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日本M 型消费研究一：微利时代大生意()()()S0350521120001 S0350121090021 S 2023 04 11 2 1 97 5-20 04 2 0 1 1 0.5 1 9 4 5-1 9 7 4 21 GDP 2021 65 29.8%2 0 1 7 1%U N I Q L O U N IQ L O 2 0 2 2 2 8 3 3 7 9 9 1585 GU449 2022 U N I Q LO 2 3 0 1 1 7.88%47%19%34%S a i z e r i y a S a i z e r i ya 2023 4 7 40-60 2022 1547 1069 478 449 2022 S a i z e r i ya 1 4 4 2 14%2 0 2 2 56.60 220.68%S e r i a 2022 S e r i a 98%2022 1876 1833 43 1 4 0 4 C o l o r t h e D a ys 2 0 2 2 2 0 8 0.84 3.7%2 0 2 2 43.4%2020 2021 2022 147.26 1 4 3.01 1975 U N IQ LO S ai zeri ya Ser i a(6288.HK)S a i z e r i ya(7581.T)S e r i a(2782.T)(98 96.H K)1ZCXuNsPpMoPqOpMsPtMnMbR8Q7NoMrRoMsReRoOnRiNmNnP7NrRxPNZoNtQxNnOoR3 Wind 4 6 EPS Wind EPS PE4 10 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E6288.HK 17.6/9896.HK 33.650.52 1.07 1.37/27.66 21.57 7581.T Saizeriya 3165/2782.T Seria 2450/4UNIQLO SaizeriyaSeria 1945-1974 1990-2006 1975-1990 2006 4 M 5 65 1912-1941 5%5%National 1945-1974 5%2%5%6%Family 3C 1975-2004 2%1.3%1.4%6%20%Individual 2005-2034 1.3%1.4%20%30%Social 4 6 M 1.1 M 1992 2002 1.2 2004-2006 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 UNIQLO Saizeriya Seria3.1 UNIQLO 3.2 Saizeriya 3.3 Seria 7 M 81.1 M 1992 2002 M 1992 2002 600 1200 M 2003 78.9%1992 2002 M 91.1 M 1992 20021996-2011 21 1990-2004 1999 2002 0.4983 2000 1220 2039 34.7%1990 2004 0.44120.4720.49830.55360.3606 0.38140.3812 0.379100.10.20.30.40.50.61996 1999 2002 2011 M 21 10 1.2 2004-2006-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,000198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 GDP GDP GDP%2004-2006 1.2.3.iFinD M 29.8%14.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%19601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202021 65 29.8%14.2%65%65%111.2 2004-2006 20-49 50 20 90 90 1991 50%80%1989 12 38916 7607.88 20 90 2005 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0001980-01-041981-08-061983-03-151984-10-121986-06-041988-01-111989-08-141991-03-221992-10-221994-06-021995-12-291997-08-051999-03-122000-10-172002-05-282003-12-302005-08-092007-03-152008-10-212010-06-072012-01-162013-08-162015-03-302016-11-082018-06-132020-01-282021-09-071989 2003 225=38916 1989 12 29=7607.88 2003 4 28 1980-2005-50050100150200250300197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212001-2006 497,036 420,538 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720201997-2011 iFinD M 29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 121.3 1958 2004 20-24 1997-2004 20-24 131.320 世纪80-90 年代日 本阶层 分化导 致的消 费行为 分化 3 P”P”150 500,20 80-90 20 80-90 500-700 Culture Studies e-FALCON 141.4 Presso-Inn Inn M 15 162.1 1912-1941 Wind-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%19011904190719101913191619191922192519281931193419371940194319461949195219551958196119641967197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520181912-1941%172.1 1945-1974 1945 14.4 1990 6050 182.1 1975-2004 192.1 2005-2034 4 202.1 2005-2034)FOURIN 2050 240 FOURIN Culture Studies 2010 212.2 20 50 70 20 70 80 20 90 21 21 50 60 70 20 70 80 90 21 759 21 222.3 12556.33 11576.69 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 GDP GDP 2021 GDP 1985 iFinD 4.86%0.99%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%1961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021%1993-2017 4.86%0.99%21 23 UNIQLO Saizeriya Seria24-50%0%50%100%150%200%6288.HK 6288.HK-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Saizeriya(7581.T)股价涨跌幅7581.T-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%3000%3500%4000%4500%5000%Seria 2782.T 股价涨跌幅2782.T2000 Sai zeri ya Seri a Wind Capital IQ 253.1 UNIQ LO 1945-1974 1975-2004 2005-20341963 6 1984 UNIQLO 4 UNIQLO 100 109 7 7 1997 1999 年 1994 2013 UNIQLO 2010 UNIQLO 2014 3 2021 UNIQLO UNIQLO UNIQLO 799 28332022 UNIQLO GU UNIQLO UNIQLO FAST RETAILING(SINGAPORE)PTE.LTD FAST RETAILING FRANCE S.A.S.Fast Retailing USA,Inc.Theory LLC PLST CO.,LTD.C O M P T O I R D E SCOTONNIERS S.A.S PRINCESSE TAM.TAM S.A.S.G.U.CO.,LTD.FRL Korea Co.,Ltd.UNIQLO(THAILAND)COMPANYLIMITED PT.FAST RETAILING INDONESIA UNIQLO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD UNIQLO EUROPE LIMITED UNIQLO VIETNAM Co.,Ltd UNIQLO INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED UNIQLO CO.,LTD.UNIQLO iFinD UNIQLO 263.1 UNIQ LO 774 767 780 7991379146915021585421 436 439 44925742672 27212833050010001500200025003000FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022FY2019-2022 FY2022 2833(GU 41821142413233 13046148811362113259 134721239820072228432218623191270053120932630307923342446204977 52634885 50600500010000150002000025000300003500040000FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022FY2014-2022 2017 GU iFinD 13,829 16,818 17,865 18,619 21,301 22,905 20,088 21,330 23,011 5,988 21.6%6.2%4.2%14.4%7.5%-12.3%6.2%7.9%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0500010000150002000025000FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 2023Q1FY2021 2023Q1 5988(%)58%58%57%53%50%54%52%47%40%12%13%14%16%18%19%21%19%25%30%29%29%31%32%27%26%34%35%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 2023Q1FY2015 2023Q1 25%273.2 Sai zeri ya 1975-2004 2005-20341973 Saizeriya1987 50 SaizeriyaCorporation1998 1999 年 1992 2002012 11002004 1 2014 200 2019 1500 2 2015 Saizeriya 5 3 3 2000 132 Saizeriya Saizeriya 283.2 Sai zeri ya 1442.7514.04%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%020040060080010001200140016001800FY2022 14.04%1442.75(%)56.60 220.68%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0102030405060708090%803 842 882 929 982 1018 1026 1028 1057 1085 1093 1089 1089 106931 46 65 89 162 230 290 345 367 384 411 428 464 478 020040060080010001200140016001800FY2009-2022 2022 478 125133143150 149117 118112 1261427380838680455361717820406080100120140160FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 Saizeriya iFinD Seria 29 3.3 Seri a 1975-2004 2005-20341985 Seria1987 Sanyo Agencyco.,ltd 潟 2003 2004 年 1992 POS Seria(Shanghai)InternationalTradingCo.,Ltd.2017 2012 2018-2020 2012 Colorthe days 30 10 sen stores 10sen stores 1 sen=10 60 100 80 90 21 Daiso,Seria,Can Do,Watts 21 Seria Seria sharedresearch 2022 3 1,876 1,833 43 303.3 Seri a 90 21 3700 Seria POS 2013=100()()sharedresearch 313.3 Seri a 982.46 1,093.93 1,183.36 1,309.83 1,453.28 1,591.14 1,704.82 1,814.76 2,006.82 2,080.84 4.9%11.3%8.2%10.7%11.0%9.5%7.1%6.4%10.6%3.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%05001000150020002500FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022FY2013-2022 FY2022 2000%48.02 61.94 67.20 79.51 105.33 113.16 115.17 120.70 147.26 143.01 11.9%29.0%8.5%18.3%32.5%7.4%1.8%4.8%22.0%-2.9%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020406080100120140160FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY20222020 FY2021 22%414.45 462.14 501.29 555.02 623.87 686.71 737.46 785.51 869.89 902.62 6.1%11.5%8.5%10.7%12.4%10.1%7.4%6.5%10.7%3.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01002003004005006007008009001000FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022FY2022 900%42.2%42.2%42.4%42.4%42.9%43.2%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.4%4.9%5.7%5.7%6.1%7.2%7.1%6.8%6.7%7.3%6.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022FY2013-2022 FY2022 43.4%iFinD 323.3 Seri a sharedresearch 95.6%96.2%96.5%97.1%97.5%97.8%98.0%98.3%98.4%98.6%3.3%2.9%2.5%1.9%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.0%1.1%1.0%1.0%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.4%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2022 98.6%94.6%95.6%96.2%96.7%97.2%97.6%97.9%98.1%98.2%98.5%5.2%4.2%3.7%3.2%2.7%2.4%2.1%1.9%1.7%1.4%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2022 1.4%317421 5316467779111042116312951404698669643619592544501 47044742910151090117412651369145515431633174218330200400600800100012001400160018002000FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 Color the Days Color the Days 101510901174126513691455154316331742183389 83 7458 55 51 49 46 45 4311041173124813231424150615921679178718760200400600800100012001400160018002000FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022(Color the Days 33 34 1975 UNIQLO Saizeriya Seria(6288.HK)S aiz er iya(7581.T)S er i a(2782.T)(9896.HK)EPS PE 4 10 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E6288.HK 17.6/9896.HK 33.650.52 1.07 1.37/27.66 21.57 7581.T Saizeriya 3165/2782.T Seria 2450/Wind 4 6 EPS Wind 35 36 37,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%&WIND 38 R4/28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597&39 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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