20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf

返回 相关 举报
20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf_第1页
第1页 / 共33页
20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf_第2页
第2页 / 共33页
20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf_第3页
第3页 / 共33页
20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf_第4页
第4页 / 共33页
20231120_东方证券_电力行业2024年度投资策略:期待容量电价引领火电价值重估绿电环境价值有望逐步兑现_33页.pdf_第5页
第5页 / 共33页
亲,该文档总共33页,到这儿已超出免费预览范围,如果喜欢就下载吧!
资源描述
|2023 2024 2024 9.74 2023 6.2%9.85 2023 7.4%9.66 2023 5.3%2012 71.4%2023 50%2023 19 70%2024 ROE 8 3 2021 8 CCER 6 CCER CCER(600011)(600795)(600027)(600021)(600023)“”“”CCER(600905)(600483)(600163)/2023 11 20 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860521050001 100/1106-1110 2023-11-17 1030-1103 2023-11-07 4 1023-1027 2023-11-02 1016-1020 2023-10-24 2023 2023-06-15 2024 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 2 2024 6%.7 3.9 3.1.9 3.2.11 3.3.13 3.4.15 3.5.17 3.6.17 18 4.19 4.1.19 19 20 21 21 23 24 4.2 CCER.26 CCER 2017 26 30 30.31.31 1ZCXyRnQoNoPoQmPnQqPnMbRaO9PpNnNpNnOjMmNnMkPnPmN8OnMsPxNrMpRMYsQpN 3 1 11 7%.5 2 11 7%.5 3 11 7%.6 4 11 7%.6 5 11 7%.7 6 11 7%.7 7.7 8.7 9 2023 9 30.9 10 2012-2023 GW.10 11 2023 1-9.10 12.10 13 2023 19.10 14 2019-2023 3-6.11 15 2019-2023 3-6.11 16.12 17.12 18/.13 19 Q5500/.13 20.14 21 2021.14 22.14 23/.14 24 21-23/.17 25 2021-2023.22 26/.22 27/.22 28 20172020.23 29 20212022.24 30.24 31.24 32 2017.25 33/.25 34.31 4 1 2017-2022.8 2 2023.8 3 2024.9 4 2024.9 5 2022.15 6.15 7 2024.16 8 2024-2025.18 9.20 10.21 11 CCER CDM.26 12 CCER.27 13 CCER.28 14.29 5 1 1.1 2023 11 7 300-6.51%-2.34%300 31 12-2.89%1 11 7%wind 1.2 2023 11 7-6.87%+7.05%-21.67%-19.48%(30)(20)(10)010203040 300 2 11 7%wind(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)05101520 6 22 23 3 11 7+57.17%+36.37%+25.50%+21.62%+16.30%-37.76%-25.69%-18.62%-17.16%-14.44%7 Q3 11 7+20.95%+20.58%+13.59%-24.31%-8.09%-6.47%1Q23 11 7+13.07%34.47%-23.23%-16.54%4Q22 11 7+9.54%+7.25%-33.14%-28.46%-25.45%3 11 7%4 11 7%wind wind(60)(40)(20)020406080(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152025 7 5 11 7%6 11 7%wind wind 2 2024 6%2022 8.63 3.9%1.4%2023 6.86 5.8%5.6%7 8 2023 10-12 2017-2022 1 2023 34.07%2 2023 24.95%2023 5.2%6.3%7.4%(40)(30)(20)(10)01020(40)(35)(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)051015 0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/7 8 1 2017-2022 A 1-9 B 10-12 C C/A C/B 2017 63,077 46,888 16,189 25.67%34.53%2018 68,449 51,061 17,388 25.40%34.05%2019 72,255 53,442 18,813 26.04%35.20%2020 75,093 54,117 20,976 27.93%38.76%2021 83,099 61,651 21,449 25.81%34.79%2022 86,322 64,876 21,446 24.84%33.06%2017-2022 25.95%35.07%2017-2020 26.26%35.64%2017-2019 25.70%34.59%wind 2 2023 2023 Q1-Q3 68637 68637 68637 2023 Q4 Q1-Q3 33.07%34.07%35.07%2023 Q4 23.95%24.95%25.95%2023 Q4 1 22695 23381 24068 2023 Q4 2 21614 22817 24052 22155 23099 24060 2023 90791 91736 92697 2023 5.2%6.3%7.4%wind 2024 23 9 2020 2020 2022 10%23 9 13.7%24 3 13.6%2024 23 10 PMI 49.5%50.2%PMI 50.9%49.5%52.7%50.5%23 9 5.6%24 3 4.9%1%2024 9 22 23 1 2023 19 10.3%24 23 9 10.3%1%2024 2022/2023 23 23 19 1.2%23/24 22 23 9 1.2%24 2024 9.74 2023 6.2%9.85 2023 7.4%9.66 2023 5.3%3 2024 1404 64676 17885 14531 98496 1380 64071 17569 14389 97409 1356 63768 17411 14105 96640 4 2024 15.6%6.9%13.3%2.2%7.4%13.6%5.9%11.3%1.2%6.2%11.6%5.4%10.3%-0.8%5.3%3 3.1 2023 9 2791GW 1373GW 49.2%9 2023 9 30 10 2023 1-9 227GW 35GW 128GW 78%40GW 19%10 2012-2023 GW 11 2023 1-9 2023*2023 9 30 2012 71.4%2023 50%2022 8.34 3.7%1.5%2023 19 6.59 7.5%4.62 6.1%2023 19 70%12 13 2023 19 49.2%15.0%2.0%14.3%18.7%0.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050010001500200025003000 19.1%2.8%0.6%16.5%61.0%11 3-6 22 14 2019-2023 3-6 15 2019-2023 3-6 3.2 2022 3 3 2022 22 8000/3/-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000 70%13%5%9%3%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%3 4 5 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 202355.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%3 4 5 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12 22-23 2022 44.86 11.4%2023 2023 19 34.61 22 4.18%2.02%24 16 2022 2.93 9.4%2023 19 3.48 73.0%24 17-5%0%5%10%15%20%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022 12 2022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023 12 2023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09%13 18/wind 19 Q5500/wind 3.3-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022 12 2022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023 12 2023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09%050100150200250300350400450500 ARA 400600800100012001400160018001 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 2023 6 2256.9 5 31 3042 2021 6 2023/2024 4 1.5 2 24 20 21 2021 wind wind 22 23/wind wind 050010001500200025001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 202305001000150020002500300035002021 2022 2023020004000600080001000012000140001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 202301002003004005006007001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 15 2022 59%23 5500 2023 10 30 971/24+200/+100/-100/-200/24-63%/-31%/31%/63%5 2022 1 2 3 4 5/+200+100 0-100-200/1171 1071 971 871 771 59%59%59%59%59%/1287 1235 1183 1132 1080/369.48 354.62 339.77 324.92 310.06/-29.71-14.85 0.00 14.85 29.71-63.73-31.87 0.00 31.87 63.73-50.99-25.49 0.00 25.49 50.99-40.79-20.39 0.00 20.39 40.79 24 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97-63%-31%0%31%63%3.4 2023 11 10 2024(2023 870)2024 23 6 2023 2022 903 2024(2023 870)20 303 5500 570 770 303 5500 570 770 16 3“+”80%75%80%75%(2022)105%(2023)80%100%“”100%,80%80%90%90%770/22 59%23 5500 2023 10 30 971/24-10/+10/+20/+30pct-12%/12%/24%/36%7 2024 1 2 3 4 5-10%0 10%20%30%49%59%69%79%89%-/1203 1183 1164 1144 1125/345.40 339.77 334.13 328.50 322.86/-5.63 0.00 5.63 11.27 16.90-12.09 0.00 12.09 24.18 36.26-9.67 0.00 9.67 19.34 29.01-7.74 0.00 7.74 15.47 23.21 24 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 17-12%0%12%24%36%3.5 2021 10 12+10%15%20%20%4Q21 2022 20%23-22.69/+14.00/5%9 4 23 22 2024 24 23 24 21-23/*3.6 2024 1 1-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0100200300400500600700*2021 2022 23 23 18 330 2024 2025 30%50%2026 50%8 2024-2025 19 2022 1.2 2000 ROE 4 4.1 8 3 20 ESG 20/2002 2015 3.6%25.2%15.4%2003 2020 42.6%50%2009 8 2020 20%1%2009 7.4%2010 8.7%2011 9.6%2014 13%9 35%2020 15.4%2015 10%2020/7.55%2012/50%2020 17 24%2024 20%2020 21 25 15%2020“”“”“”“”“”“”10/+2021 8 28 2021 8 9 7 22;2022 9 2021 37787.4 6.3 2022 52543.4 227.8 2023 1-9 42048.3 371.8 2022 384.6 1000 38.5 227.8 25 2021-2023*2023 1-9 2023 3-6 8.51 8.82/9/2022 2-5 2 5/26/27/05010015020025030035040001000020000300004000050000600002021 2022 2023*23 2017 2017 2.27 20182020 6625 6377 5428 28 20172020 2020 4 2021 1 1 21 2021 55.2 22 384.6 8.28.48.68.899.22023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 4564584604624644664684702022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2022 5 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002017 2018 2019 2020 24 29 20212022 20 2019 5 2020-2023 1.5pct 30 31 0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0002021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2020 2021 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020 2021 2022 2023 25 23 2022 5954 595.4 2017 7 2022 12 2.2%2022 2060 5 53%2021 135%2.7%IREC 32 2017 2017-200/700/4050/21-23 33/0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%05001000150020002500300035002020 2021 2022 36384042444648505201002003004005006007008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26 2023 2023 8 5 4.2 CCER 2023 10 19 CCER 2017 CCER 6 10 24 CCER CCER CCER 2017 CCER Chinese Certified Emission Reduction CCER CCER CDM 2005 2012 2013 2017 2017 2023 2013 CDM CCER CCER CDM CCER CDM 11 CCER CDM CDM CCER 1997 12 CCER CCER 27 CDM CDM CDM CDM VVM AS NON-COMPLIANCE 12 CCER 2017 6 CDM 7598 49.53%3763 CERs 1554 2017 3 2871 33.54%254 CDM 2013 CER CER CDM CCER CCER 2012 CCER 2014 2015 CCER CCER 1 1 5%10%CCER CCER 12 CCER 2017 3 CCER 5%2013 1 1 HFC PFC N2O SF6 50%5%2013 1 1 CO2 50%10%2013 1 1 CCER 2%5%28 CO2 CH4 50%CDM 70%10%10%2015 1 1 10%2010 12 31 8%2005 2 16 CO2 CH4 5%CCER 2017 3 CCER CCER CCER 2023 10 19 CCER 2017 CCER 6 10 24 CCER CCER 13 CCER CCER 2020 12 5%2021 9 2021 11 2022 9 29 2023 3 CCER 2021 2022 2023 7 CCER 5%2023 7 8 51 8 14(1)(2)(3)2012 11 8(4)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(1(2)(3)(4)2020 9 22(5)(6“”30 5 2017 3 14 2017 3 14 2024 12 31 2025 1 1 10 24 CCER CCER CCER CCER 2023 8 3 CCER CCER CCER CCER CCER CCER CCER 31 34-CCER CCER(600011)(600795)(600027)(600021)(600023)“”“”CCER(600905)(600483)(600163)1 2 3 4 32 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
展开阅读全文
相关资源
相关搜索
资源标签

copyright@ 2017-2022 报告吧 版权所有
经营许可证编号:宁ICP备17002310号 | 增值电信业务经营许可证编号:宁B2-20200018  | 宁公网安备64010602000642