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|2023 01 30/2022 14%A)2023 PHEV 2022 B)IRA 7500 IRA C):2023 30%10%30%7 IRA/21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 452.0 6.83 11 19.32 41 23 10 84.9 1.53 1.78 3.46 48 25 7 47.6 2.3 3.01 3.54 16 13 8 65.0 3.19 2.88 5.19 23 13 5 76.2 1.55 2.96 5.93 26 13 5 54.3 2.52 2.22 3.15 24 17 8 149.9 3.05 5.51 8 27 19 12 64.4 2.15 4 4.98 16 13 3 23.6 0.37 0.64 1.08 37 22 6 76.3 2.03 3.6 5.58 21 14 7 25.8-0.89-0.02 1.21-1288 21 2 48.4 0.93 2.71 3.21 18 15 7 82.3 2.79 5.4 6.15 15 13 4 253.4 8.97 12.48 16.15 20 16 10 139.1 2.33 4.15 6.59 34 21 6 Wind%292 6.0 69295 8.3 55518 7.8%1m 6m 12m 9.3-2.8 5.2 0.1-0.4 18.5 1 68 2023-01-10 2 67 2023-01-05 3 PET 66 2023-01-03 S1090515050001 S1090522070003-40-2002040Feb/22 May/22 Sep/22 Jan/23(%)电力设备及新能源 沪深300 101 2.4.16 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.10 5.10 6.11 7.13 8.13 9.14 10 LGES.16 11/.17 12/.17 13.19 14 2021.20 15.20 16.20 17.20 18.20 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.5 YWEVuNrMtQmNtNoNmRqPrQ6M9R9PoMmMsQnOfQqQqRlOnOqQ7NoPpPNZmPsONZmRzQ 3 6.6 7 EV.7 8 PHEV.7 9.8 10.8 11.9 12.9 13 IRA.10 14 IRA.10 15.11 16.13 17.13 18.14 19.14 20.14 21.16 22.16 23.17 24.17 25.17 26.19 27.21 4 2022 1000 62%2021 8%2022 13.5%1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 6.6 10.7 19.9 27.0 36.3 54.1 125.1 216.3 245.9 14%11.9 11.5 15.7 19.5 35.6 32.0 33.2 66.7 98.3 47%4.2 18.6 30.7 56.8 103.1 106.0 124.2 332.4 654.7 97%29.7 58.7 89.9 131.7 207.9 216.3 305.7 656.2 1064.0 62%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.5%0.7%1.3%1.7%2.2%3.3%10.0%17.4%20.9%3.6%0.7%0.6%0.9%1.1%2.0%1.8%2.2%4.3%6.9%2.6%0.2%0.8%1.1%2.0%3.7%4.1%4.9%12.7%24.4%11.7%0.3%0.7%1.0%1.4%2.2%2.4%4.0%8.2%13.5%5.3%Marklines 2020-2021 2021 17%2022 22 6 6-12-5.2%3.2%15.4%15.7%31.8%39.2%1 2 2020 1 1-2020 5 31 EV 45,000 6000 3000 45,000 60,000 3000 2020 6 1-2021 6 30 EV 45,000 7000 5000 5 45,000 60,000 3000 PHEV 50,000 2000 2021 7 1-2022 6 30 EV 45,000 6000 4000 45,000 60,000 2000 PHEV 50,000 1000 2022 6 30 EV 45,000 5000 3000 45,000 60,000 1000 3 2023-2025 EV 40,000 4500 40,000 65,000 3000 PHEV 2020 6 30 2022-2022 EV 40,000 6000 3000 3000 40,000 65,000 5000 2500 2500 PHEV 40,000 5000 2500 2500 40,000 65,000 4750 2250 2500 2020 7 1-2021 12 31 EV 40,000 9000 6000 3000 40,000 65,000 7500 5000 2500 PHEV 40,000 6750 4500 2250 40,000 65,000 5625 3750 1875 4/2018 7 1 60000 25 2020 CO2 70g/km 60,000-833*CO2 g/km 2020 CO2 70g/km 60,000-714*CO2 g/km 2021 EV 6 7 2022 11 8 5/%2020 7 1-2021 12 31 1.2-4.5 4000 2022 3350 2023 2950 2024 2025 2550 6 2 ICCT 6 25 BEV 20%300 2030 50%600 30 35%350 30 100 100%30 100%Stellantis 30 500 100%50%2038 25 50%30 100%PHEV 25 20%25 30 50%MINI 27 25 BEV PHEV 50%30 100%39 26 75%+55%+40%+30 40%50%25 65%30 90%30 30 200 EV FCV 30 40%,35 80%40 100%30 BEV HEV 25 106 BEV 56 50 30 BEV 120 30%40 80%25 100 35 2040 2030 2000 1500GWh 2023 2023 40 2022 9 Plus SIXT 10 WEY 15 ES8 ET7 EL7 ET5 2022 50 27 9 2023 2023 7 2022 62%10 PHEV 2023 PHEV 23 70%3 eu-evs 7 EV 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-11 Model 3 93884 ZOE 98783 Model 3 134277 Model Y 103111 ZOE 46649 Model 3 82122 ZOE 73465 Model 3 68921 Leaf 31086 ID.3 54875 ID.3 67778 Fiat 500 56652 BMW i3 31022 Kona 42893 ID.4 53525 ID.4 50360 Golf 26630 Audi e-tron 34513 NIRO 42928 Enyaq iV 42888 Kona 19606 Golf 34237 Enyaq iV 42151 Peugeot 208 41057 Audi e-tron 18073 Peugeot 208 31213 Fiat 500 41625 ID.3 40668 I-Pace 11999 Leaf 29956 Peugeot 208 40791 Kona 36212 NIRO 11292 NIRO 28082 Kona 40408 Audi Q4 e-tron 34341 fortwo 10490 BMW i3 22519 up!38443 ZOE 32796 Marklines 8 PHEV 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-11 Outlander 31739 BMW 3 Series 31472 Kuga 43249 Kuga 43488 XC60(Volvo Cars)15507 Passat(Santana)25800 XC40(Volvo Cars)38675 3 Series 28177 BMW 5 Series 12683 Outlander 24580 Peugeot 3008 36715 XC40(Volvo Cars)26968 BMW 2 Series 11826 XC40(Volvo Cars)23981 BMW 3 Series 35598 Tucson(ix35)24976 E-Class 11251 GLC-Class(GLK-Class)23501 GLC-Class(GLK-Class)35115 Peugeot 3008 23964 Countryman 10787 XC60(Volvo Cars)23349 XC60(Volvo Cars)30569 XC60(Volvo Cars)22655 BMW 3 Series 9342 E-Class 21219 A-Class 28988 CUPRA Formentor 21789 XC90(Volvo Cars)8806 A-Class 20906 Tucson(ix35)27293 GLC-Class(GLK-Class)21076 NIRO 7959 C-Class 18795 Audi A3 25214 Eclipse Cross 19791 Cayenne 5177 Kuga 18065 BMW X1 24235 BMW X5 19625 Marklines 8 9 车企 车型 信息 Audi Audi Q8 e-tron Q8 e-tron 89 kWh 50 106 kWh 55 S 50 491 305 55 582 362 S 494 307 Audi Q8 Sportback e-tron 89 kWh 106 kWh WLTP 50 505 313 55 600 373 S 513 319 Audi Q6 e-tron 600 373 WLTP Audi Q6 Sportback e-tron BMW BMW i5 80.7kWh EPA-est.300 Cadillac Cadillac Celestiq 111 kWh GM-est.300 Chevrolet Chevrolet Blazer EV LT 247 2LT 293 RS 320 SS 290 Chevrolet Equinox EV 250 300 Chevrolet Silverado EV 400+Fiat New Fiat 500e 21.3 kWh 37.3 kWh 10 7+4 NEV 20%2021 2022 1 EV EV 2022 9 7.2 PLUS 3.8 2021 9 ES8 ET7 2022 2022 2025 25 2022 2022 2023 2-3 50%G3 2020 P5 2022 3 2022 2-3 2022 3 Emil Frey NV Bilia 2021 V S 2022 2.0 2022 2020 80 NEV 2022 2 2022 6 FREE 2022 9 7 2021 4 1.4 87%1.6 2021 5 1.2 98%1.2 2021 6 0.5 71%0.7 2021 7 2.4 80%3.0 2021 8 3.1 85%3.7 2021 9 0.4 38%1.0 2021 10 4.1 85%4.8 2021 11 2.1 83%2.5 2021 12 0.0 3%0.7 2022 1 4.0 87%4.7 2022 2 3.3 84%4.0 2022 3 0.0 1%0.5 2022 4 0.0 0%0.5 2022 5 2.2 77%2.9 2022 6 0.1 8%1.2 2022 7 2.0 53%3.7 2022 8 4.2 67%6.3 2022 9 0.6 21%2.7 2022 10 5.5 63%8.7 2022 11 3.8 46%8.2 2022 12 1.4 19%7.4 8 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E EV kwh 50 50 52 54 55 55 PHEV kwh 12 12 12 13 15 15 EV()20.4 35.4 70.3 117.7 152.2 205.5 YOY 49.1%73.7%98.5%67.5%29.3%35%PHEV 15.8 17.7 54.8 98.8 93.8 93.8 YOY 19.9%12.1%209.1%80.2%-5.1%0 EV 56%67%56%54%62%69%36.2 53.1 125.1 216.5 246.0 299.3 YOY 34.7%46.8%135.4%73.1%13.6%21.7%(GWh)12.09 19.83 43.12 76.41 97.79 127.09 YOY 45.9%64.0%117.5%77.2%28.0%30.0%Marklines IRA IRA 8 2023 IRA 7500 7%2020 2020-2021 IRA 2023 3 12 IRA Q1 10 4 5 Marklines Marklines 9 IRA 2020-2021 2021 11 19 117 220-213 2022 8 6 2022 2022 8 7 51 50 2022 8 16 10 IRA 项目 政策条件 备注 7500 7 kwh 3750 2024 40%2024 50%2025 60%2026 70%2027 80%3750 2024 50%2024-2025 60%2026 70%2027 80%2028 90%2029 100%battery components 1 2 3 1 2024 12 31 2 2023 12 31 owned by,controlled by,or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of a government of a foreign country that is a covered nation 11 A B C D SUV/8 5.5 20 15 22.5 30 IRA 20 28 6 11 6k Inc$50,000,000 NMC 811 3,000/(LFP)2025,2026 10,000/Albemarle U.S.Inc.$149,658,312 350,000 5.5-6.0%Li2O 75 American Battery Technology Company$57,744,831 5000,30,000/Amprius$50,000,000 MWh 12 Anovion LLC$117,000,000 35,000,Applied Materials Incorporated$100,000,000,(Li-ion)Ascend Elements$316,186,575(LiBs)CAM pCAM,250,000 Cirba Solutions$74,999,925 Cirba Solutions,200,000 ENTEk$200,000,000 1-18,140 Group14 Technologies Inc$100,000,000 2,000/(SCC55TM)ICL-IP America Inc$197,338,492 15,000 LFP 33 60 Koura.part of Orbia Fluorinated Solutions$100,000,000 Koura 10,000,100 Lilac Solutions$50,000,000 Microvast$200,000,000 19GWh EV,2GWh NOVONIX Anode Materials LLC$150,000,000,30,000 Piedmont Lithium Inc$141,680,442 3 2023,2025 Sila Nanotechnologies$100,000,000 2025 Sila,20GWh 2026,Sila,200,000 Solvay Specialty Polymers USA,LLC$178,218,568 500 Syrah Technologies LLC$219,820,610 Vidalia 11,250tpa 45,000tpa Talon Nickel(USA)LLC$114,846,344,2023 M3/Y 2-4.8 M3 23 3.6 13.5%MY 26 2.9 10.0%Model Y 1.3 IRA 2 30%1 2 22 1 3 IRA 2-3 ID model Y 30 ID.4 30%13 7 12 车系 车型 旧价格 新价格 2023-Jan-13 价格变动 价格变动%税收抵免 税收抵免后 价格 税收抵免后 价格变动 税收抵免后 价格变动%Model 3 Standard range RWD$46,990$43,990-$3,000-6.4%$7,500$36,490-$10,500-22.3%Performance$62,990$53,990-$9,000-14.3%$7,500$46,490-$16,500-26.2%Model Y Long Range AWD$65,990$52,990-$13,000-19.7%$7,500$45,490-$20,500-31.1%Performance$69,990$56,990-$13,000-18.6%$0$56,990-$13,000-18.6%13 车系 车型 旧价格 新价格 价格变动 价格变动%Model 3 SR+53,490 44,990-8,500-15.89%LR 62,490 52,990-9,500-15.20%P 66,490 59,990-6,500-9.78%Model Y SR+49,990 46,990-3,000-6.00%LR 64,990 53,990-11,000-16.93%P 69,990 63,990-6,000-8.57%8 Teslike 14 9 14 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.49 0.91 0.72 0.23 0.31 0.85 1.12-5.9-6.9-6.2-3.1-4.9-7.8-8.0-24.3-3.0-11.7-8.7-7.1-11.0-13.1-2.9-1.3-0.1 0.8 0.0-2.2 15 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 184,877 201,304 241,391 241,392 310,048 254,695 343,830 405,278 YoY 109%121%73%34%68%27%42%68%4.87 5.07 4.99 6.61 5.44 5.73 5.44 5.26 YoY-16%-11%-8%28%12%13%9%-21%3.58 3.63 3.47 4.59 3.65 4.13 3.92 3.89 YoY-17%-15%-12%17%2%14%13%-15%1.29 1.44 1.52 2.02 1.79 1.60 1.52 1.36 YoY-13%-1%1%63%38%11%0%-33%26.5%28.4%30.5%30.6%32.9%27.9%27.9%25.9%YOY 1%3%3%6%6%0%-3%-5%0.36 0.29 0.25 0.31 0.28 0.26 0.19 0.16 YoY-2%-7%-3%6%-23%-8%-23%-46%SG&A 0.57 0.48 0.41 0.62 0.32 0.38 0.28 0.24 YoY-19%-34%-35%15%-44%-22%-32%-62%0.34 0.34 0.32 0.35 0.28 0.36 0.27 0.23 YoY-46%-46%-25%3%-16%7%-15%-35%0.24 0.57 0.67 0.96 1.07 0.89 0.96 0.91 20 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1043.1 1416.1 1820.4 2243.4 15 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 60.4%35.8%28.5%23.2%650.5 869.2 1099.3 1329.1 YOY 95.8%33.6%26.5%20.9%100.0 185.0 277.5 388.5 YOY 50.0%85.0%50.0%40.0%254.2 305.1 366.1 421.0 YOY 15.0%20.0%20.0%15.0%1064.3 1451.4 1858.6 2289.9 YOY 60.6%35.1%28.1%23.2%Marklines 16 22 1TWh 80%70%7 LGES LGES 16 GWh 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-11 SDI 3.0 4.2 8.0 13.2 22.1 LGES 7.4 12.3 31.0 60.2 54.8 SK 1.9 7.0 16.7 26.1 20.7 28.1 25.0 36.1 34.1 SNE 22 GWh 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LG 34.0 77.0 119.9 153.0 195.0 520.0 SKI 4.7 12.5 20.5 40.5 85.5 280.5 SDI 10.0 18.0 43.2 56.4 73.4 113.4 2.7 3.9 47.1 54.1 63.6 88.3 51.4 111.4 230.7 304.0 417.5 1002.2 17 17 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 SDI-5.7%6.0%2.8%4.9%5.0%6.0%10%LGES 3.2%-3.7%-1.3%4.3%6.0%3.9%6.80%SKI-91.2%-44.8%-26.5%2.1%-21.7%-25.4%-6.10%-MA+energy 2.0%-1.6%-1.3%4.1%3.3%2.5%2.8%18 日韩电池厂 材料供应商体 系 SDI ECOPRO POSCO Soulbrain Panax-Etecyi LGES L&F POSCO SK ECOPRO L&F Soulbrain 8/9/25 10-2.35 10 5 2024 5 7 2022 2 2024 7 11.93 18 6(MHP)-4868.9 4-12.6 1.56-1500 4 2023Q1 1.83 10-12-9.16 9000 2022 20 10 2020 8 18 2.75 4 5000 NMP 5000-3.6 10 5 5-2.45 5 10 24 15 4/2022 9 4.5-2021 3.07-2024 3.94 2024 2.33/+2023 Mustang Mach-E 2024,F-150 Lightning 2023 60 2026 200 2026 40GWh 2030 240GWh IRA 19 10 26 企业 合作企业 合作时间 合作情况 2022 7 7 21 2023 Mustang Mach-E 2024,F-150 Lightning 2022 9 46 20GWh 2022 12 Honda 2024 2030 123GWh 2022 9 46 21GWh 2021 12 GOTION,INC.2021 12 GOTION,INC.2023-2028 200GWh 2022 10 10 19 30GWh 2026 2023 2022/2023 20 11 2021 12 13 14 15 16.0%20.7%20.4%7.7%7.7%12.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%21 19/2019 2020 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 4.1 4.1 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.1-2.2 1.2 3.2 3.5 2.4 0.8 0.4 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.4/2019 2020 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 1.08 0.92 1.18 1.43 1.38 1.38 0.37 0.36 0.59 0.52 0.7 0.6 0.85 0.62 0.53 0.53 0.48 0.5 0.79 0.79 0.84 1.38 1.19/2019 2020 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 0.32 0.52 1.43 2.09 1.65 1.30 0.28 0.30 0.98 1.52 1.50 0.87/2019 2020 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 1.08 0.86 0.84 0.95 0.91 0.94 0.13 0.13 0.24 0.48 0.57 0.47 2019 2020 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 10.38%8.93%12.21%11.02%9.69%9.74%22 2022 14%/1 2 PAA CNT 2030 8 Q4 4680 23 24 2015 2020 2019 2021 6-12 A 300 500 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