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2023 11 1 10 Wingstop 3 10-20 1+2 2-3+2021 3+2015-2020 alpha 1/2 3 WUFUxOqNpMmNsMoNqNtMmNaQaO7NoMpPpNnOeRoPoPfQmNrRbRqQuNMYtOmOwMnOqP1 心在远方，路在脚下1.1 3日本在外就餐率与实物外部化的转移 日本餐饮业与碗面市场日 本 单 身人口比例自1970s 开始迅速提升 日本1970-1990 的 离婚率和结婚率变化1.00%0.58%0.09%0.13%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Wind 4 心在远方，路在脚下1.1 4 Wind 中国近10-20年的“一人户”比例变化5.9%17.0%0%5%10%15%20%1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019中国近10几年的离婚率和结婚率变化0.93%0.54%0.20%0.39%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()16%13%9%10%16%11%11%8%9%-15%19%-6%21%20%13%-2%2%7%7%6%6%7%-14%24%-6%24%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 心在远方，路在脚下1.1 20155 2023 12%13%15%18%19%0%5%10%15%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2022 15%3%5%9%4%7%8%5%5%2%0%5%10%15%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2022 2018-2022 2018 2022 2015 1 2013 ToG 2 2014 3 10 心在远方，路在脚下1.1/6 1/1 2/2 3/4 心在远方，路在脚下1.1 7 Bloomberg 2023 7 1 5 10 Wingstop 106%307%-56.03 2046 88%Shake Shack 83%19%-32.22 449 66%54%361%438%573.17 3268 98%Restaurant Brands International51%47%-234.87 29956-Tim Hortons Burger King Popeyes Firehouse Subs 44%69%387%197.66 1983 98%Ruth s Chris Eddie V s The Capital Grille Olive Garden LongHorn Steakhouse Texas Roadhouse40%80%410%74.16 704 94%1993 24%117%239%1101.12 37222 47%18%106%283%2132.60 40274 33%15%86%213%373.78 55361 33%A&W Long John Silvers LJS-11%60%155%24.82 5773 59%-15%29%522%120.75 20205 33%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 8 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4,563 4,828 5,003 5,224 5,488 5,910 6,534 7,166 8,168 9,094yoy 7%6%4%4%5%8%11%10%14%11%146 176 273 466 768 1,298 1,349 1,371yoy 21%55%71%65%69%4%2%13 28 65 126 233 350 450yoy 115%132%94%85%50%29%2,073 4,789 4,803 6,024 8,214yoy 131%0%25%36%7,206 12,966 20,023yoy 80%54%5,746 6,187 7,172 7,758 9,053 9,915 10,954 12,399 13,714 15,076yoy 10%8%16%8%17%10%10%13%11%10%1,929 2,871 3,539 4,387 5,160 5,695yoy 23%24%18%10%162 252 351 782 767yoy 56%39%123%-2%2,085 2,346 2,656 2,931 3,106 3,480 4,489yoy 13%13%10%6%12%29%49 74 268 378 439 574 603yoy 113%51%41%16%31%5%769 890 1073yoy 16%20%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 10 CR5 0.44.92.00.44.35.22.81.50.50.31.40.40123456 22/04 22/05 22/06 22/07 22/08 22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/01 23/02 23/0348.338.714.7129.762.530.227.717.835.05.413.79.4020406080100120140160180 22/04 22/05 22/06 22/07 22/08 22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/01 23/02 23/03心在远方，路在脚下1.2 CR5 20%11 CR5 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%22/04 22/05 22/06 22/07 22/08 22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/01 23/02 23/03 1 CR5 10%-20%2 3 3 CR5 2%1 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 12 Top1 17.31%4.70%20.72%13.02%8.22%7.01%13.47%11.05%12.41%3.68%10.86%8.49%19.29%30.31%20.19%30.80%23.02%26.68%17.99%28.46%28.33%20.46%21.19%25.09%19.15%23.14%21.62%17.80%21.37%32.74%25.70%20.75%28.89%20.49%16.69%20.21%12.87%22.27%10.55%16.80%23.37%15.40%20.52%22.32%24.70%18.22%16.99%18.89%21.88%22.37%23.73%22.73%8.47%20.47%9.18%9.55%11.74%19.49%7.89%14.17%17.85%22.63%15.94%16.08%15.03%3.94%12.68%2.47%1.16%4.67%9.03%2.38%8.02%13.19%9.90%11.87%9.45%9.03%1.53%0.79%0.06%0.00%0.66%1.02%0.69%0.94%0.50%0.52%1.00%0.84%0.23%Top1 30.74%57.31%27.11%31.23%39.39%54.24%29.18%40.12%50.43%54.93%51.18%50.10%47.02%0%20%40%60%80%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 4 5000 20 13 5000 YoY 1 39,556 19.19 4.33%2023/06/302 29,338 15.79-10.22%2023/06/303 23,869 7.79 47.09%2023/06/304 20,065 18.94-0.03%2023/06/305 13,729 28.78 0.90%2023/06/306 11,910 14.12-12.39%2023/06/307 9,878 66.97 28.52%2023/06/308 9,634 18.93 40.07%2023/06/309 9,620 35.09 9.89%2023/06/3010 7,401 15.45 15.53%2023/06/3011 7,134 39.05 9.13%2023/06/3012 6,852 13.24 5.97%2023/06/3013 6,739 15.52 20.51%2023/06/3014 6,527 14.78 47.50%2023/06/3015 6,362 32.08 12.70%2023/06/3016 6,341 14.09-0.92%2023/06/3017 5,950 28.17 11.44%2023/06/3018 5,646 25.06 18.89%2023/06/3019 5,638 40.34 6.02%2023/06/3020 5,506 25.11 6.81%2023/06/3021 5,273 12.53 60.86%2023/06/30 1 21 5000 7 1 1 4 2 3 50 4 5 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 14 2018 500 1000 2019 8 15 40 2018 2018 2010 200Coco Coco 2011 4 2020 2019 5 2016 2012 17 2022 3.32 59%2008 7 2017 1 2017 1 燚 燚 6 2022 5 50 X 2017 12 8 260 160 2017 2021 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 15 1 2 3 1 SKU 2 takeaway 50 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 16 72 1,000 180/2,000 2.7 5,000-33-4.0-356-77-43 630 130 60.0%63.0%72.0%9.0 150.0 16.2 12.5%15.0%9.0%6.0 130.0 16.2 8.3%13.0%9.0%0.2 40.0 6.3 0.2%4.0%3.5%1.5 30.0 4.5 2.1%3.0%2.5%1.8 45.0 31.5 2.5%4.5%17.5%25 235 54.9 34.4%23.5%30.5%10 300 50/7.2 3.3 3.6 1.5 30 5/48.0 33.3 36.0 15 230 35-40 7-8 11-12 8-9心在远方，路在脚下1.2 10 17 10-20 Shake ShackWingstopTim Hortons(QSR)Burger King(QSR)Popeyes(QSR)McDonalds Chipotle Longhorn Steakhouse 2000 9%-1%0%2001 5%7%4%2002 17.0%7.0%0.0%3.0%2003 6.4%24.5%9.0%-1.7%1.7%2004 9.6%13.3%11.0%0.1%2.1%2005 4.4%10.2%9.0%7.1%4.6%2006 5.2%13.7%7.0%-2.2%-4.4%2007 4.5%10.8%4.0%1.0%-2.1%2008 4.0%5.8%-4.0%-2.2%-5.2%2009 2.6%2.2%-6.0%-0.9%0.6%2010 3.8%9.4%7.0%9.7%10.0%2011 6.0%4.8%11.2%8.0%4.1%3.4%2012 7.1%13.8%2.9%3.2%3.3%7.1%8.0%1.3%3.2%2013 5.9%9.9%1.2%0.5%-0.2%5.6%7.0%3.9%5.5%2014 4.1%12.5%3.1%2.1%-2.1%16.8%6.0%6.2%7.7%2.7%2015 13.3%7.9%5.6%5.4%5.9%0.5%0.2%7.0%12.2%11.9%4.4%2016 4.2%3.2%2.5%2.3%1.7%1.7%-20.4%6.0%10.4%10.5%3.5%2017-1.2%2.6%-0.1%3.1%-1.5%3.6%6.4%3.0%8.7%7.6%1.2%2018 1.0%6.5%0.6%2.0%1.6%2.5%4.0%2.0%4.8%6.8%2.7%2019 1.3%11.1%-1.5%3.4%12.1%5.0%11.1%5.0%2.8%3.2%3.3%2020-27.7%21.4%-15.7%-7.9%13.8%0.4%1.8%-12.0%11.0%11.5%-8.9%2021 26.0%8.0%10.6%9.3%-0.4%13.8%19.3%21.0%-3.6%3.9%7.0%2022 8.0%3.4%10.0%9.7%1.4%5.9%8.0%12.0%-2.6%-0.7%28.1%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 18 Wingstop Chipotle 2016 APP The club 2019 Club 1000 100 2011 APP 2019 2022 2800 2009 APP 3040 APP 2011 APP,2017 2022 450 2-3 2018 2022 Doordash Ubereats 2023 Q1 65%52014 Postmates 2020 ubereats 2020 Grubhub 60%2018 2019 7%Ubereats 27%2014 Anyware 6 2021 78%/2022 12 2009Carnitas 2014 Sofritas+2018 lifestyle bowls 2019 carne asada 2020 2017 Pink Drink Instagram Pink Drink 52.4 2010 2015-2019 35%2021 chipotle 4 3.5%-6.5%2000 5-20 2010 16 27 2010 10%2012 12.7%2014 13.1%2017 5%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 LTO 19 Bloomberg APP 1 APP 2009 APP 2013 APP APP 2023Q1 39.3%2 2018 5 3200 LTO 2018 CEOBrian 2 15%-17%5%-6%LTO 4 1/3 LTO Chicken al Pastor Carne asada+2002 17.0%15.4%1.7%2003 24.5%21.6%3.0%2004 13.9%9.5%4.4%2005 10.2%8.4%1.8%2006 13.7%11.5%2.2%2007 10.7%8.6%2.1%2008 5.8%1.6%4.4%2009 2.2%-2.8%6.0%-1.0%2010 9.4%8.8%0.2%0.3%2011 11.2%8.3%2.9%0.0%2012 7.3%4.8%2.9%-0.4%2013 5.5%5.2%0.2%0.2%2014 16.7%10.7%3.8%2.2%2015 0.2%/2016-20.4%/2017 6.4%/2018 4.0%-1.4%4.0%1.4%2019 11.1%7.1%1.9%2.1%2020 1.8%-3.9%1.8%4.0%2021 19.3%10.3%8.0%1.4%2022 8.0%12.6%2003-2022 Chipotle iPhone App 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 201820 Bloomberg 2017Q4-2023Q1 8.6%8.8%10.3%11.2%12.9%15.7%18.2%18.3%19.6%26.3%60.7%48.8%49.0%50.1%48.5%42.8%41.6%41.9%39.0%37.2%37.4%39.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%5 2020Q2-2022Q2.心在远方，路在脚下1.2 21 Wind 2010 5.0%2011 19.0%2012 10.5%4.0%2013 2.8%-6.3%-15.0%2014 1.5%6.6%-4.0%2015-4.0%-0.8%-4.0%2016 3.0%13.7%0.3%3.0%2017 9.3%14.4%34.3%4.4%5.0%H22018 2.1%6.4%7.7%0.5%2.0%2019-1.4%1.6%4.1%7.6%-4.6%72.2%4.0%2020-23.9%-17.7%-9.3%-8.8%-14.7%16.5%-8.0%7.4%-11.0%H2 9.0%2021-8.3%-10.2%5.7%11.0%-5.8%8.2%-3.0%32.2%28.6%50%+18.7%2022-23.0%-9.9%-22.3%-8.3%-1.0%-24.6%-7.0%20.8%3.9%20%-30%14.4%2023H1 29.1%12.2%16.1%9.1%11.0%20%+8.8%10 5 3-4 20-22 3 23 1-2/3/4/5/6 19 92%/80%/84%/80%/81%23 1/2/3/4/5 19 110%/117%/90%/85%/75%/80%23Q1 19 92%3 3-4 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 2020Q3 13 22 2020Q3 2021 50%-100%2023Q3 20%Tims 3/12-31.4%-6.8%0.3%9.2%94.5%71.8%75.8%43.6%41.6%41.2%19.4%9.2%29.6%20.8%19.9%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 1 2 10 1523 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 619 1935 1579 2087 1857 2048 2413 2420 1319 1757 1700 2022 1763 2336 2596 2694 2428 2879 3199 2990 3154yoy 200%6%53%16%-29%-14%-30%-16%34%33%53%33%38%23%23%11%30%56 214 218 284 229 236 238 246 134 211 233 268 227 307 335 yoy 309%10%9%-13%-41%-11%-2%9%69%46%44%2.72 3.31 4.13 4.08 3.70 3.46 2.95 3.05 3.05 3.60 4.11 3.98 3.86 3.95 3.87 9.3710.3710.6912.70 12.8313.7814.7115.25051015202018 2019 20H1 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q393%94%80%76%80%81%87%90%88%85%85%84%86%88%89%7%6%20%24%20%19%13%10%12%15%15%16%14%12%11%0%20%40%60%80%100%ASP 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 24 1 App 2 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 2017H2 6 25 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 9.0%18.7%14.4%8.8%7.7%14.2%10.6%18.0%37.7%24.3%20%+2000-0.9%0.1%3.7%2001 7.3%3.6%6.4%2002 0.0%3.0%4.1%2003-1.7%1.7%4.0%2004 0.1%2.1%5.9%2005 7.1%4.6%6.1%2006-2.2%-4.4%4.0%2007 1.0%-2.1%6.7%2008-2.2%-5.2%6.2%2009-0.9%0.6%4.3%2010 9.7%10.0%6.9%2011 4.1%3.4%6.8%2012 1.3%3.2%5.2%2013 3.9%5.5%6.2%2014 6.2%7.7%6.9%2015 12.2%11.9%7.8%2016 10.4%10.5%6.3%2017 8.7%7.6%3.4%2018 4.8%6.8%3.5%2019 2.8%3.2%1.9%2020 11.0%11.5%4.4%2021-3.6%3.9%8.0%2022-2.6%-0.7%0.1%2017Q3,24 10%-20%2023H1 10%,20 10 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 1.2 26 2020 2021 20222020 10,359 12,393 13,976 12,449 14,274 15,787 6,109 8,530 10,569 2020 7,234 7,565 9,086 9,029 8,965 10,607 5,532 6,423 7,926 2021 8,040 8,372 9,042 10,017 7,100 7,234 2022 9,918 10,105 9,638 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 9,962 10,792 11,445 12,275 yoy 8.3%6.1%7.1%12,122 12,781 13,576 13,193 yoy 5.4%6.2%-5.6%6,002 7,617 9,009 11,316 yoy 26.9%18.3%30.0%2023H1 1.2+1 1.3 2020 1.5 2 2023H1 1.1+2023H1 6 24 4.67 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 27 28 408 23H1 6 24 6 30 6 6 4.67 24 12 23 7 7 1 2 150-180 120-130 3 4 30%-40%心在远方，路在脚下1.2 1 2 3 28 Wingstop/1 1000 50%2 60%3 CDP 2 60%2020-2022 心在远方，路在脚下1.2 1000 60%2943.8%48.7%52.2%51.8%47.3%43.2%4.4%4.0%4.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 4.0 6.1 8.6 10.9 2.1 3.0 3.9 2.3 3.5 4.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 2017-2018 6 1/App 2023 60%36%IT IT 2 1000 50%3 CDP App CDP 心在远方，路在脚下1.2/30 Drive-thru digital sales product mix 1 2 1 2 心在远方，路在脚下1.3/31/SKU idea 1/1 2 2 1/2 1 2/2 心在远方，路在脚下2.1 33 Bloomberg PE 0500100015002000250005010015020025030006/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 13/01 14/01 15/01 16/01 17/01 18/01 19/01 20/01 21/01 22/01 23/01 PE1 2008 20%+2009-2016 10%-15%2017 5%-10%2 20 19 1 2 2009 APP 2018 5 3200 3 2018 Drive-thru 3 2008 30%+PE 50-100 2008 20%PE 40-50 20 PE 心在远方，路在脚下05010015020025002040608010012014015/06 15/12 16/06 16/12 17/06 17/12 18/06 18/12 19/06 19/12 20/06 20/12 21/06 21/12 22/06 22/12 23/06 PE2.1 Wingstop34Wingstop 1+13%2011-2022 11 3%2 75%3 10%60%4 7 25%PE 30 100 70-80 Bloomberg PE 心在远方，路在脚下2.1 35 Bloomberg PE 010020030040050060005101520253035404504/07 05/07 06/07 07/07 08/07 09/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 13/07 14/07 15/07 16/07 17/07 18/07 19/07 20/07 21/07 22/07 23/07 PE1+20 2016 2010-2020 11 2 3+2010 App 2016 60%2009-2018 CAGR 10%CAGR 20%PE 10 35 PE 25-30 心在远方，路在脚下2.1 36 Bloomberg PE 020406080100120140010203040506070809010092/0793/0794/0795/0796/0797/0798/0799/0700/0701/0702/0703/0704/0705/0706/0707/0708/0709/0710/0711/0712/0713/0714/0715/0716/0717/0718/0719/0720/0721/0722/0723/07 PE 1+08 20%+09 13 12 2 3 4 2010 16 27 2006 PE 40 PE 15 30 10%心在远方，路在脚下2.1 37 1/1 Drive-thru 2 3 2 1 2020 Wingstop PE 60 10%2 3 3 1 PE 50-60 100 2 15-20 7-8 3 2-3 30 心在远方，路在脚下2.2 38 Bloomberg Wind 010203040506070809002040608010012017/0317/0517/0717/0917/1118/0118/0318/0518/0718/0918/1119/0119/0319/0519/0719/0919/1120/0120/0320/0520/0720/0920/1121/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/09 PE-Current year1 10 70 1 2 T+1 3 19-21+/PE 20 60 PE 25-30 心在远方，路在脚下2.2 39 Bloomberg Wind PE-TTM 0501001502002503000102030405060708090 PE-Current year1 5000 1 2 3 16-20 60%+PE 40-60 2020 3-10%PE 20-30 心在远方，路在脚下2.2 40 Bloomberg Wind PE-TTM 01002003004005006007000510152025303540 PE-Current year1 SKU 1000 200 1 2 3 20%+2020 2021 PE 40 100+PE 20-30 心在远方，路在脚下2.2+41 1+1 2 3 2 1 2 2-3 3+2021 3+2015-2020 alpha 210 21 1206 THANKS/
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