资源描述
|22 22-24.2%31 28 21Q2 21Q4 4 9 11/B C/23 10.3/12.2 23 8.3 23 350GW 2.0mm 50%2178 2091 23 5/7 30/29 4 4 8 3(002271)(603737)(000786)(002791)(601636)(603688)(600552)(600529)(301188)(601865)(00968)(600876)/2022 11 22 021-63325888*6074 S0860520030001 BTB520 S0860521120002 2022-11-15 Q3 2022-11-09 Q4 2022-10-31 2023 2 2022.6.6.8 22 H1 H2.11.13.13.17.19.23.23.27.29.36.37 3 1 2022.6 2 22 300%.6 3 22%.7 4 22%.7 5 22%.7 6 22%.7 7 2021Q4().8 8 2022Q3().8 9 2022Q1-3(%).8 10 2022Q3(%).8 11 2016%.9 12 2017%.9 13 2014%.9 14 2014/.9 15 2021 4%.10 16 20Q4.10 17 21Q1 22Q3.10 18 21Q2%.11 19 21Q2%.11 20 22Q3.11 21 22Q3.11 22 2018.12 23 2018.12 24 2019.12 25 2020%.12 26 2018-2022/.13 27 2019 10.13 28 2009/.14 29 12Q4.14 30 2012 11 PVC HDPE PP/.14 31 2016/.14 32 2010 2 PPI.15 33%.15 34 2012 10.15 4 35 2014 9.15 36 2016 10.16 37 2015%.16 38 2017-2021.17 39 2016-2022.17 40 2020.17 41 2016 11.18 42 2012 9.18 43 2014 9.18 44 2016 4.18 45 2014 1.19 46 2013 7.19 47 2003 2021(:).20 48 1961.20 49.20 50 2035.20 51.21 52.21 53.23 54.24 55 SiO2.24 56.26 57.27 58.27 59 2021.29 60 2022.29 61 2014-2020.30 62 2020.30 63 2018-2021.31 64 2019-2021.31 65.31 66.32 67.32 68.33 69.33 70.33 71 2021(180).34 72 2015.34 5 73 2020.35 74 2017.35 1 9.16 2.19 3.20 4 500.21 5.22 6.22 7 2023.25 8 2023.26 9 2023.27 10.28 11.28 12 21-25E.28 13.29 14.30 15.32 16 2019.34 17.35 6 2022 2022 2022 24.2%1 2022 2022 11 18 22 300 300-5.0%14.8%/10.4%11.2%2 22 300%2022 11 18-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510 300 7 3 22%4 22%2022 11 18 2022 11 18+41.9%+3.0%5 22%6 22%1 Q4 2022 11 18 2 Q4 2022 11 18 22Q3 357.3 QoQ-33.2%1.5%QoQ-0.4pct 22Q2-Q3-20-15-10-505101520-30-20-1001020-80-60-40-20020406080 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-100-50050100150200Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8 7 2021Q4()8 2022Q3()21Q4 22Q3 21Q4 90.7%9 2022Q1-3(%)10 2022Q3(%)22Q3 21Q4%22Q3 22Q2%22 22Q3 14.6%2017 27%22Q3-45.3%-15.7%-22.1%-58.0%22Q2 020406080100120140 020406080100120140 0100200300400500600700800 110100100010000 9 11 2016%12 2017%22 1-9 15.6 YoY-12.5%22 122.5/84.8/8 6200/4050/PVC 24.7%49.4%20.9%24.2%13 2014%14 2014/-10-50510152025-20-1001020304050602016Q1 2017Q2 2018Q3 2019Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2()/10()-80-60-40-200204060802017Q1 2018Q2 2019Q3 2020Q4 2022Q1-30-25-20-15-10-5051015202014-01 2015-12 2017-11 2019-10 2021-09300035004000450050005500600065000204060801001201401601802014-01 2015-12 2017-11 2019-10 2021-09/()10 15 2021 4%78 22Q3 78 131.2 YoY-58.7%Q3 20%56.4%35.9%16 20Q4 17 21Q1 22Q3 22Q3-74.3%-50.2%-24.7%QoQ-47.6-18.7-45.8pct 23.1%18.2%12.5%21Q3 22Q3 8 22Q3-34.1%QoQ+37.0pct 22Q3 53.9%-500501001502002021-06 2021-09 2021-12 2022-03 2022-06 2022-09 LNG PVC-80-60-40-20020406080100120050100150200250300350%()051015202530352021Q1 2022Q3 11 18 21Q2%19 21Q2%20 22Q3 21 22Q3 22 H1 H2 2022-100-500501001502021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3-200-150-100-500501002021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 051015202502468 30%30%0%0%-30%30%30%0%0%-30%-30%/%()12 22 2018 23 2018 22 24 2019 25 2020%2023 2023-150-100-500501001502018Q1 2018Q4 2019Q3 2020Q2 2021Q1 2021Q4 2022Q3%-50050100150200-40-200204060802018Q1 2018Q4 2019Q3 2020Q2 2021Q1 2021Q4 2022Q3%()-80-60-40-2002040-200-10001002003002019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1%()%-1000100200300400 13 22 8 1100/276.2/310.5/16 22Q2-Q3 11.2 21Q4 22 3-7 50%23 22 10 5048 2750/23 230 23 26 2018-2022/27 2019 10 3967/5500/22 23 23 25030035040045050001-01 03-11 05-20 07-29 10-07 12-162018 2019 2020 2021 202202040608010012001000200030004000500060002019-10 2020-09 2021-08 2022-07/()14 28 2009/29 12Q4 PVC 21 12165/6154/HDPE PP 22Q3 6.2 13.9/QoQ-17.3/-22.3%6.7 13.9/30 2012 11 PVC HDPE PP/31 2016/PPI 9 PPI PPI-2000-1000010002000300040005000600070002009-02 2012-03 2015-04 2018-05 2021-06 051015202530354045 020004000600080001000012000140002012Q4 2015Q1 2017Q2 2019Q3 2021Q4/%()020004000600080001000012000140002012-11 2015-04 2017-09 2020-02 2022-07PVC HDPE PP 051015202502468102016Q1 2017Q2 2018Q3 2019Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2()15 32 2010 2 PPI 33%22 9 16.3%17 9 44.4%6.0%34 2012 10 35 2014 9 10-23.2%-53.0%-23 22Q3 20%23-10-5051015-500501002010-02 2012-09 2015-04 2017-11 2020-06%PPI%()0.00.20.40.60.81.0-40-30-20-1001020()-15-10-50510152025-50-40-30-20-1001020302012-10 2015-03 2017-08 2020-01 2022-06%()-60-50-40-30-20-1001020302014-09 2016-08 2018-07 2020-06 2022-05%16 36 2016 10 37 2015%9 9 11 1 9 C 9 29“”9 30 9 30 1 B 11 9 11 13 16 11 14 21 40%2017-60-40-20020406080%-30-20-1001020304050-10-50510152015Q1 2016Q2 2017Q3 2018Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2022Q3/pct()17 38 2017-2021 39 2016-2022 11 22Q2 40 2020 22 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5-20-10 0 10 20 30 40/pct 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4-100-500501001502002503002015Q1 2016Q4 2018Q3 2020Q2 2022Q1%()9111315171921607080901001101202020-10 2021-03 2021-08 2022-01 2022-06 2022-11/()18 22 45 6 3 51.9%73.7%22 41 2016 11 42 2012 9 2022 21 22Q3 43 2014 9 44 2016 4 22H1 YoY+9.9%01020304050607080-50-40-30-20-1001020302016-11 2018-04 2019-09 2021-02 2022-07%()-15-10-50510152025-50-40-30-20-1001020302012-09 2015-02 2017-07 2019-12 2022-05%()020406080100120140160180-25-20-15-10-5051015202014-09 2016-08 2018-07 2020-06 2022-05%/()02040608010013.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.518.02016-04 2017-09 2019-02 2020-07 2021-12()19 685 22H1 58 22H2 70 22Q3 45 2014 1 46 2013 7 3%2 2003 50 50 2021 0.8pct 2015 1.6pct 6 3500400045005000550060006500-60-40-200204060802014-01 2015-12 2017-11 2019-10 2021-09%/()0102030405060-40-2002040602013-07 2015-06 2017-05 2019-04 2021-03%()20 47 2003 2021(:)48 1961 1 2035 70%B C 3 2018 2020 1700+1200 14 2020 6 4 8 2 B 2022 50%30%2020 30 29000 65%40%“+”B 2020 60%96%60%+C C B 80%C B 2020 60%C B 95%C 49 50 2035-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02003 2021(2.0)0.02.04.06.08.0010203040506070/%/(%/)()21 2/4 500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 32.0%1 25.0%1 36.0%1 36.0%1 36.0 1 16.0%1 17.0%1 18.0%1 11.0%4 11.0 5 5.0%8 5.0%9 2.0%10 17.0%2 17.0%2 19.0%2 17.0%2 18.0%2 8.0%5 12.0%2 14.0%2 4.0%8 4.0%8/40.0%1 44.0%1 45.0%1 39.0%1 45.0%1 7.0%3 7.0%3 20.0%2 19.0%2 20.0%2 20.0%2 21.0%2 21.0%9 17.0%3 16.0%3 18.0%3 15.0%3 12.0%3 13.0%2 14.0%2 17.0%2 16.0%1 16.0%1 2.0%10 9.0%4 9.0%4 8.0%5 7.0%5 51 52 01000200030004000500060002010 2015 2020 2025E 2030E 2035E 15.5%35.9%10.7%37.9%-22 3 80%5 I II III 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 6 80%0%20%40%60%80%100%21 18 21 20 1 2 3 4 50%20%40%60%80%100%21 18 21 20 1 2 3 4 23/99.98%1500 300-400/53 TQC 24 54 5000 N 24 55 SiO2 22 18 16,143/21 21,462/22 2.5/7-8/4-5/25 23 10.3 GW 72 370 350 15 24 GW 1728 36 120KG 15%23 10.3 7 2023 1 2 3 4%E 15 20 25 30 GW/GW A 72 72 72 72/B 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 GW/GW)C=A*B 1728 1728 1728 1728 KG/D 120 120 120 120 GW(/GW)F=C*D/(1-E)244.0 259.2 276.5 296.2 GW G 420 420 420 420 H=F*G 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.4 1 2 3 TopCon N N P 23 8.3 23 6.3 5.5 0.8/TQC 2.5 2 23 8.3 23/4:3:3 4:2:4 23 10.3 4.1 23 2 2.1 23 12.2 2 141KG 56KG 44.3 23 72.6 28.3 100%2/3 50%42.5 23 86.8 141KG 23 12.2 26 8 2023 23 A 2.5 KG B 141.2 KG C=B*40%56 D=A/C 44.3 23 E 72.6 F=E-D 28.3 G=F*150%42.5 23 H=B*G 12.2 Solarzoom 4%3/1/5.32%56 SOLARZOOM-CPIA 25 182 210 N 2030 50%N P 1 55.0%4.0%17.0%10.0%1.0%8.0%5.0%27 57 58 CPIA CPIA 2022 10 365 71680/1,720.3 11/12 23 1,933.3/23 2,091.4 21 2021 7 2022 3 22 2022 10 11 2/9 2023/2022 10 71,680.0 1,720.3 2022 11/12 13,529.2 324.7 2023 1,933.3 46.4 2023 87,142.5 2,091.4 2.0mm 2.0mm 2.0mm 3.2mm 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030E182mm 210mm 166mm 158.75mm 156.75mm0%20%40%60%80%100%N P 28 10 P 0.45%/P 0.55%/30 25 PID 11 3.2mm 2.0mm 182 72 182 72 2.583 2.583 W 532 532 W 399 459 GW 0.0647 0.0563 GW 0.0647 0.1126 mm 3.2 2/2.5 2.5 0.008 0.005/GW 5.18 5.63 CPIA 18/20/23/25 12%/30%/50%/60%22/23/250/350GW 1549.53/2178.49 24-25 20%24/25 484/581GW 2,625.2/3,163.4 12 21-25E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 37%45%50%55%60%GW 170 250 350 420 504 YoY 30.80%47.06%40.00%20.00%20.00%96%96%96%96%96%1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GW 195.8 288.0 403.2 483.8 580.6 GW 123.4 158.4 201.6 217.7 232.2 GW 72.5 129.6 201.6 266.1 348.4 29 3.2mm 7.98 10.25 13.04 14.08 15.02 2.0mm 8.16 14.59 22.70 29.97 39.23 16.14 24.84 35.74 44.05 54.25 3.2mm 638.61 819.88 1043.48 1126.96 1202.09 2.0mm 407.95 729.64 1135.00 1498.19 1961.27 1046.56 1549.52 2178.48 2625.15 3163.36 CPIA 2022 50%59 2021 60 2022 B2O3 4 13 B2O3%12 8 5 5 29.0%24.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%3.0%26.0%31.7%20.3%7.8%6.9%4.9%4.2%24.2%30 SiO2%81 75 71 70 Na2O+K2O%4 4-8 11.5 12-16 MgO+CaO+BaO+SrO%/5 5.5 12 Al2O3%23 27 36 03.5 10-6 K 3.23.4 3.56.1 6.27.5 7.69.0 121 1 1 1 2 98 HGB1 HGB1 HGB1 2 HGB2 3 HC1 HC1 HC1 HCB HC2 3 1 1 1 12 2014-2020 196.5 233.7 CAGR 2.9%2020 7.8%2020 720 400 150 20 150 7.8%2025 35%56.3 252 2020 11.3 2025 52.5 CAGR 36.1%61 2014-2020 62 2020 14 2020 2025E 400.00 150.00 20.00 150.00 720.00 400.00 150.00 20.00 150.00 720.00%7.50 7.50 18.75 7.50 7.81 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 30.00 11.25 3.75 11.25 56.25 140.00 52.50 7.00 52.50 252.00-4-202468101701801902002102202302402014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020%()7.8%92.2%31 10%2021 2021 1,080 2021 689 63.8%63 2018-2021 64 2019-2021 2021 65 3040506070809010002004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%()0204060801001201401600200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%()%()32 2016 3 5 43/-8.2%/151.4%/-51.6%15 2013 2 15 2015 2016 2017 12 2020 5 66 67 80%45%0102030405060704+7 4+7%0510152025303540-100-50050100150200t-1 t t+1/%/%()33 68 69 2004 I 2021 70-80%SGD 16 40 70 130ml 33%10%2015-2019 20.0%80.0%808590951001051101151201251300.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02019 2020 2021 2022Q1%()%()34 71 2021(180)72 2015/21H1 4.62 1.15 16 2019%92.50%7.50%/800 740 60 2019(16.61 5.01%21.98 39.38%2.24%8.35%60%NEG 2021 50%70%7.0%33.0%10.0%50.0%0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 35 73 2020 74 2017 10-20%2020 17 2020.11 2 10-20 4 2020.5 1.6 2 2017.6 2020 9 1 2.1 2021.11 40t/d 2.33 22 2019.1 2008 2 2021 5 50 2019.8 2.5 2017 27.6 2020 4.05 2021 13 2020 2022H1 50-60%2019 3 8 100t/d 6 25t/d 2021 1 2021.10 25/2021.11 40/2.33 2022 2020.8 2020 10 6 2022 2.8.1 5.0 2020.9 10 5 10 3.6 50.0%30.0%20.0%+NEG 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8M22 36 9 11/B C/23 10.3/12.2 23 8.3 23 350GW 2.0mm 50%2178 2091 23 5/7 30/29 4 4 8 3(002271)(603737)(000786)(002791)(601636)(603688)(600552)(600529)(301188)(601865)(00968)(600876)37 38 信 息披 露 1%(600529)(002791)1%39 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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