 0.00%4.14%10.22%17.05%9.0 0.00%4.04%11.05%15.87%8.0 0.00%4.58%12.68%17.65%1.9-4.08%-6.05%-16.26%-22.39%3395.0 1.19%2.41%5.60%27.15%22.3 0.45%0.90%1.36%22.87%1.5-0.99%-4.33%-4.22%-27.24%0.7-0.21%-0.34%-6.91%-14.31%5.1 0.00%0.00%-7.27%-40.70%APT 18.4 0.55%1.66%2.79%3.95%12.6 0.80%2.45%4.15%7.26%17.7 1.15%6.01%3.52%12.78%33.2 1.22%4.41%3.11%21.65%8.5-5.59%-10.58%-7.14%-24.89%9.8-2.50%-7.14%-2.99%-21.37%18.5 0.00%0.00%-9.76%-22.92%1.7 0.00%4.69%0.00%-14.10%35.9-6.27%-9.81%-31.52%-39.49%180.0-3.74%-6.49%-32.96%-17.24%2.4 0.00%0.00%4.35%-4.00%2.1 0.00%-4.55%-40.00%-57.58%-6-12 2023 12 53GW 144.2%148.6%2023 1-12 216.88GW 55.2%4 GW 5 GW 2.2 1 1 1 78.7 72.9 85.3%78.8%32.9%38.8%36.5%6 7 1 23 24 1 12.11 25%8 9%01020304050601-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020年 2021年 2022 年 20230501001502002501-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020年 2021年 2022年 20230204060801001201401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0204060801001201401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-7-24 1 10.53-25.36%+3.26%9.8%10 11%autosinnovate autosinnovate 2.3 1 2024 1 65.2GWh,16.1%68.0%22.7GWh-9.1%+82.8%34.8%42.4GWh-19.2%+60.7%65.0%2024 1 32.3GWh 100.2%32.6%19.7GWh 60.9%84.2%37.1%12.6GWh 39.0%131.9%23.9%12 Gwh 13 GWh 0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 0%20%40%60%80%100%24年1 月电 动车 渗透 率0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600002019-05-012019-09-012020-01-012020-05-012020-09-012021-01-012021-05-012021-09-012022-01-012022-05-012022-09-012023-01-012023-05-012023-09-012024-01-01BEV+PHEV0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%2019-05-012019-08-012019-11-012020-02-012020-05-012020-08-012020-11-012021-02-012021-05-012021-08-012021-11-012022-02-012022-05-012022-08-012022-11-012023-02-012023-05-012023-08-012023-11-01渗透率-8-1 2024 1 20.20+6.32%5.64+5.92%+17.71%14.56+6.47%+73.55%14 15 16 Wind 0204060801002019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-11-100102030405060LFP 010000200003000040000500006000070000800001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240500001000001500002000002500001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240.000.501.001.502.002.502019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12-9-17/Wind 2.4 Canalys 23 Q4 8%3.2 PC 2023 Q4 3%6530 1 2024 1 5210+22.01%-10.17%18 19 Wind 20 21 PC 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00/0500100015002000250030003500400045001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230200040006000800010000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024-10-IDC IDC 3.LC2407 19.03%11.95/10.30/6.19%9.38/5.63%1 9575 11.34%2 3 3 3 1 SMM 81137+1218 46251 16017 18869 4 1.06/5 2024 1 140310 92.0%60.6%22/23/24/25-/-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%012345全球智能手机出货量（亿 台）同比（%）-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0.00.20.40.60.81.0全球PC 出货量（亿台）同比（%）010203040506070/010203040506070/-11-26 27 28 29 SMM 30 31-0200040006000800010000120001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522020 2021 2022 2023 2024010002000300040005000600070001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522020 2021 2022 2023 2024050001000015000200002500030000350001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522020 2021 2022 2023 2024-12-Wind Mysteel 32 33 Greenbushes 23 Q4 35.8-14%27.5-30%23Q4 FOB 3016/24 1 M-1Fastmarkets Asian Metals Benchmark Minerals Intelligence S&P Platts FY24 23H2-24H1 140-150 130-140 Mt Cattlin 23 Q4 6.98 6.0 850/SC6 5.3%24 13 23 7.5 Marion 23Q4 16.60+29.69%17.2+34%3.7%4.2%40%SC6 12 738/SC6 1060/23H2 FOB 548/SC6 844/555/1150-1250/7 500/329/Pilbara 23Q4 17.60+22%15.99+9%SC6.0 1280/CIF 523/Wodgina 23Q4 11.5+2%14.20500010000150002000025000300001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 202405000100001500020000250001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2024-13-+129%Q3 5.8%23H2 FOB 845/SC6 875/575/875-950/550/361/25 24 1 Core 23Q4 28887+39.60%60%30718 SC4.8%24 23H2-24H1 8-9 FY24 9.0-9.5 8.0-9.0 9.0-10.0 34 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 环比 同比 Greenbushes 361000 379000 356000 395000 414000 358000-13.53%-5.54%Marion 108000 121000 120000 120000 128000 166000 29.69%37.19%Cattlin 17606 16404 38915 58059 72549 69789-3.80%325.44%Pilbara 147105 162151 148131 162761 144184 175969 22.04%8.52%Wodgina 64000 92000 110000 102500 112500 115000 2.22%25.00%Finniss 3589 14685 20692 28887 39.60%-Bald Hill 26000 合计 697711 770555 776635 853005 891925 939645 5.35%21.9%资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 Sigma 23Q3 38823 5.7%38000 2488/9 2 Sigma 24 51 24Q1 35 Sigma 单位 23Q3 产量 吨 38823 品位%5.70%销量 吨 38000 均价 美元/吨 2488 现金成 本 FOB 美元/吨 577 Olaroz 23 Q4 4144-7%6991+54%13564/17500 25000 24 40%1 36 Olaroz 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 同比 环比 产量（吨）2,972 3,445 3289 4253 4102 5059 4453 4144-3%-7%销量（吨）3,157 3,440 3721 3131 2904 3430 4554 6991 123%54%销售均价（美元/吨）27,236 41,033 40317 46706 52738 38062 25981 13564-71%-48%Livent Q4 Q3 Phase1A -14-1 24 75%7500 LCE Arcadium Lithium 24 5.5-7.5 Livent Fenix Phase1B Sal de Vida 2.25-3.25 6-9 37 Livent 资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 SQM 2023Q4 5.13 18%1.54/48%23 17 24 5-10%17.85-18.70 22-23 38 SQM 资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 2023 35%24 10-20%0100002000030000400005000060000700000102030405060销量（千吨）销售价（美元/吨，右轴）-15-39 资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 4.6.27%35.85/3.74%180.00/4.13%522.50/3 36.57/9.68%24 13.5 REO+1.5 13%23 6%12.49+1.58 14%23 6%1.01-803-7%23 6%12.7+1.2+10%23 9.8%1 12 4660 REO 26.69%2 12 5,615.53 60%REO 3369+24.13%+20.97%1 Lynas 23Q4 REO 1566-57%-65%901-40%-41%2 Mt Pass 23 Q4 9257 7174 150 1 6056+1.58%40/41：N35/-16-5.MB 13.50/MB 16.43/22.15/+0.91%3.25/1 2023 12 1.39+15%+33%24 6.0-7.0 23 5.55 2 44 MB 45/01020304050-20020406080-/MB/0.005.0010.0015.0020.00-20020406080价差（硫酸钴-金属钴）金属钴（万元/吨）硫酸钴（万元/吨）资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 42：43：资料来 源：海关 总署、百 川资 讯、中 泰证券 研究 所 资料来 源：海关 总署、百 川资 讯、中 泰证券 研究 所 0204060801001202021/06 2021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12氧化镨钕市场价(万元/吨)050100150200250300350 N35 0100020003000400050006000混合碳酸稀土-缅甸 未列名氧化物 稀土金属化合物020004000600080001000012000140001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023-17-46/47/Wind 6.RKAB RKAB SHFE 13.78/2.65%LME 0.23%17440/LME+Shfe 4741 88302 1 2024 1&14.86 2.2%8.2%2 2024 1 2.27 50.32%6.88%2024 1 43 274.1 22.26 7.51%14.86%200 68.07 19.73 22.47%13.75%300 153.02 9.68 5.95%-20-1001020304050607080-/48：SHFE/49：LME/资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 50：51：SHFE&LME 800001000001200001400001600001800002000002200002400002600002800002018-06-302018-10-312019-02-282019-06-302019-10-312020-02-292020-06-302020-10-312021-02-282021-06-302021-10-312022-02-282022-06-302022-10-312023-02-282023-06-302023-10-312024-02-29SHFE 800018000280003800048000580002018-04-262018-08-262018-12-262019-04-262019-08-262019-12-262020-04-262020-08-262020-12-262021-04-262021-08-262021-12-262022-04-262022-08-262022-12-262023-04-262023-08-262023-12-26期货官方价:LME3 个月镍 美元/吨-18-7.7.55/0.67%9.04/1.13%1310+23.58%1120+14.29%4200+3.96%7670+1.59%资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 52：53：资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 54：/55：/05001000150020002018-10-262019-02-262019-06-262019-10-262020-02-262020-06-262020-10-262021-02-262021-06-262021-10-262022-02-262022-06-262022-10-262023-02-262023-06-262023-10-262024-02-26镍矿:港口库存:总计 周 万吨-19-8.SHFE 21.77/0.89%LME 26,390/0.13%SHFE+LME 109 16,087 2024 1 5500-5.17%2024 1 14600-4.45%12 16405.254 3322.06-23.19%-41.14%13055.709-36.54%-16.69%资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 56：57：资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 58：SHFE/59：LME/0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002016-05-092016-10-092017-03-092017-08-092018-01-092018-06-092018-11-092019-04-092019-09-092020-02-092020-07-092020-12-092021-05-092021-10-092022-03-092022-08-092023-01-092023-06-092023-11-09/0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.002016-05-162016-10-162017-03-162017-08-162018-01-162018-06-162018-11-162019-04-162019-09-162020-02-162020-07-162020-12-162021-05-162021-10-162022-03-162022-08-162023-01-162023-06-162023-11-16锑锭（万元/吨）02000400060008000100002020/1/3 2021/1/3 2022/1/3 2023/1/3 2024/1/3锑锭库存0200040006000800010000120002020/1/3 2021/1/3 2022/1/3 2023/1/3 2024/1/3三氧化二锑库存-20-资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 60：Mysteel 61：SHFE&LME 资料来 源：Mysteel、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 62：63：资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 64：锡锭进口量（吨）65：0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000002018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-062023-1201000020000300004000050000600002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023期货官方价:LME3 个月锡02000400060008000100001200014000160002021-12-222022-02-222022-04-222022-06-222022-08-222022-10-222022-12-222023-02-222023-04-222023-06-222023-08-222023-10-222023-12-222024-02-22锡锭：库存：中国（周）050001000015000200002018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-062023-12LME 库存 SHFE 库存02000400060008000100001200012 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2024 2023 20222021 2020 20190200040006000800010000120001400016000180001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020-21-66 Wind 9.-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%01020304050602001-082002-032002-102003-052003-122004-072005-022005-092006-042006-112007-062008-012008-082009-032009-102010-052010-122011-072012-022012-092013-042013-112014-062015-012015-082016-032016-102017-052017-122018-072019-022019-092020-042020-112021-062022-012022-082023-032023-10半导体:销售额:合计:当月值 半导体:销售额:合计:当月同比 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 01000200030004000500060002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09锡锭进口量050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09锡精矿进口量-22-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500
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