20230302_国金证券_生产控制类工业软件行业证券研究报告：本土玩家各有侧重共同打造工业场景自主可控_37页.pdf

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 DCS 1722 CAGR 31.0%ERP+360 ERP 360 ERP 1721 CAGR 28.5%PLM 1721 CAGR 49.4%ERP 1719 2020+ERP&ERPII+1721 CAGR 10.1%1721 CAGR 25.3%60%1722 CAGR 33.8%1721 80%1721 CAGR 41.2%2020 32.3%18-21 CAGR 42.8%行业竞争加剧的风险；新品研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 内容目录 1.6 1.6 2.ERP+360.9 3.PLM.13 4.16 5.“”.19 6.22 7.24 8.27 9.2020 32.3%.29 2.33 3.34 ZXCXxOtOmPoPrPsRnQrOpOaQaO6MoMmMpNsRfQmMmPlOqQnO8OmNmRuOmNoOvPrMmO行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 3 图表目录 1 DCS%.6 2.7 3 CAGR 31.0%.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.8 8.8 9.9 10 ERP CAGR 25%.10 11 ERP.10 12.11 13.11 14.11 15 ERP.11 16.12 17.12 18 ERP+=.12 19.13 20 CAGR 37.9%.14 21.14 22.15 23.15 24.15 25.16 26.16 27.16 28.16 29 CAGR 10.5%.17 30.17 31.18 32 ERP.18 33.18 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 4 34.18 35 19 20.19 36.19 37.19 38 18.19 39 CAGR 9.4%.20 40“”.20 41.21 42.21 43.21 44 66%.21 45 MES.22 46.22 47%.22 48.23 49.23 50.23 51.24 52 10%.24 53.24 54.24 55 1722 CAGR 33.8%.25 56.25 57 22.26 58.26 59.26 60 70%.26 61.27 62.27 63%.27 64.28 65.28 66.28 67.29 68.29 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 5 69.29 70.29 71.30 72.30 73.30 74.31 75.31 76.31 77 10%.31 78.32 79.32 80 9.33 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 6 1.DCS 2021 34%DCS 1999 DCS 19992006 DCS 20072015 DCS DCS 2016 SIS 1 DCS%Wind(DCS)5S 店+S2B 创新商业模式的落地 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 7 2 2022 66.2 46.5%1722 CAGR 31.0%2021 72.1%2017-2021 2021 11.4%S2B 7.9%2.9%4.5%3 CAGR 31.0%4 Wind Wind 2021 39.3%43.8%42.5%23.6%S2B 8.9%2022 10.5%6.5%2017-2021 2022 10.5%17.2 21.3 25.4 31.6 45.2 66.2 24.4%18.9%24.5%43.1%46.5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%79.4%81.4%80.1%73.8%72.1%8.6%7.9%8.5%11.3%11.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 S2B 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 8 5 6 Wind Wind 2022 8.0 36.8%1722 CAGR 37.5%2022 12.0%2021 89.4 15.8%11.5 11.7%7 8 Wind Wind 2020 YoY YoY YoY 2021 YoY YoY 2020 2020 10.5%6.5%10.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 39.3%36.1%42.5%23.6%43.8%8.9%41.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 S2B 1.6 2.9 3.7 4.2 5.8 8.0 9.5%13.4%14.4%13.4%12.9%12.0%74.8%28.1%15.9%37.6%36.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01234567892017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)YOY%62.2 69.3 73.2 73.6 77.2 89.4 2.1 6.6 9.8 10.6 10.3 11.5-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050607080901002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 9 9 Wind Y oY 2022 110 2021 2022 110 2022 Wind 2.ERP+360 ERP-ERP ERP 2005 ERP ERP MES 1.0 ERP 20052009 2009 ERP 2.0 2009-2013 2009 ERP 3.0 2013 2013 ERP 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 10 10 ERP CAGR 25%Wind ERP ERP 15%ERP+11 ERP 2022 16.7 21.9%2021 19.4 39.7%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 11 1721 CAGR 28.5%85%2021 88.4%12 13 Wind Wind 2021 35.3%ERP 35.1%42.1%2022Q3 10.9%2019-2021 8.3%9.6%10.9%7.3%2017 13.0%2022Q3 6.3%2017-2021 3.5%4.0%5.4%5.3%5.3%14 15 ERP Wind Wind 2022 1.5 15.3%2021 2.3 1721 CAGR 22.2%2021 11.6%2021 31.4 5.4%3.6 4.0%7.19.110.813.919.416.728.3%18.3%28.8%39.7%21.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YoY%94.5%91.5%89.7%88.7%88.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 6.3%7.3%10.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 35.2%34.8%28.8%34.1%35.1%25.9%30.0%31.6%41.0%42.1%32.4%32.3%28.4%34.9%35.3%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%41%43%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ERP 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 12 16 17 Wind Wind ERP 360 ERP ERP ERP ERP ERP 18 ERP+=1.01.10.71.82.31.514.2%12.5%6.1%12.7%11.6%12.4%-41.6%165.4%27.5%15.3%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0112232017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%26.0 26.7 28.9 29.8 31.4 2.7%8.2%3.2%5.4%-10.0%-46.5%112.9%-4.0%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 13 ERP 19 日期 交易标的 投资效果 2022-08-13 51%PCB ERP 2022-06-19 49%49%ERP 2020-12-02 51%2019-12-13 19%2019-9-17 49%2018-06-15 51%SAP SAP SAP Wind 3.PLM 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 14 20 CAGR 37.9%Wind 21 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 15 22 产品名称 产品界面 产品介绍 aPaaS/API/SaaS/-1 2 3 4 5 API 6 7 2022 Wind 2022 8.1 1.4%2021 11.4 19.9%1721 CAGR 49.4%19 2018 50%2021 87.7%23 24 Wind Wind 2021 40.0%39.8%2017-2021 2021 39.9%2022 1.1 3.1%2021 1.6 32.7%1721 CAGR 43.0%19 21 13.9%2.34.17.79.511.48.178.1%87.7%24.3%19.9%1.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YoY%44.1%53.4%73.9%81.6%87.7%55.9%46.6%26.1%18.4%12.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 16 25 26 Wind Wind 2016 2017 100%27 28 Wind Wind 4.2011+/ERP 2018 1921 2021 2022 23 CAGR 10.5%2023 2 B AI 52.1%48.3%40.1%39.9%39.9%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.40.50.91.21.61.116.6%12.5%11.7%12.6%13.9%32.9%77.7%33.4%32.7%3.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%97.7105.4118.371.050.075.397.6112.1110.418.520.817.611.78.910.814.116.118.2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201402013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%13.3%10.6%9.1%7.3%6.4%8.1%9.1%8.2%8.4%103.0%105.4%112.6%126.6%141.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 17 29 CAGR 10.5%Wind“”“”“E R P”“I T O”30 2022 22.3 9.1%2021 28.1 12.7%1721 CAGR 4.9%1720 20 2021 20.1%19.9%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 18 31 32 ERP Wind Wind 2015 2020 2022 2022Q3 7.8%19 20 10.0%9.7%5.4%19 21 6.8%7.0%17 22 Q3 9.0%33 34 Wind Wind 19 20 2022 4.4 4.2 2021 2.0 199.91%19 20 2021 7.0%19 20 3.2%2.6%30 23.328.727.224.928.122.323.2%-5.0%-8.5%12.7%9.1%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YoY%ERP,41.1%-C2M,20.1%-GMC,19.9%IT-ITO,17.9%,0.9%7.0%6.2%6.8%5.4%7.0%5.4%16.5%7.2%7.2%7.2%7.4%9.0%0.0%7.9%10.0%9.7%7.9%7.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 35.7%33.7%37.4%36.7%33.9%34.8%36.9%39.6%40.1%39.2%37.6%35.8%30.6%33.8%25.7%30.0%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%41%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 19 35 19 20 36 Wind Wind 19 10,355 0.86 1319 CAGR 26.0%18 19 20 2021 9,611 2.9 1.9 211.5%37 38 18 Wind Wind 5.“”1982 2001 2015 ERP/ERPII 2015+“+”ERP 3.23.90.90.72.04.413.9%13.5%3.2%2.6%7.0%19.5%-77.7%-23.7%199.9%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%011223344552017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%37.0 35.6 29.7 31.2 29.1 29.9 26.3 28.0 29.2 6.4 6.3 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 2.1-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%05101520253035402013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%2,2892,8344,1035,4807,9879,57010,3558,9159,6111.41.82.22.33.13.90.90.61.90.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.502,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.9 1.41.82.22.33.13.90.90.61.90112233445011223342013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 20 39 CAGR 9.4%Wind ERP&ERPII“+”“”+40 2022 12.8行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 21 9.1%2021 17.9 19.5%1721 CAGR 10.1%2021 49.0%30.7%20.3%41 42 Wind Wind 2020 66%2021 66.3%61.3%27.5%2020 96.0%83.5%2020 63.0%66.4%2022 0.5 28.8%2021 1.1 7.6%1721 CAGR 16.4%2021 6.3%2017-2021 43 44 66%Wind Wind MES IDC 2021 MES 3.8%31.8 41.8 12.213.414.715.017.912.810.3%9.3%2.0%19.5%9.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YoY%46.2%49.3%50.2%50.6%49.0%31.5%31.8%30.7%29.1%30.7%22.3%18.9%19.2%20.3%20.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.60.81.01.21.10.55.0%5.9%7.0%8.1%6.3%29.7%30.5%17.4%-7.6%-28.8%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.42017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%82.8%83.5%83.5%66.4%66.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 22 45 MES 46 IDC Wind 6.1978 2001 CAGR 24.3%47%Wind,10.9%SAP,7.7%,7.2%,3.8%,3.6%,3.1%,2.9%,2.8%,58.0%29.2 29.7 28.0 31.8 33.3 37.2 37.7 38.5 41.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.6-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0510152025303540452013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 23 48 2022 76.5 3.4%2021 117.6 23.5%1721 CAGR 25.3%2017-2021 68.8%2021 26.5%49 50 Wind Wind 1721 2021 32.5%27.6%46.7%9.8%93.1%5G 2021 12.9 11%10%47.854.768.595.2117.676.514.6%25.2%39.0%23.5%3.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YOY%70.1%64.4%66.7%70.6%72.3%25.9%30.9%30.0%27.5%26.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 24 51 52 10%Wind Wind 2022 15.3 8.1%2021 18.2 39.8%15.5%1721 CAGR 43.8%2021 5,000 220 53 54 Wind Wind 7.60%2022 2019 2020 2021 50%1722 CAGR 33.8%2022 1.5%26.7%27.9%30.0%29.1%32.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5.25.57.29.512.910.9%10.1%10.6%10.0%11.0%9.4%9.6%9.8%10.0%10.2%10.4%10.6%10.8%11.0%11.2%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021%4.36.78.813.018.215.38.9%12.2%12.8%13.7%15.5%57.4%31.4%48.0%39.8%8.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%7793 949711813816122622421.2%0.9%2.8%21.9%17.5%16.1%40.8%-1.2%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 25 55 1722 CAGR 33.8%Wind I/O 56 产品 产品介绍 PCI I/O Wind 22 2022 9.0 1.5%1722 CAGR 33.8%2021 32.9%2021 31.8%15.3%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 26 57 22 58 Wind Wind 80%85%2019 70%2022 Q3 3.7%2017-2021 4.1%2020-2022Q3 14.4%15.1%10.9%2022Q3 6.6%59 60 70%Wind Wind 2022 4.9 11.6%1722 CAGR 30.0%2022 54.1%2021 200 14.7%146 9.6%2.12.53.85.79.19.016.6%53.3%51.8%60.0%-1.5%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0123456789102017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%41.9%42.0%40.2%36.8%31.8%52.9%49.0%43.9%38.5%32.9%0.0%2.0%6.4%12.4%15.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.3%4.1%3.7%4.7%4.6%3.7%6.2%12.2%7.7%7.2%6.6%6.3%10.0%11.4%10.9%14.4%15.1%10.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 81.9%81.9%81.2%81.5%80.7%80.3%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 27 61 62 Wind Wind 8.2007 20072011 20122016 2017 63%Wind 62.4%56.7%65.4%65.0%60.2%54.1%6.2%76.9%50.5%48.5%-11.6%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%01234562017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)YoY%20.5%-13.6%10.9%14.9%14.7%41.4%-25.9%24.3%15.0%9.6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 28 64 2022 3.2 36.8%2021 4.0 50.5%1721 CAGR 41.2%2017-2021 76.0%68.1%63.3%64.4%55.4%2021 32.5%65 66 Wind Wind 2021 72.6%71.8%85.7%2017-2021 29.0%25.7%22.2%22.0%21.2%22 26.9%2022Q3 1.01.11.82.64.03.212.6%59.2%46.4%50.5%36.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01122334452017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YoY%13.0%21.2%25.0%22.7%32.5%76.0%68.1%63.3%64.4%55.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 29 8.7%2022 Q3 19.8%20 21 15.2%14.9%67 68 Wind Wind 2022 0.5 43.9%2021 0.8 9.2%1721 CAGR 8.0%2021 20.4%2021 77.1 23.1%15.8 10.8%69 70 Wind Wind 98%iEAM 9.2020 32.3%2004 2020 32.3%2018-2021 CAGR 42.8%26.9%8.7%19.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3%72.6%69.6%71.3%68.9%61.3%71.8%69.6%70.8%68.9%62.6%85.7%78.2%78.8%74.8%73.9%76.2%32.2%58.5%35.4%10.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.20.20.40.70.80.515.0%14.2%22.2%28.0%20.4%5.5%149.4%86.8%9.2%43.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0.00.20.40.60.81.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)YoY%36.8 43.3 62.3 62.7 77.1 5.6 6.1 13.8 17.7 15.8-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY%YoY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 30 71 Wind 2021 72 73 2022 1.98 2.5%2021 2.03 50.1%1821 CAGR 40%18 2018-2021 73.2%2021 19.6%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 31 74 75 Wind Wind 1721 2021 60.1%72.0%21.3%44.7%74.1%2021 0.3 13.6%76 77 10%Wind Wind 2022 0.41 22.8%2021 0.53 31.3%26.0%1722 CAGR 18.6%2021 263 16 50 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.0 15.9%8.5%32.7%46.2%50.1%-2.5%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00.51.01.52.02.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY%74.6%70.0%75.5%72.6%12.7%16.9%17.2%19.6%12.5%12.8%6.5%7.3%78.3%21.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 70.0%66.1%64.0%61.3%60.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 805 1,437 1,594 2,760 11.6%15.5%11.8%13.6%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002018 2019 2020 2021%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 32 78 79 Wind Wind 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.40 0.53 0.41 35.0%24.8%17.4%29.8%26.0%20.6%-23.2%-6.8%150.4%31.3%-22.8%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0.00.10.20.30.40.50.62017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY(%68.456.8 50.8 54.0 68.6 77.1-17.0%-10.5%6.3%26.9%12.4%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01020304050607080902016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 33 2022 3 1 0-1 80 9 股票代码 公司名称 推荐理由 688777.SH DCS 2021 34%CAGR 31.0%CAGR 37%Wind 22 23 24 EPS 1.76 2.13 2.82 57X 46X 35X PE 300687.SZ ERP+MOM IT ERP Wind 22 23 24 EPS 0.68 0.92 1.23 50X 37X 28X PE 603859.SH Wind 22 23 24 EPS 1.12 1.48 1.93 36X 27X 21X PE 300170.SZ 2011+/Wind 22 23 24 EPS 0.53 0.33 0.49 23X 37X 25X PE 300378.SZ+ERP&ERPII+Wind 22 23 24 EPS 0.50 0.68 0.88 38X 28X 22X PE 600845.SH CAGR 24.3%Wind 22 23 24 EPS 1.09 1.36 1.72 47X 37X 30X PE 688188.SH 60%1721 CAGR 33.8%Wind 22 23 24 EPS 3.33 5.09 6.93 65X 43X 31X PE 688786.SH Wind 22 23 24 EPS 2.64 3.16 4.56 54X 45X 31X PE 688291.SH 2020 32.3%Wind 22 23 24 EPS 0.47 0.69 0.99 66X 44X 31X PE Wind Wind 3 2 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 34 行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 35 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%行业深度研究(深度)敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 36“”“”“”C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 1-1 T3-2402 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告