20231116_东方证券_农业行业2024年度投资策略:拐点灯明成长不息_25页.pdf

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|2023Q4 2024H1 23 23Q4 24H1 23Q4 2024 2023 10 17 130(300498)(603477)(002840)(600975)(002714)(000876)23(002311)(002385)(000998)(002041)(300087)(002891)(300673)(301498)/2023 11 16 021-63325888*6076 S0860511010001 2024 2.5.5 5 6 7 8.10.11.11 12 14.17 17 18.22.22 WUFUyRrMoNnMsMoNqNqPnM6MbP6MtRoOpNmPiNmNnMlOoPsN6MpOmMwMtRpPNZmQpN 3 1 2023.5 2.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.7 8.7 9 23.7 10 100.7 11 2023 1-9 5%.8 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.9 16 2023 1-9 2.32 0.2%.10 17.10 18 11 11 10.3/.11 19 11 11 6.7/.11 20 11 11 10.3/.11 21 11 11 40/18/.11 22.12 23.12 24 2017 34%.12 25 2020 CR4 78%.12 26.15 27.15 28 9 1.12+29.35%.17 29 9 1.07+27.90%.17 30.17 31.17 32 2022+14%.18 33 2008 2020 GDP.18 36 2022+8%.18 4 37.19 38.19 39“”.21 1 2024.9 2.13 3.14 4.14 5.16 6 10 17.16 7.19 8.20 5 2023 22 7 10 2022 12 23 8 9 1 2023 wind 2021 6 2022 4 2022 5 2022 12 1%2022 10 10 2023 2 2023 10 2023 1.61 10%2 3 9.64 10.02 12.78 12.94 11.49 14.83 17.15 14.55 051015202530354045/22:-55-35-1552545-12.0-7.0-2.03.08.0%MoM YoY05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 2023 6/6-10 2015 MSY 4 5 2022 Q4 130 2023 2023 10 122-6%11 24Q1 6 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0000.000.200.400.600.801.001.202009-122010-102011-082012-062013-042014-022014-122015-102016-082017-062018-042019-022019-122020-102021-082022-062023-04/6-10 6-10 60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%891011122021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/09 1051101151201251301351401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 2023 1 2 23 21 22 23 7 7 8 9 23 10 100 1011121314151617 87888990%1.101.301.501.701.9001/0602/0603/0604/0605/0606/0607/0608/0609/0610/0611/0612/062017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 20230102030402020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2023/01/120KG 130KG 140KG 150KG 8 1 18 2 12 2023 1-9 128 5%2023 25.93%7 11 2 20.50%6.42pct 11 2023 1-9 5%12 2023Q4 23 23Q4 24H1 23H1 24H1 1-9 0.3-0.7%4.9%23Q4 11 3 246 212 39 44 6 11 3 7KG 145/200 13 14-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0100200300400500 YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10 9 15 23Q4 24H1 2024 2024Q1 13.8/2024Q2 2024Q2-Q4 14.3 16.0 20.5/1 2024 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 E 2024Q1 E 0%-4%-7%-9%2024Q1 E 2024Q2 E 2024Q3 E 2024Q4 E 11%3%1%-7%/3.06 3.06 3.00 3.06-2%0%0%0%-10%-1%-1%24%/13.8 14.3 16.0 20.5-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/:01002003004005006007008002021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062023/082023/10/7KG-2.50%-2.00%-1.50%-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%1M23 2M23 3M23 4M23 5M23 6M23 7M23 8M23 9M23 10 2023 1-9 2.32 5.3%1.07 10.3%2386 0.2%6882 4.9%1876 9.3%2023 2024 16 2023 1-9 2.32 0.2%2023 10.6%0.1%11 3 13.85 15.67 20.12/-0.8%-0.1%-0.9%-6.4%-9.2%-7.5%5 17 1000150020002500300035004000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202310121416182022242628/:11 11 11 10.3/-4.7%+9%9-10/11 11 6.7/-4%-25%18 11 11 10.3/19 11 11 6.7/11 11 10.3/-5.5%-16%11 11 40/18/-22%20 11 11 10.3/21 11 11 40/18/02468101214162020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/024681012142020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/092023/11/0510152025302020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/092023/11/05101520253035/40/12 2023 10 17 37 14 2022 6 2023 22 USDA 2014 96/48.7%1 2003 2017 34%9%6.9%2 Vilmorin&Cie 2020 CR4 78%23 USDA 24 2017 34%25 2020 CR4 78%0501001502002503003502001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014/13 Vilmorin&CIE 3 2021 2022 2023 5 20 90%95%5.6%-11.6%4 60%2021 1+6%2 60%21 90/2 2021/506.96 537.38 6.00%/50 126.58 126.58/1283.42 1360.43/27.47 27.47/1310.89 1387.90 5.87%/1148.82 1136.15-1.10%21.12 8.45-60%/162.07 251.75 55%75%10%10%5%9/21/22 6.5 90%130 50+25+25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%41%010002000300040005000200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 36%32%5%5%22%AgReliant 14 3 1%0.58 0.58 0.29 1.46 4%2.33 2.33 1.17 5.83 20%11.66 11.66 5.83 29.14 55%32.05 32.05 16.03 80.13 80%46.62 46.62 23.31 116.56 90%52.45 52.45 26.22 131.12 10 17 22 DBN9936 DBN9858 DBN3601T 2023 10 17 9 125+10 17 2 Bt11 GA21 Bt11 MIR162 GA21 4 DBN9936+cry1Ab,epsps 303D 505D 100D 968D 958D 803D 909D 30F 1D 699D 1331D 899SK 1572KK 605D 533D 20065KK 105D 187D 391K DBN9858+epsps,pat 303H DBN9501+vip3Aa19,pat-15 DBN3601T(DBN9936xDBN9501)+cry1Ab,epsps,vip3Aa,pat 566DT 3861KK 125+cry1Ab/cry2Aj,g10evo-epsps 505R 303R 968TK 372R 998HZ 919HZ 958GK 986GE 207R 8 cry1Ab,cry2Ab-nCX-1 CdP450,cp4epsps-&BFL4-2+cry1Ab,cry1F,mepsps Bt11 x GA21+cry1Ab,pat,mepsps 105WG Bt11 x MIR162 x GA21+cry1Ab,pat,mepsps,vip3Aa20 901ZL GA21 mepsps-ND207 mcry1Ab,mcry2Ab 958K 1331K 108Z 177K CC-2 MaroAcc-2021 5 10 20 16.96%24.14%35.43%-0.41pct-0.81pct+0.40pct CR4 78%CR5 2010 36.24%2021 16.39%10 26 27 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021CR5 CR10 CR150%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 CR5 16 2004 958 335 958 335 2004-2021 958 2022 303 958 3 303 505 839 5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1 958 3441 958 3074 958 2818 958 2798 958 1825 303 1621 2 335 2526 335 2027 968 1459 968 1493 303 1501 958 1453 3 968 2016 968 1738 335 1333 303 1460 505 1304 505 1377 4 605 1427 605 1369 605 1278 605 1272 968 1302 968 1242 5 20 799 1 751 303 1234 505 1168 605 1288 605 1219 6 702 756 702 701 505 776 335 1132 335 833 3 609 7 206 587 303 653 20 564 808 543 622 1331 531 8 30 481 20 606 702 521 702 485 808 480 335 475 9 998 478 206 568 808 498 206 439 702 478 368 450 10 16 437 808 511 206 493 20 370 1331 458 839 443 37 8 4 3 2 1 6 10 17 303D 505D 100D 505R 303R 303H 372R 207R 105WG 105D 187D 901ZL 958D 803D 566DT 605D 533D 17 391K 968TK 968D 1331D 1331K 899SK 998HZ 919HZ 108Z 1572KK 909D 958K 30F 1D 699D 958GK 177K 986GE 20065KK 3861KK 2023 9 1.12+29.35%+7.87%1.07+27.90%+7.63%28 9 1.12+29.35%29 9 1.07+27.90%9 2515.30 49.20%16.20%2022 8 1660.18 18.10%25%738.97 6.86%7.16%30 31 02040608010012014001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 202302040608010012014001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 2022 471+14%2009-2022 CAGR 6%2008 2020 GDP 32 2022+14%33 2008 2020 GDP 2022 70 8%2013-2022 CAGR 23%34 2022+8%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/09-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/09 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01002003004005002007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 YoY-5%0%5%10%15%20%200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 GDP YoY 19 2022 CR10 24%22 5.8%1pct 7%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.8 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.1 5.0 4.6 4.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.4-0.3 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 4.3 5.4 6.8 5.9 4.6 3.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7-0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 2012-2018 2019-2021 2022 35 36-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050607080 YoY 20 2022 1 1 11 1 2022 1 1 11 1 Zeal 8 Zeal 0 PFNZ 62%5.0 100%05101520253001020304050-05101520253035 21 37 22(300498)(603477)(002840)(600975)(002714)(000876)23(002311)(002385)(000998)(002041)(300087)(002891)(300673)(301498)23 1%600975 1%24 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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