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2023 11 17 证券分析师：马成龙 证券分析师：朱锟旭021-60933150 021-S0980518100002 S0980523060003|Vertiv Vertiv Vertiv 2016 2020 IT 70%20%10%2023 49.98+23.8%6.11+872.1%2.28+355.2%AI 20%Vertiv 2023 800 2023-2028 7.4%-9.4%2023 575 2023-2028 10%-12%2023 229.2 2023-2028 7%2023 166 2023-2028 16%Vertiv+UPS Vertiv;Vertiv 800 1500 150MW Vertiv 2023-2024 68.4/74.4 3.9/6.8 Vertiv WiseMDC UPS IDM-AI0YDWxOmRmPnMtNmPnQoRpO9PcM8OmOoOnPsRfQqRrQlOmNoR9PrQmMvPqRtMwMnQrR Vertiv01 02 03 04A 05 Vertiv 1 Vertiv Vertiv 2 Vertiv Vertiv VertivVertiv Vertiv 2016 2020 2023 11 Vertiv 27,000 130/2740 2022 55.92 IT IT/UPS IT 3 Vertiv 2023 11 Vertiv Vertiv Vertiv 1987 IT Liebert Marconi(2004)Knurr AG(2006)Avocent(2009)Chloride(2010)2016(Vertiv)Vertiv 2020 GSAH 21 E+I Engineering Powerbar Gulf LLC Vertiv 8 Alber Avocent Cybex E+I Energy Labs Geist Liebert NetSure,IT 200 3,500 Vertiv 1 Vertiv 1985 ASCO,1987 Liebert Corporation,2000(ASCO,Liebert,Astec/Nortel Advanced Power Systems,Ericsson Energy Systems)2001 Avansys,Network Power India 2004 Marconi 2006 Knurr AG2009 Avocent KVM 2010 Chloride,UPS,2016(Vertiv)2018 Vertiv Energy Labs Geist,PDU 2020 Vertiv GSAH NYSE VRT 2021Vertiv E+I Engineering Ireland Limited Powerbar Gulf LLC +ITVertiv IT/IT 4 Vertiv Vertiv +IT Vertiv IT 5 Vertiv Vertiv +/Vertiv/6 Vertiv Vertiv 7 Vertiv Wind 8 Vertiv2022 Wind 70%70%2020-2022 Vertiv 2022 56.92 13.87%2022 61%/26%/13%/40%/35%/25%/70%/20%/10%2023 10 25 11%2023 16%1.1 49.98 23.80%68.38 20.14%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 61.06%26.01%12.92%9 Vertiv Vertiv 5%70%20%10%10 Vertiv Wind 11 Vertiv23 Vertiv Americas APAC EMEA 2022 48%28%24%40%18%AI/2023 28.24 2022 46.69%2023 10.97 12.26%23 10.76 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 12 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind 13 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind 2023+872%2023+872%2023 50 5%2023 6.11+872 12.2%2.28+355.2%4.6%2023 2.56+219.58%14.78%1.2 4500 0.94+343.9%5.46%2.062.402.632.316.11-1.41-1.841.20.772.276-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%(3)(2)(1)012345672019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 GAAP-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3%14 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind 15 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind IT 2023 34.4%2023 2021-2022 2021/2022 30.5%/28.4%12.4ppt 1.9ppt 2023 34.4%33.1%/38.8%AI 23 26.76%22 15.62%16.02%23 24.40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 16 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind 17 Vertiv2019-2023 Wind 2019-2023 2023 1000 1300 4400 2.52%2022-2.53 2023 2023 4.64 217.46%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%024681012142019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%(3)(2)(1)01234562019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 18 2022 Cloudscene 19 IT Gartner 2023 10 2027 5000AI AI Gartner 2022 2270 19.7%IT 2022 Cloudscene GenAI 2025 20%Gartner 2024/2025 2377/2602 5%/10%AI(GenAI)2025 2027 5000 2024-2027 CAGR 24.3%2700487456 443328287 28126405001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000(%)(%)(%)2,270.21 19.7 2,377 4.7 2,602 9.5 7,663-6.3 6,893-10.0 7,225 4.8 8,113 10.7 9,162 12.9 10,424 13.8 13,057 7.5 14,010 7.3 15,473 10.4 14,231-1.9 14,493 1.8 14,973 3.3 45,334 2.9 46,936 3.5 50,698 8.0 20 Dgtl Infra 21 Shiqiang Zhu Intelligent Computing:The Latest Advances,Challenges and Future 2022 Intelligent Computing AI TCO Capex Opex Opex 25%AI AI 2018 3-5 22 Dgtl Infra 23 Dgtl Infra+60%+60%-70%1 15%-20%2 40-45 PDU UPS/3 HVAC/20%-25%CRAC CRAH 4 15%-20%/(MMR)625-1135 IT 700-1200 70 60MW 4.2-7.7$25$75$80$160$105$235$280$460$125$215$15$25$100$200$520$900$625$1,135 5,000-20,000 20,000-100,000 500-2,000 2,000-10,000 10,000-100,000 1-5 5-20 20-100+15%-20%40%-45%20%-25%15%-20%HVAC/24 25 1 UPS 18%1 380V 2 3,4(UPS)4(PDU)5 DCIM/PUE 1)380V 2 3)4 UPS 5)UPS PDU PDU IT23%20%18%8%8%7%6%4%3%UPS 26 Mordor Intelligence 27 2019 Vertiv 1 2028 300 Vertiv Mordor Intelligence 2023 229.2 2028 314 2023-2028 CAGR 6.50%1 2 Vertiv ABB Vertiv2019 Vertiv 16%8%7%229.23140501001502002503003502023 2028 16%8%7%69%30 2020 UPS CCW Research 24%15%13%11%9%7%7%5%9%28 UPS CCW Research 29 2018-2020 UPS CCW Research UPSUPS UPS UPS UPS P 6KVA 20KVA)100KVA UPS UPS CCW Research 2020 UPS 39%UPS 68%38%34%32%63%66%68%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 29 UPS Mordor Intelligence 112.4138.316.4 20.60204060801001201401602023 2028 UPS UPS 30 2020 UPS Omdia UPS 2028 138 Vertiv Mordor Intelligence UPS 2023 112.4 2028 138.3 2023-2028 CAGR 4.23%1 UPS 2 UPS 2023-2028 CAGR 4.67%UPS UPS Vertiv Omdia,2020 UPS/23.5%/12.5%/11.5%CCW Research 2020 UPS/14.9%/13.3%/11.5%UPS ABB UPS 23.5%12.5%11.5%6.5%4.0%4.0%3.5%2.5%32.0%14.9%13.3%11.5%8.7%7.3%6.9%5.6%4.9%4.6%22.3%31 2020 UPS CCW Research 2 ODCC UPS HVDC UPS HVDC 1 UPS IDC UPS 2 HVDC DC AC UPS HVDC UPS HVDC UPS HVDC BAT HVDC HVDC Vertiv AC UPS HVDC PFC LLC 80%-90%(97%)96%(98%)30%-40%32 Mordor Intelligence 33 2019 Vertiv 2 2028 345 Vertiv Mordor Intelligence 2023 165.6 2028 345.1 2023-2028 CAGR 15.82%1 CRAH CRAC 2 Vertiv Vertiv2019 Vertiv 32%16%5%Omdia 2020 2018 2019 Vertiv 23.5%10%Vertiv 37.5%20%165.6345.10501001502002503003504002023 2028 32%16%5%48%34 CPU/GPU TDP Intel Nvidia 35 Vertiv#1 AIAI/AI HPC CPU GPU Intel CPU TDP 350W NVIDIA H100 GPU TDP 700W CPU/GPU 50%AI 80%20Kw/20Kw/AI 38 PUE 36 2019-2025 37 2023 2023 6#2 40%44%13%3%IT 2022 2700 3.1%2025 5%PUE PUE Power Usage Effectiveness IT 1 IT IT PUE PUE 1.5 PUE 1.05-1.2 1.51.21.091.05000111112 39 40 CPU CPU CDU ICT CDU 42 41 1 CDU&2 CDU IT IT 3 43,IDC 2023H1 90%10%PUE 80%100%44 2023H1()IDC(2023 45 5 2021 2 10kW IT 20kW 40kW 10%14%2023 8 4.5 TCO 25%30%46 4 25 ICT 3-4 10-15 2025/9 3 47 Mordor Intelligence 38.0118.10204060801001201402023 2028 5/2028 118 Mordor Intelligence 2023 38.0 2028 118.1 2023-2028 CAGR 25.44%22.9%34.2%Alfa Laval Asetek Vertiv Asetek RITTAL DaiKiN Johnson Controls BlueStream Alfa Laval 48 IT IT Vertiv 49 Vertiv 3 IT+180 Vertiv Vertiv2019 2023 IT IT 70 24%Vertiv 11%2023 110 Vertiv 12%11%5%Vertiv 11%24%7%7%51%12%11%5%72%51 Mordor Intelligence 50 Vertiv 1 Vertiv 30%-50%2 Mordor Intelligence 2023 255.5 2028 604.1 2023-2028 CAGR 18.78%IBM Vertiv Dell EMC HPE 255.5604.101002003004005006007002023 2028 52 Vertiv Mordor Intelligence Vertiv Vertiv 2023 800 Vertiv 2023 800 2023-2028 7.4%-9.4%2023 575 71%2023-2028 10%-12%23 24 AI 23 1.1 23 3000 68.38 21%7000-8000 10.2-10.3 15%2024 24 1-53 Vertiv2023 Vertiv 2023-2028CAGR 229.2 6-7%19.1 40%165.6 15-16%16.8 35%180.0-12.0 25%574.8 10-12%47.9 70%140.8 1-3%13.7 20%92.8 2-4%6.8 10%808.4 7.4-9.4%68.4 100%54 Vertiv Vertiv Vertiv Vertiv+UPS UPS Vertiv IT 2+LiebertITA2LiebertEXSLiebertoEXMNetSure 2000NetSure5000NetSure7000LiebertXDMLiebertDSELiebertXDCybexKVMVertiv VR Rack 55 Vertiv Vertiv 3-Vertiv 800 1500 150MW Vertiv IT 2023 2 Vertiv Vertiv MegaMod Vertiv MegaMod Plus(PFM)0.5 1 2 IT 40%(EMEA)2022 9 Vertiv Vertiv IT 56 Vertiv Vertiv 3-Vertiv Vertiv AI 15/1%0.3 Liebert XDM Liebert DCD Liebert XDC Liebert VIC Liebert VIC 100kW PUE 1.05 2023 10 25 ALDC2023 Vertiv 57 Vertiv Vertiv 59 Vertiv Vertiv 58 Vertiv Vertiv 4-241 Vertiv 24/10/10/4 23 Q3 11 2 Vertiv 200 EMEA 2 UPS 9 20 Vertiv,3 Vertiv(VOS)Anders Karlborg 61 Vertiv Vertiv 60 Vertiv Vertiv 5-Vertiv 2,300 140 IT OEM 2022 20,000 2500 Bonus Incentive Everyday Sales Incentive Cross Sell Incentive Purchase Frequency Incentive Spotlight Incentive 2022 48%/28%/24%2023 23 57%/22%/22%25 63 Vertiv Vertiv 62 Vertiv&Vertiv 6-58 Vertiv Meta AT&T Equinix Reliance Verizon Vertiv Vertiv 27,000 24 149 220 3,500 87%20 30 20 Vertiv 6 Vertiv%Bloomberg Marvell FY2023-FY2024 68.4/74.1 20.1%/8.8%Vertiv FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E 44.312 43.706 49.981 56.915 68.380 74.410%-1.37%14.36%13.87%20.14%8.82%32.79%33.72%30.47%28.39%33.83%33.99%26.326 24.577 29.004 34.753 44.238 47.881%-6.64%18.01%19.82%27.29%8.23%(%)59.41%56.23%58.03%61.06%64.69%64.35%12.989 13.248 14.387 14.806 15.9764 17.5229%1.99%8.60%2.91%7.90%9.68%(%)29.31%30.31%28.78%26.01%23.36%23.55%4.997 5.881 6.590 7.356 8.16516 9.0059%17.69%12.06%11.62%11.00%10.30%(%)11.28%13.46%13.19%12.92%11.94%12.10%7 Vertiv%Bloomberg Vertiv FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E 22.289 20.406 21.875 27.286 37.13 40.3587yoy-8.45%7.20%24.74%36.08%8.70%(%)50.30%46.69%43.77%47.94%54.22%54.24%4.50 4.97 4.44 4.26 8.96 10.07 20.20%24.36%20.30%15.62%24.13%24.96%12.254 10.734 11.889 16.084 24.1046 25.4301yoy-12.40%10.76%35.28%49.87%5.50%(%)54.98%52.60%54.35%58.95%64.92%63.01%6.898 6.626 7.057 7.546 8.4898 9.4133yoy-3.94%6.50%6.93%12.51%10.88%(%)30.95%32.47%32.26%27.66%22.87%23.32%3.137 3.046 2.929 3.656 4.5356 4.9699yoy-2.90%-3.84%24.82%24.06%9.58%(%)14.07%14.93%13.39%13.40%12.22%12.31%6 Vertiv%Bloomberg Vertiv FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E 12.773 13.683 16.089 16.013 15.9565 17.0914yoy 7.12%17.58%-0.47%-0.35%7.11%(%)28.83%31.31%32.19%28.13%23.30%22.97%1.76 1.97 2.53 2.74 2.52 2.97 13.75%14.40%15.75%17.14%15.80%17.36%7.548 8.523 9.717 9.493 9.2082 10.2606yoy 12.92%14.01%-2.31%-3.00%11.43%(%)59.09%62.29%60.40%59.28%57.71%60.03%3.611 3.702 4.218 4.417 4.6156 4.8204yoy 2.52%13.94%4.72%4.50%4.44%(%)28.27%27.06%26.22%27.58%28.93%28.20%1.614 1.458 2.154 2.103 2.1327 2.2772yoy-9.67%47.74%-2.37%1.41%6.78%(%)12.64%10.66%13.39%13.13%13.37%13.32%8 Vertiv%Bloomberg Vertiv FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E 9.243 9.616 12.017 13.616 15.0166 16.0961yoy 4.04%24.97%13.31%10.29%7.19%(%)20.86%22.00%24.04%23.92%21.93%21.63%0.77 1.06 2.18 2.35 3.54 3.92 8.29%10.97%18.11%17.23%23.56%24.38%4.866 5.298 7.395 9.209 10.6689 10.899yoy 8.88%39.58%24.53%15.85%2.16%(%)52.65%55.10%61.54%67.63%71.05%67.71%2.872 2.91 3.124 2.81 2.8441 3.4596yoy 1.32%7.35%-10.05%1.21%21.64%(%)31.07%30.26%26.00%20.64%18.94%21.49%1.505 1.408 1.498 1.597 1.5036 1.8376yoy-6.45%6.39%6.61%-5.85%22.21%(%)16.28%14.64%12.47%11.73%10.01%11.42%Vertiv FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E 44.31 43.71 49.98 56.92 68.38 74.41%-1.37%14.36%13.87%20.14%8.82%29.78 28.97 34.75 40.75 45.25 49.12%-2.73%19.97%17.26%11.03%8.55%Gross Profit 14.53 14.74 15.23 16.16 23.13 25.29%1.42%3.32%6.13%43.13%9.34%32.79%33.72%30.47%28.39%33.83%33.99%2.83%-9.65%-6.80%19.13%0.48%11.01 10.08 11.09 11.78 13.13 13.9%-8.45%10.02%6.22%11.46%5.86%1.46 1.29 1.44 2.16 1.78 1.81%-11.64%11.63%50.00%-17.59%1.69%1.46 2.26 1.51 2.07 2.09 1.69%54.79%-33.19%37.09%0.97%-19.14%()-0.01 0.26 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.00%-2700%-88.46%133.33%85.71%-100.00%()2.06 2.4 2.63 2.31 8.46 10.52%17%9.58%-12.17%266.23%24.35%4.65%5.49%5.26%4.06%12.37%14.14%4.09 2.43 4.04 4.39 14.34 16.08%-41%66.26%8.66%226.65%12.13%3.1 1.5 0.91 1.47 1.79 1.67%-52%-39.33%61.54%21.77%-6.70%()0.37 0.73 0.47 0.9 1.88 2.37%97%-35.62%91.49%108.89%26.06%28.04 54.13 32.33 28.14%93.05%-40.27%-12.96%GAAP-1.41-1.84 1.2 0.77 3.9 6.79%30%165.22%-35.83%406.49%74.10%-3.18%-4.21%2.40%1.35%5.70%9.13%Bloomberg 9(2023 11 15)Bloomberg 10(2023 11 15)Bloomberg()(%)GAAP()(%)GAAP(%)FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2022A FY2023E FY2024EVertiv 56.92 68.38 74.41 0.77 3.88 4.50 0.53 1.72 2.14YoY 13.87%20.14%8.82%-35.83%406.49%74.10%-30.26%224.53%24.42%Schneider 359.97 385.65 404.62 36.62 44.16 48.08 7.49 8.31 8.88YoY 5.31%7.13%4.92%-3.36%20.58%8.88%3.29%10.95%6.86%Eaton 207.52 231.25 246.96 24.62 31.42 36.13 7.57 9.01 9.93YoY 5.73%11.44%6.79%14.83%27.62%14.99%14.35%19.02%10.21%ABB 294.46 320.49 327.60 24.75 36.50 37.18 1.30 1.96 2.00YoY 1.73%8.84%2.22%-47.67%47.47%1.86%-42.73%50.77%2.04%EV/EBITDA EV/Sales PE2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024EVertiv14.2 17.1 14.1 1.5 2.8 2.6 82.2 25.3 20.4Schneider11.6 14.7 13.8 2.4 3.0 2.9 23.6 21.3 19.9Eaton19.2 20.1 18.1 3.4 4.3 4.0 30.1 25.3 23.0ABB12.3 12.6 12.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 28.6 18.9 18.6 A Vertiv/IT AI AI 2025 2027 5000 2024-2027 CAGR 24.3%AI AI Vertiv+25 ICT 2025 30%-50%WiseMDC UPS IDM-65 2020 UPS CCW Research 64 UPS UPS 1988 30 UPS 2009 UPS UPS 2022 56.5+16.1%28.2 49.9%30.9%UPS UPS IDC UPS 2015 UPS.2022 UPS CCW Research 2020 UPS 14.9%UPS 13.3%11.5%14.9%13.3%11.5%8.7%7.3%6.9%5.6%4.9%4.6%22.3%67 66 UPS 1993 IDC UPS UPS 22 23.3 53%UPS IDU IDM IDR IOU ICTResearch 2021 UPS 9 69 XSpace 68 2022 49.3%37.7%CDU 11 15 XSpace 71 70 2000 2022 5-PUE 1.15 72 2020-2023 11 PE Wind A 11 2023 11 15 Wind EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2023EVRT.N Vertiv 43.59 166.27 0.53 1.72 2.14 82.2 25.3 20.4 9.7 EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2023E002335.SZ 29.74 139.39 0.54 1.53 2.03 43.10 19.46 14.67 3.21002518.SZ 27.99 168.52 1.13 1.70 2.34 24.77 16.50 11.98 3.85002837.SZ 26.67 152.06 0.64 0.69 0.93 41.67 38.82 28.69 6.08301018.SZ 29.17 78.30 0.69 0.86 1.19 42.28 33.85 24.51 3.44020406080100120 002335.SZ 002518.SZ 002837.SZ 301018.SZ 1 AI 2 3 4 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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