20240131_华鑫证券_轮胎行业：高性价比+全球化中国轮胎竞争力持续提升推荐赛轮轮胎、玲珑轮胎、森麒麟和三角轮胎_63页.pdf

+2024 01 31 SAC S1050523110001 SAC S10501220800222 2023 2023 3.93 20.7%3.11 22.68%0.82 13.8%2023 2023 4.3 19.8%2023 2022 1.3 Tire Business 2022 75 34 2022 18.93%16.1%2023 5.30 29%XVFUxOtOsRnMpRpMtOpQnM8OdNbRpNqQnPmQfQnNmOfQrRoP9PqQyQvPtPpNvPnNqQ3 2023 2023 2024 1 31 PE 18 PE 27.7 PE 2022(88%)79%61%49%2023E PE 8.2 12.08 15.5 19.8 9600 1500 220 120 2024 160 1200 2023-2025 14.64 20.18 24.29 2024 PE 14.32 7200 2790 1800 2023-2025 31.38 38.13 44.10 2024 PE 9.9 4 2688 2023 82%2023-2025 13.99 16.95 17.90 2024 PE 6.73 2800 1200 2025 1200 2024 2023-2025 13.61 18.21 21.82 2024 PE 11.59 5 2024-01-31EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E601058.SH 12.08 0.43 1.00 1.22 28.09 12.08 9.90 601966.SH 19.62 0.20 0.99 1.37 98.10 19.82 14.32 002984.SZ 28.50 1.23 1.84 2.46 23.17 15.49 11.59 601163.SH 14.26 0.92 1.75 2.12 15.50 8.15 6.73 601500.SH 4.28 0.01 0.16 0.29 281.1 27.6 14.8/000589.SZ 5.37 0.37 0.71 0.93 12.82 7.56 5.75/Wind 6 目 录CONTENTS1.2.3.4.5.7 01 9 1-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 10 QYResearch QYR 2022 1568.77 2023E 1625.61 1.3 2028 1925.82 CAGR 3.45%16%15%10%18.93%2 2017-2028F 3 2023()16%15%10%7%4%4%4%3%2%2%2%2%2%MRF2%2%2%1%20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050001000015000200002500030000350002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()()()()11()5 4 75 CR3 6 75 CR3 90 2015 12()7 75 1991-2013 15.2%2013-2016 2017-18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1991-2013 2013-2016 2017-()13 68595 50090 18505 2023 69%60%34562 11103 2023 45665 1 75%75002023=+=5.3 2023 18.2 29%8 9 2023(),29%,71%1330 340 6100 1500 11.81%550 590 3700 2200 8.97%1900 320 3500 1300 8.94%-200 1500 1600 4.20%600-1200-2.29%300 130 300 600 1.69%760-500-1.60%450 80 600 850 2.52%400 215-0.78%12215 0 32690 0 57.19%18505 1875 50090 8050 100.00%14 2023 200+10 2023 11 2023 8%7%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%59%7%7%5%5%4%4%4%3%3%3%55%15 Research and Markets 2022 2117 2023E 2271.57 2022-2027 7.3%2027 3011 12 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 16 2022 47.1%2023 50.5%49.7%50.1%48.71%51.29%13 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2,48.71%,51.29%14 17 2023 2023 4000 15 16 发布日期 政策文件 发布部门 主要内容2014/9 轮胎行业准入条件 工业和信息化部提出新建和改扩建轮胎项目必须符台国家产业规划和产业政策；鼓励发展节能、环保、安全的绿色轮胎；轮胎生产企业应当具备健全的能源管理体系。2019/1产业结构调整指导目录(2019年本)国家发改委将高性能子午线轮胎及智能制造技术与装备、航空轮胎、农用子午胎及配套专用材料和设备生产列入“鼓励类”；新建斜交轮胎和力车胎(含手推车胎)列入“限制类”。2020/12020年工业节能监察重点工作计划工业和信息化部对炼油、对二甲苯，纯碱、聚氧乙烯、硫酸、轮胎、甲醇等石化化工行业的重点用能企业，开展强制性单位产品能耗限额标准执行情况专项监察。2023/7工业重点领城能效标杆水平和基准水平(2023年版)国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部、生态环境部、市场监管总局、国家能源局全钢子午线轮胎单位产品能耗标杆水平、基准水平分别为235、340千克标准煤/吨；半钢子午线轮胎单位产品能耗标杆水平、基准水平分别为290、430千克标准煤吨。2023/7产业结构测整指导日录(2023年本，征求意见稿)国家发展改革委50万条/年及以下的斜交轮胎和以天然棉帘子布为骨架的轮胎等生产装置被列人落后生产工艺装备。发布日期 政策文件 发布部门 主要内容2021/4全省落实“三个坚决”行动方案(2021-2022年)山东省新旧动能转换综合试验区建设领导小组到2022年，年产能120万条以下的全钢子午胎(工程轮胎、航空轮胎宽断面无内胎除外)、500万条以下的半钢子午胎(缺气保用轮胎、赛车胎高端产品、超低断面轮胎除外)企业全部整合退出退出产能可以进行减量置换。逾期未完成的直接关停退出。淘汰不能实现密闭式自动投料的炼胶机，润达不能实现冲氨工艺的子午胎行业硫化设备。2022/1关于坚决遏制“两高”项目盲目发展促进能源资源高质量配置利用有关事项的通知山东省人民政府对新建煤电、炼化、钢铁、焦化、水泥(含熟料和粉磨站)及轮胎项目，实施提级审批，由省级核准或备案。2022/62022年山东省利用综合标准依法依规推动落后产能退出工作方案山东省工业和信息化厅、山东省发展改革委、山东省生态环境厅等六部门年产能120万条以下的全钢子午胎(工程轮胎、航空轮胎、宽断面无内胎除外)、500万条以下的半钢子午胎(缺气保用轮胎，赛车胎高端产品、超低断面轮胎除外)企业全部整合退出。2023/8关于优化轮胎铸造项目管理有关事项的通知山东省发展和改革委员会、山东省工业和信息化厅、山东省自然资源厅等九部门低于能效基准水平的轮胎、铸造企业，按照前期制定的能效改造提升方案，加快推进实施，确保2025年4月底前完成。各市要加快淘汰退出不符合安全、环保等要求的项目，无法整改的违规项目，以及低于能效基准水平仍未制定改造提升方案或无法改造提升的项目18 2016-2023 2.1%2016-2023 1.6%17()18()0%1%2%3%4%5%6%62000640006600068000700007200074000760007800080000820002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()0%1%1%2%2%3%3%1850019000195002000020500210002150022000225002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()19 2023 Wind 2023 5.9+22%2023 69%+9.4pcts 2023 1.4+14%2023 60.2%+8.2pcts 19()20(%)0204060802019 2020 20212022 2023 20240204060801002019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 22(%)21()-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100002000030000400005000060000700002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%11000115001200012500130001350014000145002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()20(Tire Business)2022 32.94 12 2022 24.65 17 E-QM5 E-HS9 PRO PLUS 24 2023 20 23 1 282.602 266.003 178.924 124.205 71.606 69.577 63.108 57.459 41.7610 36.7711 34.7012 32.9413 31.3714 28.7615 28.4016 27.5917 24.6518 21.3519 18.7120 17.65 21 Test World 25 205/55R16 Test World 17 ContiPremium Contact 5 9.1 Gree-Max HP 010 8.3 ContiPremiumContact 5Primacy 3Turanza T001Cinturato P7 BlueEfficientGripPerformanceGreen-Max HP010Ventus Prime 3Mozzo Sport 15%9 10 9 8 8 9 9 6 15%9 10 9 10 9 9 8 6 15%8 7 10 8 9 8 7 8 10%9 9 8 9 8 9 8 5 15%9 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 10%10 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 10%10 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 10%9 7 7 10 9 7 7 6100%9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.3 6.7 22 Wind 2021-2023 2015-2022 26()27(%)0204060801001201401602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023M9 051015202530 23 Wind 28 12 18 7 1 1445 6950 1.46 3450 1300 160 1600 260 265 265 900 165 2100 165 600 850 80 850 80 700 150 215 215 600 130 1200 180 500 90 1300 320 1300 320 1600 200 1600 200 1500 220 1500 220 120 1200 160 12001200 24 Tire Business 2009 2024 OTR 30 29 2023H1 2022H1 15,538,092 17,818,690-12.8%$38.80 10,305,935 11,014,690-6.4%$82.80 6,425,224 7,579,516-15.2%$63.41 5,935,969 5,758,093 3.1%$61.39 6,787,759 9,675,064-29.8%$53.69 5,668,535 5,633,283-0.7%$39.06 4,287,254 5,529,292-22.5%$78.24 2,699,466 2,938,468-8.1%$60.44 2,108,408-$34.98 1,878,114 1,837,883 2.2%$45.34 15,111,531 16,777,763-9.9%$78.91 76,746,287 84,562,742-11.6%$60.78 27.05%0%27.05%14.72%0%14.72%21.74%0%21.74%20.04%0%20.04%101.89%0%101.89%84.75%0%84.75%1.24%0%1.24%6.16%0%6.16%4.52%0%4.52%0%6.23%6.23%0%6.46%6.46%0%7.89%7.89%0%6.46%6.46%0%6.46%6.46%22.27%6.46%28.73%25 GS(2016)1663 02-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%020406080100120140-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02004006008001000-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100200300400500600700800900 27 2017-2019 2020 2022 17.49 2023 H1 7.59 5.59 74%2023 H1 1.03 0.79 77%31 2017-2023H1 33 2017-2023H1 32 2017-2023H1 15%19%10%25%13%/18%28 37 2023H1-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%35 2023H1&33%27%7%11%12%/10%34 2023H1&-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%36 2023H129 39 2019-2023H1 40 2017-2023H1 38 2017-2023H1-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0204060801002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003502019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2020 2021 2022 8.9%2023 2023H1 12.26%(55.13%)2023 H1 1.2 0.64 52.7%2023 H1 0.3 0.2 65%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0501001502002503003504002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%01002003004005002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:41 42 43 30 Wind 44-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%01002003004005006007008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030003500%31 Wind Wind 2023 948.9 2018 2023 CAGR 49.88%45-50%0%50%100%150%200%020040060080010002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%4632 48 1 5 1.5 2 2022 30%90%2022 50%90%3 3004=+-7=7 47 2023 31.6%2022 5.9 2023 12 37.7%24%2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 722 944 1200 1400 1650 3610 4720 6000 7000 8250 30%40%60%75%90%1083 1888 3600 5250 7425 32 57 108 158 223 74%91%46%41%1310 2041 3163 4438 5967 1965 3062 4745 6657 8951 50%60%70%80%90%983 1837 3321 5325 8056 29 55 100 160 242 87%81%60%51%2066 3725 6921 10575 15481 62 112 208 317 464 80%86%53%46%33 N 5 3.3 1.5 2010 2022 10.2 15.7 CAGR 3.68%49 5 1.5 3.3 11 15 0.7 16-22 10-20 1.1-1.6 7 4.2 1.7 7-11 2-5 2.2-3.5 4 2 2 6 3 20%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0246810121416182010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%500%1%1%2%2%3%0.410.420.430.440.450.460.470.480.490.501999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%0.740.750.760.770.780.792011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 51 52 53 34 CEIC Data 54-1%0%1%2%3%2.22.42.62.83.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%0.000.050.100.150.200.250.302014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 Wind 2023 3.36 5.33%2023 2041 6.07%55.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%00.511.522.533.542014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:55%56%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%00.10.20.30.40.50.60.72014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E2025E2026E:0337 43.0%45.0%26.0%24.0%12.0%21.0%57 58,19%,24%,14%,12%,5%(/),26%,34%,11%,10%,21%(/),24%,76%,8%,8%,4%,4%38 Wind 59()60()61 62(/)02000400060008000100002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 02004006008001000120014002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00039 63()64(/)65()0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0000%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000 66(/)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%051015202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00040 67()68(/)69()70(/)48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00041 71(/)72(/)73(/)74(/)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00042 Wind 2020 2021 2022 75:76 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000 04 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600205/60R16 255/45R18 225/65R17 050100150200250300350205/60R16 255/45R18 225/65R17 05001,0001,5002,000 44 Simple Tire eBay Walmart 79/78/77/80(=100)45 Wind 100 PTGT PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk PTGT 314.2 142.0 134.4 124.9 137.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.7 16.9 9.7 8.2 4.6 29.0 5.7 9.6 7.7 17.3 30.7 5.5 6.0 50.8 19.5 9.7 9.1 9.5 65.0 24.1 17.6 19.9 8.3 17.5 9.7 4.7 7.1 4.3 33.5 6.1 5.5 5.2 4.6 10.4 6.9 5.3 3.1 3.6 8.3 0.5 2.4-3.701020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023M9 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%46 Wind 82 83%050100150200250 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 81 2022 51.10%79.23%87.95%61.45%2023 6.09pct 7.04pct 3.87pct 6.61pct200250300350400450500550 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 84 47 Wind 86 85/2018-2022 2022 2018-2022 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 21.76 63.59 103.71 19.82 14.32 11.89 10.93 34.51 23.05 12.08 9.90 8.57 16.82 30.67 24.98 15.49 11.59 9.66 12.13 18.27 13.24 8.15 6.73 6.3748010203040506070(TTM,)63.60 13.54 18.12 27.69 2023 18.12 27.69 87 2012-2024 SW TTM Wind05101520253035-PE(TTM)051015202530354045-PE(TTM)0102030405060-PE(TTM)49 88 89 90 91 050100150200250300350400450500-PE(TTM)Wind05 01020304050%92()93()94(%)95(%)-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9()01234567%51-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9 Wind 96 97()52 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000S(5+2)1500 220 120 24 2024 600 24%400 Wind2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 585 585 585 585 585 25 25 25 25 25 700 700 1000 1000 1000 220 220 320 320 320 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 200 200 200 200 200 6 6 6 6 6 600 700 1000 1200 1200 150 180 200 240 240 6 6 6 300 400 800 100 120 200 200 400 200 200 400 400 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 220 220 220 220 220 600 1200 120 160 160 6800 6900 7800 9100 10500 1375 1505 1765 2125 2125 25 25 25 25 25 6 6 6 6 6 12 12 12 8206 8436 9608 11268 12668 2.80%13.89%17.28%12.42%98 53 99 3.0 100 10 7 2022 2200 2 NO.1 2022 7 3.0+23 101()102()103(%)104(%)-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9()-20-10010203040%012345678%54-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9 Wind 105(/)106()107(%)0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9()0123456 55 Wind2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1000 1000 1200 1800 320 350 500 800 5.6 6 15 15 2400 2700 2700 2700 450 500 500 500 160 160 160 160 0.86 1.69 7 7 1200 1300 1600 1600 160 260 260 260 6 10 10 10ACTR 265 265 265 265 400 500 900 1500 165 165 165 600 5160 5660 6560 8360 1195 1540 1690 1990 12.46 17.69 32 32 6355 7200 8250 10350 13%15%25%56 108 4 109 110 111 0510152025303540%112()113()114(%)115(%)57 0%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9()Wind-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%58 Wind 116(/)010203040 117(%)118 Qirin EV Qirin EV 255/40ZR20 Qirin EV 12%12%5%2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1200 1200 1400 1500 3 5 8 1000 1500 1600 1600 100 200 200 1200 360 600 2200 2803 3565 5108 27%27%43%020406080100120%119()120()121(%)122(%)59 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0204060801002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 M9()-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%60 Wind 123 2022 124()051015202530 20 1200 71.45 28 74.07 650 78.07 800 106.91 10 72.6 268861 13 2023/32022 62/12 A 300 1 20%2 10%20%3-10%10%4 10%2-10%10%3-10%报告编号:240131155135