20230511_东方证券_机械设备行业2022&23Q1财报综述：Q1板块盈利环比改善景气持续复苏_51页.pdf

|2022 23Q1 22 24 2022 7.59%14.84%22.13%+0.10pct 0.54-0.03 Q3 1 5 2 5 3 3C 5 4 5 Q1 2023Q1 6.09%10.83%-16.69%57.87%23Q1 23.29%+0.85pct+0.67pct 1 3C 5 2 5 5 3 5 5 22 23Q1 PMI PMI 09/10/13/15/16/19/20/21 Q1 2.1.1 2022.1.2 2023Q1.1.3 2023Q1.2.1.2.1.1 2.1.2+2.1.3 2.2.2.2.1 2.2.2 23Q1“”“”.3.1.3.1.1 3.1.2 3.2.3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3.3.3.1 3.3.2 3.4.3.4.1 3.4.2.4.1 Q1.4.2.ZXFUyRnQmPrQtNpMmRtMnM8OcM6MpNoOpNpMjMrRsPlOnMpN8OrRwONZmQrMxNtRpR Q1 3 5.1.5.2.6.1 23Q1.6.2.6.3/.Q1 4 1.2.3 2023/04/28.4 2023/04/28.5 2022.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.19 12%.20.21.22.23.24 2022.1.1-2022.12.31.25 2023.1.1-2023.3.31.26.27.28.29.30.31.32.33.34.Q1 5 35.36.37 12%.38.39 2015-2019.40.41.42.43.44.45.46.47.48.49.50.51.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.61.62.Q1 6.75 2022 6.76 2021.3.4.5.7 2022.Q1 7 8.9.10.Q1 8 1.1 2022 2022 2022 7.59%14.84%22.13%+0.10pct 0.54-0.03 Wind 1 5 60.5%/55.5%/46.4%/38.7%/16.4%2 5 1060.4%/307.7%/168.4%/163.5%/116.3%3 3C 5 9.4pct/4.4pct/2.0pct/1.9pct/1.9pct 4 5 0.20/0.16/0.07/0.05/0.03 Q1 9 1.2 2023Q1 Q1 2023Q1 6.09%10.83%-16.69%57.87%23Q1 23.29%+0.85pct+0.67pct Q1 10 1 3C 5 50.3%/19.8%/18.7%/17.7%/17.5%89.0%/33.0%/9.5%/2.6%/0.9%2 5 111.5%/84.0%/48.1%/40.1%/27.7%5 467.1%/349.3%/347.7%/327.0%/186.7%3 5 12.6pct/7.4pct/5.0pct/4.1pct/3.1pct 5 5.1pct/3.9pct/2.3pct/2.0pct/1.9pct 1.3 2023Q1 Wind TTM 1 2 Wind Wind 2022 4 28 31.80 21.05 56.82 3 2023/04/28 4 2023/04/28 Wind Wind 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00:A:A:0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.002000-01-042001-01-042002-01-042003-01-042004-01-042005-01-042006-01-042007-01-042008-01-042009-01-042010-01-042011-01-042012-01-042013-01-042014-01-042015-01-042016-01-042017-01-042018-01-042019-01-042020-01-042021-01-042022-01-042023-01-04:-300-250-200-150-100-50 0 50 100 150 200 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1 11 2.1 12 2022-20%22Q4/-15%/+7%23Q1/-2%/-4%2022-43%22Q4/+30%/-22%23Q1/-8%/+11%2022 1 2 3 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 3 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1-20%-15%7%-2%-4%-43%30%-22%-8%11%Wind 2022 47%115%73%36%92%62%45%30%24%31%44%44%2021 Q1 12 5 2022 Wind 2.1.1 2022/23Q1 21.6%/24.3%2019-2022 22Q4 23Q1/2022/23Q1 6.0%/7.1%2020-2022 2022 23Q1 2022 2.7 23Q1 2.2 2022 2022 3.2 23Q1 6 7 Wind Wind 8 9 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0100200300400 2021 2022 2022 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 13 Wind Wind 22Q4/23Q1 15.8/18.6-12.2%/+4.9%-7.0%/+17.8%40.8/39.3+34.9%/+12.5%+5.2%/-3.8%2022 10 11 Wind Wind 2.1.2+2022 26.13 23.8%15.19 44.6%10.95 59.8%41.9%2022 23Q1 5.75 25.5%2.88 44.4%2.86 13.3%49.8%23Q1 23Q1 012342015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1024681012142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1051015202501020304050 Q1 14 12 13 14 2022 91.8 12.3%55.7%-9.9pct 2022 23M3 105.0/4.0%40.0%55.9%/-2.6/+15.7pct 23Q1 2022/23Q1 11.5%/10.8%7 10%10%/5.8%39.4%/19.2%2022 23M2-3 15 16-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002016/012016/042016/072016/102017/012017/042017/072017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/01-100%0%100%200%300%010000200003000040000500006000070000800002020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/03-30%0%30%60%90%120%150%180%020004000600080001000012000140002020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/03 Q1 15 22M2 8%11-26%4-11%6-13%17 18 Wind Wind 2023 3 2.07 53.9%12 58.3%6 22Q4 23Q1 22Q2 2023 0501001502001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-30-20-100102030402015/022015/072015/122016/062016/112017/052017/102018/042018/092019/032019/082020/022020/072020/122021/062021/112022/052022/10%-40-30-20-10010203040502015/022015/072015/122016/062016/112017/052017/102018/042018/092019/032019/082020/022020/072020/122021/062021/112022/052022/10%1-2-3-Q1 16 19 12%Wind 2.1.3 2022 2023 2023 2022(600031)(000425)(000157)(601100)(603338)(301039)2.2 2.2.1 28 2022 0%22Q4/+3%/+48%23Q1/+5%/-46%2022-15%22Q4/-23%/+46%23Q1/+15%/-54%2022 23Q1 2022 23Q1 23M3 2035 15 4 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1-75-50-2502550752018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/03 Q1 17 0%3%48%5%-46%-15%-23%46%15%-54%Wind 2022 2229.39 1.24%116.53 13.11%22Q1-3 22Q4/23Q1 873.75/323.79 7.51/5.65%56.56/6.15 46.44/180.11%2022 1 831.8-8.3%/275.5/62.3/291.7/202.3 2 557.3+2.2%3 771.1+7.4%4 69.2-20.2%2022 21.22%6.44%2021 2020-2022 2 2022 20 21 Q1 18 Wind Wind 22 23 Wind Wind 2022 13.05%-21.48%23Q1 19.77%11.60%24 2022.1.1-2022.12.31 Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-10-8-6-4-202468050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1%-500501001502000204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 19 25 2023.1.1-2023.3.31 Wind 2.2.2 23Q1 223Q1 2020 2020 40%2021 19%2022 36%3 2016 20/21/22 3%/4%/5%3%/50%/26%23Q1 23Q1 68%23Q1 7%23Q1(601766)(600528)(300011)(000925)(688015)26 Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-60-40-2002040608001020304050602010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1%Q1 20 27 28 Wind Wind 3.1 19 2022 0%22Q4/+8%/+10%23Q1/+7%/-5%2022-5%22Q4/+19%/-2%23Q1/-1%/+3%2022 5 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1*ST ST-30-20-1001020304003000600090002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/01-%-150-100-500501001502019/022019/052019/082019/112020/032020/062020/092020/122021/042021/072021/102022/022022/052022/082022/112023/03%Q1 21 Wind 3.1.1 2022/23Q1 27.31%/25.61%2022 23Q1 2022/23Q1 9.36%/11.33%2022 2021 2/2022 5.5 0.5 2022 29 30 Wind Wind 31 32 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10%2%4%6%8%10%12%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1012345672015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-0.200.20.40.60.812015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 22 3.1.2 2022 274 2011 3-4 33 34 35 Wind 2022 9 PMI 10-12 PMI 2023 1 PMI 2 3 4 22M8 12 22M10 22M11-23M3 36 37 12%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0100200300400-40-30-20-10010203040500246810122011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-032014-092015-042015-102016-062016-122017-082018-042018-102019-062019-122020-082021-042021-102022-062022-12-10001002003004000123452011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-09 Q1 23 Wind Wind 2011 10 10 T-11 T-9 T 2021 3C 38 Wind MIR 2020 2021 65%67%-100010020030005000100001500020000250003000035000400002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-01:%-30-20-100102030405060702018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01020406080100 Q1 24 10%39 2015-2019 40 MIR 2019 1 2 2021 8 3/2019.10 2019.11 2020.9 2021.3 1)2)2021.8 2021.12 50%55%60%65%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 25 2022H2 1 ETF 2022 9 18 ETF ETF ETF 2 2022 9 27 ISO23218-2 04 1 2022 9 22 2022 10 1 2022 12 31 100%2 2022 2022 9 28 2000 3.2%3&2022 10 16 4 11 21 7 2022 2022.9.18 ETF ETF ETF 9 23 9 26 2022.9.27 ISO23218-2 04 2022.9.22 2022 10 1 2022 12 31 100%2022.9.28 2000 3.2%2022.10.16 Q1 26 2022.11.21 1 2022 2 2(601882)(688697)(688305)(300161)(300083)(000837)(300607)(688558)(002520)3.2 4 2022-1%22Q4/+5%/-3%23Q1/-3%/-5%2022-17%22Q4/-65%/-45%23Q1/-12%/+194%2022/23Q1 8 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1-1%5%-3%-3%-5%-17%-65%-45%-12%194%Wind 3.2.1 2022/23Q1 32.35%/33.41%2022/23Q1 15.68%/15.46%2022/23Q1 2022/23Q1 Q1 27 5.8/5.6 2021 1.3/-0.4 3C 41 42 Wind Wind 43 44 Wind Wind 3.2.2 2022 3C 2022 40%2022/23Q1(300415)(01882)0%10%20%30%40%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10%5%10%15%20%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10123456782015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-101232015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 28 45 46 Wind Wind 3.3 67 2022 8%22Q4/13%/12%23Q1/11%/-21%2022 3%22Q4/-3%/-20%23Q1/10%/-7%2022 9 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 8%13%12%11%-21%3%-3%-20%10%-7%Wind 3.3.1 2022/23Q1 33.85%/33.35%9.42%/7.60%2022/23Q1 2022/23Q1 3.4/2.8 2021 1.0/-0.1 47 48 25.25%3C 11.26%9.52%7.08%8.26%6.11%2.95%1.13%2.27%0.88%0.28%25.01%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0246810 Q1 29 Wind Wind 49 50 Wind Wind 3.3.2 2022 44.3 21%2021 23Q1 10.4 1%21Q2 23Q1 51 52 30%33%36%39%42%45%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10%4%8%12%16%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1012342015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-0.200.20.40.60.811.22015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 30 Wind Wind 1 21 22 2/(603966)(002747)(300124)(603915)(688017)(002896)(603203)(300802)3.4 7 2022 14%22Q4/+4%/+39%23Q1/+5%/-16%2022 12%22Q4/+42%/-13%23Q1/+54%/+20%2022/23Q1 22Q4/23Q1 22Q3 10 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1 2022 22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 23Q1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0123452018/032018/062018/092018/122019/052019/082019/112020/042020/072020/102021/032021/062021/092021/122022/052022/082022/11-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010203040502018/022018/052018/082018/112019/032019/062019/092019/122020/042020/072020/102021/022021/052021/082021/112022/032022/062022/092022/12 Q1 31 14%4%39%5%-16%12%42%-13%54%20%Wind 3.4.1 2022/23Q1 21.63%/20.65%7.45%/7.19%4 2022 2022/23Q1 5.6/4.1 2021 2.9/-0.4 2022 53 54 Wind Wind 55 56 Wind Wind 3.4.2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q10%2%4%6%8%10%12%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1012345672015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-0.8-0.400.40.81.21.622.42.83.22015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 32 2022 12.7 4.7%22Q3 2022 1.6 160 9%10%2022 156.85 0.9%2022 1105.8 2.1%2022 48.6%2017 712.5 2021 1145.5 CAGR 12.6%2022 1356.9 57 58 1 22 2022/23Q1 2(600761)(603298)(603611)(603066)0%5%10%15%20%25%0400800120016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 0%5%10%15%20%25%02468101214 Q1 33 4.1 Q1 2022 2021 PMI 22 7 50%27 22 6 Q4 22 Q2 Wind Wind 61 62 wind wind Q1 20 21 22 21 2022/6.0%/13.8%/8.6%/6.2%23/2535455565752017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-01:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI55606570758085902017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-03 27%-30-20-1001020304050602017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-02%-30-20-10010203040502018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01%Q1 34 3 2023 3 24.0%2 18pct 3 21.7%1 2-1.7%+3.4%30%20%3 67 23Q1 68 23Q1-30-20-10010203040%(%)-20-100102030405060%(%)-20-10010203040%(%)-15-10-5051015202530%(%)Q1 35 4.2 22 23Q1 23Q1 69 2022 70 23Q1 wind wind PMI 22 22 PMI 2023 71 PMI%72 PMI%0501001502002503003504001 2 3-30-20-10010203040506070801%2%3%-20-100102030405060702022%-2002040608010023Q1%Q1 36 wind wind 40%70%2000 22 23 010203040506070809007/1 08/5 09/9 11/1 12/5 13/9 15/1 16/5 17/9 19/1 20/5 21/9%020004000600080001000012000140002000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 0102030405060702020/11/302020/12/312021/1/312021/2/282021/3/312021/4/302021/5/312021/6/302021/7/312021/8/312021/9/302021/10/312021/11/302021/12/312022/1/312022/2/282022/3/312022/4/302022/5/312022/6/302022/7/312022/8/312022/9/302022/10/312022/11/302022/12/312023/1/312023/2/282023/3/312023/4/30:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI 01020304050602019/2/282019/4/302019/6/302019/8/312019/10/312019/12/312020/2/292020/4/302020/6/302020/8/312020/10/312020/12/312021/2/282021/4/302021/6/302021/8/312021/10/312021/12/312022/2/282022/4/302022/6/302022/8/312022/10/312022/12/312023/2/28:PMI Q1 37 75 2022 6 76 2021(603583)(605288)(002444)5.1 2021 51949 6.19%4090.22 14.06%151.03 6.97%2021 6.84 20.58%187.31 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%Q1 38 2020 2014-2021 GDP 2014-2021 GDP GDP 2 A ROE 2020 2022 11%2022 02468101214160.01.02.03.04.05.06.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%024681012141618200500100015002000250030003500400045002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%024681012141618202014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%GDP%0102030405060702016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%Q1 39 ROE 8.97%ROE 2022-23Q1 ROE 23Q1 100 96.31%73.16%2021 114082 2.20 21 A 8%(300012)(300572)(300416)5.2 1-2 2C 024681012141618200501001502002503002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1%0123456789102022Q1 2022H1 2022Q3 2022 2023Q1ROE(%)ROE%Q1 40 1 2 3 2023(603337)(603901)(002833)(688092)6.1 23Q1 2022 12.13 12 47.3%2021 2.5 4.13 3.65 3.93 0.41 2023 Q1 4740 80.3%12.58(40)(20)0204060801002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1%SW%Q1 41 2022 3.93 28.1%2022 47.8%CPIA CPIA 2023 280-330GW 95-120GW 23 2022/2023Q1+34%/+39%2022/2023Q1+71%/+23%23Q1-200020040060080010002014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-11%051015202530352020-02 2020-07 2020-12 2021-05 2021-10 2022-03 2022-08:%0204060801001201402011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E GW GW 0501001502002503003504004502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E GW GW Q1 42%22 23Q1 23Q1 22 23Q1 23Q1 34.01%38.64%-8.95%70.80%23.16%-7.22%wind Wind Wind 1 2 3(300751)(300724)(603396)6.2 2022 721.9 97.5%40%2022 688.7 93.4%2023 Q1 162.90 158.54 22.50%26.16%23Q1 0510152025303540452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q105101520252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 Q1 43 2022/2023Q1+57.92%/+19.30%2022/2023Q1+46.25%/+59.69%9 2022/2023Q1 32.90%29.01%6.89%8.86%22 23Q1 23Q1 22 23Q1 23Q1 57.92%19.30%-16.75%46.25%59.69%10.51%wind Wind Wind-10001002003004005002016-022016-062016-102017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-02%-2000200400600800100012002017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-03:(%)0510152025303540452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1024681012141618202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 Q1 44(300450)(688499)(688006)(688559)(688518)6.3/2021 0501001502002500501001502002503003502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GWh%-10-5051015202530354002004006008001000120018Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1%Q1 45 1 2020 2020 3 31 22.74/20 10 848 169 23 4 1561 247 2022/9.19%/24.35%23Q1/22.31%/35.12%21%22 23Q1 23