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折叠屏手机专题：出货量逆市增长，增量组 件迎新机 遇 行业深度报告 行业报告 电子 2023 年 3 月 8 日 强 于 大 市（维 持）S1060519090004 XUYONG S1060520070001 FUQIANG S1060517070006 YANLEI S1060121070070 XUBIYUN 平安观点：2016 2022 11.3%12.1 2022 64%1490 2023 52%2270 2020 MIM MIM UTG CPI UTG CPI UTG CPI 证券研究报告 2/23 2022 2023 52%2270 1 2 BOM A 3 UTG CPI UTG UTG UTG 1 2 3 4 EPS PE 2023/3/8 2023/3/8 2021A 2022 2023 2024 2021A 2022 2023 2024 精研科技 300709.SZ 23.23 43.25 1.19 0.65 1.78 2.23 19.5 35.7 13.1 10.4 未评级 长盈精密 300115.SZ 12.00 144.12-0.50 0.04 0.57 0.95-24.0 300.0 21.1 12.6 未评级 京东方 A 000725.SZ 4.12 1567.42 0.67 0.14 0.25 0.39 6.1 29.4 16.5 10.6 未评级 凯盛科技 600552.SH 13.47 127.24 0.21 0.15 0.27 0.41 64.1 89.8 49.9 32.9 未评级 长信科技 300088.SZ 6.64 163.01 0.37 0.34 0.42 0.55 17.9 19.5 15.8 12.1 未评级 Wind Wind WUBYvMrMmPmNtNmPsPrOoP9PdNbRsQoOoMmPlOmMsRkPmMyR9PqRsPMYnPvNwMmNtO 3/23 正文目录 一、.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3.9 二、.11 2.1.11 2.2 UTG.14 三、.16 3.1.16 3.2.18 3.3 OPPO.19 3.4.20 四、.21 五、.22 4/23 图表目录 1 iPhone.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 5 2020.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10 iPhone().9 11 2018-2022.9 12 2023 2270.10 13 2022 330.10 14 22H1.11 15 2022.11 16 BOM.11 17.12 18 2020 160.12 19.13 20 MIM.13 21 MIM.14 22.14 23 2022 U.14 24 OLED.15 25 CPI UTG.15 26 UTG 2023 CPI.15 27 CPI UTG.15 28 UTG.16 29.17 30.17 31.18 32 Flex Hybrid.18 33.18 5/23 34.19 35 UI 6.19 36 OPPO.20 37 OPPO.20 38.21 39.21 40.21 6/23 一、1.1 2007 iPhone 1 iPhone MacRumors 2016 43 IDC 2022 11.3%12.1 2 IDC-20%-10%0%10%20%040080012001600 7/23 3 4 Counterpoint Counterpoint 2018 FlexPai 2019“”2022 4 VIVO X FOLD 5 2020 1.2 8/23 6“”mini 7 APP 9/23 8 9 Mate X Galaxy Fold 16999 15999 iPhone11 Pro Max 9599 OPPO Find N Z Flip 3 8000 10 iPhone()11 2018-2022 1.3 Counterpoint Research 2022 1490 64%2023 52%2270 3393173112952932762712622552402331901830%20%40%60%80%100%8000 800010000 1000012000 1200014000 1400016000 1600018000 1800020000 10/23 12 2023 2270 Counterpoint Research 2022 330 IDC 2021 145 2022 118%330 22Q4 113.7 109%13 2022 330 IDC 22H1 Galaxy Z Flip 3 Galaxy Z Fold 3 62%OPPO 16%3%2022 47.4%Mate X2 16.5%OPPO OPPO Find N 13.8%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%0510152025-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%020406080100120 11/23 14 22H1 15 2022 Counterpoint IDC 二、BOM/13.3%/5.8%16 BOM Galaxy Fold Galaxy S9+BOM BOM BOM BOM BOM 218.8 34.4%79.0 21.0%13.3%48.5 7.6%38.0 10.1%-2.5%/87.5 13.7%29.8 7.9%5.8%Soc 71.0 11.2%67.0 17.8%-6.7%10.9 1.7%8.8 2.3%-0.6%/Wifi 7.0 1.1%7.0 1.9%-0.8%79.0 12.4%57.0 15.2%-2.8%RF/AF/21.0 3.3%19.0 5.1%-1.8%7.0 1.1%5.5 1.5%-0.4%9.2 1.4%4.9 1.3%0.1%19.0 3.0%15.5 4.1%-1.1%57.8 9.1%44.5 11.8%-2.8%636.7 100.0%375.8 100.0%0.0%CGS-CIMB 2.1 VIVO X Fold 500 1200 OPPO OPPO OPPO VivoHonor 12/23 OPPO Find N2 17 Mate Xs 2 Z Fold 3 OPPO Find N Magic V VIVO X Fold U-136 213 174-KH VateC 255g 271g 275g 288g 311g-800 600 1200 GFK 2019 103%132 2020 160 2011-2020 38%18 2020 160 GFK U U U OPPO 1-50%0%50%100%150%200%050100150200 13/23 2 3+Fold U U 4 Mate X 5 Mate X OPPO Find N 19 MIM MIM 20 MIM 14/23 MIM 21 MIM MIM 2mm 0.4mm 2mm 1mm 10mm 4mm 0.2mm 0.06mm Ra 5um 1um 2023 5 TrendForce 2022 4.36 2023 14.6%5 22 23 2022 U U 82%KH Vatech S-connect 18%OPPO VIVO 鋐 TrendForce TrendForce 2.2 UTG OLED OLED CPI UT G 3456 YoY+14.6%15/23 24 OLED CPI UTG CPI UTG GFK 2020 CPI UTG 6 UTG UTG 2023 UTG CPI 25 CPI UTG 26 UTG 2023 CPI GFK GFK UTG 1 0.2mm 0.2mm 0.1mm 0.05mm 0.2mm 1.1mm CPI UTG 90%UTG UTG UTG 27 CPI UTG CPI UTG 5080m 3050m 89%90%91.5%92%13mm 13mm 0%20%40%60%80%100%UTG CPI 16/23 300 600/100 150 Kolon SKC Mate X2 P50 Pocket Magic V Flip2/3 Fold2/3 OPPO Find N GFK UTG UTG UTG 50 UTG UTG 0.20.3mm UTG 2023 UTG 23 GFK UTG 180 UTG 2022 UTG 180*1490*45%=12.07 2023 180*2270*55%=22.47 28 UTG GFK 三、3.1 2019 2 Galaxy Fold Counterpoint 2022H1 62%46%1 Galaxy Z Flip 2021 Galaxy Z Flip3 4600%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%0510152025 UTG 17/23 52%2021 2 Galaxy Z Fold Galaxy Z Fold3 250 2021 3 W W23 15999 29 30 CPU Fold 2019.02 15999 7.3 160.9x62.8mm 160.9x117.9mm 15.7mm 6.9mm 276g 855 4380mAh W20 2019.11 19999 7.3 160.9x62.8mm 160.9x117.9mm 15.7mm 6.9mm 278g 855 Plus 4235mAh Z Flip 2020.02 11999 6.7 87.4x73.6mm 167.3x73.6mm 15.4mm 6.9mm 183g 855 3300mAh Z Fold 2 2020.03 16999 7.6 159.2x68.0mm 159.2x128.2mm 16.8mm 6.9mm 282g 865 Plus 4500mAh W21 2020.11 19999 7.6 159.2x68.0mm 159.2x128.2mm 13.9mm 6.9mm 282g 865 Plus 4390mAh Z Fold 3 2021.09 14999 7.6 158.2x67.1mm 158.2x128.1mm 16.0mm 6.4mm 271g 888 4400mAh Z Flip 3 2021.09 7599 6.7 72.2x86.4mm 166x72.2mm 17.1mm 6.9mm 183g 888 3300mAh 三星 W22 2021.10 16999 7.6 158.2x67.1mm 158.2x128.1mm 16mm 6.4mm 288g 888 4400mAh Z Fold 4 2022.08 13999 7.6 158.2x67.1mm 158.2x128.1mm 16mm 6.4mm 271g 8 Gen1+4400mAh Z Flip 4 2022.08 8499 6.7 72.2x86.4mm 166x72.2mm 17.1mm 6.9mm 183g 8 Gen1+3700mAh W23 Flip 2022.10 9999 6.7 84.9x71.9mm 165.2x71.9mm 17.1mm 6.9mm 187g 8 Gen1+3700mAh W23 2022.10 15999 7.6 155.1x67.1mm 155.1x130.1mm 15.8mm 6.3mm 280g 8 Gen1+4400mAh 18/23 OPPO Galaxy Z Fold Galaxy Z Flip U Galaxy Z Fold4 60%15%UTG UT G OLED“”2023CES 360 Flex Hybrid 31 32 Flex Hybrid 3.2 2022 47.4%Mate X2 P50 Pocket P50 Pocket 2021 12 22Q1-Q3 2022 11 Pocket S 22Q4 33 华为 19/23 34 CPU Mate X 2019.02 16999 8.0 161.3x78.5mm 161.3x46.2mm 11mm 5.4mm 300g 980+Balong 5000 4500mAh Mate Xs 2020.02 16999 8.0 161.3x78.5mm 161.3x146.2mm 11mm 5.4mm 300g 990 5G 4500mAh Mate X2 2021.02 17999 8.0 161.8x74.6mm 161.8x145.8mm 8.2mm 4.4mm 295g 9000 4500mAh P50 Pocket 2021.12 9988 6.9 87.3x75.5mm 170.0 x75.5mm 15.2mm 7.2mm 190g 888 4000mAh Mate Xs2 2022.04 9999 7.8 156.5x75.5mm 156.5x139.3mm 11.1mm 5.4mm 255g 888 4G 4600mAh Pocket S 2022.1 1 5988 6.9 87.3x75.5mm 170 x75.5mm 15.2mm 7.2mm 190g 778G 4G 4000mAh Mate X Mate Xs 2021 Mate X2 2022 Mate Xs2 255g Pocket S 40 UI UI APP 35 UI 6 2023 3 Mate X3 Mate X3 XMAGE 4nm 8+Gen1 Mate X3 Mate X2 3.3 OPPO OPPO 2021 12 OPPO Find N 7699 OPPO Find N UTG 20/23 OPPO Find N 2022 OPPO 13.8%OPPO Find N2 OPPO 2022 12 OPPO Find N2 OPPO Find N2 Flip OPPO Find N2 2022 W52 2022.12.26-2023.1.1 1 OPPO Find N2 233g 2 OPPO Find N2 iPhone 14 Pro Max 7g OPPO Find N2 8+NPU MariSilicon X 7999 2 OPPO Find N2 Flip Find N2 CPU 9000+3.26 5999 36 OPPO OPPO 37 OPPO CPU OPPO Find N 2021.12 7699 7.1 132.6x73.0mm 132.6x140.2mm 15.9mm 8.0mm 275g 888 4500mAh OPPO Find N2 2022.12 7999 7.1 132.2x72.6mm 132.2x140.5mm 14.6mm 7.4mm 233g 8+4520mAh OPPO Find N2 Flip 2022.12 5999 6.8 85.5x75.2mm 166.2x75.2mm 16.0mm 7.5mm 191g 9000+4300mAh OPPO 3.4 MIX Fold“”317g 332g 2022 6.4%2022 8 MIX Fold2“”MIX Fold2 21 9 MIX Fold2 262g 11.2mm 35%MIX Fold2 8+Gen1 CPU Eco2 OLED 21/23 38 小米 39 CPU MIX Fold 2021.4 9999 8.1 173.3x69.8mm 173.3x133.4mm 17.2mm 7.6mm 317g 888 5020mAh MIX Fold2 2022.8 8999 8.0 161.6x73.9mm 161.6x144.7mm 11.2mm 5.4mm 262g 8+Gen1 4500mAh 四、2022 2023 52%2270 1 2 BOM A 3 UTG CPI UTG UTG UTG 40 EPS PE 2023/3/8 2023/3/8 2021A 2022 2023 2024 2021A 2022 2023 2024 精研科技 300709.SZ 23.23 43.25 1.19 0.65 1.78 2.23 19.5 35.7 13.1 10.4 未评级 长盈精密 300115.SZ 12.00 144.12-0.50 0.04 0.57 0.95-24.0 300.0 21.1 12.6 未评级 22/23 京东方 A 000725.SZ 4.12 1567.42 0.67 0.14 0.25 0.39 6.1 29.4 16.5 10.6 未评级 凯盛科技 600552.SH 13.47 127.24 0.21 0.15 0.27 0.41 64.1 89.8 49.9 32.9 未评级 长信科技 300088.SZ 6.64 163.01 0.37 0.34 0.42 0.55 17.9 19.5 15.8 12.1 未评级 Wind Wind 五、1 2 3 4 平 安 证 券 研 究 所投资 评级：股票投资评级:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%行业投资评级:6 5%6 5%6 5%公司声明及风险提示：免责条款：“”2022 平安证券研究所 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 021 33830395 9 16 100033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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