资源描述
|2024 01 14 2024 2024 2022-2023 2024 2 1 2 PSL 2014-2020 2022 9-11 2024 PSL 2024 10%2 2024 2023 2023 2023 10 2023 2023 11 2024 2024 2024 2023 2024+2023 2022 2023 1-11 3%2024 3%2024 2023 9.2%2024 8 7800 12960 16 12450 2024 2024 2023 4.8%2024 2023 2024 87.3 46.3 2022 4 21 2015-2017 2018-2020 29 21 2023 9 2024 1 2024 2024 2023 2 2023 2024 0 0 2024 S0680522050001 1 PSL 2024-01-07 2 2024-01-02 3 2023-12-24-32%-16%0%16%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 300 2024 01 14 P.2 1.4 1.1 2023.4 1.2 2024.5 1.3 2024.6 2.8 2.1 2024.8 2.2+.9 2.3.12 2.4.16 3.19 4.23 1%.4 2%.4 3.4 4.4 5%.5 6 2023E-2024E.5 7.6 8 PSL.6 9.7 10.8 11%.8 12%.8 13/.8 14%.9 15.9 16%.9 17.10 18.10 19/.10 20 5mm/.11 21.11 22/.11 23/.11 24 2024.12 25.12 26.12 27%.13 28.13 29.13 30.13 YWFUxOsPsRmNrPpMtOqPnM7N8QaQsQrRoMsOjMmMpOiNmNmRaQnMnNxNsRtMwMtOvN 2024 01 14 P.3 31.14 32 2023.14 33 2024.15 34 1200-4800tex/.15 35 G75/.16 36.17 37 SJG19 GB55030.17 38%.17 39%.17 40%.18 41%.18 42 2023.18 43/.19 44 2024 1 10.20 45 2022.20 46 2024 1 10.21 47.21 48 2024 1 10.22 49.22 50 PE 2024 1 10.23 2024 01 14 P.4 1 1.1 2023 2023 1-11 8.7 21.2%1-11 6.5 17.9%2023 1-11 20.5 8%1%2%Wind Wind 2023 2.66 2022 26.1%2023 1-11 2022 3%3 4 2023 2023 2023-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2005-022006-032007-042008-052009-062010-072011-082012-092013-102014-112015-122017-012018-022019-032020-042021-052022-062023-07:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2012-022012-102013-062014-022014-102015-062016-022016-102017-062018-022018-102019-062020-022020-102021-062022-022022-102023-06:010020030040050060070080090010001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2023 20240200040006000800010000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2023 2024 01 14 P.5 1.2 2024 2024 2-3 2022 2023 2022 2022 30%2022 2023 2023 2024 12%5%ifind 6 2023E-2024E YOY 2019 95941.5 101105.7 5164.2 2020 91218.2-4.9%102680.8 11462.6 2021 101411.9 11.2%106887.1 5475.2 2022 86222.2-15.0%110040.5 23818.3 2022 30%2023E 97416.4 13.0%85189.6 2023 2020-2022 30%2024E 85685.0-12.0%75495.9 2024 2020-2022 25%ifnd 2023*1+TTM 2023*1+2 2023 7 6900-8300 2023 12 2024 2023 9.5 21.3%2024 8.3 2023 13.1%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2016/2/29 2017/2/28 2018/2/28 2019/2/28 2020/2/29 2021/2/28 2022/2/28 2023/2/28 3 TTM TTM 2022 2023 2024 01 14 P.6 7 ifind 2023 PSL 2023 PSL 2023 12 3500 PSL 2014-2020 2022 9-11 2024 2023 10%8 PSL ifind 1.3 2024 5 2013 70%0500010000150002000025000300002018-02 2018-08 2019-03 2019-09 2020-04 2020-10 2021-05 2021-11 2022-06 2022-12 2023-07 0500100015002000250030003500400045002014-122015-042015-082015-122016-042016-082016-122017-042017-082017-122018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-12:(PSL):6900-8300/2024 01 14 P.7 9 Wind 2024 2023 10 1 2023 2024 2024 024681012141618202008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 01 14 P.8 2 2.1 2024 2023 10 24 1 2023 5000 2024 5000 2023 2024 2023 11-12 10 11%2022 43%35%22%2023 2023 30%23%47%2024 2024 2023 2024 12%13/2023 14 9 64.3%5 35.7%2014 20 0500100015002000250030003500400045001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 20232023 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2023 20242023 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 3003504004505005506006507001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 2024 01 14 P.9 14%15 Wind 2.2+2022 71%21%8%16%2022 2023 2020-2022 2023 1-11 3%2024 3%2024 2024 12%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2023Q1-3 024681012141618202000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 75%75%75%72%75%71%73%75%74%71%15%15%15%15%12%19%19%18%18%21%10%10%10%13%13%10%9%7%8%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 01 14 P.10 17 18 2022 2022 8.8%2023 2023 2023 9.2%2024 8 5160 8 7800 12960 16 12450 2024 19/2023 1977/2022 5%2023 12 29 5mm 2017.45/2024 4000500060007000800090001000011000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021 2022 202301002003004005006007001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021 2022 2023 20241450001500001550001600001650001700001750001800001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021 2022 2023 2024 2024 01 14 P.11 20 5mm/21 2024 2024 2000/950/3.5/1100/1400/22/23/1000150020002500300035001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202402000400060008000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-500-300-1001003005007001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2023 20242022-500-400-300-200-10001002003004001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2023 20242022 2024 01 14 P.12 24 2024 E/E/0.67 170 100.8 0.21 2000 371.7 0.35 950 294.2 200 3.5 642.2 0.20 690 122.1 1236.8 888.8+70.0+10.0 50.0 120.0 80.0 1208.8 1088.8 1496.8 1376.8 Wind 2.3 2-3 25 26 2023 JEC 35%29%15%12%9%27%27%26%27%26%27%26%27%28%28%28%24%23%24%18%16%16%16%17%17%17%9%10%12%10%13%13%13%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%2%4%3%3%4%2%2%8%8%7%8%9%9%9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 01 14 P.13 2023 679.5 5.3%12 84.26 2022 20 2023 98%2023 4.8%27%28 2024 2023 29 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2608.2 2702.1 3000 3090.0 3182.7 kg 14 15 16 17 18 36.51 40.53 48.00 52.53 57.29 30 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 30.67 32.58 50 60 60 MW 10 10 10 10 10 30.67 32.58 50.00 60.00 60.00 GW 16.9 5.052 8 12 14 MW 10 9.27 8.00 5.20 4.00 16.90 4.68 6.40 6.24 5.60 GW 3.27 2.29 3.29 4.24 5.49 MW 10 10 10 10 10 3.27 2.29 3.29 4.24 5.49 50.84 39.55 59.69 70.48 71.09 GWEC CWEA 2020 2021 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY0102030405060708090100 2024 01 14 P.14 31 2023E 2024E 2025E 2027E GW 159 183 207 268 GW 190.8 219.6 248.4 321.6 1%2%10%20%1GW/GW 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.95 2.18 12.28 31.85 solar power europe InFoLink CPIA 2022-2023 Wind 2023 53 19.5 32 2023/2 3 2023 9 1 7 2023 6 F10 10 2023 8 F03 6.5 2023 11 6 5 2023 11 F02 5 6 2023 3 4 6 12 2023 2 1 20 2023 5 F13 15 2023 10 53 19.5 2024 87.3 46.3 60 2024 1 5 3000 12 24 2024 2024 01 14 P.15 33 2024/3 12 2024 1 10 2024 2 10 2024 5 6 2024 1 3 2024 60 0.3 2024 1 2 20 2024 1 10 2024 1 15 2024 60 15 2024 3 2024 12 2024 3 12 2024 87.3 46.3 Wind 2015-2017 2018-2020 29 21 2022 4 21 2023 9 2024 34 1200-4800tex/2023 2023 2024 010002000300040005000600070002018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024 01 14 P.16 35 G75/2.4 2023 2024 2022-2023 2023 4 2024 1 2021 2023 20 20 32 7000900011000130001500017000190002018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024 01 14 P.17 36 2023 12 29 2 2021 1 2022 10 622 5701 9176 3474 60.9%2023 4 1 6-9 2024 37 SJG19 GB55030/m SJG19 m SJG19 GB55030 m GB55030 m%50 2076 10.38 2521 12.60 445 2.23 21.4%2087 10.43 4728 23.64 2641 13.20 126.5%777 3.88 1110 5.55 333 1.67 42.9%762 3.81 817 4.09 55 0.27 7.2%5701 28.51 9176 45.88 3474 17.37 60.9%2024 2023 2023 2023 9 6500 17%38%39%Wind Wind 051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 20230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 2023 2024 01 14 P.18 2023 9 500 16%2023 2024 40%41%Wind Wind 2024 2023 3.99 22%7.54 20%42%42 2023 2004-2013 723766 10-20 70%70%35465 2023 57000 70%39900+75365 2023 2019-2021 35%65%90%102780 178144.6 22%20%Wind 2020 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2015/12/312016/6/302016/12/312017/6/302017/12/312018/12/312019/6/302019/12/312020/6/302020/12/312021/6/302021/12/312022/6/302022/12/312023/6/30 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021 2022 2023 2024 01 14 P.19 3 0 1 T 44/43/2022 40.52 144.54 45.34 230.4 7.01%335.24 62.45 162.18 56.58 281.2 11.62%328.40 26.72 155.40 74.86 257.0 11.46%340.86 82.27 132.68 57.13 272.1 15.52%339.90 50.19 157.43 43.65 251.3 7.62%298.39 58.76 175.98 50.66 285.4 11.33%282.23 37.12 143.88 38.44 219.4 13.24%308.27 256.70 11.11%331.48 26.30 13.61 3.77 43.69 Wind 2022-2023 10 PB 0.997 2016 2 2015 ROE 10.66%2023 Wind ROE 6.65%2023 PB 0.65 2016 0.997 PB 2024 01 14 P.20 44 2024 1 10 Wind 2 11.3/45 2022%62.12 10.1 80.66 98.73 9.1 89.51 82.73 9.0 78.96 67.34 4.9 84.83 77.73 8.3 83.49 15.61-1.8-2.83 11.3 2022 10 2015 7 2019 8 PB 1.277 1.239 2015 2019 ROE 3.34%16.25%2019 2019 2019 2023 2023 Wind ROE 13.52%2023 1.44 PB 01020304050607080901002014/1/22014/6/22014/11/22015/4/22015/9/22016/2/22016/7/22016/12/22017/5/22017/10/22018/3/22018/8/22019/1/22019/6/22019/11/22020/4/22020/9/22021/2/22021/7/22021/12/22022/5/22022/10/22023/3/22023/8/22024/1/2 2.455x 1.996x 1.536x 1.077x 0.618x 2024 01 14 P.21 46 2024 1 10 Wind 8 1/10 PE 112.7 2023 5 31 34.1 2024 PB 1.6X 2022 9 7.6 2024 PB 1.8X 181 47/11.3 1 11.3 10 PE 112.7 34.12 7.64 181 Wind ifind 3 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3 15.58%ROE 9.46%2023 10 2014 5 PB 1.695 ROE 11.8%2023 PB 1.389 2023 Wind ROE 11.47%0510152025302014/1/22014/5/22014/9/22015/1/22015/5/22015/9/22016/1/22016/5/22016/9/22017/1/22017/5/22017/9/22018/1/22018/5/22018/9/22019/1/22019/5/22019/9/22020/1/22020/5/22020/9/22021/1/22021/5/22021/9/22022/1/22022/5/22022/9/22023/1/22023/5/22023/9/22024/1/2 2.633x 2.284x 1.936x 1.588x 1.239x 2024 01 14 P.22 48 2024 1 10 Wind 49 2023Q1-3 14.22%2023Q1-3-1.36%15.58%0.33 1.84 ROE 9.46%Wind ROE=*2019-2020 2022 PEG PE 2018 0510152025302014/1/22014/5/22014/9/22015/1/22015/5/22015/9/22016/1/22016/5/22016/9/22017/1/22017/5/22017/9/22018/1/22018/5/22018/9/22019/1/22019/5/22019/9/22020/1/22020/5/22020/9/22021/1/22021/5/22021/9/22022/1/22022/5/22022/9/22023/1/22023/5/22023/9/22024/1/2 3.950 x 3.291x 2.632x 1.973x 1.314x 2024 01 14 P.23 50 PE 2024 1 10 Wind 4 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002014/1/22014/6/22014/11/22015/4/22015/9/22016/2/22016/7/22016/12/22017/5/22017/10/22018/3/22018/8/22019/1/22019/6/22019/11/22020/4/22020/9/22021/2/22021/7/22021/12/22022/5/22022/10/22023/3/22023/8/22024/1/2收盘价 17.93x 24.66x 31.39x 38.12x 44.85x 2024 01 14 P.24“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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