资源描述
2023 S0790520030001 S0790121050058 2022 11 16 1.1 2 2.3.4.4.1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 1.1 FAO 1 2 1 Wind 2 05101520253035406007008009001000110012001300 22/406080100120140160180FAO FAO 1.2 Wind-1 2 3 1 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/11.9 15.6 18.7 15.2 13.2 21.4 33.4/10.9 14.7 16.3 15.5 14.1 15.4 22.4/9.3 11.6 13.2 12.5 11.2 12.4 19.3 2.5 3.6 5.6 5.0 3.6 4.8 10.9 6.4 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1/0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0/1.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 1.3 Wind 3 Wind 4 81318232833384310305070901101301502006-092007-092008-092009-092010-092011-092012-092013-092014-092015-092016-092017-092018-092019-092020-092021-092022-09/81318232833384320304050607080902013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-07/1.4 Wind 5 Wind 6-1500-1000-5000500100015002000250030003500/05001000150020002500/仔 猪溢 价仔 猪折价1.5 Wind 2.6 2.7-2.8 11 4.03/2.7 10.9/2.5/7 2020 2.6 Wind 8 2022 11 4.0/4.03 2.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.3/2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.32.42.42.52.52.62.62.72.72.82.820042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 1.6 Wind 2008 2.9/9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020/6.0 13.7 15.3 16.9 18.7 21.6 24.8 31.3 40.0 56.0 68.0 74.4 78.0 81.4 83.1 84.9 86.4 89.8 0.020.040.060.080.0100.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020/10 2008 Wind 1.7 Wind 12 Wind 11 100015002000250030003500/10060011001600210026001015202530354045/1.8 2017 2022 9 87.9 2017 2022H1-0 2022 2022-13 2017 87.9%14 Wind-12.0%-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%50.060.070.080.090.0100.0110.02017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01()(%)-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%8.013.018.023.028.033.038.02020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-07%/1.9 10 22 22 15 4 1.10 Wind Y M 4 48 16 4 48 Wind 17 8.010.012.014.016.018.020.0-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%2006-2018/上行阶段高位阶段下行阶段5.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.05.07.09.011.013.015.017.019.021.023.02006.04-2010.03/2010.04-2014.03/2014.04-2018.03/2018.04-2022.03/2022.04-?/1.112022 Q4 Wind 3-5 11-1 18 12-1 19 12-1 9-10 20%Wind 12.013.014.015.016.017.018.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.026.028.030.0M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122022/2007-2021/2007-2018/1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,400M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122009-2021 2009-2018 1.12 MSY LYF PSY MSY MSY MSY 20 1.13 Wind 2021 6 2021 9-10 1-4 2021 2022 MSY 16 2022 21 2022 MSY 16 12.013.014.015.016.017.018.010 MSY/MSY-TTM/10 MSY/MSY-TTM/1.14-1 2 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 2.1 2021 125.14 2021 65.32 40.42 19.40 52.20%32.30%15.50%84.5%22 84.5%2.2 2022 85.6%75.0%69.0%1 2 3 23 24 5132 5444 5619 5821 5645 5425 5452 5404 4255 4113 5296 1663 1758 1731 1676 1752 2037 1874 1994 2239 2361 2379 1009 1019 1023 1043 1057 1077 1106 1119 1155 1165 1212 3000400050006000700080009000100002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Wind 357911131517051015202530354045/2.3 25 2.4 2020 817 817 27 2018-2021 45.6 42.8 44.0 42.0 39.4 44.2 49.2 65.3 36.5 37.4 39.9 36.9 39.6 49.0 44.3 40.4 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.02014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 26 2016-2021 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%10001200140016001800200022002400260028002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2.5 2022 9 2019 67.7%36.7%63.1%B 20-50/29 28 9000100001200014000190002012354885910653471008100893128343116335838384955547805000100001500020000250003000035000400002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-09 15.9 40.9 63.9 87.2 101.5 143.7 149.0%157.7%56.4%36.4%16.3%41.6%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%180.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy%2.6 60 36 9 5000-6000 30 31 2.6 2022 9 130.9 38.2 2022 5 8 2023 33 9 38.2 32 2022 9 130.9 130.9 60708090100110120130140Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-2275.3 76.0 63.8 58.3 56.7 62.5 47.6 40.0 38.2 105.1 100.8 111.8 111.8 113.1 114.0 125.6 127.5 130.9 20406080100120140 2.6 2022 60-70%2022 9 68.4 130 52.6%2023 2021 2022 35 34 2022 68.4 124.3 68.4 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.013%58%80%73%2%16%14%40%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2.6 12 5 2022 9 11 9 262 351 37 USDA 36 OIE2.6 10 HAPI 11 5 HPAI 3.49 41 MS TN AL Aviagen 40 USDA 2.6 2020 10 2021Q2 2021Q3 2022 2022 8-9 10 2023 39 2022 10 EFSA 38 2020 EFSA 2.6 2013-2014 H7N9 2014-2016 2015-2016 2018-2019 42 2015 Wind 0.010.020.030.040.050.00.030.060.090.0120.0150.0180.0/0.010.020.030.040.050.060.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.0/Wind 43 2018 2.7 2022 5-7 8 8 25 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 3.1 2019 1 2 3 2020 63.9%44 3.2 2020 620 2020 620.95 2020 620.95 2018 35.3%142.29 35.1%45 2020 621 46 2020 142 472 484 459 504 621-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%3003504004505005506006502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy%131 134 133 118 162 122 121 122 105 142-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%70901101301501702016 2017 2018 2019 2020%24.23,15%19.06,12%15.33,9%103.74,64%/3.3 2020 2019 2019 2020 2022 1 4 20222025 2022 2025 47 2020 64%48 2019-2020 506070809010011050080011001400170020002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 3.4 GMP 2020 GMP 2022 2020 2020 2022 6 GMP 2022 11 9 1222 GMP 535 687 2021 1579 1096 GMP 23%GMP GMP 49 GMP 50 050100150200250300 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CR10 CR10 CR10 CR103.5 2021 43%51 2020 70%52 2020 18%01020304050607080010000200003000040000500006000070000800002017 2018 2019 2020 0102030405060700204060801001201401601802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.6 2018 2019 2020 2018 53 2019 54 2013-2018 Wind 33 44 43 42 56 66 45 50 43 53 34 57-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy%yoy%47.5%21.7%0.3%-43.6%85.7%11.8%-44.2%-32.6%-8.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%0.05.010.015.020.025.0 yoy%yoy%3.7 2022 Q2/+2%/-3%/18%53%/32%/46%20%73%55 2022 Q3 56 2022 Q3 01020304050607080901002020 2021 2022 57 2022 Q3 0102030405060702020 2021 20220501001502002502020 2021 20223.8 mBio mBio MGF360-9L MGF360-9L STAT1 STAT2 JAK/STAT I 58 ASFV VLP 2 ASFV 4 3.8 2021 4 15 3 3.8 2021 6.71 27.4%6.5 2 20/10/260.0 30%78.0 39.0 4 40/2 78.0 25 30 35 40 45 50 10%16.3 19.5 22.8 26.0 29.3 32.5 20%32.5 39.0 45.5 52.0 58.5 65.0 30%48.8 58.5 68.3 78.0 87.8 97.5 40%65.0 78.0 91.0 104.0 117.0 130.0 50%81.3 97.5 113.8 130.0 146.3 162.5 60%97.5 117.0 136.5 156.0 175.5 195.0 70%113.8 136.5 159.3 182.0 204.8 227.5 80%130.0 156.0 182.0 208.0 234.0 260.0 90%146.3 175.5 204.8 234.0 263.3 292.5 100%162.5 195.0 227.5 260.0 292.5 325.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 10%3.3 6.5 9.8 13.0 16.3 19.5 20%6.5 13.0 19.5 26.0 32.5 39.0 30%9.8 19.5 29.3 39.0 48.8 58.5 40%13.0 26.0 39.0 52.0 65.0 78.0 50%16.3 32.5 48.8 65.0 81.3 97.5 60%19.5 39.0 58.5 78.0 97.5 117.0 70%22.8 45.5 68.3 91.0 113.8 136.5 80%26.0 52.0 78.0 104.0 130.0 156.0 90%29.3 58.5 87.8 117.0 146.3 175.5 100%32.5 65.0 97.5 130.0 162.5 195.0 5 20/2 39.03.9 Mordor Intelligence Mordor Intelligence 2021 90 19.2 32.5%2020 1.9 1.4%2021 67%74%2022 1-9 2021 18%59 2021 32.5%60 50%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0306090120150180%2021 0102030405060%3.9 8.3-20.7*1+*2/*3”*1+*3/*3”2021 1 2 50%20%8.3-20.7/3-5 30%2.5 17.0 6 8.3-20.7/7 3-5 30%*1 40 40*2 100*3 150 19.2 18.4 13.3 5.3*3 60*3 90 7.2 19.2 7.4 3.0 10%20%30%40%50%90%19.5 80%18.2 70%17.060%15.7 50%14.5 3.10 2022Q2 2022Q3 1 1-3 2 3 2025 GMP 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 4.1 USDA 2022 USDA10 2022 5620-21%1480 4%6.31 18%11 8 87%76%94%86%Successful Farming 61 2022 21%Successful Farming 63 2022 11 8 94%62 2022 11 8 87%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050607080 27 yoy4.2 Farmdoc Daily 64 2022 10 40 DAP MAP 2022 600 2 460 11 1 350 87%2021 610 2021 USAID 65 2022 4.3 2023 2022 2023 66 2020 67 2020 68 Wind 2150220022502300235024003.43.453.53.553.63.653.72017 2018 2019 2020 2021/230023502400245025002550260026504.354.44.454.54.554.64.652017 2018 2019 2020 2021/05001000150020002500300066.16.26.36.46.56.62017 2018 2019 2020 2021/4.4 2021 Q4 2600/2022 2022 2023 69 2022 USDA 71 02468100501001502002503003504004502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 USDA 70 0%20%40%60%80%100%100010501100115012001250 150017001900210023002500270029003100:/4.5 2020-2024 72 1 2021 11 12 2020-2024 8 2020 2000 12 2000 100 1000 2021 2 000 100 2 000 2022 12 6 2000 100 100 2000 2023-2024 4000 200 5000 4.6 86%4%2020 2021 95%50%12%95%10%73 2021 80%74 2021 2835 720 65%70%75%80%85%90%95%020004000600080001000012000 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%050010001500200025003000 4.7 95%2004-2020 9 2004-2021 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 3 3 2 4 3 3 5 0 4 5 35 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 4 1 5 1 32 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 2 2 2 6 1 2 2 3 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 1 8 2 2 7 3 4 8 5 8 7 6 13 1 7 894.8 HT 4 39 58 37 88 IR 2 38 58 35 94 QM 1 10 ST 6 1 HI 2 4 AT HT HT/HI/IR HT IR 10 4.9 11 2022 8/2022 0231 Bt11 MIR162 GA21 cry1Ab pat vip3Aa20 2021 004 125 cry1Ab cry2Aj g10evo-epsps 2021 003 125 cry1Ab cry2Aj g10evo-epsps(2019)292 125 cry1Ab cry2Aj g10evo-epsps 2021 366 DBN3601T cry1Ab epsps vip3Aa19 pat 2020 218 DBN9936 cry1Ab epsps(2019)291 DBN9936 cry1Ab epsps 4.10 14 5 3 12/9 2021 DBN3601T cry1Ab epsps vip3Aa19 pat DBN9501 vip3Aa19 pat2020 DBN9858 epsps pat DBN9858 cry1Ab epsps DBN9859 epsps pat DBN9859 cry1Ab epsps DBN9860 epsps pat DBN9860 cry1Ab epsps DBN9936 cry1Ab epsps 3 2022 nCX-1 CdP450 cp4epsps2021 8 cry1Ab cry2Ab 125 cry1Ab cry2Aj g10evo-epsps 2019 2021 ND207 mcry1Ab mcry2Ab 2014 BVLA430101 2009 3 2022 GA21 mepsps Bt11 MIR162 GA21 cry1Ab pat vip3Aa20 Bt11 GA21 cry1Ab pat mepsps 2021 6106 g2-epsps gat 1 DBN9004 epsps pat 2020 6106 g2-epsps gat 2019 SHZD3201 g10evo-epsps 4.10 1996-2019 1996-2019 25.44%25.99%16.28%22.22%32%48%2019 320 1.7%76 2019 75 1996-2019 10%25%26%16%22%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%77 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200040006000800010000%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050607080%4.11 2020 90%2019 19 5/12 78 90%13 2019 99%95%94%94%90%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%4.12 30 2009-2014 95%14 1995 BT176 1995 T14 1996 BT11 1998 BT11 1998 676 678 680 2004 BT176 MON863 GA21 T25 BT11 TC1507 2006 LY038 2006 LY038+MON810 1988 Hinchee npt 1990 W62 W198 1994 GTS 40-3-2 1996 GTS 40-3-21997(70%)1998 AgrEvo 15 4.13 ISAAA 79 16 2022 2022 7 18 HB4 2022 6 30 AAT709A 2022 6 22 HB4 2022 5 31 MON87427 2022 5 6 HB4 2022 3 24 NS-B527-4 2022 3 24 LBFLFK 2022 3 9 GMB151 2022 2 1 HB4 ISAAA 70504870331621010203040506070802015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20214.14 USDA 1996 4 70%1996 2003 20%80 81 1996 27%2003 20%Wind 0500100015002000250030000100020003000400050006000:4.15/8 17 T E T+2Y E T+5Y E T+8Y E/55 56 58 60 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 10%20%50%80%/5.5 5.6 5.8 6 8.3 8.4 8.7 9 11.0 11.2 11.6 12 35.2 36.4 38.28 40.2 52.8 54.6 57.42 60.3 70.4 72.8 76.56 80.4 T E T+2Y E T+5Y E T+8Y E/35.3 35.8 36.5 38 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 10%20%50%80%/3.53 3.58 3.65 3.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 5.3 5.4 5.8 6.1 7.9 8.1 8.8 9.1 10.6 10.7 11.7 12.24.16 1-2 4 10 5 10 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 5 Wind 2022 11 15 16 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E002714.SZ 48.69 1.30 3.23 7.52 5.77 37.45 15.07 6.47 8.44300498.SZ 18.13-2.05 1.42 3.06 1.84-8.84 12.77 5.92 9.85603566.SH 30.00 0.69 0.55 0.85 1.09 43.48 54.55 35.29 27.52688526.SH 25.93 1.22 1.08 1.52 1.74 21.25 24.01 17.06 14.90603609.SH 13.61 0.13 0.72 1.30 1.37 104.69 18.90 10.47 9.93002299.SZ 25.94 0.36 0.39 0.84 1.05 72.06 66.51 30.88 24.70002458.SZ 14.98 0.03 0.15 0.45 0.63 499.33 99.87 33.29 23.78002385.SZ 9.49-0.11 0.08 0.55 0.57-86.27 118.63 17.25 16.65002041.SZ 48.69 1.30 3.23 7.52 5.77 37.45 15.07 6.47 8.441 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 6 1788 1 10 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