20230309_西南证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：地产链系列_41页.pdf

西 南证 券研 究发 展中 心 房 地 产 团 队 池天惠/刘洋 2023 年3 月 2 1 1 wind 1 30 2 7%40%12 0%3 3 23+5%-8%+4%+22%2 2 29.1%14.9%1-2-11.6%50%20%-30%3 70 1 70 0.0%70 70 36 13 21 6 15 3 70 70 28 27 29 18 25 31 30 19 15 10 16 15 36 3 3 3 5 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 39 40 38 47 43 38 40 50 54 58 51 55 33 0102030405060702022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/1 0-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.62021/1 2021/6 2021/11 2022/4 2022/970:(%)30-41%-47%-53%-59%-60%-43%-35%-37%-26%-31%-28%-31%-32%12%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0200040006000800010000 YOY0102030405060708090 0YBYwPnQpMoPqOtQnQqPoPbR9R7NoMqQmOpMeRqQmPeRpPxOaQnMrMvPtQqQNZmNqR 1 2 wind 8 02.13-02.19 15 172.3 17%79%9 02.20-02.26 15 204.2 19%98%2 16 122%54%1-2 41%02.20-02.26 13 37.81 15%36%4%57%6.79 8%115%40%63%53.82 16%136%57%71%20.07 16%52%29%42%16.47 29%102%42%57%16.29 43%152%3%124%15.62 17%432%201%84%13.42 23%147%25%37%7.07 17%246%117%52%6.07 17%84%20%38%5.72 14%46%-10%55%1.95 3%62%-15%91%1.3 14%-12%-6%62%1.21 34%49%45%13%0.58-8%30%90%27%0510152025303540 13 1 3 wind 08-09 11-13 14-16 2008 08M12 09M2 09M3 08M12 2014 15M2 15M12 15M8 15M8 2023 3-6 3 2022 4000 2023 2 21 12220 86.1%5.7-60-40-200204060801001202007-022008-012008-122009-112010-102011-092012-082013-072014-062015-052016-042017-032018-022019-012019-122020-112021-102022-09:-60-40-200204060801001202005-022006-022007-022008-022009-022010-022011-022012-022013-022014-022015-022016-022017-022018-022019-022020-022021-022022-02:-60-40-200204060801001202005-022006-032007-042008-052009-062010-072011-082012-092013-102014-112015-122017-012018-022019-032020-042021-052022-06:1 4 wind 2022 2023 2023 1-3 1/2/3 30%/60%/10%2018-2021 47%2022 40.4%2022 47%7.3 1.0 2023 45%6.5 2022 50%2023 7.0 11.7%2011 9.7 7.2-2012 9.9 7.9-2013 11.6 7.9-2014 10.5 8.1 78.2%2015 11.2 7.4 66.6%2016 13.8 7.7 71.2%2017 14.5 7.2 60.2%2018 14.8 6.6 48.1%2019 15.0 6.8 46.9%2020 15.5 6.6 44.5%2021 15.7 7.3 48.2%2022 11.5 6.3 40.4%1-3 2022 6.3 7.3 40.4%47.0%1.0 0 6.3 2023 6.5 6.8 45.0%47.0%0.3 0.5 7.0 2022 50%Yoy 11.7%2023 1 2022 2021 85 20 2000 36.3%2020 63.9%13 1 2035 75%80%1.03pp 2 2019 39.8 0.8 3 31%2000 55%2000-2015 2030 13 641 825 1,006 804 920 680 906 779 530 467 204 48-85-2000200400600800100012002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 36.2%49.7%63.9%79.1%80.8%82.7%78.7%90.8%91.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000 2010 2020 7.3 9.9 11.0 12.6 13.9 15.5 16.3 11.5 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.4-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02468101214161820 YOY5 2 wind 22Q4 22Q4 1.4%1.1%0.29%0.31%0.39%0.40%0.18 6(%)(%)7.68 7.97 5.56 4.16 1.83 1.73 2.15 1.45 1.91 2.03 1.91 1.20 1.10 1.17 0.83 1.24 1.06 0.70 0.59 0.53 0.67 0.50 0.39 0.69 0.38 0.40 0.16 0.34 0.36 0.12 0.01 0.02.04.06.08.010.022Q3 22Q41.86 1.92 1.34 1.01 0.44 0.42 0.52 0.35 0.46 0.49 0.46 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.20 0.30 0.26 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.17 0.09 0.10 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00.51.01.52.02.522Q3 22Q4 2 wind-7 开发 装修装饰、装修建材、家电、家居用品、物业服务等 经纪服务、银行等 水泥、玻璃玻纤、钢铁、房屋建设、工程机械 等 08-09年 15 26 19 30 30 30 30 78%126%174%179%246%211%200%11-12年 19 23 27 26-26%57%36%53%-14-15 年 23 13 39 38-34 24 77%99%99%151%-61%52%21-22年 6-6-23%-23%-2 wind 08-09 08M0-09M12 09M12 10M4-10M8 0%11M4 11M4 08-09 8 08-09 2 11-12 9 wind 11-12 11M10-13M2 13M2 13M9 12Q1 14M3 0%11-12 2 14-15 10 wind 14-15 14M3-16M3 15M3 15M2 17M9 0%18M4 0%15M1 15M11 18M8 14-15 2 21-22 11 wind 21-22 21M9 22M4-20%-30%21-22 2 12 1 2 3 0%4 2 13 wind ToC ToC ToB 2022 ToC ToB ToB 1 22Q3 ToC ToB 21 68 71 80 91 ToB 2 22Q3 ToC ToB 21 38 101 57 150 3 ToB 2021 22Q3 87 90 87 93 101 150 25 28 29 33 38 57 020406080100120140160201720182019202020212022Q3TOB TOC 注：ToB 样本 企业 包 括东 方 雨虹、江山 欧 派、蒙 娜丽 莎、东 鹏 控股、三棵 树、亚 士 创能、苏博 特 ToC 样本 企 业包 括 海尔 智 家、美 的集 团、老 板 电器、坚朗 五 金、伟 星新 材、欧 派 家居、索菲 亚 67 73 74 74 71 91 70 73 74 72 68 80 020406080100201720182019202020212022Q3TOB TOC 5.1%5.5%10.7%7.7%1.1%-0.8%13.5%13.1%13.8%13.1%12.6%6.3%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%201720182019202020212022Q3TOB TOC 2 14 wind ToB ToC 2022 11 ToC ToB ToB 2022 9 2 18.3 45%26.4 ToC 2022 10 2 12.3 34%16.6 ToB ToC ToB 2015 30%2018 79%62%50%ToC C 01020304050602018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-01ToB(TTM,)051015202530352018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-01ToC(TTM,)ToB(TTM,)ToC(TTM,)45%30%28%21%19%18%17%14%0%10%20%30%40%50%2015 注：ToB 样本企业包括东方雨虹、江山 欧派、蒙娜丽 莎、东 鹏控股、三棵 树、亚 士创能、苏博 特 ToC 样本企业包括海尔智家、美的集团、老 板电器、坚朗 五金、伟星新 材、欧 派家居、索菲 亚 79%62%55%49%47%30%26%18%16%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 18.3 26.4 16.6 12.3 3 15 2022 TOP500 B 60%16 4200 40 4 B B C 27%30%20%21%30%16%18%18%15%17%18%18%14%17%15%14%13%14%10%14%9%8%10%13%12%10%11%9%7%9%8%11%8%11%9%6%7%6%9%7%9%8%6%6%4%8%6%7%6%4%3%3%4%4%6%4%3%3%3%2%3%3%3%2%2%2%1%3%3%2%3 16 2021 1262 16%500 79 65%1000 31 2.59%2021 25%2017-2021 2772 3459 2021 89 4.6%2021 2000 CR5 5%2017 1402 2021 1048 1059 1147 990 1087 1262 8%-14%10%16%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%02004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY10%12%18%20%25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1402 1265 1160 1093 1048 0500100015002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2772 2993 3080 3111 3458 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%010002000300040002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY wind 3 17 wind 2021 3088 1.12%,2021 2324 2017-2021 6.9%2021 10,6 10 2021 1677 2.5%PVC PE PP PVC 2020 16.4%4.1%1.7%2036 1747 2416 2128 2324-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY3.6%2.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.6%0%1%2%3%4%PPG 1522 1567 1606 1636 1677 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%14001450150015501600165017002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY16.4%4.1%1.7%1.1%1.0%0%5%10%15%20%3 18 wind 2025 2%2008 40%80%70%40-60%30%80%40%80%86%84%0%20%40%60%80%100%-10%-5%0%5%10%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 YOY-40-200204060802011-022011-122012-102013-082014-062015-042016-022016-122017-102018-082019-062020-042021-022021-122022-10:%:%13.7 13.1 13.7 13.9 17.6 17.9 17.5 24.2 30.3 31.6 0102030402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3 19 wind 2019 32%60%60%30%10%2020 4.8%2.0%1.6%+2020 32%60%60%30%10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%20 2 26+10+3 2 29800 20 2+8+/+2+3 2 39800 7 2 1 0 999+29800 22 2+7 2+1 29800+0 15 15 28888 999 22+10+49800 3 20 wind 2018 6708 2021 7475+2022 50%618 45%Q3 30%6708 7062 7112 7475 30 33 45 47 620064006600680070007200740076002018 2019 2020 2021 1.2.1.2.1.2.1.2.31.6%38.6%10.0%35.5%63.2%45.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2020A 2021A 2022Q1-3 yoy yoy 3 21 wind 20 2022 1-11 6543 7.2%2021 2021 39.5%2022 1-11 513 6.6%22 Q3 0.22%5.27 40%19%26%16%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 12.7%-4.3%-8.1%-10.6%3.2%7.1%3.4%-6.1%-14.1%-17.3%-13.1%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12 3 22 wind 2021 100 100+2022 2988 6.3%926 4.7%6 700 10.4%3371 9.0%5714 3.3%1969 0.3%161 104 100 89 103 96 0 50 100 150 200 31%33%17%36%34%37%13%32%29%36%0%20%40%60%80%100%2.6%6.2%3.7%2.2%-6.2%7.3%-10.4%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%6206406606807007207407607802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(3 23 wind 2022 1-11 1586 9.6%C B 95%19.8 2021 101.5 2022Q3 31.8%30.6%1.3%1.4%2022 1-11 259 1.2%4.5%2021 1.8%1.2 2025 25%2022Q2 36.7%44.5%2023 115 155 177 246 170 42.6%34.7%18.7%38.8%10.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 977 931 928 921 939 15.3%-4.7%-0.3%-0.8%2.0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%88090092094096098010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 39.8 57.5 59.3 67.6 45.1 56.6 60.4-28.5%44.4%3.0%14.1%-33.3%25.4%6.7%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%010203040506070802021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 3 24 wind 2021 5693 17%5.51 7684 52.3%2021 TOP10 3.55 6.2 12.84%2021 10.2 11.7%3.2 23.0%1.76 1.43 55.0%45.0%2021 33.9%7.5%6.68%6.3%2000-2021 100 2022H1 16.9 10.4 7.3 7.1 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.9 9.3 8.1 5.2 5.3 3.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 2.1 05101520 4747 5964 6564 7684 3718 4279 4880 5693 39%44%50%52%0%20%40%60%02000400060008000100002018 2019 2020 2021 19.5%21.5%22.1%23.8%80.5%78.6%77.9%76.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018201920202021 66.1%33.9%2022Q1 3 25 wind 21 6 1 21 6 2 21 6-22 10 3 22 11 11 22M11 EPS PE PEG 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 1209.HK 93%0.76 0.96 1.25 111%27%30%40 21 31 0.36 0.77 1.02 2602.HK 42%1.65 1.62 2.19 14%-2%36%-16 17-8.04 0.47 2669.HK 97%0.24 0.39 0.51 41%60%30%29 11 17 0.71 0.18 0.57 6049.HK 78%1.53 1.91 2.39 26%25%25%33 13 19 1.28 0.53 0.75 001914.SZ 22%0.48 0.61 0.77 17%26%26%39 22 21 2.27 0.83 0.80 6098.HK 131%1.28 1.42 1.73 50%11%22%31 4 8 0.63 0.40 0.36 1995.HK 99%0.37 0.45 0.58 58%23%28%28 3 5 0.48 0.14 0.19 9666.HK 11%1.62 1.09 1.30 71%-33%20%17 9 9 0.24-0.44 1516.HK 143%0.41-0.27 0.19 114%-166%-171%16-15 0.14-0873.HK 92%0.46 0.13 0.27 60%-71%102%10 8 8 0.17-0.08 3316.HK 95%1.16 1.56 2.09 47%34%34%16 7 11 0.35 0.22 0.31 2869.HK 74%0.26 0.25 0.34 19%-2%32%24 11 15 1.24-0.45 1755.HK 86%0.62 0.59 0.92 16%-5%57%15 5 6 0.92-1.03 0.11 9909.HK 152%0.69 0.82 1.02 44%19%24%18 3 5 0.42 0.13 0.22 3319.HK 97%1.67 1.42 1.69 32%-15%19%7 3 5 0.22-0.23 6989.HK 81%0.42 0.51 0.62 57%22%21%9 4 5 0.16 0.16 0.26 9983.HK 32%0.48 0.52 0.58 45%9%11%9 4 4 0.20 0.43 0.39 4 26 wind()21 YOY 22 YOY PE(TTM)PE(2023)PB(LF)2022.11%515 35.1 23%-16 14 2.6 45 65%13%12%3%3%4%9%91%60%883 42.0 24%-28 21 3.4 37 49%31%13%4%3%19%159 6.7-24%1.9-72%85 21 2.8 32 58%22%17%3%6%58 0.7-74%-1.5-1.0-302%-238%-44 2.3 18 66%25%9%2%305 8.9 9%0.50.6-94%-93%162 49 6.4 18 46%16%12%10%8.6%393 12.2 3%-32 25 8.3 38 PPR 48%PE 27%PVC 16%9%30%70%PPR 8%459-4.2-183%3.04.1 172%198%-44 20.4 43 19%41%14%11%31%65%6.2%107 7.1 77%-19 13 4.7 91 67%24%4%5%38%59%3%4.7%110 1.5-82%1.72.6 11%66%-14 1.5 35 76%6%8%5%4%C+2.1%82 3.1-44%-4.6-3.2-246%202%-14 2.7 57 65%7%13%13%2%51%49%2.2%4 27 wind()21 YOY 22 YOY PE(TTM)PE(2023)PB(LF)2022.11%843 26.7 29%26.728.0 0%5%33 26 5.5 66 38%50%6%5%1%78%4.8%4.8%205 1.2-90%9.511 675%797%266 15 3.5 58 79%14%4%3%80%3%15%0.4%5.6%52 0.9-12%-23 1.5 42 70%14%11%O2O 5%26%52%15%7%4.0%110 5.1 28%-21 17 5.9 69 57%34%9%7%58%34%1%2%388 16.6 97%-21 18 4.6 51 51%,18%17%14%+ODM 5.6%141 5.6 78%-24 18 3.9 66 52%32%14%3%52%34%14%6%35 2.4-23%-34 14 0.9 37 50%16%17%7%4%6%46%26%28%206 5.8-2%-30 24 4.5 54 45%27%11%7%7%9.8%97 2.6-40%-3.5-2.5-236%-197%-23 5.7 79 66%21%7%6%24%76%2%4 28 wind()21 YOY 22 YOY PE(TTM)PE(2023)PB(LF)2022.11%2459 130.7 47%-17 14 2.7 27 16%31%24%15%7%5%6%44%2%49%25%43%40%33%25%17%14%20%11%28%31%3734 285.7 5%-13 11 2.7 31 46%36%8%45%ToB 36%35%27%34%25%32%15%18%302 13.3-20%-24 14 3.1 51 47%24%8%4%30%4%46%19%1%31%17%29%10%22%35%15%56 2.1 46%-26 19 4.4 47 912%8%90%10%138 3.8 37%-42 30 9.2 57 88%6%6%463 19.4 5%20.7 6%22 20 6.5 44 30%44%15%11%16%13%532 20.1 214%-29 25 9.2 51 52%47%1%22%31%26%119 2.8-34%3.7 31%32 26 5.2 39 81%11%6%1%90%10%29 wind 0200400600800100012001400160018002000-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%2008/10/12008/12/302009/3/302009/6/282009/9/262009/12/252010/3/252010/6/232010/9/212010/12/202011/3/202011/6/182011/9/162011/12/152012/3/142012/6/122012/9/102012/12/92013/3/92013/6/72013/9/52013/12/42014/3/42014/6/22014/8/312014/11/292015/2/272015/5/282015/8/262015/11/242016/2/222016/5/222016/8/202016/11/182017/2/162017/5/172017/8/152017/11/132018/2/112018/5/122018/8/102018/11/82019/2/62019/5/72019/8/52019/11/32020/2/12020/5/12020/7/302020/10/282021/1/262021/4/262021/7/252021/10/232022/1/212022/4/212022/7/202022/10/18()2008M10 2009M3 2009M12 2011M12 2012M7 2013M2 2014M3 2015M4 2016M3 2021M9 30 050100150200250300-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%2008/10/12008/12/302009/3/302009/6/282009/9/262009/12/252010/3/252010/6/232010/9/212010/12/202011/3/202011/6/182011/9/162011/12/152012/3/142012/6/122012/9/102012/12/92013/3/92013/6/72013/9/52013/12/42014/3/42014/6/22014/8/312014/11/292015/2/272015/5/282015/8/262015/11/242016/2/222016/5/222016/8/202016/11/182017/2/162017/5/172017/8/152017/11/132018/2/112018/5/122018/8/102018/11/82019/2/62019/5/72019/8/52019/11/32020/2/12020/5/12020/7/302020/10/282021/1/262021/4/262021/7/252021/10/232022/1/212022/4/212022/7/202022/10/18()09M3-10M4 08M2-M12 10M9-11M9 10M5-M8 11M10-12M10 12M11-14M2 14M3-15M2 15M3-16M10 16M11-18M2 18M3-19M2 19M3-21M5 21M5-22M11 22M12-wind 31 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