20231113_兴业证券_煤炭开采行业研究报告：业绩底部盘整已近尾声高ROE与毛利持续护航_21页.pdf

请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId investSuggestion investSuggestionChange 23E 24E 2.35 2.51 3.27 3.43 2.62 2.84 2.44 2.61 3.05 3.30 1.60 1.72 1.21 1.42 1.87 1.93 1.60 1.70 1.77 1.88 1.60 1.70 2.99 3.32 relatedReport 41 11.05-11.11)2023-11-12 40 10.29-11.04 2023-11-04 39 10.22-10.28 2023-10-28 emailAuthor S0190521010002 summary 2023 1-9 2023 1-9 2023 9 30-0.06%0.75 2023 2023 1-9-9.2%-5.1%-26.6%ROE 2023 1-9 ROE 12.7%2023Q1 Q2 Q3 ROE 5.0%3.7%3.6%2023 1-9 23.7 6.5+0.7 154.9-42.2 2023 1-9 5.74-7.89X 1.21-1.62X 2023 243+24 0.93%+0.16 0.91 23Q3 1 2 ROE 3 title ROE createTime1 2023 11 13 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1 Q3.-4-1.1 2023 0.75.-4-1.2 Q3.-4-1.3.-6-2.-9-2.1 23Q3.-9-2.2 ROE.-12-3.-13-3.1.-13-3.2.-14-4.-16-4.1.-16-4.2.-16-5.-19-6.-20-1 2023 0.75.-4-2 2023.-4-3 Q5500/.-5-4/.-5-5 2023/.-5-6/.-5-7 2023/.-5-8 2023/.-6-9.-6-10 2023.-6-11 2023.-7-12-.-7-13-.-7-14 2023Q3.-8-15 2023Q3.-8-16 247.-8-17.-9-18.-9-19.-9-20.-9-21 2023 1-9.-10-22 2023 1-9.-11-23 2023 1-9 ROE.-12-24 ROE.-12-25 2023 1-9 ROE-12-26 2023 1-9.-13-27 2023 1-9.-14-ZXDWvMqNsRmNoQtQsPqPpO8OdN9PsQpPnPnOeRnMnMeRpOmRbRrQmMNZpOmNMYsRnP 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-28 2023 1-9.-15-29.-16-30 2023Q3.-16-31.-16-32 2023Q3.-17-33 2023Q3.-17-34 2023Q3.-17-35 2023Q3.-17-36 2023.-18-37.-19-请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-1 Q3 1.1 2023 0.75 2023 1 1 9 30 0.75 2023 2023 9 30-0.06%0.69%0.75 7-8 9 2023 12 20 1 2023 0.75 2 2023 iFinD 2023/1/1-2023/9/30=-iFinD 2023/1/1-2023/9/30 1.2 Q3 Q3 2023 726/717/701/+0.4%-0.3%-2.5%2023-2.2%2023 2023 Q5500 1140/927/875/-3.7%-23.6%-31.4%-20.9%-18.7%-5.6%2023 Q5500 Q5500 Q5800 Q2 20%Q3 6%0.69%-0.06%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0.69%-0.06%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-3 Q5500/4/2023 9 30 2023 9 30 5 2023/23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q3 23Q3 23Q2 Q5500 984 761 722-25.7%-5.1%-22.7%Q5500 903 697 673-21.6%-3.4%-22.8%Q5800 1053 780 761-36.3%-2.4%-25.9%Q3 2023 2464/2032/1842/-0.1%-30.0%-22.0%+1.8%-17.5%-9.4%2023 2023 2530/1960/2118/-13.7%-39.1%-18.6%2023+8.1%2023 2023 1/3 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q2 6/7 2023/iFinD iFinD 699 5005506006507007508001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q5500 99503006009001200150018002,464 2,032 1,842 0500100015002000250030003500Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-8 2023/23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q3 23Q3 23Q2 1/3 2186 1530 1616-22.8%5.6%-30.0%1920 1501 1450-18.7%-3.5%-21.8%2475 1789 1986-19.7%11.0%-27.7%iFinD 1.3 2023Q3/2023 10.72 0.8%2023 3.54-2.2%-1.5%9 10 2023 7 11 8“”9 90/2023 12 2024 4 50%60%70%80%90%100%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500山西省煤炭产量 内蒙古煤炭产量 陕西省煤炭产量 三省产能利用率(右轴)2023 1-9 10.7-0.8%2023 3.5-1.5%-2.2%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-7-9 2023 24368+5.3%16861+2.9%69.2%2023 4 11 2023 12-13-16861+2.9%69.2%200.6 501001502002503001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-2020 2021 2022 2023339.0 1502002503003504004501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-2023 247 3 2023 9 30 249.0 2023 2.2+3.0%14 2023Q3 15 2023Q3 iFinD iFinD 16 247 iFinD 249.01902102302502701 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12(247)2021 2022 2023 7807500055006000650070007500800085003 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 600650700750800850900950 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-2 2.1 23Q3 2023 1-9 2023 1-9 11616-9.2%+0.6%-15.0%-12.4%+0.4%-8.0%-0.8%2023 2023 1-9 8081-5.1%+1.2%-8.0%-8.3%+6.1%-4.3%-0.9%2023 1-9 30.4%-3.0 32.2%29.4%29.5%-0.4-5.4-3.2 2023 1-9 1529-26.6%+5.1%-48.3%-27.3%+62.6%-30.2%-2.4%17 18 iFinD iFinD 19 20 iFinD iFinD 4077443942364044410137733,742.129.4%27.6%1.6%-11.2%0.6%-15.0%-12.4%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%320036004000440048002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2748289328552591278126622,63718.8%13.9%-5.6%-17.5%1.2%-8.0%-8.3%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%240025502700285030002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 32.6%34.8%32.7%35.8%32.2%29.4%29.5%20%24%28%32%36%40%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q359084858839163344943883.6%110.2%27.3%-4.8%5.1%-48.3%-27.3%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%020040060080010002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-21 2023 1-9%23Q1-3 22Q1-3 YOY 23Q1-3 22Q1-3 23Q1-3 22Q1-3 YOY 197.3 198.7-0.7%33.0%33.4%-0.4 35.8 32.6 10.1%327.6 423.1-22.6%5.4%4.2%1.2 8.3 7.8 5.8%219.8 268.5-18.2%27.6%23.1%4.6 16.2 15.4 5.3%96.9 89.1 8.8%40.5%44.6%-4.1 19.2 18.4 4.3%59.7 67.5-11.7%49.4%45.0%4.4 16.3 16.1 1.6%203.6 290.5-29.9%33.8%32.5%1.3 39.2 39.8-1.7%555.4 573.1-3.1%20.1%22.1%-2.0 50.6 52.0-2.7%193.3 212.5-9.0%5.3%6.5%-1.2 5.6 6.3-10.8%1,562.1 1,753.4-10.9%24.3%25.8%-1.5 166.9 193.3-13.7%216.5 273.1-20.7%45.0%41.3%3.7 42.7 49.6-13.9%2,524.7 2,504.9 0.8%35.1%40.0%-4.9 482.7 591.5-18.4%330.1 399.7-17.4%49.9%52.2%-2.2 72.7 92.7-21.6%86.4 110.9-22.1%45.5%45.2%0.3 18.9 24.1-21.8%289.0 356.3-18.9%41.2%43.0%-1.8 39.8 53.9-26.2%231.0 282.0-18.1%30.9%34.3%-3.4 31.4 47.3-33.6%61.2 68.1-10.2%52.1%58.8%-6.7 10.1 15.3-33.9%96.0 114.4-16.1%43.6%54.4%-10.8 18.0 27.6-34.8%112.6 127.9-12.0%46.3%56.2%-9.9 21.6 33.8-36.0%85.0 99.5-14.6%30.9%41.4%-10.5 13.3 21.2-37.4%407.0 484.6-16.0%39.1%41.1%-2.0 56.4 93.4-39.7%86.1 94.4-8.8%35.8%29.7%6.2 15.6 27.3-42.8%1,274.3 1,305.8-2.4%37.3%40.9%-3.6 161.8 291.8-44.6%170.4 196.3-13.2%14.7%18.7%-3.9 9.9 18.2-45.6%1,350.4 1,691.2-20.2%33.2%40.6%-7.4 155.3 291.8-46.8%65.2 94.0-30.7%-9.4%0.3%-9.8 12.8 27.1-52.7%76.2 90.6-15.9%31.3%43.3%-12.1 7.7 16.6-53.4%40.5 46.5-12.9%19.7%26.4%-6.7 0.6 2.1-70.5%148.4 187.1-20.7%13.8%20.2%-6.4 4.1 17.1-76.3%49.4 67.2-26.4%25.2%48.4%-23.1 2.0 13.7-85.5%109.1 141.0-22.6%1.9%5.2%-3.3 0.1 2.6-97.8%4.9 8.9-45.1%4.2%4.9%-0.7 0.0 0.2-99.1%49.0 69.3-29.3%7.7%2.7%5.0 0.1-1.9-105.2%25.7 27.2-5.6%10.4%13.1%-2.6-0.2 1.1-120.1%A 8.2 10.5-22.1%41.9%53.3%-11.5-0.6 0.8-180.8%138.6 179.5-22.8%2.5%5.0%-2.4-2.6 2.4-210.2%31.3 32.3-3.1%29.2%34.8%-5.7-1.0 0.6-276.5%55.0 57.1-3.6%3.0%3.0%0.0 2.3-1.0-346.3%77.8 101.5-23.4%-2.4%2.1%-4.6-4.4-0.6-586.3%11,615.5 13,098.3-11.3%30.4%33.4%-3.0 1,529.2 2,142.1-28.6%iFinD 2023 1-9 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-2023 2023 1-9 2329 1061 988 66 1964 282 2023 1-9 623 1409-1.43-1.68-2.71 22 2023 1-9 23Q1-3 23Q1-3 22Q1-3 23Q1-3 22Q1-3 23Q1-3 22Q1-3 69.0 63.4 5.7-34.3-52.6 18.3 7.3 24.9-17.6 42.0 283.6 378.2-94.6-20.1-160.9 140.8-242.1-192.2-49.8 21.4 54.7 68.3-13.6-52.5-31.9-20.6 19.0-20.4 39.4 21.2 8.2 30.5-22.3-8.3-7.6-34.3 14.0-36.6 50.6 13.9 26.8 52.3-25.5-0.7-3.3 2.6-13.6-21.8 8.2 12.5 89.1 120.0-30.9-18.7-15.9-2.7-60.3-66.8 6.5 10.2 12.3 27.1-14.8-33.4-34.4 1.0 24.6 32.5-7.9 3.6 33.7 25.1 8.6-14.4-10.2-4.2-16.3-18.1 1.8 3.0 7.1 4.2 2.9-4.5-7.3 2.8-0.5 3.3-3.7 2.1 30.6 38.2-7.6-10.5-10.2-0.3-18.2-8.3-9.8 1.9 7.6 18.3-10.7-2.1-15.5 13.4-3.6-0.2-3.4 1.9 5.2 6.7-1.6-1.0-2.9 1.9-2.4 1.1-3.5 1.8 5.1 11.5-6.4-0.7-0.7 0.0-3.1-7.0 4.0 1.4 31.9 38.1-6.1-29.4-34.0 4.7 19.4-8.5 27.9 22.0 1.9 1.0 0.9-0.4-0.9 0.5-1.8-1.9 0.1-0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3-1.0-0.7-0.3-0.4-0.0-0.4-0.3 9.0 30.5-21.4-6.0-6.0 0.0-4.4-6.4 2.0-1.3 5.5 6.0-0.5-6.9-0.8-6.0-0.1-6.7 6.6-1.5 2.1 24.2-22.1-18.2-42.0 23.8 14.3 32.4-18.1-1.9-6.3 4.9-11.2 0.5-6.6 7.1 3.9 4.1-0.2-2.0-12.4-4.0-8.4 3.7 1.1 2.6 6.5-0.8 7.3-2.2 9.9 25.1-15.2 0.9-3.3 4.2-17.3-13.9-3.4-6.6 49.1 48.8 0.3-7.3-16.4 9.1-50.6-33.5-17.1-8.8 27.3 15.7 11.6-25.0-4.6-20.4-12.7-3.4-9.3-10.4 17.7 43.5-25.8-6.5-15.7 9.3-21.8-58.1 36.3-10.6 19.5 41.6-22.1-27.6-25.7-1.9-6.8-9.3 2.5-14.9 43.0 45.8-2.8-23.8-22.9-0.9-36.6-21.4-15.2-17.4 74.4 103.9-29.6-48.6-25.9-22.7-47.3-35.3-12.0-21.5 92.8 259.8-167.0 4.3-22.9 27.1-126.1-80.7-45.3-29.0 48.7 38.3 10.4-5.2-3.2-1.9-76.9-13.7-63.3-33.4 50.1 82.2-32.1-13.0-9.7-3.2-70.8-93.6 22.7-33.8 190.1 380.5-190.5-91.4-84.3-7.1-241.6-263.6 21.9-143.0 284.7 434.2-149.5-191.2-13.7-177.5-261.4-190.5-70.9-167.9 747.2 910.9-163.7-284.8-220.0-64.8-733.1-572.5-160.6-270.7 2,329.3 3,390.2-1,061.0-988.3-922.5-65.8-1,964.4-1,682.4-282.0-623.5 iFinD 1 2023 1-9-2023 1-9 2.请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-2.2 ROE ROE 2023 1-9 ROE 12.7%2023 5.0%3.7%3.6%ROE 23 2023 1-9 ROE 24 ROE iFinD iFinD ROE 2023 1-9 ROE 26.1%17.2%16.9%15.8%15.6%25 2023 1-9 ROE iFinD 12.7%-5%0%5%10%15%20%5.0%3.7%3.6%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42019 2020 2021 2022 20237.9%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%A 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-3 3.1 2023 1-9 2023 1-9 2023 1-9 24270/18645/9967+8.5%/+6.7%/+4.6%-9.5%/-3.9%2023 1-9-22.3%-17.4%-9.0%-19.1%0.8%2023 1-9-14.4%-9.4%+12.0%+11.9%2023 1-9 56.0%54.5%51.1%26 2023 1-9/%2023Q1-3 YOY 2023Q1-3 YOY 2023Q1-3 YOY 2023Q1-3 8,831-3.9%349 12.0%794-22.3%56.0%-13.5pct 9,967 8.5%295-3.7%603-17.4%51.1%-7.0 pct 24,270 2.3%191 11.9%547-7.1%44.1%-6.4 pct 18,645 6.7%414-3.0%660-9.0%37.2%-3.9 pct 4,041 4.6%343-14.4%755-19.1%54.5%-2.4 pct 1,380-9.5%625-9.4%1,199 0.8%47.9%5.9 pct 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-3.2 2023 1-9 9.57-71.3%-2.71-1.67 35%3%2023 1-9+6.46+13.0%+3.4+9394+2694-2.3-1.0-4666 27 2023 1-9 2023Q1-3 2022Q1-3 2023Q1-3 2022Q1-3 294.0 131.3 162.8 6.9-20.1 26.9 271.3 343.9-72.6 10.6 0.1 10.5 175.6 0.9 174.7 2.3 3.2-0.8 167.3 47.0 120.3 93.9 0.0 93.9 39.4 26.5 12.9 0.2 22.3-22.1 20.7 226.7-206.0 2.8-0.3 3.1 19.9 55.7-35.8 28.4 24.9 3.5 16.8 1,912.8-1,895.9-5.2 5.0-10.3 16.0-0.4 16.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 11.5 23.1-11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 8.9-3.6 0.1-3.7 8.3 70.6-62.3 22.8 39.6-16.8 6.8 54.7-47.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.0 3.9 6.0 47.3-41.3 4.5 59.9-55.4 5.0 4.9 0.0 2.3 7.8-5.5 0.0 0.3-0.4 1.6 353.0-351.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 10.9-9.5 28.2 1.7 26.5 0.8-1.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0-0.3 0.3 1.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0-15.2 25.1-40.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0-0.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.4 0.5 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 47.3-46.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1-0.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1-0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.0 16.9-0.1 0.0-0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0-1.4 2.4-3.8 342.8 1.9 340.9-4.0 31.0-35.0 35.0 263.0-228.0-6.1 9.1-15.2 6.9 0.2 6.7-40.0-32.8-7.2 2.5 103.6-101.1-63.9-1.6-62.3 0.0 0.8-0.8 957.4 3,332.0-2,374.6 645.7 571.1 74.5 iFinD 2023 1-9 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-2023 1-9 154.9-21.4%+16.1+8.3+2.5-28.1-14.2-12.0 28 2023 1-9 2023Q1-3 2022Q1-3 YOY 2,964.0 2131.0 833.0 2,508.1 3928.1-1,420.0 2,425.7 3161.9-736.2 1,898.8 4704.9-2,806.0 1,708.8 2907.8-1,199.0 1,690.7 82.3 1,608.4 389.2 776.2-386.9 267.8 13.0 254.8 258.9 394.1-135.2 222.5 208.6 13.9 207.6 171.0 36.6 188.7 57.2 131.4 130.6 254.5-124.0 118.7 91.3 27.4 116.1 74.6 41.5 82.5 90.2-7.7 67.4 63.1 4.3 63.8 52.3 11.4 61.3 59.4 1.9 46.2 110.6-64.4 36.0 223.5-187.6 30.9 39.3-8.4 26.9 8.2 18.7 22.8 48.3-25.6 19.4 13.9 5.6 17.8-35.7 53.5 9.2 21.9-12.7 5.5 6.9-1.4 2.9-34.5 37.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0-0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.4-6.0 5.6-4.2-4.2 0.0-10.7 31.0-41.7-13.3-19.9 6.6 A-20.2-14.2-6.0-49.5 104.7-154.3 15,490.6 19,715.2-4,224.6 iFinD 2023 1-9 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-4 4.1 2023 1-9 5.74-7.89X 1.21-1.62X 2022 2023 9 28 7.71 2018 1 1 24.5%1.39 2018 1 1 66.6%29 iFinD 2023 9 30 4.2 2023 243 24+11.1%2023 21 30 2023Q3 31 iFinD iFinD 7.711.390.00.51.01.52.02.50369121518 2430500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2023Q3243 15 13 15 29 58 52 93 217 11 115-1624 29-4-30-0-122-250-8 0100200300400500 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-2023Q3 2023Q3 0.93%0.16 0.91 2023Q3 0.70%+0.14 0.70 0.21%+0.02 0.13 0.02%0.08 32 2023Q3 33 2023Q3 iFinD iFinD 34 2023Q3 35 2023Q3 iFinD iFinD 1.85%0.93%0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%2.4%A 1.40%0.70%0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%A 0.35%0.21%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%A 0.10%0.02%0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%A 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-18-2023Q3 6740 3933 3293 2295 2061 0.7%0.2%1.7%0.3%1.2%2022 60.2%72.8%51.1%77.4%2023Q3 32099 1872 1853 1.4%0.5%0.5%2023Q3 56.5 52.7 40.4+21.7%+15.7%+48.4%23.3%21.7%16.6%61.6%+48.4%+25.1%+21.7%+15.7%36 2023 56.46 190 6740-32099 52.73 150 3933-1872 40.40 62 3293-1853 18.15 54 2295-332 14.98 45 2061-295 9.49 41 1852-225 9.22 30 1717-29 8.04 26 1228-2 6.84 25 1026-4.98 21 887-iFinD 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-19-5 2023 2023 2023 ROE 2023 9 30 45.9%4 23Q3 1 2 ROE 3 37 代码 公司 评级 收 盘价（元）周 涨幅率 EPS（元）PE（倍）2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 601225.SH 18.50 2.89%3.62 2.35 2.51 5.1 7.9 7.4 601088.SH 31.10 2.40%3.50 3.27 3.43 8.9 9.5 9.1 600188.SH 19.72 2.23%4.14 2.62 2.84 4.8 7.5 6.9 600985.SH 14.84 3.78%2.83 2.44 2.61 5.2 6.1 5.7 601699.SH 20.13 5.01%4.74 3.05 3.30 4.2 6.6 6.1 601001.SH 12.21 5.71%1.82 1.60 1.72 6.7 7.6 7.1 000983.SZ 9.11 5.56%1.89 1.21 1.42 4.8 7.5 6.4 002128.SZ 13.49 0.07%1.78 1.87 1.93 7.6 7.2 7.0 600348.SH 8.12 1.63%1.95 1.60 1.70 4.2 5.1 4.8 601666.SH 10.61 5.99%2.47 1.77 1.88 4.3 6.0 5.6 601898.SH 8.78 3.05%1.38 1.60 1.70 6.4 5.5 5.2 600546.SH 16.34 1.81%3.52 2.99 3.32 4.6 5.5 4.9 资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：收盘价和周涨跌幅取 自 2023/11/10 大盘数据 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-20-6 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-21-12 300 50 500 15%5%15%-5%5%-5%/1934 15a-6/36 15 200135 6 SK 32 01-08 100020 5001 T2 52 518035