资源描述
2000-2022()()S03505221100044 S 2023 11 14 1 2 2000-2022*2023-09-19-0.1432-0.0764-0.00950.05730.12420.1910 300 300 1M 3M 12M-5.7%-4.6%-4.3%300-2.3%-7.8%-5.5%XVBYzQtOpMnMsMmPmRpQrQ6MaO9PpNqQpNpMiNrQqRiNpOqN7NoPpPuOrRvMwMoOsP 3 5 2000-2003 2000 2001 2004-2008 2005 2006 DOC DPF 2009-2012 2013-2015 2013-2015 2013 2015 A 2016-2022(2020)2016 2018 2020 2020(2021)2021(2022)2022 2022 77%2010 2011 23 40.61.2000-2003.81.1 2000.101.2 2001-2002.111.3 2003.122.2004-2008.132.1 2004-2005.152.2 2006-2007.172.3 2008.183.2009-2012.193.1 2009-2010.213.2 2011+FED.223.3 2012.234.2013-2015.244.1 2013.254.2 2014.274.3 2015.285.2016-2022.305.1 2016-2017.325.2 2018 V.345.3 2019.355.4 2020.365.5 2021.375.6 2022.406.416.1.426.2.436.3.446.4.456.5.46 57.487.1.497.2.507.3.517.4.528.539.56 60.7 1 2000-2022 0 2000-2022 2000 5 Wind 2023 11 10 05001000150020002500300035002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/81.2000-2003 9 2000-2003 2000 2001 1 2000-2003 2 2000-2003 Wind Forbes Advisor the NewYork Times 1999 19 pgm 70%pgm+2001 pgmFed+9 11+01 1 3 6%12 11 1.75%87.7 51%NYMEX 40 oz 100300500700900110013002000-01 2000-04 2000-07 2000-10 2001-01 2001-04 2001-07 2001-10 2002-01 2002-04 2002-07 2002-10 2003-01 2003-04 2003-07 2003-10/2001.03-2001.11 2002 32.5 2003 6 8-9 10 2000-2003 2000 2000 1 443/2 TOCOM 2 21 785 3 2 1.1 2000 3 2000-2003 Wind Forbes Advisor the NewYork Times 1999 19 pgm 70%pgm+2001 pgmFed+9 11+01 1 3 6%12 11 1.75%87.7 51%NYMEX 40 oz 100300500700900110013002000-01 2000-04 2000-07 2000-10 2001-01 2001-04 2001-07 2001-10 2002-01 2002-04 2002-07 2002-10 2003-01 2003-04 2003-07 2003-10/2001.03-2001.11 2002 32.5 2003 6 8-9 11 2000-2003 2001 2001 1 26 1090/16 2001 11 315/12 10.3 14.6%-24.4-16.5%2001 MLCC/2002 2002 2001 56%2001 Wind iFinD 1.2 2001-2002 4 5 1999-2004 808590951001051101151 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2001 2002 200353.0 52.7 57.0 61.2 65.8 70.3168.0147.4123.054.783.6136.15.56.57.910.511.615.0166.7 159.9144.386.597.8107.494.791.746.651.056.459.05.57.26.87.7 7.426.4-37.1-32.915.911.628.957.3-280-220-160-100-4020801402002601999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 12 6 7 1.3 2003 R=0.5249R=0.284R=0.7927R=0.1711R=0.36461002003004005006007008009001000110070 80 90 100 110 120 130/2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2003 5.1%1-4 5 8 Wind 1003005007009001,1001,3000510152025303540(/2002503003504004501003005007009001,1001,3002000-01 2001-01 2002-01 2003-01/(132.2004-2008 14 9 2004-2008 2004-2008 2005 2006 DOC DPF 2004-2006 2.Wind iFinD NORTHAM Forbes Advisor Stockpiling of Non-energy Raw Materials RPA Northam NYMEX 18.5 oz NYMEX 20 ozNYMEX TOCOM PGM Stillwater East Boulde 5 6 ZKB ETFETFS ETF 25 Anglo Platinum Amandelbult Lonmin Stillwater 1002003004005006007002004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07/2005 2005 15 10 2004-2006 2004-2008 2004 57.3+52.5 136.1 Gokhran Q3 2004 2004 2 47 10.6 1 7.4 9.9%2004 6%9.4%19.9%2000 6g 2004 3g 16.7%15.5%2004 2.1 2004-2005 Wind iFinD NORTHAM 1 2003 87.7 51%2003 2004 Q1 37.5 2004 2005 2006Q1 11 2003-2008 Northam NYMEX 18.5 oz NYMEX 20 ozNYMEX TOCOM PGM Stillwater East Boulde 5 6 1001502002503003504004502004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07/65.8 70.3 73.9 78.7 78.468.983.6136.188.991.3 86.576.511.615.028.134.9 44.445.897.8107.4 109.6 113.8128.8 12756.4 59.071.072.472.466 7.426.442.232.326.9 2828.957.329.837.849.618.0-260-200-140-80-20401001602202802003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 16 2004-2008 2005 2004 2005 9 2005Q4 10 200/12 9 295/258/2.1 2004-2005 13 2004-2006 14 2005 12 2005 Wind iFinD NORTHAM 4004204404604805005205405601501701902102302502702903101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12/(Northam NYMEX 18.5 oz NYMEX 20 ozNYMEX TOCOM PGM Stillwater East Boulde 5 6 1001502002503003504004502004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07/16018020022024026028001020304050607080(/17 15 2006-2008 2004-2008 2006 2005 2004-2005 2000 DOC DPF 2006 2007(ETF)2.2 2006-2007 16 2006-2008 Wind iFinD Stockpiling of Non-energy Raw Materials RPA Forbes Advisor PGM Stillwater East Boulde 5 ZKB ETFETFS ETF25 Anglo Platinum Amandelbult Lonmin Stillwater 1002003004005006007002006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07/500600700800900100011001001502002503003504004505005506002006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07/(18 19 20 17 18 2.3 2008 R=0.1711R=0.3646R=0.3466R=0.2755R=0.0549R=0.835310015020025030035040045050070 75 80 85 90 95 100 105/2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004-2008 2008 DOC DPF 2008 2008 Wind iFinD 65.8 70.3 73.9 78.7 78.468.983.6136.188.991.3 86.576.511.615.028.134.9 44.445.897.8107.4 109.6 113.8128.8 12756.4 59.071.072.472.466 7.426.442.2 32.326.9 2828.957.329.8 37.849.6 18.0-260-200-140-80-20401001602202802003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003200420052006200720082009y=1.0845x+0.0349R=0.7671-20%-10%0%10%20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%100200300400500600700020406080100120140(/193.2009-2012 20 21 2009-2012 2009-2012 3.Wind iFinD INVESTORS WIKI the WHITE HOUSE BARRICK 8250 300 IMF 200 NERSA 24.8%25.8%25.9%4 11 1 9 Fed QE2 12+ETF 1 17%Fed 12 1300 2012Q1 8%5 11%Lonmin 8 27.35%Fed QE3 1002003004005006007008009002009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07/2010 21 22 2009-2010 2009-2012 2009 2009 2008 5.3%2010 2010 2010 4 9 4 Q4 89.3%2010 43.4+37.8%158.2 75.2%3.1 2009-2010 Wind iFinD INVESTORS WIKI the WHITE HOUSE BARRICK 23 2009-2010 8250 300 IMF 200 NERSA 24.8%25.8%25.9%4 11 1 9 Fed QE2 12+ETF 1002003004005006007008009002009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07/2010 200300400500600700800900020406080100120140160180200(/22 24 2011-2012 2009-2012 2011 2011 10.3%ETF 2011 Q4 858.0/3 11-17 5.6%4.5%6 7 9 FED 3.2 2011+FED1 17%Fed 12 1300 2012Q1 8%5 11%Lonmin 8 17.45%Fed QE3 5005506006507007508008509002011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07/25 2009-2012 Wind iFinD 68.9 67.274.8 72.6 66.976.5 75.877.1 76.774.545.840.552.467.665.51271151581741896666676763 282217141318.019.3-15.033.6-31.6-280-220-160-100-4020801402002602008 2009 2010 2011 2012 23 28 2010 29/26 2009-2012 27 2009 3.3 2012 2009-2012 2012 W 1-2 3 4 5 7 8 8-9 8 9 11 2012 11 R=0.7969R=0.1356R=0.1625R=0.811310020030040050060070080090070 75 80 85 90/2009 2010 2011 201220062007200820092010201120122013y=1.2576x+0.0358R=0.9564-20%0%20%40%60%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Wind iFinD 1.01.52.02.53.02012 2013 2014 2015/7075808590958001000120014001600180020002009-01-02 2010-01-02 2011-01-02 2012-01-02/244.2013-2015 25 2013-2015 2013 2015 2013 2014 4.30 2013-2015 Wind iFinD Tire Business E SMMT 1/14%/46.38%6 9%8 3 24 ETFAbsa Capital JSE ETF 5 Bimhab QE3 7 Lonmin 10 8.11 0.25pct 2015 9 10 1-16 12 31 1.6L 10 ETF 11 11-12 ETF5005506006507007508008509009502013-01 2013-07 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07/2 2014 Q2 6 85.4 qz ETF 2015 8 9 26 2013-2015 2013 4.1 2013 31 2013-2015 6”1/14%/46.38%6 21%8 ETF 3 24 ETFAbsa Capital JSE ETF3+16%5 Bimhab QE3 7 Lonmin 10 8.11 0.25pct 2015 9 10 1-16 12 31 1.6L 10 ETF 11 11-12 ETF 5005506006507007508008509009502013-01 2013-07 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07/2 2014 Q2 6 85.4 qz ETF 2015 8 9 Wind iFinD Tire Business E SMMT 27 34 2013-2015 2011-2012 35 2014/2015 3.9%/10.6%10.6%32 2013-2015 33 2013 4.2 2014 2013-2015 2014 2014 ETF 2014 8 5 9 1.01.41.82.22.63.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157080901001101201301401501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.71.11.51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152011201220132014201520162017y=0.8885x+0.0318R=0.22310%5%10%15%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Wind iFinD 28 38 2012-2015 39 2015 36 2013 37 2015 5-10 300 4.3 2015 2013-2015 2015+6%6%11%2015 ETF 2015 9 Q4 40 2015 EU15 53.6%42.3%4.1%52.1%43.5%4.5%20142015 Wind iFinD ACEA 66.9 69.960.376.1 72.974.5 71.773.469.0 78.865.5 69.7 74.870.170.5189200212 21722763 53505249131065-31.6-15.1-52.6-7.8-5.4-280-220-160-100-4020801402002602012 2013 2014 2015 2016 100011001200130014001500160017001800500550600650700750800850900950/(17002200270032003700420047005200570050055060065070075080085090095014-09 14-11 15-01 15-03 15-05 15-07 15-09 15-11/300 500550600650700750800850900050100150200250300(/295.2016-2022 30 41 2016-2022 2016-2022 5.Wind 04008001200160020002400280032002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/31 42 2016-2017 2016-2022 2016 2016 5.2%-2.9 5.1 2016-2017 Wind iFinD Business&Human Rights Resource Centre Metal Focus Forbes Advisor REUTERS Crown Oil Impala 14 2016 4 1111 52%8 18-Sibanye 22 Stillwater 1-2 Nymex Fed 25 bp Sibanye Stillwater CME NYMEX 6 4(95%Fed 25bp,1.25%25bpFed 25 bp400500600700800900100011002016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07/2017 9-11 32 45 46 43 2014-2018 44 2016-2022 2017 9.1 20 1.5 Tier3 5.0%2017 01002003004005006007008002014 2015 2016 2017 2018:80901001101201301401501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015 2016 2017 20181.501.701.902.102.302.502.702.903.103.301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 47 76.1 72.9 72.2 72.169.0 78.869.584.470.170.5 81.088.221722723925152 494849 6554-7.8-5.4-20.4-4.5-320-260-200-140-80-20401001602202802015 2016 2017 2018 5.1 2016-2017 Wind iFinD 50060070080090010001100120013001400050100150200250300(/33 49 2018 2016-2022 2018 V 2018 8 2018.9-2018.12 1 6 3.84%1237.5%5.2 2018 V Wind Forbes Advisor BBC 500 Fed 25 bp 600 2030 50%Fed 25bpFed 25bp80085090095010001050110011501200125013002018-01 2018-07/2018 7-8 9 50 2017-2023 1%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202301 0.38 4.33 11.51 4.66 0.02 0.86 2.3202 0.59 4.42 9.49 4.02 0.87 0.59 1.6203 1.13 3.88 3.99 3.49 0.74 0.32 1.4604 3.00 4.91 2.98 1.33 0.36 0.30 1.1105 3.26 5.00 3.06 0.93 0.04 0.37 1.1406 3.72 3.84 2.78 0.54 0.05 0.99 0.7207 5.23 4.58 1.32 0.40 0.04 0.86 0.1808 3.23 7.36 2.34-0.24 0.13 1.17 0.4309 3.23 5.76 8.02-0.30 0.00 1.39-10 6.74 8.31 6.78-0.01 0.00 1.92-11 4.87 10.60 7.20 0.05 0.17 2.75-12 4.74 37.50 4.76-0.41-0.30 2.89-48 R=0.8367R=0.6539R=0.0611R=0.0044R=0.09536001000140018002200-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0/3-1%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 34 52 2019 2019-2022 2019 2019 Euro 6d-TEMP 2019 14%9%2019 3 6 7 9 Nymex 8 7 9 12 5.3 2019 Wind Metal Focus Forbes Advisor BBC 53 2019 51 2019 1 11.51%1 1%Fed1 1800 Nymex 5 16.4%-5 26.4 2016 10 AMCU 17000 AMCU 48%35 5.4%30 2019 30 50 3 10-45 9 12 10 bp9 ISM 47.8 2010 QEEskom 11001200130014001500160017001800190020002019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11/05101520253035 18 2016 2017 2018 2019 202055.6%36.7%5.9%1.8%57.8%31.6%8.7%2.0%20182019 35 54 2020 2016-2022 2020 2020 2781/3 3 16 44%2020 V 2020-2.6%-11.4%5.4 2020 Bloomberg crown oil Metal Focus Forbes Advisor Wind iFinD WPIC Reuters 1 10%1 37%6d-TEMP 6dFed 50bp 1%ACP 22%Fed 100bp MLF 2.95%45%Lac des Iles ACP Nymex 6 ACP B 90%1.9%1400160018002000220024002600280030002020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11/36 59 57 2020 1-5 58 ETF 55 2018-2022 56 1 5.4 2020 2016-2022 2020 a b 2020 13%50010001500200025003000020406080100120140160(/2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202301 0.38 4.33 11.51 4.66 0.02 0.86 2.3202 0.59 4.42 9.49 4.02 0.87 0.59 1.6203 1.13 3.88 3.99 3.49 0.74 0.32 1.4604 3.00 4.91 2.98 1.33 0.36 0.30 1.1105 3.26 5.00 3.06 0.93 0.04 0.37 1.1406 3.72 3.84 2.78 0.54 0.05 0.99 0.7207 5.23 4.58 1.32 0.40 0.04 0.86 0.1808 3.23 7.36 2.34-0.24 0.13 1.17 0.4309 3.23 5.76 8.02-0.30 0.00 1.39-10 6.74 8.31 6.78-0.01 0.00 1.92-11 4.87 10.60 7.20 0.05 0.17 2.75-12 4.74 37.50 4.76-0.41-0.30 2.89-0.050.551.051.552.052.553.051 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind iFinD Metal Focus 72.1 72.956.075.0 64.584.4 84.774.776.273.788.2 96.588.694.787.9251274243 241 240494439 41 37442 22-4.5-27.2-19.2-1.9-15.1-360-300-240-180-120-600601201802403002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 37 60 2021 2016-2022 2021 2021.01-2021.02 2020 12 2021 2 Nymex 30.2 3.9 2021 5.5 2021 SUV 1 80%PX Zimplats Ngwarati 21 15-20%Nymex 1.6%14001600180020002200240026002800300032002021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 2021-11/Wind iFinD Metal Focus S&P Global Commodity Insights Market Screener WPIC 38 63 2021 3-5 64 Nymex 2021 9 61 2020 62 2020 V&2021 5.5 2021 2016-2022 2021.03-2021.05 3 3-5 2021.06-2021.12 Nymex 8 2021 55.6%36.4%36.7%16.4%12.1%9.4%22.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 BEV PHEV HEV 0.050.551.051.552.052.553.051 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221002003004005006001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind iFinD 150018002100240027003000-50-40-30-20-1001020304050(/39 65 2022 2016-2022 2022 2022.01-03 2022.04-12 5.6 2022 Wesizwe Bakubung Fed 25 bp 25 bp 6 50 bpFed 25 bp 2022 9 NYMEX Fed 75 bp 75 bp 670 Fed 75 bp 7”9 Fed 50 bp 2023 2024 70 1600180020002200240026002800300032002022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11/Market screener Wind Metal Focus 40 68 2022 69 2018-2022 66 2019-2022 67 2022 5.6 2022 2016-2022 2022.04-2022.12 Nymex 12345673 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-1010305070901101301501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020901401902402904 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 70 2022 Nymex Wind iFinD 72.1 72.956.075.0 64.584.4 84.774.776.273.788.2 96.588.694.787.9251274243 241 240494439 41 37442 22-4.5-27.2-19.2-1.9-15.1-360-300-240-180-120-600601201802403002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1500180021002400270030003300-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50(/416.42 73 2010 75 71 70%72 2010 6.1 R=0.9731R=0.9563R=0.5758-300-200-1000100200300-300-200-100 0 100 200 300-1981-2000 2001-2010 2011-2022R=0.0667R=0.1027R=0.5884-100-50050100-300-200-100 0 100 200 300-1981-2000 2001-2010 2011-20220%20%40%60%80%100%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2022 77%2010 2011 R=0.0402R=0.018R=0.1791-1000100-300-200-100 0 100 200 300-1981-2000 2001-2010 2011-2022 74 y=0.9845x-47.353R=0.9886y=0.0706x+25.961R=0.6408y=-0.055x+21.392R=0.29440501001502002503003500 100 200 300 400(t)(t)&Wind iFinD 43 76 CAPEX 77 CAPEX 6.2 R=0.0012R=0.0012-600-400-20002004006000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Capex 2y 3y 78-300-250-200-150-100-5005010015020025001000020000300004000050000600001990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 capex-50-40-30-20-10010203040500500100015002000250030002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2027 Wind iFinD Bloomberg 44 80 82 6.3 1998 1998-2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%81 79 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0%20%40%60%80%100%1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Wind iFinD 45 83 6.4 2018-2022 84.7%1995 28.9%42%MLCC 2022 5.5%2004 2004-2010 ETF 2007 2011-2015 2014 iFinD 46 89 87 88 84 85 6.5 86-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%&2000-2010 2011-2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%&2000-2010 2011-2022-100%-50%0%50%100%-40%-20%0%20%40%&2000-2010 2011-2022-50%-25%0%25%50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%&2000-2010 2011-2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%&2000-2010 2011-2022-50%0%50%100%150%200%-20%0%20%40%60%&2000-2010 2011-2022 iFinD 47 93 94 90 91 92-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%+&+2000-2010 2011-2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%+&+2000-2010 2011-2022-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-40%-20%0%20%40%+&+2000-2010 2011-2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%+&+2000-2010 2011-20
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