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识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/39 Table_Page 深度分析|轨交设备 证券研究报告 Table_Title Table_Summary+2023 2023Q1 2019 23-25 8000 2023Q1 1136 17.6%/22 19%/45%2023 2023Q1 LKJ+A+H Table_Grade 2023-04-23 Table_PicQuote Table_Author SAC S0260517080007 SFC CE No.BOS186 021-38003678 SAC S0260520080002 021-38003680 SAC S0260522120004 021-38003792,Table_DocReport Table_Contacts 021-38003807-13%-6%1%8%15%22%04/22 06/22 08/22 10/22 12/22 02/23 300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 688187.SH CNY 47.60 2022/11/06 76.70 2.04 2.34 23.33 20.34 17.17 15.02 7.80 8.20 Wind YWFUuNtOtQpOsMtQtOsNqR7NaObRtRnNoMnOkPnNnReRpNsObRrRvNwMtRyRuOsRsN 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备.7.7.11.15.15.17.20.22.25.26.27.29.31.33 LKJ.34.37 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 1.7 2.7 3 2011 9 4.9 5 2023.9 6 GDP/.10 7 2023.11 8 2023.11 9.11 10.11 11.12 12.12 13.12 14 2017-2023.13 15.13 16 GDP.13 17.14 18.15 19.16 20 PE(TTM)Bands.16 21 PB Bands.17 22.18 23.18 24.18 25.18 26.19 27.19 28.20 29.21 30.21 31 LKJ.22 32.23 33.23 34.23 35.23 36.24 37.24 38.24 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 39.24 40.25 41.25 42.25 43.25 44 2022.26 45.26 46.26 47.27 48.27 49.27 50 2018-2022.28 51 2018-2022.28 52 2018-2022.28 53.29 54 2-3.29 55.29 56.30 57 2022.30 58.30 59 2018-2022.30 60.31 61.32 62.32 63.32 64.32 65.33 66.34 67.34 68.34 69.34 70 2018-2022.35 71 2018-2022.35 72 2018-2022.35 73 2018-2022.35 74 2008-2021.36 75 2014-2016.36 1.7 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备.8 3 2019.10 4.14 5.19 6 LKJ ATP.20 7 5.21 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2015-2019 8000 2020-2022 7400 2.62/4.22/5.07pct 2018-2019 6000-8000 4000 20-22 15/3/27pct 1 2 Wind Wind 2021 12/2022 1“”2025 5 16.5 2022 3 2025 2030 6 18.5 1 2025 2030 2022 1“”250/50 95%5 11.5 16.5 2021 12“”400 5G 5 11.5 16.5-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000()-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2022 3“”2030 5 11.5 16.5 6 12.5 18.5 wind“”2025&2030 2026-2030 2023-2025 3333 2026-2030 4000 2667 2022 43.3%2026-2030 2000 2022 7.4%2 2022 2025 2030 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 15.07 15.50 15.83 16.17 16.50 16.90 17.30 17.70 18.10 18.50 YOY 3.0%2.9%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.2%40139 42000 44667 47333 50000 52000 54000 56000 58000 60000 5.8%4.6%6.3%6.0%5.6%4.0%3.8%3.7%3.6%3.4%4400 4300 3333 4000 YOY-31.3%-2.3%2022-22%2022-7%2,202 1,861 2667 2000-13.6%-15.5%2022+43.3%2022+7.4%7489 7109 7500-8000 8000 YOY-4.2%-5.1%2022+5.5%12.5%2022+12.5%Wind 2014-2019 8000 2023-2025 2020-2022 7000 10 2023-2025 8000 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 3 2011 Wind 2023-2025 GDP Wind 39%22%10%6%2023-2025 8000/800/480/160 4 5 2023 Wind Wind 2019 14.6,2%,22%,12%,6%,10%,5%,2%,2%,39%3120176096080048016001000200030004000 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 4697 1.52/1.03/GDP 0.98 3 2019 GDP 14.34 21.43 5.08 3.86 15.90 14.14 3.29 1.26 0.83 4.47 960 983 38 36 448 14.60 23.30 2.70 3.90 20.50 4697 2350 21 364 1849/1.52 2.37 7.14 10.92 4.58/1.03 7.08 2.14 4.70 4.59 GDP/0.98 0.92 1.88 0.99 0.78 IMF eurostat/6/3.7/2/0.56/6/3.5/3.5/1 GDP 6 GDP/wind 012345678 GDP/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2023Q1/45%/5.9%2019Q1 92.5%/122.7%7 2023 8 2023 Wind Wind 2017 2017 23 1-3 1000 800 2017 200 2022 9 10 Wind Wind-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.002019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-03:-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2.002.503.003.504.004.505.002019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-03:02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 202302004006008001,0001,2001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 2023 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 11 12 Wind Wind 2024-2025 13 wind 2023 2021-2022 2023 19-22 CAGR 6.1%19-22 6.1%2023Q1 5.7%GDP 02004006008001,0001,2001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 202330%35%40%45%50%55%60%2017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-115560657075808590 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 14 2017-2023 15 Wind Wind GDP GDP 1999-2019/CAGR 6.6%/3.9%GDP 16 GDP wind 2023/2024-2025 2020 2023 2.502.702.903.103.303.503.703.904.104.304.502017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 202360062064066068070072074076078005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-03:-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%:GDP 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2-3 2023 4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 12.67 13.62 14.39 3.28 9.46 14.20 14.94 15.61 yoy 7.50%5.65%-77.18%188.35%50.0%5.24%4.48%25.78 26.99 27.38 29.93 29.93 31.13 32.76 34.23 yoy 7.11%4.68%1.44%1.00%9.00%4.00%5.24%4.48%21482 21733 21865 21870 22233 22533 22833 23133 yoy 1.66%1.35%1.33%1.31%/5.90 6.27 6.58 1.50 4.26 6.30 6.54 6.75/12.00 12.42 12.52 13.69 13.46 13.81 14.35 14.80 Wind+2023 1-3 1136 17.6%1-3 2017-2019 800-1000 17 Wind(40)(30)(20)(10)0102030405060708002004006008001,0001,2001,4002019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-03:识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 20%5%50%90%18 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 19 PE PB 2023 4 21 19.74 1.33 2015 2015 8238 PE PB 20 PE(TTM)Bands Wind,20%,13%,9%,9%,7%,5%,4%,33%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002013-04-262013-08-092013-11-222014-03-072014-06-202014-09-302015-01-162015-04-302015-08-142015-11-272016-03-182016-07-012016-10-212017-02-032017-05-192017-09-012017-12-222018-04-042018-07-202018-11-092019-03-012019-06-142019-09-272020-01-102020-04-302020-08-142020-11-272021-03-122021-06-252021-10-082022-01-212022-05-132022-08-262022-12-162023-04-07 13.84x17.19x 20.55x23.9x 27.26x 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 21 PB Bands Wind t-T t T+=+(t-T)=25 1.32 55 25 20232030 19982005 2006 19982005 1.32 2021 41.55/55 57 20232030 850 250/21 152 2400/36 05000100001500020000250003000035000400002013-04-262013-08-162013-12-062014-03-282014-07-182014-11-072015-02-272015-06-192015-10-092016-01-292016-05-272016-09-142017-01-132017-05-052017-08-252017-12-222018-04-132018-08-032018-11-302019-03-292019-07-192019-11-082020-03-062020-06-242020-10-162021-02-052021-05-282021-09-172022-01-072022-05-062022-08-262022-12-232023-04-21 1.04x1.42x 1.8x2.18x 2.56x 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 22 23 Wind CEIC Wind CEIC 5 180 5%10%20%1.5/2023 123 24 25 2019 Wind 6 40%8-10-100000100002000030000400005000060000700002006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-1000001000020000300004000050000600000501001502002502007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 5 6-8 30%-40%5-8 30%-40%5 3-5 5-7 5-7 6 20%-6 10 20 20 6-8 8-10 1 1 6 40%6 40%8-10 8-10 1 2.5 1 1.2 8 8 2-3 4 5-7 5-7 1.7/20%5%2023 47-50%213 2023 35 129%24-25 192 26 27 Wind Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020406080100120-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0102030405060702021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 Chinese Train Control System CTCS LKJ ATP LKJ 250km/h ATP 200km/h 300km/h 2022 LKJ 3.2 28 6 LKJ ATP LKJ LKJ2000/LKJ-15 250km/h 250km/h ATP CTCS-2 200km/h 300km/h CTCS-3 CTCS CTCS 5 CTCS-0 CTCS-1 CTCS-2 CTCS-3 CTCS-4 CTCS-0 CTCS-1 CTCS-2 CTCS-3 CTCS-3 CTCS-4 RBC 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 7 5 CTCS-0 160 LKJ CTCS-1 160 CTCS-2 200 CTCS-3 200 GSM-R-RBC CTCS-2 CTCS-4-RBC 2021 11.08 74.9%2021 2025 29 30 Wind 1 20 LKJ-15S LKJ2000 1993 LKJ LKJ 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%024681012 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 LKJ-15S LKJ-15S CTCS-2 LKJ-15S LKJ2000 CTC ATO 2 CBTC I-CBTC FAO I-CBTC FAO 31 LKJ 2023 10 2023 5.0%2.3%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 32 33 50%2020-2022 34 35 Wind Wind 2022 3060 19%2019 2692 2022 509 45%2019 481 121123 123 123116118117 1171211191101131141001051101151201250204060801001201401601802002023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030-20%0%20%40%60%80%05001000150020002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 36 37 GDP 6.8%GDP 5%38 39 Asian Data OECD-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%ofGDP 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 23Q1 115%198%165%195%40 41 Wind Wind 23Q1 42 43 Wind Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 26/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2022 771.10/831.80/557.29/69.20 35%/37%/25%/3%95%44 2022 Wind 2023 2200 2022 2239.39 1.24%116.53 13.10%2023 5.82-6.48 165%195%45 46 Wind Wind 13.5%2022 2791 989 15.0%2022 35%37%25%3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%2140216021802200222022402260228023002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%951001051101151202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 27/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2501 13.5%2023 47 48 2022 243.82 10.94%2.06pcts 2022 116 49 Wind 2015 2019 2022 402.2 4.81%05001000150020002500300035002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0200400600800100012002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 28/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 55.75/97.57/140.76/107.29-0.33%/+1.43%/+9.38%/+5.07%50 2018-2022 Wind 22%2022 23.69%1.5pcts 2022 42.00%2022 12.13%2022 36.34 10.96%51 2018-2022 52 2018-2022 Wind Wind 700 2022 730.09 1.01%239.15/126.85/25.76/338.33 2022 1474.12 20220501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8.0%8.2%8.4%8.6%8.8%9.0%9.2%9.4%9.6%303132333435363738392018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 29/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 3 53 54 2-3 2022 15.03 3.74%2022 25.76 17.2%55 Wind 01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 2022 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%02468101214162016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 30/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 2023 2022 13.40 0.81%9.91 73.96%2023 5.73 114.88%56 57 2022 Wind Wind 2022 2.37 41.07%17.69%5.25pcts 30%2022 36.24%3.75pcts 2022 39.97%6.81pcts 58 59 2018-2022 Wind Wind 2022 17.7 2022 24.91 11.66%2022 1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1,74%,11%,7%,5%,2%,1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 31/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 60 2020 1800 24,1,800 1.800 2022 2022 24.68 4.43%2.29 21.14%9.21 11.19 12.65 12.29 13.51 13.40 15.16 12.80 17.20 18.21 17.70 10.23 14.20 14.36 20.28 22.31 24.91 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 32/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 61 62 Wind Wind 2022 19.1 16.4%38.08%3.26pcts PB-TACS 30 4.3 131.2%1.3 11.2%63 64 Wind Wind 2022 26.42 25.37 5 3 2022 57.69 2022 6-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%00.511.522.533.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 33/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 1 CBTC FAO 2 65 2015 2018 2021 2022 35.31%100.08%2022 70.2%28.54%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 34/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 66 67 Wind Wind 2010 35%17%2021 2022 3.54pct 0.54pct 20-30%2022 180.34 25.56 19.26%26.66%68 69 Wind Wind LKJ LKJ LKJ 2022 10.67 0.25%3.46 10.15%2022 5.82 34.76%2.02 33.13%2.51 43.80%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02040608010012014016018020020062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 yoy-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 35/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 70 2018-2022 71 2018-2022 Wind Wind 60%2020 35%2022 60.57%0.41pct 67.74%/66.24%32.43%3.76pcts 72 2018-2022 73 2018-2022 Wind Wind LKJ LKJ LKJ2000 LKJ-15 250km/h 2022 LKJ 2.2 1500 LKJ 3.2 50%LKJ 8-10 LKJ2000 LKJ2000 0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LKJ-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%-6-4-202468102018 2019 2020 2021 2022-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022LKJ 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 36/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 74 2008-2021 75 2014-2016 Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05001000150020002500300035004000450020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 0100200300400500600700800 2014-2016 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 37/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 4 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 38/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 Table_ResearchTeam 2015 2018 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 2022 2022 Table_RatingIndustry 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%Table_RatingCompany 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%Table_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-Table_LegalDisclaimer/4 Table_ImportantNotices 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 39/39 Table_PageText 深度分 析|轨交 设备 1 2/5 Table_InterestDisclosure(1)12 Table_Copyright 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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