资源描述
2024 S AC S 0 1 6 0 5 2 2 0 7 0 0 0 2S AC S 0 1 6 0 5 2 2 0 9 0 0 0 12023/11/20 MR+AI 2WUCXxOnQoNoPrPoNnQoRqRaQcMaQtRrRtRtQiNpOrQeRoMmNbRnMqNNZnQrMuOnRsM-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%02040608010020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 yoy1.1 2023Q3 3.028 0.2%66.7 4.4%19.7%5950 2023Q2 Q3 8.6%OPPO 2023Q3 6670 18%1180 OPPO vivo 16%Mate 60 Canalys 2023 IDC 1 2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 OPPO vivo 3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 OPPO vivo 4-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010020030040050020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 YoY3 TWS 2023Q2 TWS 2 6816 8.19%26%2%boAt 38%OPPO 9%5%4%Canalys,5 TWS 1 Top5 TWS 1.1-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02040608010012020Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 TWS yoy 1 26%2%2 9%3%3 boAt 7%38%4 5%6%5 OPPO 4%25%4 PC 2023Q3 6,560 7%23Q2 8%6%5,210 8%1,350 2023Q3 1,600 4%21%7%1,350 14%29%640 490 Canalys 6 PC 7 2023Q3PC 1.1-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.00 PC YoY%25%21%16%10%7%22%5 2023Q2 1600 4%;Q2 Q1 Canalys 8 1.1-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%0510152025302020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 yoy61.2 AI AI AI Google Pixel 8 AI 2023 10 Google Pixel 8 8 Pro Tensor G3 AI Pixel AI Pixel 8 Tensor G3 Pixel 6 Tensor 2 Pixel 8 Pro AI Pixel 7 ML 150 IT 9 Pixel 8/Pro 10 Tensor G3 AI 7 14 8Gen3 OS AI 2023 10 14 8Gen3 OS OS AI NPU AI OS WPS AI AI 8Gen3 14 AI 14 8 Gen3 CPU 32%34%GPU 34%38%8Gen3 AI AI Hexagon DSP Hexagon NPU 98 Meta Llama 2 AI 100 20 Token AI Stack 20 Pytorch AI IT,11 14 OS 12 AI 1.2 AI8 9300 AI 2023 11 9300 5G AI AI CPU 40%33%9300 MediaTek AI APU 790 2 45%10 70 130 330 AI MediaTek AI NeuroPilot AI Android Meta Llama 2 AI AI AI 13 9300 330 AI 14 9300 AI 1.2 AI91.3 AI PC PC AI PC AI PC 2023 10 AI for ALL”Tech World CEO AI PC PC AI AI PC 9 AI PC 10%AI PC 15 AI PC AI 101.3 AI ChatGPT Vifa ChatMini 8 17 ChatMini ChatGPT AI/9 20 AI Alexa Echo AI Alexa Alexa AI Alexa ChatGPT Alexa Alexa IT 16 Vifa ChatMini 17 111.4 MR 2023 XR 2022 XR 2023 PS VR2 Quest3 MR 2024 Wellsenn 18 XR 121.4 MR Vision Pro 2023 6 6 MR Vision Pro WWDC2023 Mac/iPhone 2 50 Vision Pro VR XR 3499 2023 Vision Pro/Vision Pro iOS MacOS VR 19 131.4 MR Vision Pro XR 1 VR VR VST Vision Pro 12+5 WWDC23 Vision Pro Vision Pro 2 Vision Pro 3499 OLED A Vision Pro 3 iOS Vision Pro iOS 3D Vision Pro 2024 MR 14 IC15 Wind 2.1 A 2022 Q3/IDM 2023 23Q3 155.42 31.85 IC 24 CMOS 2024 GAA 2nm MEMS RF HV BCD IC 23Q3 IC 20 A/IDM 0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00500.002018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3CIS 数字 模拟 功率 合计（天）16 2.2 2021 615EFlops 369EFlops 232EFlops 14EFlops GIV 2030 YB 56ZFlops 65%52.5ZFlops 80%PC 2023 N7/N6 N7/N6 2023 IDC 2021 202EFlops 104EFlops 85%50%IDC 2026 1271.4FELOPS 2022-2026 36.53%21 22 2019-2026 EFLOPs 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 EFIops 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E YoY17:2.3 5G IDC 5 2025 14.4%24.9%2045 55%35%5G 2022 622.41 411.88 21.53 2021-2025 46.81%050010001500200025002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 23%24 18 ICV 2.4 ADAS L2+ICV L0 L1 L2+6%L2+0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026EL0 L2 L3 L4-L5 L159%45%10%7%5%5%34%45%50%5%20%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2025E 2030EL0 L1 L2 L3 L4/L5 25 26 ADAS 19,2.4 L3 8 L5 20 Strategy Analytics 2021 530/2028 1000 3000 27 2012-2022 28 4385809345678131459020040060080010001200140016002012 2017 2022F 29 20:ICVTank 2.4 Yole CIS 2019 6.1 2023 7.5 2021 CIS 19.1 2025 32.7 14.3%30 31 CIS 627283971121301511752032352730501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 12.014.317.119.121.725.129.332.70.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CIS 21 2.4 NOA 100 Serdes 32 33 22:2.4 IMU GNSS GNSS GNSS GNSS IMU GNSS IMU MEMS MEMS IMU IMU GNSS 34 35 GNSS+IMU 232.4 IMU+GNSS L2+2021 L2 20%L2 P7 EC6 ES6 ES8 V LX WEY E-HS9 HiPhi X 2021 ONE L9 E-HS9 2020 12+GNSS+IMU+RTK V 2020 6 80Max+GNSS+IMU LX 2020 11 70 8 80Dmax 80D+GNSS+IMU V Plus 2021 9 80 80 90+GNSS+IMU+RTK LX Plus 2022 1 80D ADiGO 3.0 80DMax ADiGO 4.0+GNSS+IMU+RTK P7 2020 4+GNSS+IMU+RTK P5 2021 9 460E/550E XPILOT 3.0+GNSS+IMU+RTK EC6 2020 7 1.5 3.9 GPS+ES6 2020 5 ES8 2020 4 ET7 2021 1 680+V2X ONE 2021 5 2021+GNSS+IMU+RTKL9 2022 6+GNSS+IMU+RTK 2 24 IoT Analytics Statista 2.5 AIoT AIoT IoT Analytics 2022 144 2023 2027 16%297 AIoT AIoT Statista 2021 215 2027 546 36 2015-2027()37 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%051015202530352015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YOY01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 25 26 38:+39+3.1+20%CMP;+0-1+AE,MKS comet ASML,KLA,AE,MKS 27 40 2022 41 2022 3.2 2022 33.14 220.56 12.26 80.21 2022 37 15-20%11-13%283.3 19%X 2%X 42 2020 43 31%20-25%10%13%10%7%3%,193nm 20-25%Semiengineering EEtimes,lasertec 293.4 KLA 2022 3%OCD OCD muetec,44 2020 45 2022 30 RD-SEM CD-SEM KLA 3.5 46 31 324.1 ICVIEWS 6 75%13%AirProducts Linde Air Liquide 75%10%(TOK)8 90%8 20%10%95%70%90%70%12%Toppan.DNP.HOYAPhotronics 13 2022 447 10.5%,61.5%3 334.2 DOI SUMCO 47 DOI 344.3 SUMCO 48 DOI 35 PCB PCB365.1 2030 2030/2035 50%EVTank 2022 1082.4 61.6%13.8%2022 688.4 2021 53.0%63.6%25.6%EVTank 2025 2030 2542.2 5212.0 2030 50%3 2030 2035 55%100%50%50%49 50 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%02004006008001,0001,2002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006007008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()2.0 EV Tank 37 51 L0-L5 PCB PCB PCB 5.1 Yole 38 PCB ADAS+PCB ADAS PCB 2023 Q1 L2+36.0 68.2%36.0 L2+ADAS 65.6 PCB 24GHz 77GHz 77GHz PCB PCB 52()1648.22432.10500100015002000250030002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 5.1 39 PCB PCB 2022 539 2025 708 10.4%ICVTank 2022 739 2025 1000 1030 5 12.7%53 54 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01002003004005006007008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E市场规模（亿美元）yoy（右轴）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E市场规模（亿元）yoy（右轴）ICVtank 5.1 405.2 AI 5G AI IDC 2023-2027 IaaS 22.24%2027 3230 55 0%10%20%30%40%50%020004000600080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027ESaaS PaaS IaaSSaaS PaaS IaaS 2016-2018 2020-2023 1 2 3 Intel CPU 4 IDC 2023 1342-10.28%AI IDC 2024 2027 1925 56-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy Bloomberg IDC 41 PCIe5.0 PCIe 2003 PCIe1.0 PCI-SIG PCIe I/O PCIe CPU PCIe 5.0 PCIe 4.0 PCIe 5.0 32GT/s AI 5G PCIe 6.0 PCIe5.0 CPU 57 PCIe PCI-SIG 5.2 AI 42 Statista 2013 223.17 2022 364 2013-2022 CAGR 5.59%2017-2018 2019-2020 2020 2021-2022 AI DellOroGroup 2022 2027 2022-2027 1000 58-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy Statista 5.2 AI 43 800G 10G/25G/40G 100G/200G/400G/800G 400G 2025 800Gbps 400Gbps 2027 400Gbps 70%AI 59 De ll O roG roup 5.2 AI 44 PCIe PCB Df 6 MidLoss Low Loss 10Gbps 3 RTF Ultra Low Loss 50Gbps Super Ultra Low Loss 2 HVLP PCIe4.0 5.0 100G 400G 800G PCB 60 61 PCB(/)ITEQ Prismark 442.94 455.94 1,539.46 1,538.18 0200400600800100012001400160018002020 20214 6 8-16 18+5.2 AI 455.3 Canalys 2023 2.58 2022 2.86 10%2022 Canalys Counterpoint 2023 8%5%Counterpoint 2023 62 2020Q2-2023Q2 canalys 46 FPC HDI FPC HDI 5G FPC MPI LCP 63 iPhone ifixit,techinsightsTeardown.Com HIS Prismark Partners 5.3 475.4 42%26%19%64(2019)42%19%26%6%4%3%485.4 2023Q3 44.67+3.84%+8.29%3.44+31.63%+12.02%PCB 2023Q3 CCL 36.59+6.82%+11.40%3.55+51.18%+18.91%65()66()-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00 营业总收入 yoy（右轴）-100.00%-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00归母净利润 yoy（右轴）Wind 49 2023Q3 8.2-6.14%+5.51%-0.72-150.21%-164.24%67()68()-400.00%-200.00%0.00%200.00%400.00%-2.000.002.004.006.00归母净利润 69()70()-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3营业收入-200.00%0.00%200.00%400.00%600.00%-2.000.002.004.006.008.002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3归母净利润 2023Q3 9.24+7.87%+6.94%-0.08+56.45%-30.16%2023Q3 9.16+17.49%+11.26%-0.19-121.03%-454.26%71()72()-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%0.0020.0040.002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3营业收入-200.00%-100.00%0.00%100.00%200.00%-1.000.001.002.003.002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3归母净利润 Wind-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00营业收入5.4 50 2023H1 81.22-38.43%4.22-76.87%73()74()-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00 营业总收入 yoy（右轴）-200.00%-100.00%0.00%100.00%200.00%300.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00净利润 yoy（右轴）75 76 20182023 0%10%20%30%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-10%0%10%20%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 5.4 Wind 515.5 Wind 9 33.6 2022 3 7 10730/2023 10 13 7891/2023 10 13 LME 180900 8um 6um 4.5um PCB PCB 9 13.65%24.38%77 LME 78 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002020-01-09 2021-01-09 2022-01-09 2023-01-09現貨結算價:LME 銅（美元）總庫存:LME 銅（吨）（右轴）-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09营业收入（亿新台币）环比(右轴)同比（右轴）01234567892021-06-11 2022-06-11 2023-06-11平均加工费:电池级铜箔:6um:国产平均加工费:电池级铜箔:8um:国产平均加工费:电池级铜箔:4.5um:国产 79 8um 6um 4.5um(/)525.6:Wind,2021 17.00%12.80%11.30%8.10%CR4 49.20%PCB 9 17.77%5.48%-0.85%7.47%80 81-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09营业收入 环比（右轴）同比（右轴）-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09营业收入 环比（右轴）同比（右轴）-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.402022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09营业收入 环比（右轴）同比（右轴）0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05进口均价:玻璃纤维及其 制品:当月值进口均价:玻璃纤维粗纱:当月 值 82 83(/)53 Wind 2021 37000/2021 74%2022 2023 7 7 12650/12400/2023 10 13 14700/14600/84(/)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000():():5.7:54 55 6 10%5%10%-5%5%-5%A 300 500 6 A 300 500 56
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