20230317_东海证券_化工行业深度报告：催化剂化工之魂助力产业绿色高效发展_49页.pdf

HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Reportdate 2023 03 17 table_invest Table_NewTitle Table_Authors S0630517120001 S0630522020001 S0630521110001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.2.table_main 2021 373 5%1 HPPO 2 SCR SCR NOx SCR SCR CSF(DPF)-,2026 70%CR5 9%100%POE COP/CPP 0-1 Pt Pd 2021 7.0 401 80%PEM 30-80 10-15 2-10/2025 358+1 2 3-24%-17%-10%-2%5%12%19%22-03 22-06 22-09 22-12:(0722)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/48 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 2.13 2.1.13 2.2.15 2.3.22 2.4.27 3.29 3.1.29 3.2.31 3.3.37 4.38 4.1.38 4.2.41 4.3.46 5.47 6.47 XVEVvMnQsRmNrPoNmRtMrQ6M9R7NtRrRoMnOiNrRnOfQnPqQ7NrRwOxNqNqQMYrMqN HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/48 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.8 6 2021.8 7 2021.8 8 2021.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.10 13.14 14.14 15.14 16.14 17.15 18.15 19 2020 NOx.15 20 2020.15 21 2020.16 22 2020 NOx.16 23.16 24.18 25.18 26.19 27.21 28.21 29/.23 30.24 31 PO/.24 32 PA6.25 33.25 34 PA6.26 35.26 36/.26 37.26 38.29 39.29 40 PE PP.30 41.30 42.31 43.31 44.32 45.32 46.32 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/48 47 2021 POE.34 48 POE.34 49.34 50 N GW.34 51 POE.35 52 POE.35 53 COC/COP.36 54.38 55 PGM.39 56 2021.40 57 2021.40 58 koz.41 59 2020-2050E.42 60 1 MW PEM.43 61.43 62.44 63.44 64.44 1.7 2.10 3.11 4.12 5.13 6.17 7.17 8.19 9 SCR.19 10 SCR.20 11.20 12 SCR.20 13.21 14.22 15.24 16-.29 17.33 18.33 19.35 20 POE.35 22 COC/COP.37 23.39 24.40 25.41 26.47 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/48 1.1.1.Berzelius 1836 HCl Cl2 vant Hoff 1 The History of Catalysis From the Beginning to Nobel Prizes Jaime Wisniak(IUPAC)HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/48 2:1,2 3 10 5 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/48 3 4 4%8%1 典型煤制 烯烃项 目产品 成本 构成 原料煤费用 燃料煤费 用 催化剂及 化学品 消耗 其他费用 设备折旧 与财务 费用 22%10%8%11%49 典型外购 甲醇制 烯烃项 目成 本构成 原料甲醇 电力及蒸 汽 催化剂及 化学品 消耗 其他费用 设备折旧 与财务 费用 74%9%4%4%9%,1.2.1.2.1.Allied market research 2021 373 5%2021 73%2021 38.4%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/48 5 6 2021 Allied market research Grande view research 57%2021 7 2021 8 2021 Precedence Research Precedence Research 34.7%2021 2021 30.8%2021 6%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/48 1.2.2.70%15%9 2010 21.6 65%2019 50.2 2020 2020 2019 51 2020 42 2%10 11 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/48 2 2010 32 2020 15%2016 2018 23 2017 162 联 2016 454 2021 30.9 23%17.8 27%12 1.2.3.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/48 3 JohnsonMatthey APIs 1817 APIs 2021 157()39 5.04 16%BASF 2021 786 192 16%Evonik 11 2021 150 23.8 霍 尼韦尔UOP UOP:C4 C5 C6 2021 23.48 6000 70 300()（Albemarle）2004-;FCC FCC HPC 20 2022 2.36-Grace Davison 10 22 FCC 40%（Heraeus）2021 359.291&2021 40 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/48 4 2021 50.46 6.3%3.77 11%2021 15.89 1.63 16%HECK 2021 11.85 6575 2021 17.11.99%1.2.2018 0.71 2021 1.32 CAGR 23%2018 55%219.7%9850/2021 15.52 46%4.2 2021 8.77 46%2021 5.8 25%2021 75.96 4.33 5.7%2021 9.3 13.35%V/VI 2021 8.66 23.13%1.2.4.European Cluster on Catalysis 2016 10-20 1 2 3 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/48 5 21 2.2.1.A X Y ZSM-5 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/48 13 14-IHS 2021 170/15 16 IHS IHS Markit 2021 12.4 10.2 UOP 23.38%CECA 13.41%Zeochem 7.11%14.74%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/48 17 18 IHS IHS 2.2.2.2.1.2021 2020 CO HC NOx PM 1593 CO HC NOx PM 90%NOx 80%PM 99%CO 80%HC 70%19 2020 NOx 20 2020 2021 2021 2021 2020 SO2 HC NOx PM 16.3 42.5 478.2 23.7 NOx NOx NOx 31.3%34.9%29.9%2.6%1.3%75.4%4.4%4.5%11.0%0.6%4.0%0.1%80.90%78%4.80%0 8%11.40%88.80%100%1.10%11%6.40%0 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%CO HC NOx PM HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/48 21 2020 22 2020 NOx 2021 2021 1970 1991 2014 2000 2001 2005 2008 2015 2017 2019 7 1 2020 7 1 2021 7 1 23 NOx 16.3 42.5 478.2 23.7 0100200300400500600SO HC NOx PM31.3%34.9%29.9%2.6%1.3%工程机械 农业机械 船舶 铁路内燃机车 飞机 GD01 2022 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/48 6/CO THC NMHC CH NOX NH PM mg/wh mg/kwh mg/kwh mg/kwh mg/kwh ppm mg/kwh WHSC(CI)1500 130 400 10 10 WHTC(CI)4000 160 460 10 10 WHTC(PI)4000 160 500 460 10 10 WNTE 2000 220 600 16 ESC(I 1500 130 400 10 10 ETC(CI)4000 160 400 10 10 ETC(PI)4000 160 500 400 10 10 Official Journal of the European Union a 2.5 CO 30%NOx 66%6b CO HC NOx PM 50%50%41%33%NOx PM 56%33%N2O NOx PM 77%67%PN 7(mg/km)6a 6b CO 1000 700 500 HC 100 100 50 NOx)60 汽/80 柴 60 35 NMHC 68 68 35 N2O 20 20(PM)4.5 4.5 3 PN,/Km)6.0*1011 6.0*1011 6.0*1011,2020 12 28 HJ1014 2020 GB20891 2014 2022 12 1 560kW 560kW PN DPF 2.2.2.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/48 CO HC NOx PM CO2 H2O N2 24 SCR cDPF 25 TWC DOC SCR ASC cDPF cGPF GOC HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/48 8 装置 TWC GPF DOC SCR DPF POC ASC CO、HC、NOX PM CO、HC、SOF NOX PM NOX、PM NH3 SCR NOx SCR NH-SCR NH NOx N H O 26 SCR SCR 9 SCR TiO2 300 260-400 345-590 SCR HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/48 10 SCR SCR N N NH3-SCR SCR NOx SCR SCR CSF(DPF)SCR ASC 11 TWC TWC+cGPF TWC EGR+DOC+DPF EGR+DOC+DPF+SCR+ASC SCR EGR+DOC+DPF+SCR+ASC GOC TWC TWC+ASC NOx DOC+DPF+SCR PN DPF SCR NOx NOx 650 12 SCR SCR 500/15ppm 800 200 90%/15ppm 800 200 90%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/48 2.2.3.13L 3L 2.5 1L SCR 150g 4.875kg 1.125kg 14 2021 139.1 221 2022 100 200 7100 2250 4875 20/14 13 L/L g/L g 2.5 7.5 150 1125 200 2250 13 2.5 32.5 150 4875 100 4875 7125 wind 2021 1.32 27 28 MarkLines MarkLines 2500 NOx 31.3%34.9%29.9%NOx SCR HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/48 2019 117.8 NOx/23.57/12.36 2020 6t 20.7%79.3%5t 67.37%80%SCR 4.875kg 2019 2136 2025 3-5%2500 2.3.252 80%Si Al Al Ti 14/FCC Y ZSM-5 ZSM-5 PX ZSM-5 ZSM-5 ZSM-5/ZSM-11 MFI MCM-22 MWW H2O2 HPPO TS-1 Beckmann TS-1 MFI Silicalite-1 C3 C4 ZSM-5 ZSM-5 TS-1 Ti-MWW ZSM-5 MTO DMTO SAPO-34 SAPO-34 OCC ZSM-5 C2C4 MTA ZSM-5,HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/48 2.3.1.2021 BP 2021 10191/50.96/2097/1988 2022-2023 EIA8 2023 290/29/BP 2022 2022 1 9.832/3910/2022 10.11/2017-2020 3.6%2020 47 2025 58 FCC 40%FCC 1962 Mobil Y FCC FCC Y FCC Y Y ZSM-5 FCC 3%6%1%2%Y ZSM-5 FCC ZSM-5 Y Y FCC ZSM-5 10%9%0%5%10%15%20%0200004000060000800001000001200001400002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/48 2.3.2.HPPO(PO)2022 PO 490.2/1000/30 31 PO/HPPO PO/SM PO/TBA CHP HPPO 1 1.41.5 3.5 40 40%45%2.3 2.2-2.5 HPPO 15 PO/TBA PO/SM CHP HPPO 1 t/2.77 2.69 1.86 2.2 0.801.20 100%tPO-1 0.77 0.798 0.7800.830 0.7800.830 0.8200.900 2.77 2.733.20 0.72 0.85 1.301.85 0.01 0.05 1.02.1 tPO-1 2.22.4 2.363.00 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/48 0.050.15 2 tPO-1 4 13 16 20 2.56.0 tPO-1 385 365442 300 209 2004210 500 855 350 91 250320,TS-1 1983 EniChem MFI TS-1 H O HPPO HPPO Dow BASF HPPO 2008 30/HPPO Degussa Uhde HPPO 2008 SKC 10/HPPO HPPO BASF Enichem HPPO 3 595 HPPO 400 67%2.3.3.-6-6 2021 539 16.2%395 11.9%32 PA6 33 1 2 HSO NO HPO HPO NO3-/HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/48 HPO HPO 18%HPO 19 HPO 72%99%PA6 2022 PA6 400 5 8.7%34 PA6 35 2.3.4.20 70 Mobil ZSM-5 MTG 20 80 MTO 20 90 SAPO-34 MTO 2021 1739/80%1 1Kg 1.4 2025 2000/1.6 36/37 0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/48 60%10%CO 30%40%NOx 2020 987 274 2021 1.4 10%1400 400 1200 2000 DMTE DMTE 2.4.2.4.1.2008 25%2017 10 5.58 2021 1915 2022 11 2017 HPPO 9800+2600 HPPO MTO MTP 23%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28/48 2.4.2.4.5 2022 4 330 50000Nm3/h 20 2100 8100 4000 1 1.2 1.2 2.4.3.2004 UOP 17/18/19 54.12%/38.14%/36.71%A 2020 26.96%2021 38.98%2.4.4.1995 2011 12“”300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 29/48 3.3.1.PE PP 1.65 38 39-,-45%-95%20 50 Karl Ziegler Giulio Natta Ziegler-Natta Z-N 16-Generation kg/(g cat)1st 1953-1970-TiCl3AlCl3/AlEt2Cl 0.8-1.2 2nd 1953-1970-44625 3rd 1978-1980 TiCl4/MgCl2+AlEt3/44696 4th 1980-TiCl4/MgCl2+AlEt3/20-60 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 30/48 2022 2540 2965 0.003%2022 1652 2026 4456 5186 2892 70%40 PE PP 41 TiCl4 MgCl2 TiCl4 1 1020 30005000 TiCl4/TiCl4 HCl TiCl4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 31/48 26%CR5+9%+42 3.2.mPE mPP 43 1933 ICI 1945 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32/48 UHMWPE EVA EVOH 1991 Dow Exxon CGC Exxpol POE 2005 Dow OBC ExxonMobil Dow BASF LyondellBasell Total 44 41%POE POP 43%22%17%10%45 46-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 33/48 17-90 CGC)MAO MAO Albemarle Lanxess Chemtura AkzoNobel 18 1 POE POE-2021 POE HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 34/48 2021 POE 40%26%2021 POE 64 47 2021 POE 48 POE N POE POE EVA 2021 201 2020 7.7 37.4%2023 POE PID N N 2022 N PVInfolink N 21 19GW 22 91GW 393%49 50 N GW CPIA PVInfolink POE-POE LG POE LG POE POE HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 35/48 51 POE 52 POE POE 10 19 Dow Chemical CGC Exxon CGC Mitsui LG/20 POE CN114763392A 2021/1/15 2022/7/19 CN114316101A 2022/1/17 2022/4/12 CN109894151B 2017/12/7 2022/2/18 CN109851701B 2018/12/28 2021/12/14 CN114736246A 2022/4/11 2022/7/12 CN112778376A 2021/1/21 2021/5/11 CN112876519A 2021/1/15 2021/6/1 CN113501850A 2021/7/6 2021/10/15 CN112920227A-2021/2/18 2021/6/8 CN113354690A 2021/7/9 2021/9/7 CN114315916A 2021/12/30 2022/4/12 CN114797989A 2022/5/30 2022/7/29 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 36/48 CN114192192A 2021/12/28 2022/3/18 CN114591458A 2022/1/13 2022/6/7 CN113307899A-2021/4/28 2021/8/27 CN113816981A IVB 2021/9/15 2021/12/21 CN112239474A-2020/9/22 2021/1/19 CN113816989A-2021/9/15 2021/12/21 CN106674385A 2015/11/11 2017/5/17 CN106674389B 2015/11/11 2017/5/17 2 COP/POP 0-1 COC/COP 53 COC/COP CNCIC COP/COC COP/COC COP/COC 2025 COC/COP 2.9 2021-2025 8.9%COC/COP 2021 COC/COP 2.1 8.3/COC/COP COC/COP COC/COP COC/COP COC/COP COC/COP HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 37/48 21 COC/COP 2021 Zeonex/ZeonorCOP ROMP 4.2 50.10%TopasCOC mCOC 3 36.10%ARTONCOC ROMP 0.5 6.00%ApelCOC mCOC 0.3 4.10%0.3 3.60%8.3 100.00%CNCIC 22 COC/COP CN114409877A 2020/10/28 2022/4/29 CN113354776A 2021/7/3 2021/9/7 CN113321768A 2021/7/13 2021/8/31 CN111072460A 2019/12/25 2020/4/28 CN111039747A 2019/12/25 2020/4/21 3.3.3.3.1.-POE 2022 12 40/POE 30/-20 POE 3.3.2.2/HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 38/48 5000/COC/COP 2014 2 3 10.5 2023 1 4.41 5.39 2 1 12 4.4.1.(precious metal catalyst)Pt Pd Ru Rh Ir 54 2022 2021/416.9 47.5 PGM 2020 PGM 20%2021 38%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 39/48 55 PGM JM PGM market report 23 TWC DOC USGS 2021 7.0 6.3 90.0%2018 401 0.6%Pt Pd 0.35g/t 8.0 g/t HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 40/48 56 2021 57 2021 USGS 2022 21 35%27%2022 2021 3.8 26 123.1 101.3 21.7 6.7%80.5%24 6 93 2 48 2022 6.7 47.7 14%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 41/48 58 koz Metals Focus 4.2.2022 3 2021-2035 2060 2025 5 10-20/25(2020-2025)2026-2035 2036-2050%4%5.9%10%3000 4000 6000 10000 50000 120000 200 2000 12000 5 130 500/1000 5000 20000 6 150 550 2019 1 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 42/48 CCS 2050 70%59 2020-2050E AWE PEM SOEC AE PEM 1 A/cm2 74%87%99.99%34 MPa PEM Pt Pd PEM Ir Ru RuO2 IrO2 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 43/48 60 1 MW PEM PEM 2 30%40%80%-90%61 DC/DC HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 44/48 60%36%62 63 Frost&Sullivan/64 2022 6.7 36.6%12682 3+2 2025 5 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 45/48 65 30-80 2-10/Clarity 16/Mirai 20/10-15 2021 6.2 2021-2025 CAGR 87%2025/2030 75/238 36%2021 2.32 20%2025 358 66 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 46/48 4.3.4.3.1.2017-2021 CAGR 23.9%CAGR 34.8%2022 287.84+1.25%3.25+12.17%99%99.5%4.3.2.2005 90%2022 H1 25.46%2022 19.83+15.83%6796.27+9.2%3.3 1000 2022 2000 4.3.3.2021 2022 18.82+18.43%2.21+36.02%2021 4 75 2 700 1300 2000 HNBR PDH PVC HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 47/48 5.90%+1 2 3 table_impcom 26 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600459 15.47 0.65 0.54 0.78 1.11 38.86 28.44 19.96 14.00 688267 33.46 1.13 0.90 1.56 2.17 33.08 37.17 21.45 15.39 603255 55.64 1.31 0.88 1.49 2.06 42.35 63.47 37.44 26.97 603722 44.27 1.15 1.40 1.64 3.73 38.76 31.65 27.03 11.87 830974 7.02 0.41 0.45-30.21 51.55-688269 84.48 1.74 1.69 2.35 3.10 71.79 49.98 35.85 27.20 688357 111.4 4.75 3.33 4.84 6.83 40.42 33.45 23.04 16.31 002643 17.36 0.67 0.92 1.16 1.44 35.10 18.83 14.98 12.05 Wind 2022/3/16 6.1 MAO 2 3 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 48/48 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333619 8610 59707105 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告