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1 Tabl e_First Table_First|Table_ReportType Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 政 府工 作报 告聚 焦能 源体 系改 革升 级:3 5 9 2022 125GW 2023 13.4GW/33.5GWh 2030 60GW 120GW 2023 2022 68.53GW 2023 125.63+52.8%2023 5500+9.7%20%2023 912.1 2025 1.75TWh Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 2023 03 05 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rati ng 投 资建议：()上 次建议：Tabl e_First|Tabl e_C hart Table_First|Table_Author S0590521100002 S0590523020001 Table_First|Table_Contacter Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rel ateRepor t 1 2023.03.02 2 2023.02.26 3 2023.02.19-200%0%200%400%2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 300 2 1 3 5 9 2 2.1 2023 6.5 12 20.8%25%2022 2022 25.9%0.4pct 1%2022 2022 152GW 76.2%125GW 100GW 2022 87.4GW 59.3%10.5%37.6GW 20.9%13.9%20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%ZXCXuNtOtQrQpRsRtOpQoP6M9R6MsQnNoMpMlOrRoNfQoOtN7NpOoNxNsOtMwMnQpO 3 2022 17.5%0.9pct 2025 20%30 60 2030 25%2060 80%2060 1 GW 2022 762GW 2030 60 tce 2060 56 tce 2030 2060 2100GW 11,000GW 2 2012-22 GW 3 2012-22 GW GWEC 4 2016-2021%5%-50%0%50%100%150%200%020406080100 GW%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0102030405060 GW%71.8%71.1%70.4%68.9%67.9%67.5%19.5%18.5%17.6%17.8%17.8%16.0%3.5%3.8%4.2%4.8%4.8%4.9%4.0%4.7%5.2%5.5%6.1%7.8%1.1%1.8%2.5%3.1%3.4%3.9%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 88%87%86%86%85%85%83%83%75%20%12%13%14%14%15%15%17%18%25%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%4 6 2060 GW GWEC 2.2 2023 2022 20.75GW 5.94GW/13.41GWh 183%23 1-2 1.50GW/5.78GWh 2023 13.4GW/33.5GWh 2022-2026 5 CAGR 65.8%7 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E(GWh)2.9 4.7 13.4 33.5 62.2 110.8 168.0 yoy 183.3%149.9%85.7%78.1%51.6%(GWh)2.5 4.0 11.4 28.1 52.3 94.6 142.2 yoy 187.0%147.3%86.4%80.7%50.4%(GWh)0.4 0.8 2.1 5.4 9.9 16.3 25.8 yoy 164.9%164.7%81.8%64.5%58.4%2022 68.53GW 66.04GW 020004000600080001000012000 GW GW 5 8 2022 GW 2.3 2023 5 10.5 2022 9 2022 GW 2.4 2023 6 125.63 10 2023 5500 2022 5012 9.7%2023 52.8%20%3 2023 30 11 LNG()+900 46%13.65 822302 855421 1068222 632831 714708 942997 1256320 0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000 7 5 2 50 5G 2 2500 1000 LNG 87 6000 2027 1.68 43%350 LNG 4000/10 22 5 200 400 6 8000 E 5G 20 1 1090 700 1000 750 6800 158 85 10 11 300 50%2.5 1000 7 A A 60 GDP 3%8 719 1040 1 2 4 500 220 20 3001 2024 3000 57 7100 2500 500 400 156 1-4 100 100 500 11 10 3%.5 6 1 3 500 9 3.400 5G 11%12%2022 2025 1.3 770 3600 528 480 8400 26 1500 480 7100 151 13%4 7.5 2580 310 2900 7.4%1000 4000 1000 CTC 1775 680 1060 6 240 1 66 6800 158 85 10 11 300 50%2.5 3350 420 10 4 4.1 93.4%3 46.7%10%2022 12 2022 2023 2023 12 2023/1.3 2023 3 5%10000/1.3 1.5 1.10 2 0.9 2.5 7()3000 100 1.18 2025 50%2035 40%1.28 11 1.29 2023 1 1 2023 12 31 1.29 1 2.4 2023 6 30 5000 2.5 2023 6 30 5000 2.7 2.7 2023 2000 各政 府官 网，Mysteel，国 联 证券研 究所 整理 13 2023/1.1 2023 1 1 3 31 1000 1.1 3 3000-10000 1.4 2022 10 27 2023 2 20 10 3000 10 20 4000 20 6000 1.5 2023 1 1 2023 2 6 5000 3000 2000 1.5 100 3000 50 4000 100 5000 78 6000 10 1.10 2023 1 10 2 28 4000 1.11 1 11 1.15 6000 1.14 10-20 2000 20-30 3000 30-50 4000 50 6000 1.14 2000 5000 1000/1.16 300 2 1 700 2000-8000 12 1.19 2 6000 5000 7000 1.20 3000 7 1.21 1600 1.23 1200 2023 1 22 10 3000/1500/2.1 1500-10000 2.1 5 1500 5-10 2500 10-20 6000 20-30 8000 30 10000 2.10 2023 2 13-3 13 7 1000-3000 2.21 5 4%10000 5 5%10000 2.23 30()10000 20 30 4000 20 2000 40()10000 30 40 8000 20 30 6000 20 2000 2.24 3 5 1000 5 10 2500 10 20 5000 20 7500 各政 府官 网，Mysteel，国 联 证券研 究所 整理 2023 912.1 2023-2025 2376.2/2500.5/2617.8 912.1/1168.4/1469.5 671.3/825.2/1008.9 240.8/343.2/460.6 13 图表 14：国内乘用车销量 预测 图表 15：国内新能源乘用 车销量预测 来源：中汽 协，乘联 会，国联 证券 研 究所预测 来源：中汽 协，乘联 会，国联 证券 研 究所预测 4.2 2025 1.75TWh 2022 750GWh 130%100GWh 130%1.2 2025 1.75TWh 16 GWh 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 618.0 1082.4 1435.7 1782.9 2208.7 YOY 93.1%75%33%24%24%333.1 649.8 912.1 1168.4 1469.5 YOY 143.1%95%40%40%35%KWh 46.4 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0 GWh 155 289 410 532 676 287.0 432.6 523.5 614.5 739.2 GWh 48.0 44.0 44.5 45.0 45.5 GWh 138 190 233 277 336 1.27 1.25 1.23 1.21 1.20 GWh 371 599 791 978 1215 GWh 66 106 158 230 321 YOY 132.6%60%50%45%40%3C GWh 125 144 165 189 215 YOY 16.10%15%15%14%14%GWh 562 849 1115 1396 1751 5 0500100015002000250030002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 020040060080010001200140016002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 14 6 15 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%/8 9 1198 1 37 0510-82833337 021-38991500 0510-82833217 021-38571373 208 4 6009 29 010-64285217 0755-82775695 010-64285805 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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