资源描述
|2023 03 22 3 3 22 ADP Fedwatch 25BP 37.6%50BP 62.4%2 10 100BP-2022 3 500BP-CPI 3 10 2007-2008 ETF 2023 S0680521030003 S0680121100007 1 2023-02-03 EPS P E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600988.SH 0.35 0.39 0.93 1.26 61.14 54.87 23.01 16.98 000975.SZ 0.46 0.41 0.61 0.78 30.85 34.61 23.26 18.19 01818.HK-0.01 0.13 0.19 0.33 528.47 71.61 49.36 28.57 Wind Wind 2022 2022-32%-16%0%16%32%2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 300 2023 03 22 P.2.3 1.1 2%.3 1.2.3.6 2.1.6 2.2.7.11 3.1.11 3.2.12.14 4.1.14 4.2.16 1.3 2 2022 3 450BP.4 3 4.75%.4 4 CPI.4 5 CPI.4 6 2%.5 7.5 8 2022 11 2023 2.6 9.6 10.7 11.7 12 1 31.1.8 13 2023 2 31.1.8 14.9 15.9 16.10 17 08.11 18 08.12 19 2020.12 20 2022 11 32.13 21 2022 12 ETF.13 22.15 23 130.16 24.17 ZXCXwPmRoNrQpRoNsPpQpObRbPaQsQqQsQsRfQoOnOiNsQtR7NrQmQMYmQsRMYqQtM 2023 03 22 P.3 1.1 2%2023 1 51.7 2%1 1.2 2020 2%2022 3 2023 3 8 450BP 2023 3 4.75%Bullard 5.375%2023 03 22 P.4 2 2022 3 450BP 3 4.75%iFinD iFinD 2022 8 CPI CPI 4 CPI 5 CPI Wind iFinD 2%2023 1 1-20 2.3%-2.7%2%00.511.522.533.544.552020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09%00.511.522.533.544.552020/03 2020/11 2021/07 2022/03 2022/11%01234567891020/05 20/09 21/01 21/05 21/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01%CPI CPI 05101520253035404522/01 22/03 22/05 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/01:CPI:%:CPI:%:CPI:%2023 03 22 P.5 6 2%iFinD 7 Wind 2022 11 50BP 25BP 1-2022 2 2.68 2.35-0.500.511.522.533.544.52020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01:1:2:5:10:20:05001000150020002500-2-10123407/03 09/03 11/03 13/03 15/03 17/03 19/03 21/03 23/03%COMEX/2023 03 22 P.6 8 2022 11 2023 2 iFinD 2.1 9 Wind 1,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,10000.511.522.533.544.552022/03 2022/05 2022/07 2022/09 2022/11 2023/01 iFinD:%iFinD:/(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.00.51.01.52.02.50.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%18/04 18/09 19/02 19/07 19/12 20/05 20/10 21/03 21/08 22/01 22/06 22/1110Y-2Y%/10Y 2Y 2023 03 22 P.7=-10 Wind 11 iFinD 2.2-2023 1 50.4 2 2 31.1 39.9%2022 H2 2023 2 3.6%01020304050602022/03 2022/06 2022/09 2022/12 2023/03 2023/06 2023/09 2023/12:12:12-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.5010001200140016001800200022002022/03 2022/04 2022/05 2022/06 2022/07 2022/08 2022/09 2022/10 2022/11 2022/12 2023/01 2023/02 iFinD():COMEX/iFinD:5%iFinD:7%iFinD:10%iFinD:20%iFinD:30%2023 03 22 P.8 12 2 31.1 Wind 2 2 2 2 56.5%2 24.5 38.3%13 2023 2 31.1 iFinD 51.731.101234567010203040506070809010021/06 21/09 21/12 22/03 22/06 22/09 22/12美 国新增 非农就 业人数（万人）失 业率（%，右轴）05010015020025030035040045050022/03 22/04 22/05 22/06 22/07 22/08 22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/01 23/02 iFinD:iFinD:2023 03 22 P.9 14 Wind 2023 2-15 iFinD-100-500501001502002022/01 2022/03 2022/05 2022/07 2022/09 2022/11 2023/01:-2-10123420/01 20/04 20/07 20/10 21/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 iFinD:1982-1984:%iFinD:1982-1984:%iFinD:1982-1984:%2023 03 22 P.10 16 iFinD-3-2-10123456720/01 20/04 20/07 20/10 21/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 iFinD:%iFinD:%iFinD:%iFinD:%iFinD:%2023 03 22 P.11 3.1 2023 3 400 20 17 08 270002800029000300003100032000330003400035000360003700000/03 02/01 03/11 05/09 07/07 09/05 11/03 13/01 14/11 16/09 18/07 20/05 22/03 iFinD:2023 03 22 P.12 18 08 3.2 2020 2022 Q3 400 2000 8 19 2020 12 32 2019 11 2002 2019 1,348 750000800000850000900000950000100000010500002021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 2021-11 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 iFinD:iFinD:-20002004006008002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023 03 22 P.13 20 2022 11 32 ETF 2022 12 ETF 2022 12 ETF 9 2022 4 ETF ETF 21 2022 12 ETF-105-55-545951451952452022/01 2022/02 2022/03 2022/04 2022/05 2022/06 2022/07 2022/08 2022/09 2022/10 2022/11 2022/12 2023 03 22 P.14 4.1 1 Sepon Wassa 400 Sepon 2 3000/2021 12/2023 30/3 4 2022 1 Sepon Wassa 10 2022-2024 72.3%37.1%22.7%2 2022-2024 8.2 1 2022-2024 34.07%43.06%47.56%2 2022-2024 48.78%2023 03 22 P.15 22 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 29.7 56.9 81.0 101.3 102.5 YOY%-16.8%72.3%37.1%22.7%1.1%21.0 37.5 46.1 53.1 53.6 8.7 19.4 34.9 48.2 48.9%29.29%34.07%43.06%47.56%47.71%8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 YOY%-72.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0%47.96%48.78%48.78%48.78%48.78%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.22%6.68%6.45%6.57%6.51%-2.31%-2.09%-2.20%-2.15%-2.17%0.7%1.1%0.9%1.0%1.0%8.76%9.56%9.16%9.36%9.26%Wind 2023 03 22 P.16 4.2 1 11.4t9.6g/t 62.8t2.9g/t 23.0t3.3g/t 70.7t3.0g/t 130 23 130 2 14.85 37.5;10 140 2020 80/3000/2022 9 2023-2024 12 310 3 2022 21.57%,1 2023 120/1 2025 3 140/2023-2025 44.0%20.4%8.2%2 3000 2022 9 2022 2023-2024 2023-2025 5.5%44.9%0%3 2022 2023 03 22 P.17 2023-2024 2023-2025 20.7%0%0%1 2023-2025 68.8%72.8%74.0%2 2023-2025 68.9%67.8%67.8%3 2023-2025 1.6%3.9%3.9%24 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 27.0 38.9 46.8 50.6 YOY%44.0%20.4%8.2%10.3 12.1 12.7 13.2 16.7 26.7 34.1 37.5 61.7%68.8%72.8%74.0%6.8 7.2 10.4 10.4 YOY 5.5%44.9%0.0%4.1 2.2 3.4 3.4 2.7 5.0 7.1 7.1 39.5%68.9%67.8%67.8%46.2 55.8 55.8 55.8 YOY 20.7%0.0%0.0%46.0 54.9 53.6 53.6 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 0.4%1.6%3.9%3.9%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.3%3.71%3.32%3.52%3.42%0.45%0.60%0.52%0.56%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.64%6.20%6.42%6.31%Wind 2023 03 22 P.18 2023 03 22 P.19“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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