资源描述
|2023 03 02 TMT/2522 2522 2522 2025 GDP 10%17.2%2021 520 30%2025 525.3 2022-2023 36.9%8 1 2 2522 21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 35.91 1.09 1.54 1.84 23.3 19.5 2.4 41.39 0.78 1.01 1.34 41.0 30.9 6.6%181 3.7 26729 3.1 18763 2.6%1m 6m 12m 0.8-11.0-1.3-0.3 1 2 2023-03-02 2 3 2023-02-26 3 1 ChatGPT 2023-02-12 S1090522060001-40-30-20-10010Mar/22 Jun/22 Oct/22 Feb/23(%)通信 沪深300 3 2.5.14 1.14 2.15 3 2025 525.3.17.18 1.18 2.19 3、.20 4.23.26 1.5 2 2016-2021 GDP.8 3.9 4.10 5.10 6.10 7 GDP.11 8.11 9.11 10.11 11.12 12.12 13.12 14 2.0.13 15 2021.13 16.14 ZXAZuNrMoNoPsMtQsPtMnM6MaO7NpNoOoMmPiNqQsRfQnNoN7NnMqNMYrQrQxNmMtQ 3 17.15 18.15 19.15 20 IT.16 21 IT.16 22.16 23.16 24.17 25.17 26.18 27.18 28.19 29.20 30.22 31.22 32.22 33.22 34.22 35.22 36.26 37.26 38.27 39.27 40.28 41.28 42.29 43.29 44.30 45.30 1.6 2.6 4 3.7 5.19 6.21 7.23 8.23 9.24 10.25 5 1 2522 5G IPv6 1 2522 2025 2025 GDP 10%6 1 2020 2025 GDP%7.8 10 IPv6 4.6 8 640 6000 8.16 14%14.7 45 11.76 17 37.21 46 4 8 2025 3 2 2021 12 2025 GDP 10%2021 11 2025 3 2020 7 13 2020 4,2020 4,2019 11 3 2018 9 19;2016 9 G20 G20 2016 3;+7 2021 16 1 3 2021 1 4 2020 12 30 2020 12 22 2022 4 GDP 55%2020 11 20 2020-2025 2025 1000 5000,2020 11 13 1 4 6 6 2020 11 28 2022 6 GDP 50%5,1.4 2020 10 22 15 2020 9 23 2020-2022 9 2022 GDP 55%2020 8 14 2020-2025 21 8 2020 6 24 2022 GDP 40%2022 2020 6 17 5G 2020 5G 5 5C 2022 30 3-5 2022 30 2020 5 29 2020 2020 2020 5 29 2020 5 100 APP 5 3-5 2 3.5 6.7 2022 2021 45.5 16.2%GDP 3.4 GDP 39.8%2 2016-2021 GDP 22.627.231.335.839.245.530.30%32.70%34.00%36.20%38.60%39.80%20%25%30%35%40%45%051015202530354045502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021数字经济规模（万亿元）数字经济占GDP比重 9+;3 OECD 2021 5 2021 8.35 11.9%GDP 7.3%10 4 2020 6 2020 2021 37.18 17.2%GDP 32.5%5 6 2022 2021 8.35 11.9%18.3%6.2 6.4 7.1 7.5 8.42124.928.831.737.2051015202530354045502017 2018 2019 2020 2021数字产业化规模（万亿元）产业数字化规模（万亿元）22.60%20.50%19.80%19.10%18.30%77.40%79.50%80.20%80.90%81.70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021数字产业化占比 产业数字化占比 11 2021 81.7%7 GDP 8 3 2021 67 ZB 2019-2021 26%2021 615 EFlops 44%369 EFlops 232 EFlops 14 EFlops GIV 2030 56 ZFlops 65%3.3 ZFlops 27%52.5 ZFlops 80%0.2 ZFlops 34%2021 2015 30%2019 9.3%IDC 2018 33 ZB 2025 175 ZB 30%3%2025 48.6 ZB 27.8%9 10 IDC GDP 2021 2000 20%GDP 2021 44%GDP 15.6%13%2016-2021 7.10%7.20%7.30%7.30%27.60%29.00%31.20%32.50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021数字产业化占GDP 比重 产业数字化占GDP比重0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021数字产业化增速 产业数字化增速0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021全球算力规模（EFlops）全球算力增速 12 34%8%GDP 4%50%GDP 16%12.8%2016-2021 46%15%GDP 9%GDP IDC 2021 2022 1 GDP 11 2021 2022,2021 202 EFlops 33%50%95 EFlops 24%47%2021 374.9 7%1960 104 EFlops 85%50%2021 AI 23 59%50 3 EFlops 30%2021 TOP100 1.34 12 13 IDC Gartner TOP500 HPC TOP100 2.0+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021基础算力 智能算力超算算力 算力增速0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021基础算力 智能算力 超算算力 13 5G 14 2.0 15 2021 2021-2023 2023 200 EFlops 10%2022 2 17 14 8 10“”1 2035 E 10E(2021-2023)2.5kW 2021 520 30%2.5kW 420 80%16 2021 95EFlops 47%24%104EFlops 50%85%3EFlops 30%1662263154015206708316723730942054001002003004005006007008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E总机架数量（万架）大型规模以上机架数量（万架）15 17 18 2 IaaS IT 37%25%19%15%19 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021基础算力 智能算力超算算力 算力增速 16 IT 69%11%9%5%IT UPS 23%20%18%20 IT 21 IT 5G 5G FTTx FTTx PON FTTx EPON/GPON 1.25G/2.5G 10G LightCounting 2020 26.36 2025 39.85 8.62%22 23 LightCounting LightCounting 5G LightCounting 2019 35.04 2025 73.33 13.09%69%11%9%6%5%服务器 网络设备 安全设备 存储设备 光模块及其他23%20%18%8%8%7%6%4%3%3%柴油发电机组电力用户站UPS配电柜冷水机组精密空调机柜列头柜静电地板2636299330783399371239850500100015002000250030003500400045002020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 17 24 25 LightCounting 3 2025 525.3 2021 202EFlops 2021 520 2019 2020 IT 3698.10 4166.80 3 12.4%2025 525.3 4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E EFlops 57.9 87.5 135.6 202.0 262.6 367.6 551.5 854.8%16%51%55%49%30%40%50%55%/EFlops 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 226 315 401 520 657 846 1103 1453 60 89 86 119 137 189 257 350%48.3%-3.4%38.4%14.7%38.5%36.1%36.1%9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 540 890 860 1190 1365 1891 2573 3502 25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%IT 2160 3560 3440 4760 5460 7563 10294 14007%64.8%-3.4%38.4%14.7%38.5%36.1%36.1%ICT 75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%81.0 133.5 129.0 178.5 204.8 283.6 386.0 525.3%65%-3%38%15%39%36%36%0100020003000400050006000700080002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025以太网 网状通道 光互连 18 1 7 30%50%2018 1.8%2025 5.8%2000 6%30%26 27 IDC 2020 65%19%12%4%东部地区 西部地区 中部地区 东北地区0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%0500100015002000250030003500400045002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025数据中心耗电量（亿千瓦时）数据中心耗电量占比 19 28 2 8 5 20 29 3、21 6(80km)(1000km)DSP CD PMD:(RZ/NRZ/ODB)(DQPSK)(BPSK/QPSK)(QAM)DCM DSP DCM ROADM,2.5G 10G 40G 100G 100G 100G()22 30 31 IT IT 0 1 PSK QPSK QAM 20db 100 34 35 IT IT 32 33 IT IT 23 7(1 25 1 6 an)l l0GHz ASK FSK PSK DPSK CPFSK 4 400G point-to-point 100G ZR/400G ER/400G ZR QSFP-DD 400G DSP CFP2 QSFP-DD 5G 400G“”8 2020 InnoLight CFP DCO DP-QPSK DP-16QAM C 100/200Gbps CFP 16 DSP/DCI 24 2020 InnoLight CFP2 DCO DP-QPSK DP-8QAM/DP-16QAM PCS-16QAM C 100/200/400Gbps CFP2 7 DSP/DCI 2020 12 InnoLight OSFP DP-QPSK DP-16QAM PCS-16QAM C 100/400Gbps OSFP 7 DSP/DCI 2020 12 InnoLight QSFP-DD DP-QPSK DP-16QAM PCS-16QAM C 100/400Gbps QSFP-DD 7 DSP/DCI 400G CFP2-DCO ITLA(SiPh)7nm DSP OSNR 22.5dB400G/14dB200G 24W C/C+DP-QPSK/8QAM/16QAM OIF 400ZR OpenZR+OpenROADM OFEC 100G/200G/300G/400G 1000km(400G)2000km(200G)5000km(100G)9 2021 9 OCT-04C2 CFP2-DCO N*400G DWDM OIF-CFP2-DCO-01.0 OIF 400ZR/OpenZR+CFP MSA CFP2 25 2021 9 OCT-04QD-I1CN101 QSFP-DD N*400G DWDM OIF-400ZR-01.1 QSFP-DD MSA QSFP-DD 2021 9 OCT-04QD-I1CN501 QSFP-DD N*400G DWDM OpenZR+QSFP-DD MSA QSFP-DD 400G QSFP56-DD ZR 120km OIF 400G ZR 400G QSFP56-DD ZR+480km Open ZR+(SiPho)400G DSP QSFP-DD CMIS5.1 10 2022 3 EOLD-164HG-E-XX5 QSFP-DD 400G ZR+OpenZR+SiPho DSP 400G QSFP-DD CMIS5.1 480km 2022 3 EOLD-164HG-B-XX5 QSFP-DD 400G ZR OIF 400G ZR SiPho DSP 400G QSFP-DD CMIS5.1 120km 26 4.1 300308.SZ 1987 2010 2012 4 10 300308.SZ 2021 100%100G 200G 400G 800G 5G Lightcounting 2021 II-VI Finisar 1 2020 2 Yole 2021-2026 ADAS CAGR 94%33%2026 50%Strategy Analytic ADAS 2020 4.8 2028 970.7 CAGR 94.2%2020 2%2028 30%Finisar EDA PDK 2022 36 37 wind wind 4.2 300394.SZ 2005 2006 2008 2009 2013-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0204060801002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营收（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（%）归母净利润增速（%）95%96%97%98%99%100%2018 2019 2020 2021光通信模块行业 电工机械专用设备制造 27 2015 2 OSA Barrel LENS MPO 2018 2021 100%200G/400G/800G 2020 7.86 5G LightCounting 2022-2027 CAGR 23.50%22-24 54.86%37.05%29.11%Yole 2022-2027 22%CAGR 2027 63 38 39 wind wind 4.3 002281.SZ 2001 2009 A A 2012 WTD 2013 2016 IPX Almae 2017 2014 6 2017 2019 7.96 20 10G/25G VCSEL/DFB/EML/+PLC/AWG 10G/25G VCSEL/DFB/EML 0%20%40%60%80%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营收（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（%）归母净利润增速（%）75%80%85%90%95%100%2018 2019 2020 2021光无源器件 光有源器件 其他业务 28 5G 5G 10G 25G 100G 400G PLC/AWG 10G/25G VCSEL/DFB/EML 2022 5 9 5G/F5G 610 13.35 70 2022 8 2022 2098.2 3.0%10.99/828 40 41 wind wind 4.4 688205.SH 2000 2022 8 9 5G 5G 20 108 32 27 TUV ISO9001 2015 1.25G 200G 400G O band C band C+L band L band 2007 WDM 5G 5G 10.3 110 100G 200G-10%0%10%20%30%40%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营收（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（%）归母净利润增速（%）0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021传输 接入和数据 其他主营业务 其他业务 29 400G OTN DCI DCI 42 43 wind wind 4.5 688498.SH 2013 1 28 2.5G 10G 25G 4G/5G 2.5G 50G 5G 25mW/50mW/70mW 100G DR1/400G DR4 100G 50G 200G 400G 200G DR4/FR4 400G FR8/LR8 50G 2022 9.8 10G 25G 50G 10G 25G 50G-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%024682018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营收（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（%）归母净利润增速（%）0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021光放大器 光收发模块 光传输子系统其他主营业务 其他业务 30 44 45 wind wind 2022 2022 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%00.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营收（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（%）归母净利润增速（%）0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021光纤接入 4G/5G移动通信网络 数据中心 31 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