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Table_MainInfo/2023 04 13 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo 2971.343584.054196.764809.485422.196034.902022/4 2022/7 2022/10 2023/1综合 海通综指 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(021)23219399 Email:S0850511040005:Tel:(021)23154125 Email:S0850517040002:Tel:(755)82900465 Email:S0850517050001:Tel:(021)23154181 Email:S0850520020001 9 Table_Summary 1 21 6870 16-21 CAGR 5.0%-0.6%+5.6%1.5%2 17-22 CAGR 3.2%17-19 CAGR 23.6%2020 CR2 67%22 CR5 23.9%/PE PE 1 2 23 20.69%25 324&REITs&REITs 2 1.“”.6 2.7 2.1.7 2.2.9 3.12 3.1.12 3.2/.14 4.15 4.1.15 4.2.16 4.3.18 5.&.19 5.1.19 5.2&.20 5.3.21 6.&Reits.23 6.1.23 6.2.24 6.3 REITs.26 6.4.27 7.28 XVEVwPtOtQmNrPoNrMtMoP6M8Q8OpNoOmOsReRpPmQiNoPnObRrQmPxNsPuNwMnMoN 3 1 2012-2M23.6 2.7 3.7 4 CAGR.7 5 21.7 6 21.8 7.8 8 21 CR5.9 9 21 CR5.9 10 2010.10 11.10 12%.10 13%.10 14%.10 15%.10 16 2021.10 17 2021.10 18/.11 19 2012-2022.12 20 2012-2022.12 21 2012-2022.13 22 2012-2022.13 23 2012-2022.13 24 2012-2022.13 25 2012-2022.14 26 2012-2022.14 27 2012-2022.14 28 2012-2022.14 29 Dufry%.16 30.16 4 31.16 32.17 33.17 34.18 35 PE.19 36 AH PE 2023E.19 37 AH.19 38 PE 2023E.20 39 PE.20 40.20 41.20 42 2016-2026E.21 43 2016-2026E.21 44 A&.23 45 A&.23 46.24 47 pct.24 48.24 49 pct.24 5 1 ROE.8 2.9 3.11 4.15 5 2023-03-29.15 6.18 7 2016-2026E.21 8.22 9 RNAV.24 10 A.25 11.25 12 REITs.27 13 REITs REITs.27 6 1.2022 11 21 GDP 50.41%2025 60%90 2022 2035 2020 6 30 2020 2022 23 1 5 2023 2023 2023 3 4 1 2012-2M23 Wind 7 2.2.1 21 6870 16-21 CAGR 5.0%-0.6%+5.6%21-26 CAGR 7.3%16-21 CAGR 1.5%/16-21 CAGR-7.7%/-1.2%/-0.5%/+0.4%2013 5065/5058 18-19 21+5.1%4436.11 21 31.4/vs 24.9/37.7/39.0/20-50 2016-21 5.86pct/3.78pct 31.8%/12.1%2019 44%/5298/5509/6538/4481/21 2402/2 6.6%6.6%6.5%-5.1%11.4%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0100020003000400050006000700080002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 3-4.4%-0.5%0.3%0.8%-8.0%5.1%9.9%7.2%6.2%5.6%3.1%6.1%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4 CAGR 16-21 CAGR 1.5%0.2%1.2%5.0%-0.6%5.6%-7.7%-4.2%-3.6%-1.2%2.5%-3.6%-0.5%-1.2%0.7%0.4%-0.6%1.0%5 21 24.9031.4037.7039.0070.5062.1001020304050607080/8 6 21 33232402529855094481653801000200030004000500060007000/7 8.3%9.5%10.4%10.8%11.2%12.1%17.9%18.6%19.3%20.1%20.4%21.0%72.7%70.5%68.7%67.3%67.3%64.4%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.9%1.0%2.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 21 12.3%vs 7.2%ROE 21 21.4%vs 8.9%21 CR5 63.5%21 74.4%/77.9%1 ROE%ROE%2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 600600.SH 6.89 8.38 10.79 9.66 10.67 13.72 600132.SH 22.00 17.21 19.62 46.30 183.98 66.47 000729.SZ 2.55 2.88 2.70 1.75 1.49 1.70 002461.SZ 13.32 15.17 15.23 5.80 6.38 6.58 0291.HK 3.88 6.45 13.35 6.67 9.87 18.77 9.73 10.02 12.34 14.04 42.48 21.45 SAM US Equity 8.80 11.05 0.71 14.96 20.06 1.48 ABI BB Equity 15.15 4.70 5.94 12.11 2.07 6.80 2503 JT Equity 4.20 5.40 3.76 6.58 8.58 6.69 HEIA NA Equity 9.90-0.45 16.11 13.41-1.52 19.15 2502 JT Equity 6.76 4.57 6.88 11.41 6.12 8.74 CARLB DC Equity 8.59 8.97 12.02 15.12 15.34 15.58 000080 KS Equity-2.08 3.84 3.26-4.10 8.07 6.57 2587 JT Equity 6.16 5.46 6.54 9.11 6.68 7.98 TAP US Equity Molson Coors 2.33-9.80 9.81 1.80-7.67 7.50 6.65 3.75 7.23 8.93 6.41 8.94 Wind Bloomberg 9 8 21 CR5 55%72%91%80%86%74%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CR5 9 21 CR5 54%64%92%74%78%74%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2 PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 600600.SH 45.83 41.32 34.22 29.30 600132.SH 48.29 44.57 34.87 29.06 000729.SZ 153.53 100.08 65.09 47.05 002461.SZ 30.09 30.75 25.25 22.44 0291.HK 34.15 40.10 31.01 25.20 62.38 51.36 38.09 30.61 SAM US Equity 122.63 39.42 40.15 28.88 ABI BB Equity 25.98 19.35 18.42 16.09 2503 JT Equity 25.75 12.46 14.16 11.97 HEIA NA Equity 17.13 19.83 17.97 15.93 2502 JT Equity 14.77 15.51 13.98 12.38 CARLB DC Equity 22.79 18.59 18.60 17.03 000080 KS Equity 29.24 14.30 11.71 10.55 2587 JT Equity 18.72 18.43 18.74 16.86 TAP US Equity Molson Coors 16.71 12.89 12.26 11.59 32.64 18.97 18.44 15.70 2023 3 20 Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 2.2 Wind 2017-22 CAGR 3.2%2017-19 CAGR 23.6%21 50231/45646/vs 42969/21 CR5 38.5%/CR5 47.3%/63.3%/56.6%/43.7%10 10 2010 0100020003000400050006000700002004006008001000120014001600 Wind 11 Statista Consumer Market Outlook 12%50556065707580859095 Wind 21-22 13%01020304050607080901002019 2020 2021 Wind 14%010203040506070 Wind 21-22 15%0102030405060702019 2020 2021 Wind 16 2021 39%47%63%44%57%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%CR5 21 17 2021 4296922020925645646502310100002000030000400005000060000中国 日本 韩国 美国 英国销售均价（美元/千升）11 2016-21 22.9%vs 11.5%21 90.1%vs 71.3%59.2%vs 27.3%23 P/E 29.67 VS 49.25 77%18/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%/77%Wind Bloomberg 3 PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 600519.SH 41.42 34.78 29.67 25.59 000858.SZ 30.87 26.78 23.13 20.09 000568.SZ 42.74 33.39 26.79 21.93 600809.SH 61.13 41.58 31.98 25.20 000799.SZ 45.83 34.94 27.26 21.45 600779.SH 29.26 27.73 23.37 19.55 600702.SH 46.38 37.34 29.25 22.32 002304.SZ 31.92 24.99 20.66 17.37 603369.SH 35.71 29.11 23.33 18.82 000596.SZ 61.08 46.39 36.41 29.41 603198.sh 36.50 28.88 23.29 19.19 603589.sh 23.11 23.20 19.93 17.25 40.50 32.42 26.26 21.51 DGE LN Equity 30.41 24.30 20.60 19.02 RI FP Equity 37.44 25.13 20.68 19.28 BF/B US Equity 45.64 36.36 35.58 30.28 RCO FP Equity 54.69 39.61 28.59 26.25 42.05 31.35 26.36 23.71 2023 3 20 Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 12 3.3.1 2022 4192+4.48%CAGR 6.03%2027 5393 5 CAGR 5.17%2022 748 5149 CAGR 2.35%2027 849 5844 5 CAGR 2.58%19 2012-2022-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01002003004005006007008002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Euromonitor 20 2012-2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0500100015002000250030003500400045002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Euromonitor&2022 18.17/55.44/30.52/13 2022 1.63/4034/2.78/56.34/2.91/21 2012-2022 1415161718192012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/Wind Euromonitor 22 2012-2022 Wind,Euromonitor 23 2012-2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/Euromonitor 24 2012-2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%050010001500200025003000350040004500/Euromonitor 2020 67%22 CR5 23.9%14 25 2012-2022 Wind Euromonitor 26 2012-2022 Wind,Euromonitor 27 2012-2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0500010000150002000025000300002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/Euromonitor 28 2012-2022-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02004006008001000120014002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/Euromonitor 3.2/1 2017-2021/12.91%/9.75%10.05%/25.16%7.74%/-1.02%wind 2021-2024/11.09%/13.94%5.87%/29.91%6.87%/8.15%2017-2021/Savencia/0.93%/12.77%0.49%/1.95%0.91%/-6.28%-0.44%/3.12%3.89%/14.21%2 wind 23 4 10/PE(2023E)16.49x/18.29x/22.21x 23 4 10/PE 2023E 22.61x/17.26x PE PE 15 4 PE 2021 2022 2023E 2024E NSRGY 21.03 23.83 22.61 20.32 DONOY 18.33 17.82 17.26 15.29 Fonterra 12.07 10.03 5.19 7.47 2269.T 15.73 15.54 4.99 16.19 SAVE.PA Savencia 10.12 6.65 7.20 6.52 600887 30.48 19.42 16.49 14.17 2319.HK 28.43 23.58 18.29 15.61 600597 33.79 41.13 22.21 19.43 2023 4 10 Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 4.5 2023-03-29()3776 2021 86%2022 544 50 278 4M23 98 22 38 81 100%22 38 157 100%1-11M22 15.1 Wind:2022 2022 2022 2023-03-29 4.1 8 2011-19 Dufry 16 29 Dufry%Bloomberg Wind 4.2 1 2020 3 10 2020 104%2023 3 8M21 3-4M22 8-9M22 9-10M21 5-6M22 10-11M22 23 12 25.72 20.69%2019 329%1-2M23 79.78 22 17%2030 26%30 Wind 31 10-100 2021 1.7 2022 422.3 17 32 33 Wind 23 1-2 665 2019 99%23 1 1-3 25 7.14 19 90.37%1 1-3 23 3.39 570.75 23 23 22%2 7.8 14 23 9 30 20.75 2024 19 2896 3000 1500 2400 25 1 25 1 5000 25 23 19 24-25+35%+27%25 2 23-25 29.5/31/31.3%2020-22+71%20%12%2023-25 8/10/8%2023-25E 762 1190 1648 2021-25 CAGR 35%18 6 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2129 2258 1564 2896 3909 4965 YOY-26%6%-31%85%35%27%21.1%29.7%27.0%29.5%31.0%31.3%448 671 422 854 1212 1554 YOY 19%50%-37%102%42%28%6129 7367 8263 8925 9817 10602 YOY 71%20%12%8%10%8%()275 495 349 762 1190 1648 YOY 104%80%-29%118%56%38%Wind 2 2020 2 2022 1 4 12 2022 2035 2023 2 9 2025 324 34 4.3 2021 2022 2 23 3 12 49%2023 PE 30 19 5.&5.1 2023 PE 40 x 32 x 27 x 3 28 2023 PE 59 x H 39 x 2019 19.3%15.7%10%36 AH PE 2023E Wind 20230328 wind 37 AH Wind 20230328 12/31 PE 2023 PE 40 x 21 x 24 x 19 x 35 PE Bloomberg Wind 20 20 2015/2016 PE 40 x 38 PE 2023E 20230328 39 PE Wind 20230328 12/31 PE 5.2&2019-2021 61 45 36 2020-21 26%19%2019-2021 1892 1620 1424 2020-21 14%12%6-12 40 199IT 41 199IT 2016-2021 CAGR 13.7%-2.0%2020-21 2021-26 CAGR 9.3%2.2%2021 34.4%2026 47.8%21 42 2016-2026E 43 2016-2026E 2016-21 CAGR 35.6%29.7%10.7%2021-26 CAGR 14.7%2035 7 2016-2026E 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 16-21 CAGR 21-26 CAGR 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1 8.4%4.1%1.4 1.5 2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3 3.3 3.5 12.3%7.0%1.2 1.6 2.4 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.1 7.1 8.3 9.6 10.9 35.6%14.7%2.4 3.3 4.2 6.5 7.7 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 29.7%8.9%30 33.3 38.9 42 44.9 49.8 54.2 59.2 64.5 70.2 76.3 10.7%8.9%35.6 40.4 48.3 55.5 60.5 67.5 73.2 80.4 88.2 96.6 105.3 13.7%9.3%ADR ADR 5.3 2019 GIC WeHotel GPP FSSC 2020 IT 2022 50%20%2022-23 wehotel 65%25%wehotel 100%100%2021 6 2023 3 31 5061 50%623 40%2 100%2021 6 22 8 100%2022 12 31 100%2 100%50%100%2021 7 31 6 5 750 100%6 10 8621.80 100%2025 12 31 6 40%(2021 12 31)3 51.82%3;6 40.64%3 6 50%3();6()4 11 517 50%3 50%6 6 5061 50%40%3 40%6 6 623 40%2021.6.23 2022.1.29 2022.1.29 2022.1.29 2023.3.31 2023.3.31 2023.3.31 23 6.&Reits 6.1 A&PE TTM&ST+17 13 53%41%2021 74%65%2023 3 28 A&PE TTM 28.9 64.4/PB LF 1.4/1.3 ST 2020 28%31%9 2023 3 28 200%100%44 A&Wind 20230328&ST 45 A&Wind 20230328&ST 24 46 Wind ST 47 pct Wind ST 48 Wind ST 49 pct Wind ST 9 RNAV RNAV 1 51 359 270 608%434%2 71 196 164 178%131%3 317 656 518 107%63%4 105 160 133 52%26%5 279 344 294 23%5%RANV 2022 2022 2021 20230328 Wind 6.2 25 2023 3 16 2015 2015-2017 21.2%24.1%25.2%4.6%6.8%10 A PE 2023E PB LF/2020)288 28.2 1.5 2.5 2022 12 23 珺 2021 10 28 2020 3 10 284 13.9 1.8 11.2 2020 10 24 28 27.4 1.1 1.9 2022 12 30 2022 12 30 2020 7 11 33 2477.2 1.1 1.9 2022 12 20 2022 12 20 2022 12 22 49-1.2 1.6 2022 12 12 2022 12 12 2019 7 27 56 11.7 1.7 1.2 2022 4 29 2022 4 29 2021 10 19 63-0.9 1.4 2022 1 28 2021 1 22 2021 11 30 24-1.4 2.6 2022 4 2020 12 30 18-3.8 5.0 2021 8 16 2013-2021 2021 12 18 2023/3/17/3Q2022 WIND Wind 11 2016-2018 2021 20%ROE 8%75 2021 30%2016-2018 2023 30%ROE 8.5%75 2023 40%2016-2018 2024 40%ROE 9%75 2024 50%2022 0.31 2018-2020 57%12800 2023 0.33 2018-2020 65%13000 2024 0.35 2018-2020 75%14000 2019 2021 75%0.20 75 2021 2019 2022 120%0.22 75 2022 2019 2023 180%0.25 75 2023 26 90%2021 chinagoods GMV 130 90%2022 chinagoods GMV 240 90%2023 chinagoods GMV 500 2019 2021 20%ROE 15%75 2019 2022 25%ROE 20%75 2019 2023 30%ROE 25%75 2023(EOE)31.0%2021 2023 300%75 2023 90%2024(EOE)31.5%2021 2024 500%75 2024 90%2025(EOE)31.7%2021 2025 600%75 2025 90%2017 2020 40%ROE 6.7%75 2020 95%2020 40%2017 2021 50%ROE 7.0%75 2021 95%2021 40%2017 2022 65%ROE 7.3%75 2021 95%2021 40%2018-2020 2021 50%7.40%75 2021 100%2021 2021 40%2018-2020 2021 2022 55%2021 2022 7.50%75 2022 100%2022 2022 40%2018-2020 2021-2023 61%2021-2023 7.60%75 2023 100%2023 2023 40%2019 2021 7.56%2021 4.7%2021 30%2019 2022 18.32%2022 4.9%2022 30%2019 2023 30.15%2023 5.2%2023 30%2020 2022 130%34%75 2022 6500 2020 2023 210%53%75 2023 8800 2020 2024 275%73%75;2024 10750 Wind 6.3 REITs 2023 3 24 REITs IRR 5%3 3.8%REITs 8 REITs 30%10%27 REITs 2 75%3 REITs REITs REITs REITs 30%12 REITs 2015 14.5 100%“-”14.5 9.425 5.075 2020“-”100%ABS/Reits 2021 7.8 REITs“-”7.8 A 3.35 6%B 2.1 6.5%1.6 7%7500 Reits 2022 21.06 100%11.5 REITs 21.06 18.95 89.98%2.11 10.02%Reits 13 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs CMBS REITs 6.4 2022 12 22 3 2020&2022 28 2023 1 18+2020&490.4 155.7 680 7.29 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,-SW,-W,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%30 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23219403(021)23219404(021)23219658(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219820(021)23219394(021)23154149(021)23219674(021)23154658(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23219984(021)23219883(021)23212230(021)23185655(021)23212231(021)23154170 021-23219745 洢(021)23219419(021)23185680(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23219445(021)23185675(021)23219433(021)23154168(021)23219068(021)23219645(021)23219819(021)23219773 珮(021)23154121 喆(021)23154142(021)23154116 021-23219635(021)23212041(021)23154124 021-23154484(021)23219658(021)23154132(021)23219733 021-23154147(021)23185661(021)23185663(021)23219812(021)23214131(021)23219420(021)23154122 02123154123(021)23219434(021)23219387(021)23219946(021)23219953 02163411361(021)23219404(021)23154143(021)23154505(021)23219635(0755)82780398(021)23219808(010)68067998(021)23154120(010)56760096 86 10 56760096(021)23219671(010)68067998(021)23219164(010)56760096(021)23154017 021-23219807 021-23185705(021)23154145(021)23154398(021)23154113(021)23154141(021)23154125(021)23219415(021)23219399 021-23154126(010)58067907(021)23219104(021)23154120(021)23212208(021)23219774(021)23154392(021)23154394 02123219406(021)23219383(021)23219747(021)23219436(021)23154399 31(021)23154652 翀(021)23154139 02123185608(021)23154401(021)23219963(010)58067998(021)23219760(021)23212208(021)23219692(021)23219171(021)23154113 02123219171(021)23154184(021)23219389(0755)82764281(021)23214397(021)23219431(021)23219392(021)23154174(021)23154174(021)23154137(021)23219392(0755)23617756(010)50949926 010-56760095(021)23154128(021)23219634(010)50949926 010-56760090(010)56760090(021)23154171(021)23219382(021)23219442(010)56760091(021)23219407(021)23154510(021)23219405(021)23212081(021)23154122(021)23154114 玥(021)23219814(021)23154119(021)23154659(021)23219391 劼 18515295560 18901961523 13718567611(010)58067998(021)23219402(021)23154172(021)23154171(021)23154019 晅 021-2321-4129(021)23154483(021)23154395(021)23219356(021)23154134(021)23219399(755)82900465(021)23219583 祎(021)23219768(021)23219244(021)23154382(021)23214390(021)23154146 32(0755)23607963(0755)82775962(0755)83253022(0755)83255933(0755)82775282(0755)23617160 0755-25597716(021)23219385(021)23219397(021)23219384(021)23219410(021)23154192 23214650 祎(021)23212268(021)23219373 祎(021)23219281(010)58067988 010-5806 7936(010)58067977(010)58067931 垚(010)58067851 689 9 021 23219000 021 23219392 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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