20240130_国信证券_公用事业行业：火电盈利模式重塑重视优质火电资产_32页.pdf

|2024 01 30 021-S0980521060002 0755-S0980522090003 010-S0980521070002 021-2023 44.0%26.2%2038 2021 2010-2021 2.8%/1ZAZyRqNnOmNoQtQtOsNnM8ObP7NtRmMtRmQkPqQqRjMtQrQaQpPxONZoMrRwMsQpM 01 02 03 04 1 2 3 4 Wind(120)(20)802011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 6 7 70%-80%8 9 Wind 01 02 03 04 2035 100%2023 56%2030 80%2035 100%2030 115GW 30GW,215GW 2038 2020 400 10GW 2023 12 2031 10 11 GW EEG KVBG 50%2022 6744 5805 813 27.9%24.0%3.4%55.2%2023 24.14 121.90 56.76TWh 5.2%26.5%12.3%44.0%12 2022 13 2023 16 17/MWh 14 15 2010-2021 2.8%2010-2021 36%217.1%33.1%2022 18 2019 19 2010-2022 3500kwh 2023.56 10 145-152 20 MWh 21 22 RWE 25 26 23 24 Wind Wind RWE 29 GW 30 27 2022 28 2022 01 02 03 04 31/MWh 32/MWh 300g/kwh 5500 100/0.0382/kwh 10.45%5500 900/10g/kwh 0.0122/kwh 3.35%1 g/kwh 5500/250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380500 636 70 706 0.1766 0.1837 0.1907 0.1978 0.2048 0.2119 0.2190 0.2260 0.2331 0.2402 0.2472 0.2543 0.2614 0.2684600 764 70 834 0.2084 0.2167 0.2251 0.2334 0.2418 0.2501 0.2584 0.2668 0.2751 0.2834 0.2918 0.3001 0.3084 0.3168700 891 70 961 0.2402 0.2498 0.2594 0.2691 0.2787 0.2883 0.2979 0.3075 0.3171 0.3267 0.3363 0.3459 0.3555 0.3651800 1018 70 1088 0.2720 0.2829 0.2938 0.3047 0.3156 0.3265 0.3373 0.3482 0.3591 0.3700 0.3809 0.3917 0.4026 0.4135900 1145 70 1215 0.3039 0.3160 0.3282 0.3403 0.3525 0.3646 0.3768 0.3889 0.4011 0.4133 0.4254 0.4376 0.4497 0.46191000 1273 70 1343 0.3357 0.3491 0.3625 0.3760 0.3894 0.4028 0.4162 0.4297 0.4431 0.4565 0.4700 0.4834 0.4968 0.51021100 1400 70 1470 0.3675 0.3822 0.3969 0.4116 0.4263 0.4410 0.4557 0.4704 0.4851 0.4998 0.5145 0.5292 0.5439 0.55861200 1527 70 1597 0.3993 0.4153 0.4313 0.4472 0.4632 0.4792 0.4952 0.5111 0.5271 0.5431 0.5590 0.5750 0.5910 0.60701300 1655 70 1725 0.4311 0.4484 0.4656 0.4829 0.5001 0.5174 0.5346 0.5519 0.5691 0.5863 0.6036 0.6208 0.6381 0.65531400 1782 70 1852 0.4630 0.4815 0.5000 0.5185 0.5370 0.5555 0.5741 0.5926 0.6111 0.6296 0.6481 0.6667 0.6852 0.70371500 1909 70 1979 0.4948 0.5146 0.5344 0.5541 0.5739 0.5937 0.6135 0.6333 0.6531 0.6729 0.6927 0.7125 0.7323 0.7521 33 2022 g/kwh 2022 2022 290g/kwh/34 35/kwh 36 2022 37 2022 38 2022 39 2023 1-11 Wind Wind 40 202201 202202 202203 202204 202205 202206 202207 202208 202209 202210 202211 202212 202301 202302 202303 202304 202305 202306 202307 202308 202309 202310 202311 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2022 731 120 532 394 382 23.0%490 11.2%1277 928 837 314 46.7%820 138 78 29.3%266 574 240 252 28.0%586 52.9%258 2427 93.0%322 120 382 100.0%399 33.5%130 49.5%267 503 91.7%892 100.0%789 66.6%42 2020-2022 01 02 03 04/3 EPS PE2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E600011.SH 8.92 1,400 1.01 0.90 8.8 9.9600027.SH 5.97 611 0.51 0.61 11.7 9.8600795.SH 4.39 783 0.41 0.49 10.7 9.0 Wind 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032