20230103_国海证券_POE行业深度报告之一：多领域推动需求高增国内加快产业化进程_61页.pdf

POE()()()S0350521080004 S0350521080009 S()2023 01 02 2*2022-05-27*2021-09-09 300 2022/12/30 1M 3M 12M-4.4%-0.5%-18.4%300 0.5%1.8%-18.6%3 2022/12/30 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E600309.SH 92.65 7.85 5.46 7.95 12.87 16.98 11.66 002648.SZ 15.50 3.50 1.26 2.18 11.44 12.31 7.10 000301.SZ 13.04 0.76 0.38 1.31 25.45 34.42 9.98 002493.SZ 12.30 1.27 0.71 1.46 14.30 17.29 8.41 603255.SH 44.90 1.31 0.88 1.49 51.22 30.22 000990.SZ 8.80 0.80 0.32 0.36 19.66 27.28 24.42 Wind Wind 4POE POE POE-POE 2022 POE POP 180/POE 1000/POE 40/1000/-10/POE 800/POE 2022 9 20/-30/POE 35/-40/POE 2022-2025 POE 180.5 190.5 210.5 230.5 84%89%91%93%POE POE POE 2017 104 2021 136 6.9%POE 2017 22.1 2021 63.5 30%POE POE 2022-2025 POE 151 169 191 215 12.1%2024 POE POE POE POE 5 Wind CPIA PO E Wind CPIA LG 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E产能（万吨）180.5 180.5 190.5 210.5 230.5开工率 75%84%89%91%93%全球需求量（万吨）136.0 151.2 169.3 191.5 215.1 汽车 73.8 78.6 83.8 89.3 95.2光伏 15.7 24.7 36.2 51.4 67.6发泡改性 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.4电线电缆 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3其他 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.72021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E产能（万吨）20 40开工率 90%90%产量（万吨）18.0 36.0净进口量（万吨）63.5 74.9 89.7 90.4 92.3国内需求量（万吨）63.5 74.9 89.7 108.4 128.3汽车 24.0 25.6 28.1 30.9 33.9光伏 15.1 23.6 34.6 49.2 64.7发泡改性 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.7电线电缆 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.7其他 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 6POE POE POE 71.PO E 1.1 POE POE-1-1-1-POE 1.2 POE POE 1993 POE 1.3 POE-POE-1-1-1-POE 2015 1000/POE 81.1 TPE Tf Tf SBS TPOs TPU 91.1 TPE TPE TPE TPE TPE TPE TPE SBS-TPOs TPO EPDM NBR IIR PP PE-EVA 20%-40%TPV EPDM NR SBR PP PE 60%-80%-POE-101.1 PO E-POE-1-1-1-1-A 1-B POE-A B 111.1 PO E-POE POE POE POE POE POE/BR POE 20%-30%0.865-0.895g/cm3 POE PP PE POP POE/121.2 PO E 2020 2019 2015 2014 2009 2005 1994 1993 Insite POE POE POE SABIC SK SSNC POE 1000/POE POE POE POE 1993 POE POE 131.3 PO E 1-1-1-POE POE POE POE POE-C4-POE 141.3.1 PO E POE POE Sclairtech SCC Z-N LLDPE POE CGC POE EPDM POE/g/cm3)105-320 Sclairtech Z-N SSC LLDPE 0.9050.967 50-250/0.850.93 100 CGC POE 0.850.92 151.3.1 973 POE CGC/1-/1-POE 1-1-Aspen 1000/POE 2015 11 4 1000/POE 1000/POE 161.3.2-PO E-POE-1-1-1-HDPE LLDPE POP POE POE 1-POE POP LLDPE HDPE-1-1-1-171.3.2 C4/C6-C8 1-1-1 1 Chevron Phillips 2007 1 1 66%Sasol 1-1000-700 1-C4-C8 C6-C8 C6-C10 C8-C12-(PAO)C10-C16 C16-18 C20-30+-181.3.3 PO E POE-1-2-1,2-2,1-191.3.3 POE CGC-N-POE 1993 Engage CGC 1995 Exact Exxpol 2003 Tafmer LG 2008 Lucene SABIC SKNexleneCompany 2014 Frotify SK 2013 Queo POE 201.3.3 PO E POE 973 POE POE 2020 POE Li 2017-1-(1-2mol/L 13.6%)2017 FI-1-1-4.9%Xie 2017 MMAO-2018 FI 1-50%2018 CGC/1-1-7.8%Song 2019/1-122.1-1-5.97%2020 CGC-1-9.1%1-8.84%21POE POE POE 222.PO E 2.1 POE 2022 POE POP 180/LG SK 2.2 POE POE 1000/POE 40/POE 1000/-10/POE 800/2022 9 2022 8 40/POE 2.3 1-1-1-1-1000/-700 1-35/-1-232.1 PO E POE LG 2022 POE POP 180/LG SK/POE POPEngage Affinity Infuse Intune 20.0 16.0 5.5 22.0 POEExact Vistamaxx Exceed 8.0 30.0 POE POP Tafmer Notio 5.0 20.0 SSNC SABIC-SK POE POPSolumer Fortify Cohere 23.0 LG POE Lucene 28.0 POE POP Queo 3.0 180.5 242.2 PO E POE POE 1000/POE 40/POE 1000/-10/POE 800/2022 9 2022 11 30 20/-30/POE 2022 8 40/POE/40 1000/2024 40 2 10 2024 30 800 2022 9 11 30 30 POE 10 10 2025 5 1000 2022 9 5 5 2020 5,2025 20 2022 8 3 40 2022 12 5 170 252.2 1-C4-1-C4 C4 1-1-1-/C4 36.8 C4 3.0 C4 17.4 C4 2.0 C4 5.0 C4 3.5 C4 2.0 84.7 C4 0.8 C4 4.0 C4 4.0 C4 3.0 C4 2.0 C4 1.6 C4 4.2()C4 1.6 C4 2.0 C4 1.7 C4 2.0 11.9 96.6 262.2 1-1-2007 1 2022 4 8000/-1-/5 0.5 2 2 0.03 2022 Q4 0.8 2022 4 5 2021 12 13 272.2 1-1 1000/-700 1-35/-1-2022 11 20/-2021 8 3000 1-1-5000/1-2500/1300+1-2500/1-/0.07 35 35 20 20 0.25 2021 8 1-1-CN114988980A 2022.09.02 1-1-CN113441185A 2021.09.28 1 CN110639459A 2020.01.03 28 2.3-38-10 19 2021 9 1000/POE 2022 9 120/2 20/POE 0.5-30g/10min 0.86-0.89g/cm3 A 50-90 2.5-28Mpa 600%120 2-37MU 40-85-6040 30-75 6-20 1.65-2.14 13-34%14-46Wt%POE POE-10 19 9 38 292.3-2021 12 28-1-1-2021 12 10-POE 2022 6 10 1000/-1 1000/-1000 1-700 1-300 12.5 106g/(mol Cr h)1-1-90%30 800/POE 2.3 PO E 2022 5 27 POE 800/POE 2.04 2022 9 POE Wallkan 1-2022 11 30 20/-30/POE t 6-18 200 180 160 100 100 60 31POE POE POE 323.PO E 3.1 POE POE 2017 104 2021 136 6.94%POE POE 2017 22.1 2021 63.5 30.2%3.2 POE POE POE POE 2021 15.7 2025 67.6 44.0%POE 2021 24.0 2025 33.9 9.1%3.3 POE POE 2022-2025 POE 151 169 191 215 12.1%2024 POE 333.1 PO E POE 2017 104 2021 136 6.94%POE POE 343.1 PO E POE POE 2017 22.1 2021 63.5 30.2%POE POE POE POE-353.2 PO E POE/363.2 PO E EVA POE EVA EVA PID POE EVA EVA POE POE EPE 2021 EVA 52%2020 4.7 2021 POE EOE 23.1%POE EVA EVA POE 20-2/day 2-2/day Tg-PID kV/cm 444 601 W/m-K 0.246 0.291%93%92%1.455 1.475 25000/27000/EVA PID EVA EVA 7-10W 1-3W POE PID PERC N POE POE PID EVA POE PERC N 373.2 PN N N P P PN P N P Positive N Negative P N 383.2 N P P P Si N Si N Si N Si P Si N P N 24.5%27.5%N N P N P wind N P N B 0.8 P 0.35 CZ 2030 s 1001000 s B-O B-O SiNx SiO2Al2O3 Al2O3SiNx SiO2 393.2 N PO E PVInfoLink 2022 TOPCon 20GW 2-3GW 7%TOPCon 2025 TOPCon 37%P N POE PID N N POE POE POE N PVInfoLink 403.2 PO E CPIA 2021 170 GW 2018 2019 2020 CPIA 2021 54.88GW 13.9%GW CPIA GW CPIA 0100200300400500600 020406080100120140160 413.2 PO E POE CPIA EPE POE EVA POE 1/3 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 170 255 330 420 500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GW 204 306 396 504 600 20.4 29.1 37.6 47.9 57.0POE 9.1%9.5%10.5%11.5%12.5%EPE 14.0%17.0%20.0%23.0%26.0%EPE POE 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3POE 13.8%15.2%17.2%19.2%21.2%POE/0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56POE 15.73 24.69 36.17 51.39 67.56 423.3/“100 6%-8%25 2.0 433.3 10%15%5%5%5%18%25%10%10%10%25%35%15%15%15%2025 2030 2035 2.3mm1.6mm 10%14%LAO POE 2.0 2035 35%2.0 443.3 1kg 2-3kg(POE)453.3 2020 2021-2035 2025 20%2025 3217 1121 35%PP 46%PA 8%PE 6%Wind 2021 463.3 PO E 2014 123/2020 171/2025 203/2021 462 2025 653 PP/PE POE PP/PE POE 10%2021 PP/PE 240 POE 24.0 2025 PP/PE 339 POE 33.9 Wind 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2811.9 2901.5 2780.9 2572.1 2522.5 2608.2 2686.7 2853.2 3031.1 3216.6 kg 137.3 145.0 153.2 161.9 171.0 177.0 183.1 189.5 196.1 202.9 386.0 415.0 417.3 418.7 431.3 461.5 492.0 540.7 594.4 652.7 PP/PE 200.7 215.8 217.0 217.7 224.3 240.0 255.8 281.2 309.1 339.4 POE 20.1 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.4 24.0 25.6 28.1 30.9 33.9 47 Wind CPIA 3.4 PO E Wind CPIA LG 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E产能（万吨）180.5 180.5 190.5 210.5 230.5开工率 75%84%89%91%93%全球需求量（万吨）136.0 151.2 169.3 191.5 215.1 汽车 73.8 78.6 83.8 89.3 95.2光伏 15.7 24.7 36.2 51.4 67.6发泡改性 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.4电线电缆 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3其他 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.72021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E产能（万吨）20 40开工率 90%90%产量（万吨）18.0 36.0净进口量（万吨）63.5 74.9 89.7 90.4 92.3国内需求量（万吨）63.5 74.9 89.7 108.4 128.3汽车 24.0 25.6 28.1 30.9 33.9光伏 15.1 23.6 34.6 49.2 64.7发泡改性 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.7电线电缆 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.7其他 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 48POE POE POE 494.POE POE POE Wind Wind 2022/12/30 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E600309.SH 92.65 7.85 5.46 7.95 12.87 16.98 11.66 002648.SZ 15.50 3.50 1.26 2.18 11.44 12.31 7.10 000301.SZ 13.04 0.76 0.38 1.31 25.45 34.42 9.98 002493.SZ 12.30 1.27 0.71 1.46 14.30 17.29 8.41 603255.SH 44.90 1.31 0.88 1.49 51.22 30.22 000990.SZ 8.80 0.80 0.32 0.36 19.66 27.28 24.42 504.1-38-10 19 2021 9 1000/POE POE POE 120/2 20/POE POE 40/MDI 180/MDI 60/25/TDI 85/2022 2024 2024 4.8/7.5/5/2023 2022 421.99 63.15%MDI 2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 145537.82 169706.32 191680.16 228602.12(%)98.19 16.61 12.95 19.26 24648.75 17129.71 24956.66 32460.37(%)145.47(30.50)45.69 30.07 7.85 5.46 7.95 10.34 ROE(%)35.98 20.00 22.57 22.69 P/E 12.87 16.98 11.66 8.96 P/B 4.63 3.40 2.63 2.03 P/S 2.18 1.71 1.52 1.27 EV/EBITDA 9.06 11.09 8.47 6.32 514.2-1000/-POE 2021 10-POE-C2 10/40/15/18 30 80 12 2023 5 30 11 20 2024 2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 28557.04 37921.90 51546.63 62224.47(%)165.09 32.79 35.93 20.71 6006.51 4243.16 7356.20 9393.80(%)261.62(29.36)73.37 27.70 3.50 1.26 2.18 2.79 ROE(%)31.02 16.80 22.56 22.36 P/E 11.44 12.31 7.10 5.56 P/B 3.56 2.07 1.60 1.24 P/S 2.41 1.38 1.01 0.84 EV/EBITDA 9.02 10.95 6.30 4.42 524.3 EV A POE 2022 9 800/POE EV A POE 2022 11 30 20/-30/POE 1600/11 12 3 20/EV A 1 10/EV A PTA 39.39 240/PTA EV A 2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 51,722.18 86,304.77 160,242.16 176,525.20(%)53.48 66.86 85.67 10.16 4,543.60 2,504.98 8,639.28 12,953.94(%)492.66-44.87 244.88 49.94 0.76 0.38 1.31 1.96 ROE(%)16.45 8.18 22.01 24.82 P/E 25.45 34.42 9.98 6.66 P/B 3.39 2.82 2.20 1.65 P/S 1.81 1.00 0.54 0.49 EV/EBITDA 16.75 13.38 6.82 4.72 534.4 30/EV A POE 2022 8 641 35/-2 20/POE POE 140/140/35/38/40/ABS 30/LDPE/EV A 10/EV A 40/LDPE 20/DMC 3 6/PMMA 30/EV A/LDPE 50/66 20/PBS 12/3/NMP 66/1178 164 2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 177,024.28 298,497.69 457,874.48 642,260.94(%)65.03 68.62 53.39 40.27 12,823.55 7,202.01 14,810.02 19,562.09(%)75.46-43.84 105.64 32.09 1.27 0.71 1.46 1.93 ROE(%)26.26 14.12 22.51 22.92 P/E 14.30 17.29 8.41 6.37 P/B 3.77 2.44 1.89 1.46 P/S 1.04 0.42 0.27 0.19 EV/EBITDA 8.16 8.59 3.44 2.04 544.5-POE 2022 12 98.68 POE 20/POE 30/-20/POE 25/5 2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 731.15 865.67 1,177.00 1,518.00(%)38.49 18.40 35.96 28.97 131.52 117.00 198.33 275.33(%)27.60-11.04 69.52 38.82 1.31 0.88 1.49 2.06ROE(%)17.92 9.31 13.61 16.09P/E-51.22 30.22 21.77 554.6 100/70%2022 8 40 2 10/POE 8 2 2/3 slichem”PDLC OLED D-20 D-2022.12.30 wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 12,183.92 12,880.00 13,837.00 14,912.00(%)25.20 5.71 7.43 7.77 1,008.44 392.00 438.00 488.00(%)184.01-61.13 11.73 11.42 0.80 0.32 0.36 0.40ROE(%)5.71 2.20 2.40 2.60P/E 19.66 27.28 24.42 21.91 56POE POE POE 57 58,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%7 7 2 4 1 5 3 2 59 R3“”“”/“”28F 518041 075583706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597 60 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告