20240128_广发证券_家用电器行业：23Q4公募配置比例持续回升关注家电板块股息率_22页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/22 Xml Table_Page 投资策略周报|家用电器 证券研究报告 Table_Title 23Q4 Table_Summary 23Q 4 Wind 23Q4 700.0-3.0%23Q4 2.55%+0.12pct&+0.07pct+0.02pct+0.04pct 23Q4+75-136-33-23+1.4pct-1.9pct+0.2pct-1.4pct 23Q4-34+0-1.4pct+0.0pct 23Q4-2-1-23+4+0.1pct+0.0pct-2.1pct+0.2pct 23Q4-2-22+0-1.1pct-1.4pct+0.6pct 23Q 4 Wind 23Q4 1474-5.3%10.93%-0.14pct 23Q4+0.4pct+0.2pct+0.5pct+1.7pct A/H A/H 2 024.0 1.22-202 4.01.26 300 2.0%0.2%1.2%1.9%20 24W 3 20 24.01.15-2 024.0 1.21 YoY-20.9%-0.8%YoY+108.2%+3.5%YoY-40.5%+2.4%YoY+9.8%+89.6%YoY-33.4%-5.1%YoY+1.0%+45.4%YoY-6.0%+5.3%YoY+37.8%+37.1%Table_Grade 2024-01-28 Table_PicQuote Table_Author SAC S0260517050002 SFC CE No.BNV293 0755-82771936 Table_DocReport:12+14%2024-01-21:12 2024-01-14:2024-01-07 Table_Contacts-23%-18%-12%-7%-1%5%01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 000333.SZ 54.63 2023/10/31 71.66 4.78 5.28 11.76 10.63 8.35 7.25 20.70 20.23 000921.SZ 20.40 2023/01/09 28.48 2.10 2.37 11.65 10.29 2.94 1.70 21.20 19.34 00921.HK 16.86 2023/01/09 23.53 2.10 2.37 8.05 7.12 1.42 0.38 21.20 19.34 600690.SH 21.00 2023/10/30 29.54 1.75 1.97 12.37 11.00 6.86 5.95 14.98 14.37 06690.HK 22.05 2023/10/30 30.21 1.75 1.97 11.20 9.95 5.85 4.99 14.98 14.37 688169.SH 282.95 2023/11/24 466.30 14.95 18.65 20.03 16.05 14.85 11.25 17.01 17.50 002705.SZ 14.57 2023/10/29 20.85 1.22 1.39 10.98 9.63 3.15 2.39 12.64 12.59 002011.SZ 13.75 2024/01/11 15.96 0.69 0.89 17.72 13.85 16.63 6.45 16.52 17.44 605555.SH 22.85 2023/12/18 25.10 0.91 1.00 22.02 20.00 1.58 1.20 12.21 11.85 Wind 2024/01/26 H WUAZwPnQsRmNpRsRrMrOpOaQdNbRtRqQtRmQeRnNrQfQoNmM6MqQzRvPtOmNuOoMxP 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器.5 2023Q4&.5.10 2024.01.22-2024.01.26.13 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.13.16.16“”.17.19.20 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 1%.5 2%.5 3 Q4%.5 4%.6 5%.8 6 0.2%.13 7 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.14 8 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.14 9 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.14 10 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.15 11 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21.15 12 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21.15 13 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21.15 14 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21.15 15 LME/2.1%.19 16 LME/4.2%.19 17/0.4%.19 18/6.4%.19 19 2024 1/19 20 1=7.1808 1=7.1938.19 1.7 2.7 3%.8 4.9 5%.10 6.11 7.12 8 1.8pct.13 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 2023Q4&1.&2023 Wind 23Q4 700.0-3.0%23Q4 2.55%+0.12pct 2023 1%Wind 2%3 Q4%Wind/Wind/-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001,0001,2001,40011Q211Q412Q212Q413Q213Q414Q214Q415Q215Q416Q216Q417Q217Q418Q218Q419Q219Q420Q220Q421Q221Q422Q222Q423Q223Q4 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2008Q12008Q42009Q32010Q22011Q12011Q42012Q32013Q22014Q12014Q42015Q32016Q22017Q12017Q42018Q32019Q22020Q12020Q42021Q32022Q22023Q12023Q40.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 2023Q4 1.62%0.02%0.07%0.23%0.61%+0.07pct-0.01pct-0.01pct+0.02pct+0.04pct/4%Wind 23Q4 23Q3+75-136-33-23 23Q4+49.9-47.1-9.6-4.8+1.4pct-1.9pct+0.2pct-1.4pct 23Q4-34+0 23Q4-3.8+0.0-1.4pct+0.0pct 23Q4-2-1-23+4-2-22+0 23Q4+1.2+0.0-3.2+0.1+0.1pct+0.0pct-2.1pct+0.2pct-3.5-7.0+0.2-1.1pct-1.4pct+0.6pct 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%2008Q12008Q32009Q12009Q32010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 503 537 600 509 533 400 424 439 672 619 694 232 123 118 119 119 205 202 262 358 363 227 191 269 339 251 290 283 236 171 209 244 211 10 11 14 8 14 9 27 49 99 83 60 48 42 55 48 51 26 56 49 43 66 32 7 7 9 5 13 1 9 6 1 2 2 10 4 19 32 23 14 10 8 17 17 15 7 4 2 2 0 0 3 4 3 1 0 9 7 19 14 25 28 13 4 26 33 10 1 1 5 3 13 6 14 12 24 5 9 181 90 61 58 72 18 30 32 54 18 16 123 37 64 55 70 33 40 61 64 155 133 48 15 17 14 29 20 9 18 11 11 11 Wind a 2 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 239.6 216.6 251.4 213.7 188.3 132.8 121.6 132.1 201.1 205.6 255.5 47.5 27.1 33.0 31.7 29.9 42.2 33.0 65.4 102.8 114.7 67.6 137.3 134.7 152.7 119.4 142.9 147.8 122.3 108.6 112.6 110.3 100.7 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.7 0.7 5.4 10.1 19.2 16.3 11.5 9.1 7.1 10.2 6.9 9.5 2.0 4.5 5.2 2.9 5.3 1.5 2.7 1.5 2.6 0.9 2.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.3 2.1 6.7 7.6 6.1 7.4 7.9 8.5 7.1 8.4 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 8.4 17.5 11.9 14.3 3.0 2.2 0.2 1.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 1.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.1 0.2 81.9 42.6 42.9 29.6 26.0 8.7 6.2 13.7 8.4 5.7 2.2 78.8 36.8 53.5 43.8 43.3 15.1 13.4 25.3 19.8 43.7 36.7 12.8 5.1 8.0 6.0 11.1 4.6 0.6 2.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 Wind a 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 3%21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.5 4.6 3.9 3.4 3.6 5.0 5.4 6.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.8 3.2 5.0 5.7 3.8 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 9.5 7.9 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.6 2.6 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.7 4.5 5.3 7.9 7.7 6.2 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.8 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.2 2.1 0.8 1.1 8.7 7.4 3.8 7.5 0.4 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 5.6 8.6 8.7 7.9 2.0 1.6 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 3.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.2 6.4 5.0 5.1 4.9 3.8 2.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 2.1 0.9 13.9 11.6 14.6 17.4 13.7 8.1 7.5 7.4 6.6 11.3 9.9 14.9 10.5 13.5 5.0 8.0 4.9 0.8 3.0 2.0 2.6 3.3 Wind a 2.23Q4 23Q4 Wind 23Q4 1474-5.3%10.93%-0.14pct QFII 5%Wind 8.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%05001,0001,5002,0002,500%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 23Q4-24.7-25.1-27.1-4.9 23Q4-0.3pct+0.03pct-0.8pct-1.3pct 23Q4-6.9+0.3 23Q4-0.8pct+0.4pct 23Q4+3.8-1.3+0.2-1.6-1.7+5.5-0.0 23Q4+0.2pct-0.9pct+0.5pct-1.6pct-0.3pct+1.7pct-0.0pct 4 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 928.3 1003.8 930.6 694.2 818.5 678.4 761.5 743.3 882.0 829.8 805.0 570.2 352.4 254.7 194.9 199.5 217.3 218.9 261 224.0 223.5 198.4 132.8 145.2 204.1 155.6 196.4 160.9 172.8 155.7 159.0 151.8 124.7 13.2 8.5 8.9 10.6 16.0 19.7 14.8 53 32.5 38.3 31.3 35.4 19.3 29.1 35.9 20.8 25.2 18.2 4.7 5.2 4 2.5 1 1.1 1.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 37.7 29.8 43 36.4 43.1 35.3 39.3 46.1 39.6 33.5 37.3 26.5 20.2 21.6 13.1 12.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.2 4.2 2.9 3.5 2.2 2.1 1.4 2.2 6.9 3.9 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.3 4.5 4.7 4.5 2.3 0.8 52.7 36 51.1 39.9 37.9 20.7 15.2 13.6 12.2 7.3 5.5 3 7.6 14.6 6.7 11.8 7.9 3.1 8.6 17.1 22.6 0.5 5.6 2.7 3 0.7 0.4 0.3 Wind 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 5%21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 18.9 21.1 18.5 17.8 19.8 20.1 21.5 20.2 21.8 21.7 21.4 18.3 15.2 11.7 10.3 10.1 12 12.1 12.7 11.0 11.0 11.0 8.1 8.8 10.8 10.7 11.3 10.3 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.2 9.4 10.3 8.4 7.5 5.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.2 10.3 11.4 11.5 10.5 9 11.2 13.5 8.8 10.0 9.2 8.2 9.8 8.2 6 2.4 2.4 2.0 6.1 5.7 6.2 9.7 10.6 8.5 9 9.5 9.5 9.9 10.6 9.8 8.6 8.8 10.7 12.1 12.2 10.5 8.8 5.4 5.4 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.0 1.7 1.4 1 1 1.2 4.7 2.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.1 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.6 4.8 4.3 3.4 2.6 0.9 4.1 4.2 6 6.5 5.5 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 0.5 2.4 4 2.7 3.7 4.2 0.9 2.9 4.4 6.1 0.4 5.9 3.7 3.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 Wind 2022 172 2020-2022 47%2022 73%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 6 2024/1/26 2020A 2021A 2022A 23 2022A 2023E 2022A 2023E 1,896 102%72%46%50%245.1 264.2 6.2%7.0%4,041 41%41%58%58%295.5 335.5 4.7%4.8%351 30%30%50%50%14.3 29.1 4.0%4.1%2,098 39%33%36%40%147.1 165.3 2.3%3.2%62 71%64%89%90%4.5 7.8 5.6%11.4%41 86%763%121%100%2.4 3.1 7.4%7.6%66 40%68%54%50%5.5 7.3 4.7%5.5%50 31%41%59%60%1.4 5.0 1.8%6.0%59 88%32%117%100%3.1 3.2 2.4%5.3%26 30%80%60%60%2.1 1.7 4.7%4.0%203 29%35%60%60%15.7 17.5 1.8%5.2%35 37%31%31%30%2.1 2.2 1.3%1.9%116 250%114%58%58%9.8 10.3 3.6%5.2%87 82%102%115%90%5.3 5.8 1.8%6.0%415 57%80%167%60%20.7 22.5 6.1%3.2%110 44%21%34%34%9.6 10.1 2.4%3.1%28 35%40%41%41%1.6 2.1 2.4%3.1%49 40%41%183%100%1.0 1.5 3.2%3.1%28 97%50%99%99%0.5 0.8 1.6%3.0%814 52%52%62%62%31.9 36.8 2.3%2.8%76 44%33%32%32%3.9 4.6 1.3%2.0%34 0%42%50%50%1.8 2.4 3.3%3.5%33 0%79%79%79%1.6 1.4 4.1%3.3%212 45%31%30%30%17.0 7.3 1.2%1.0%14 0%28%56%56%0.7 0.5 3.2%1.9%395 10%10%10%10%11.8 21.1 0.5%0.5%127 47%41%48%48%7.8 9.6 3.2%3.6%89 43%54%59%59%2.3 3.1 2.0%2.1%287 30%10%50%50%16.8 22.6 4.7%3.9%216 102%32%39%39%4.7 7.0 1.5%1.3%138 28%25%28%28%8.2 8.5 1.4%1.7%64 30%31%30%30%5.0 1.5 1.3%0.7%796 86%32%42%42%25.7 30.9 0.9%1.6%67 0%22%45%45%3.0 3.4 2.5%2.3%120 0%0%0%0%8.4 7.3 0.0%0.0%Wind 2023 2023 1 26 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 A/H A/H 7/EPS/PE x 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E 000333.SZ 54.63 4.21 4.78 5.28 3%14%11%11.7 11.8 10.6 600690.SH 21.00 1.56 1.75 1.97 13%12%12%15.3 12.4 11.0 000921.SZ 20.40 1.03 2.10 2.37 48%103%13%12.5 11.6 10.3 002668.SZ 6.61 0.39 0.68 0.76 630%75%11%13.6 9.8 8.8 000651.SZ 32.17 4.35 4.69 5.06 6%8%8%7.0 7.2 6.6 002959.SZ 51.93 2.46 2.96 3.51 36%20%18%24.3 16.8 14.2 002705.SZ 14.57 1.17 1.22 1.39 21%5%14%13.9 11.0 9.6 002242.SZ 12.71 0.69 0.76 0.80-29%10%5%23.4 15.3 14.5 002032.SZ 53.01 2.56 2.79 3.07 6%9%10%18.2 18.6 16.9 301332.SZ 12.22 0.41 0.36 0.45 12%-14%27%0.0 31.3 24.6 300824.SZ 9.03 0.14 0.25 0.30-57%77%18%61.0 34.0 28.8 603215.SH 17.30 0.94 1.25 1.41 49%33%13%15.1 15.0 13.3 603486.SH 41.44 2.95 1.27 2.34-16%-57%84%24.4 30.1 16.4 688169.SH 282.95 9.00 14.95 18.65-16%66%25%19.5 20.0 16.1 688696.SH 112.98 7.16 2.14 4.21 4%-70%97%22.8 44.9 22.8 688007.SH 25.88 0.26 0.36 0.51-49%38%43%96.0 59.9 42.0 600060.SH 20.90 1.29 1.73 2.01 48%35%16%10.2 12.1 10.4 688793.SH 33.65-1.45 0.21 1.58-235%115%634%-149.1 20.3 002508.SZ 21.27 1.66 1.85 2.09 18%11%13%16.0 11.3 9.9 300911.SZ 37.63 1.96 2.11 2.35 0%7%12%23.1 15.8 14.2 300894.SZ 16.24 0.77 0.78 0.90-16%1%15%32.1 19.0 16.5 605336.SH 14.88 1.16 0.94 1.16-13%-19%24%12.2 15.1 12.2 603195.SH 95.65 3.58 4.13 4.76 15%15%15%26.5 22.0 19.1 603515.SH 17.38 1.05 1.29 1.48-14%23%14%14.4 13.0 11.4 002050.SZ 29.40 0.69 0.83 1.05 53%20%27%30.5 29.2 23.0 002011.SZ 13.75 0.79 0.69 0.89 107%-13%28%16.5 17.7 13.9 605555.SH 22.85 0.80 0.91 1.00-1%14%10%17.6 22.0 20.0 Wind 2024/01/26 2023-2024 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 2024.01.22-2024.01.26 8 1.8pct 1 2023 300 2.0%-2.8%-13.9%0.2%-1.8-0.7%3.1%()1.2%-0.8-8.0%32.7%()1.9%-0.1 5.5%6.6%Wind 2024.01.22-2024.01.26 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21 AVC YoY-20.9%YoY+108.2%YoY-40.5%YoY+9.8%YoY-33.4%YoY+1.0%YoY+19.9%YoY-55.3%YoY-6.0%YoY+37.8%YoY-20.1%YoY+14.4%YoY+66.6%YoY+38.7%YoY-3.4%YoY+14.8%YoY-50.9%YoY+5.4%6 0.2%Wind 2024.01.22-2024.01.26-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%1 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 7 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21 8 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21 9 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21-43%-41%-68%-33%20%-21%0%-6%-20%11%36%-27%-19%67%-19%10%-32%1%-55%108%138%38%14%1%143%38%49%39%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-21%-41%-33%-6%108%10%1%38%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%YoY YoY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 10 2024W03 2024.01.15-2024.01.21 11 2 024 W0 3 20 24.0 1.15-20 24.01.21 12 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21 13 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21 14 2024W03 2024.01.01-2024.01.21 4365654239963790328327811701156701000200030004000500060007000-1%9%5%8%-2%9%15%16%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%YoY YoY-15%-22%-16%2%41%-20%-18%3%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%YoY YoY4424 6814 4088 3916 3499 2943 1755 1610 010002000300040005000600070008000-1%8%4%5%7%10%10%15%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%YoY YoY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 2024 Mobile Aloha 2023 2024+2021 15 15%2020 Aloha Aloha 15 3 1-2 CES2024 AI Ballie 2022 WISHUG Ballie IoT 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 AI 2023 15000 6618 1699 AI 2024 1 24-25 2024 SAKURA 2023 2024 2023 2023 GDP CPI 2024 2024 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 1.5 2024 2023 1+1 2 30 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 15 LME/2.1%16 LME/4.2%wind wind 17/0.4%18/6.4%wind wind 19 2024 1/20 1=7.1808 1=7.1938 wind wind 450055006500750085009500105001150019/0820/0120/0620/1121/0421/0922/0222/0722/1223/0523/10140019002400290034003900440019/0820/0120/0620/1121/0421/0922/0222/0722/1223/0523/10360041004600510056006100660071007600810019/0820/0120/0620/1121/0421/0922/0222/0722/1223/0523/10153555759511513519/08 20/01 20/06 20/1121/04 21/09 22/0222/07 22/12 23/05 23/1005010015020025017/04 18/05 19/06 20/07 21/08 22/09 23/1032Open Cell 49Open Cell55Open Cell 43Open Cell5.50006.00006.50007.00007.500019/09 20/04 20/11 21/06 22/01 22/08 23/03 23/10:识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 Table_ResearchTeam 2017 2017 2020 2021 2022 Table_RatingIndustry 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%Table_RatingCompany 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%Table_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-Table_LegalDisclaimer/4 1 2/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/22 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|家用 电器 1 2/5 Table_InterestDisclosure(1)12 Table_Copyright