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*01*2023 2 28*22021 2022 1 2022 4 2022 4 2021 2021 2030 2021 2025 653 2610 2021 67%Model Y 30%40%2022 3 Model Y 10+CTC 1 2 3 20 2024 2025 299 know how/+1ZEVvMmRmPqRqOpMmRqPqRaQbPaQsQmMsQoNiNpPoMkPnPxPaQoPtNNZqQrOvPoMoP*C O N T E N T S 02 03 01 04 053*01.4*10%5-10%100 0.3-0.6 015 1 2*77%54%70%A B C D 01 3 6*CM GROUP 2021 145kg 173kg 2025/2030 250kg/350kg/2030 2021 01 2030 1 kg CM Group=/-2030 567891011121000 1200 1400 1600 1800 4 2018-2030E kg/7*2025 653 2610 2021 67%01 8 Wind 2*02.9*45%65%400600 45005500 0210 400600 45005500 5*02 6 11*2020 9 22 Model Y 30%40%2021 10 45 Model Y 2022 3 Model Y 10 02 7 12*2022 171 2 1600+2021 2-3 370 10%14%02 ASP 8 14*200kg-300kg 26%1+BCU PDU DCDC OBC DriveOne 2 CTC 0220 CTC 9()10 Model3 300.3kg62.80%58.7kg12.30%53kg11.10%29.5kg6.20%15.8kg3.30%20.7kg4.30%BMS 15*-CTP CTC/CTB CTC 370 10%7%CTC 02 CTC OFweek,11 16*1 2 3 2024 02 12 17*Model Y 2020 4 IDRA IDRA 2009 Model Y 10 3 Cybertruck 9000T 12000 02 18 13*1.2021 12 ET5 6000T 2021 11 2.2022 6 10+0219 14*02 20 15/30 2024*1 2025/2030 2540/3050 50%/60%+2/+ASP 3000/3500/5000 0221 2025 299 16 kg/kg ASP 50-6050-602500-3500 6000T 60 3000-3500 6000T+70-100 3500-6000 9000T 180-220 9000-13000-3*3 2023 2024+2022-2025 7%/12%/19%/31%2023-2025 4%/8%/15%+2024-2025 5%/18%2025 299 2022-2025 CAGR 177%0222 2025 299 2022-2025 CAGR 177%Marklines 4 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()2,148 2,356 2,416 2,477 2,540()333 655 817 1,018 1,270()20 47 95 194 394(%)6%7%12%19%31%ASP()3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000()6 14 29 58 118()33 79 191(%)4%8%15%ASP()3,500 3,500 3,500()11 28 67+()51 229(%)5%18%ASP()5,000 5,000()25 114()6 14 40 111 299*23 03.*03 24 5 17*know how 0325 18 know how*0326 C611 1990s 250.1-271.4MPa 117.8-130.4MPa 12.1-17.1 Castasil-37 1990s 250-300MPa 12-2020.2 135 MPa 24 Model Y 2021 230MPa 150MPa 6 2021 220MPa 110MPa 12&TechCast 2021.12 15%30%6 19*CPK 1.66(10m/s)know-how 4 6000T 0327 20 7 21 1/IMPRESS&D-Series 1300-12000 DM-H 4500-9000 HDC 180-8800 GIGA PRESS 5500-9000 OLS 420-4000 Fusion 340-9200*0328 22/T 2020 6000T*1 2 3 0329/23 8*30mbar 1 2 100-250mbar 50-100mbar 50mbar 0330+know-how*0331+know-how 24*0332/ECU DCT;H ABS/9*2021 CR5 2%-4%0333 25 2021 wind 26%wind*/0334 10 8800T-9000T*3 9000T*1-*04.35*04 2023 2 24 36 11 2025 299 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E601689.SH 66.91 0.92 1.46 2.05 2.70 72 46 33 25 600933.SH 24.83 0.35 0.71 0.87 1.14 71 35 28 22 603305.SH 40.51 0.66 0.94 1.42 2.08 61 43 29 19 002997.SZ 29.72 0.63 0.76 1.19 1.69 47 39 25 18 603358.SH 20.93 0.82 0.84 1.15 1.82 26 25 18 11*0437 NVH Tier 0.5 NVH+8 RIVIAN LUCID Tier 0.5 3 2022-2024 16.11/22.64/29.71 2022-2024 PE 46/33/25/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 11,463 16,237 21,798 27,356%76.0 41.6 34.3 25.5 1,017 1,611 2,264 2,971%61.9 58.4 40.5 31.2 0.92 1.46 2.05 2.70 PE 72 46 33 25 PB 7.0 6.2 5.3 4.5 2023 2 24 12*0440/EPS/ECU/2022 6.20 6.60 100.08%112.99%22M11 640 0.12 77-80 2022-2024 6.31/7.70/10.04 2022-2024 PE 35/28/22 2023 2 24/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3,206 4,701 5,208 6,874%23.7 46.7 10.8 32.0 310 631 770 1,004%-27.2 103.6 22.1 30.3 0.35 0.71 0.87 1.14 PE 71 35 28 22 PB 4.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 13*0439/Lucid Rivian ZF CR5 21 66%22H1 59%Tesla 40%36%30%1-9 2022-2024 5.91/8.87/13.05 2022-2024 PE 43/29/19 2023 2 24/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3,023 4,478 6,195 8,539%85.8 48.1 38.4 37.8 413 591 887 1,305%24.2 42.9 50.1 47.2 0.66 0.94 1.42 2.08 PE 61 43 29 19 PB 7.4 6.4 5.4 4.4 14*0438/2022 6 29.52 20.24%2022 22M9 ASP 1000 SOP 22Q4 ASP 2000 2023 SOP 50 2022-2024 1.4/2.19/3.1 2022-2024 PE 39/25/18 2023 2 24/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,045 1,304 2,015 2,947%10.0 24.8 54.5 46.3 115 140 219 310%11.5 21.7 55.8 41.7 0.63 0.76 1.19 1.69 PE 47 39 25 18 PB 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.2 15*0441 2018 2020 12 2022 100/2023 165 2022-2024 3.71/5.07/8 2022-2024 PE 25/18/11 2023 2 24/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4,717 5,666 7,136 9,790%14.1 20.1 25.9 37.2 358 371 507 800%56.4 3.5 36.6 57.8 0.82 0.84 1.15 1.82 PE 26 25 18 11 PB 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.1 16*05.43*05 44 1 2 3 4*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*45*THANKS 46 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05 518026 S0100521100005 18610589797 S0100122070027 15800615951 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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