20230526_海通证券_保险行业深度报告：保险股历史复盘_保险板块行情都是由哪些因素催化的？_33页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 05 26 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-10.12%2.89%15.91%28.93%41.94%54.96%2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 2023/2 Table_ReportInfo 4 2023.05.16 2023.05.01 3 2023.04.26 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:010-56760090 Email:Table_Summary 2007 A 2023 5 15 125%43%2014 2017 2022 20%1 2 3 NBV 4 1 2014-2015 120%ROE NBV 25bps 3.52%2 2017+2017 2017 3.9%NBV NBV margin 111%88%3 2019+2019 134 2019 NBV 2019 4 4 2020 2020 Q2 NBV 46%12022 2023 4 NBV NBV 2 1x PEV 0.56x PEV 2 1.6 2.7 2.1“”.7 2.2.8 2.3.10 2.4 NBV.11 2.5.11 2.6.11 3.12 3.1 2014-2015.13 3.1.1+.13 3.1.2.15 3.2 2017+.15 3.2.1+.15 3.2.2.18 3.3 2019.18 3.3.1+.18 3.3.2.20 3.4 2020.21 3.4.1+.21 3.4.2.23 4.24 4.1 2022.24 4.2.25 4.3.27 WUAZuNtOnOnMrPpMrMsNnM6MbP6MmOrRoMnOjMoOnQeRmOtN7NpOmRxNsRqQxNnQmO 3 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.8 5 2016-2020 NBV.8 6.9 7.9 8.9 9 FVTPL.10 10.10 11 2016.11 12.12 13 2014-2015.13 14 2013-2015.13 15 2013-2015.14 16 2013-2015.14 17 2014-2015.15 18 2017.16 19 2017%.16 20.17 21 2017.18 22 2019.19 23 2019.19 24 2019.19 25 2019.20 26.20 27 2019.21 28 2019 NBV.21 29 2020.22 30 2020.22 4 31 2020.23 32 2020 NBV Margin.23 33 2020.24 34 2020 NBV.24 35 2022.25 36 2022.25 37 2023.26 38.26 39 2023 NBV.27 40 2021 NBV.27 41 2021 NBV.27 42 2013.28 5 1.6 2.9 3.12 4 2017.17 5 2017.18 6 2023.26 7.29 6 1.43%2007 A 2023 5 15 125%300 82%43%2007 3.02%2.72%30bp 1 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%:%:10%wind-II 2014 2017 17 2023 5 15 1 9 5 50%2007 84%2009 107%2014 87%2017 84%2019 52%2 10 3 20%2014 35%2017 62%2022 22%1 300)2007 1 10 84.0%142.6%-58.6%2008-74.2%-65.9%-8.2%2009 107.0%96.7%10.3%2010-4.5%-12.5%8.0%2011-29.7%-25.0%-4.7%2012 27.2%7.6%19.7%2013-11.5%-7.6%-3.9%2014 86.8%51.7%35.2%2015-4.7%5.6%-10.3%2016-1.4%-11.3%9.9%2017 84.2%21.8%62.5%2018-21.7%-25.3%3.6%2019 51.5%36.1%15.5%2020 5.0%27.2%-22.2%2021-37.1%-5.2%-31.9%2022 0.5%-21.6%22.1%2023 5 15 18.7%3.3%15.4%wind 7 2007 1 2007 3 2007 12 2011 12+40.6%+210.4%+1.4%+84.9%2-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%wind 2.2.1=-1 2 3 3 8 4 NBV 2.2 NBV 2020 40.7%28.5%5 2016-2020 NBV 33.9%36.2%34.0%35.1%40.7%22.0%25.1%23.5%24.9%28.5%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016-2020 9 6 0%5%10%15%20%25%2019 2020 2021 2022 2019-2022 1 2 50BP 50BP 7 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2019 2020 2021 2022 2019-2022 50BP 50BP 9-15%10%2009 2014 2019 I9 AFS FVTPL 2 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 11%10%5%5%11%10%16%19%48%49%49%51%38%40%38%40%9%11%12%11%12%12%15%14%30%27%31%29%36%34%29%26%2%3%3%4%3%4%1%1%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2021-2022 8 1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300%wind 10 9 FVTPL 2.3 2021-2022 49-59%I17 I17 OCI OCI 2017 2016 10 11 11 2016 2.02.53.03.54.04.5100015002000250030003500400020162016201620162017201720172017201820182018201820192019201920192020202020202020202120212021202120222022202220222023:10%wind 2.4 NBV 2018 NBV 2.5 2013 2.5%3.5%2012 2.6 12 NBV 3.2014-2015 2017 2019 2020 12 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%:%:10%wind-II 3 2014-2015 2017 2019 2020 2014.10-2015.05 2017.04-2017.11 2019.01-2019.07 2020.03-2020.12 7 7 6 8 129%111%62%46%10%88%30%3%119%22%33%44%25bps 3.5%54bps 4%3.2%5bps 64bps 3.3%NBV NBV 2011 NBV NBV wind 13 3.1 2014-2015 3.1.1+2014 2015 2014 10 27 2015 5 26 300 119.5%129.1%9.6%13 2014-2015 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2014-01-022014-02-022014-03-022014-04-022014-05-022014-06-022014-07-022014-08-022014-09-022014-10-022014-11-022014-12-022015-01-022015-02-022015-03-022015-04-022015-05-022015-06-022015-07-022015-08-022015-09-022015-10-022015-11-022015-12-02 300%10%wind 1 ROE 2014-2015 6.3%7.6%2014 2013 300 2014 52%44%2015 7.6%7.8%2014-2015+34%+30%ROE 12%14%14 2013-2015 38%36%29%24%21%16%25%24%21%33%29%22%47%45%44%52%47%48%56%55%50%45%38%36%8%8%12%10%12%11%10%8%12%6%9%13%8%11%15%14%20%25%10%13%16%16%24%28%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Wind 2 NBV 2014-2015+18%+25%14 2013 8 1999 2.5%3.5%4.025%2014 13 10%30%2015 15 2013-2015 5%9%11%18%24%22%14%29%40%49%46%42%76%69%71%78%60%45%33%30%29%0%0%0%0%0%0%12%14%18%6%7%7%9%11%16%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Wind 2014 2014 12%2015 27.7%25.5%29.7%9.7%2013 2015 7 16 2013-2015 0%5%17%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%01000200030004000500060002013 2014 2015%Wind NBV EV 2014 NBV+15%NBV 20%2015 NBV+38%2011 2014 30%2015 15%3 2014 2014 11 22 2014 10 27 2015 5 26 3.78%3.52%25bps 15 3.1.2 2014 10 27 2015 5 26 129.1%161.0%160.0%132.3%92.0%2014+1 2014 3 25 2 2014 15 8 3+2000-2013 2.5%17 2014-2015 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%2014-10-27 2014-11-27 2014-12-27 2015-01-27 2015-02-27 2015-03-27 2015-04-27 wind 3.2 2017+3.2.1+2017 4 19 11 21 300 22.4%110.8%88.4%16 18 2017 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%300%10%wind 1 2017 MPA MLF 2017 3.0%5 3.5%10 3.65%2017 3.9%2016 3%2016 10 2017 2 2017 2015 2016 2017 4 19 11 21 300 22.4%2017 6.1%5.2%5.4%5.2%0.8pct 0.6pct 0.2pct 0.1pct 7.7%4.5%4.8%5.3%3.3pct 2.1pct 0.8pct 0.6pct 19 2017%-30-20-1001020304050()wind 2017.04.19-2017.11.21 17 3 2017 54%16 31.6%44.4%94.1%49.9%1 99.8%4 2017 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017 641.10 65%222.70 14%187.60 3%187.91 12%295.40 42%95.60 8%116.40 3%39.48-10%91.20 30%39.90-6%63.00 42%31.28-20%1027.70 54%358.20 9%367.00 8%258.67 3%2017 NBV EV 2017 418+17%2017 NBV 28%NBV margin NBV Margin 1.8pct 3.0pct 6.5pct 17.2pct EV 2017 EV 29%13%16%19%20 149.5111.165.332.8157.8138.687.434.80.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%020406080100120140160180 2016()2017()%)2016-2017 2016 2017 4.025%3.5%2.5%2016 2016 9 2017 1 2016 7-8%5%18 5 2017 2017 2017 2016 3.5%+4.025%+2.5%2.5%2.5%+4.025%+2.5%&2.5%2016 2017 3.2.2 2017 4 19 11 21 110.8%125.3%89.2%75.0%46.9%1 2017+24.8%+5.6%+33.8%+6.1%2 2017 NBV 33%22%40%15%21 2017-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%wind 3.3 2019 3.3.1+2019 1 2 7 1 300 32.5%62.1%29.5%19 22 2019 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%300%10%wind 1 2019 1 2 7 1 300 32.5%2019 1 4 1 GDP 6.4%2019 5.2%+0.9pct 6.3%+2.2pct 23 2019 4.0%3.7%4.5%4.8%4.3%5.5%5.8%4.8%4.7%5.2%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2018H1 2019H1 2018-2019 24 2019 4.0%3.5%4.8%4.2%4.1%5.5%8.3%5.9%5.5%6.3%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2018H1 2019H1 2018-2019 IFRS9 2 2019 4 36bps 2019 4 3 4 5 20 25 2019 2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019-01-02 2019-02-02 2019-03-02 2019-04-02 2019-05-02 2019-06-02%10%wind 3 NBV 134 2017-2018 2018 NBV+7.3%-17.6%+1.5%+1.2%2019 NBV 4.7%22.7%-8.4%-8.7%NBV NBV 2019 8.1pct 2.9pct-1.5pct 2.3pct 26 24.3%38.5%43.3%56.2%32.4%41.4%41.8%58.5%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%+2018H1 2019H1 2018-2019 3.3.2 2019 1 2 7 1 62.1%68.8%50.1%40.9%36.4%21 27 2019-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019-01-02 2019-02-02 2019-03-02 2019-04-02 2019-05-02 2019-06-02 2 22 2019 wind 2019 2019 1 22 2019 2 22 2019 6.2%2 25 3 6 28.8%2019 1 2019 128.9%68.1%96.1%81.8%+98%+50%+37%+50%2 NBV EV NBV 22.7%4.7%-8.4%-8.7%EV 2019 11.54%11.05%8.62%10.54%3 2018 9.3%4.3%2018-9.3%-6.0%28 2019 NBV 2816639209162896451345694105214927589022.7%4.7%-8.4%-8.7%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 2018H1 2019H1%2018-2019 3.4 2020 3.4.1+2020 V 3 23 12 1 300 43.5%46.2%2.7%22 29 2020 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%300%10%wind 1 2020+3 23 12 1 300 43.5%27.2%2020 5.7%6.7%30 2020 4.3%5.1%4.6%4.6%5.3%6.2%5.9%5.5%6.3%5.2%7.5%7.7%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%2020 2 2020 V 2020 2.48%6 3 23 2.63%12 1 3.27%64bps 3 NBV Q2 2020+5%-12%-33%+8%23 31 2020 1094 1695 330 193 1154 1489 220 209 5%-12%-33%8%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%020040060080010001200140016001800 2019 2020%2019 2020 2020-6.6%-14.6%-12.2%-5.2%+19.5%+5.9%NBV NBV margin 2020 NBV 496 584 178 92 61-34.7%-0.6%-27.5%-6.1%+9.7%NBV margin-14.6pct-2.3pct-4.4pct-10.6pct 32 2020 NBV Margin 13.6%17.8%20.7%24.5%29.2%32.9%39.4%43.7%43.3%38.90%24.3%27.9%30.8%30.4%38.8%37.4%39.3%43.7%47.9%33.30%10.5%12.9%13.3%11.5%15.0%22.4%39.7%47.9%30.3%19.70%12.4%14.6%16.0%16.3%17.1%23.8%26.9%28.9%32.4%30.10%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.4.2 2020 3 23 12 1 46.2%80.5%68.1%57.4%43.8%24 33 2020 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%wind 34 2020 NBV 58698759452459797795837349575178419182-0.6%-34.7%-27.5%-6.1%-40.0%-35.0%-30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000 2019 2020%2019 2020 2020 9 4.4.1 2022 2022 1 2022 11 2.93%2022 2.58%35bps 2023 1 13 26bps 300 16.1%40.7%2 3 3 4 2022 10 31 2023 5 15 300 14.0%52.7%38.7%25 35 2022 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%300%10%wind 2022 10 31 2023 5 15 76.3%75.0%60.7%48.6%1 2022 2019 2 2023+115%36 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 wind 4.2 2022 Q2 2023 2023+9%+10%+4%-26%+9%26 37 2023 65366431508099557811930714784747684434139130549.4%10.0%4.2%-25.8%9.4%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000 2022Q1 2023Q1%2022-2023 1 2019 2023 72-1%-15%66-0.9%-15%40-9%2 2022+51.7%+22.5%NBV+22.1%63.4%+11.3pct+47.6%+31.7%+10.3%6 2023 2022Q1 2022 2023Q1 2023 84.6 72.9 72.2-1.0%-14.7%78.0 66.8 66.2-0.9%-15.1%53.8 44.5 40.4-9.2%-24.9%2022 2022 2023 38 74.397.9149.5 157.8143.9161.3137.882.066.8 66.263.687.0111.1138.6141.7116.7102.460.044.5 40.434.448.265.387.484.779.074.952.527.917.525.932.834.837.050.760.638.919.714.218.925.624.639.141.418.69.70501001502002503003504004505002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2014-2022 2023 NBV 2023 2023 NBV+7.7%+8.8%+21.1%27+16.6%NBV NBV margin-3.7pct 20.9%39 2023 NBV-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2023 40 2021 NBV 15%-42%-34%-60%-34%-17%-20%12%9%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000 NBV 2021-2022 2023 41 2021 NBV-9%-52%-45%3%30%17%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0200040006000800010000120002021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1/NBV 2021-2022 2022 2023 4.3 2013 0.93x PEV 2013-2019 1.06x PEV 1x PEV 2023 5 25 0.56x PEV 0.79x 0.57x 0.48x 0.42x 1 2023 2 2023 NBV 2 2.7%3 2023 5 25 0.42-0.82 2023E P/EV 28 42 2013 0.00.51.01.52.02.5 PEV 0.93x PEV wind 29 7 EV 1YrVNB A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 48.40 76.34 77.89 84.35 92.32 2.07 1.58 1.77 2.02-A 37.55 42.56 43.54 47.72 52.26 1.58 1.27 1.41 1.60-A 37.07 82.97 81.93 88.73 96.65 1.92 0.78 0.85 0.95-A 28.63 51.80 54.01 59.73 66.82 1.39 0.96 1.05 1.15-A 6.01 6.25 6.41 7.32 8.41 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.10 P/EV VNBX A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 48.40 0.63 0.62 0.57 0.52-13.48-18.70-20.29-21.78-A 37.55 0.88 0.86 0.79 0.72-3.16-4.70-7.22-9.18-A 37.07 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.38-23.94-57.76-60.46-62.82-A 28.63 0.55 0.53 0.48 0.43-16.62-26.53-29.55-33.13-A 6.01 0.96 0.94 0.82 0.71-2.65-4.73-14.46-23.80 EPS BVPS A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 48.40 5.56 4.58 6.36 7.33 44.44 46.97 50.69 55.64-A 37.55 1.80 1.14 1.37 1.82 16.93 15.43 16.78 18.27-A 37.07 4.79 3.15 4.15 5.56 34.78 32.98 36.33 42.44-A 28.63 2.79 2.56 3.05 3.29 23.57 23.75 26.65 29.82-A 6.01 0.49 0.55 0.68 0.80 4.96 5.01 5.66 6.41 P/E P/B A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 48.40 8.71 10.56 7.61 6.60 1.09 1.03 0.95 0.87-A 37.55 20.84 33.08 27.40 20.67 2.22 2.43 2.24 2.06-A 37.07 7.74 11.77 8.92 6.67 1.07 1.12 1.02 0.87-A 28.63 10.26 11.19 9.40 8.71 1.21 1.21 1.07 0.96-A 6.01 12.28 10.89 8.81 7.52 1.21 1.20 1.06 0.94 WIND 2023 5 25 30 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%31 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23185717(021)23185718(021)23185715(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219399(010)50949926(021)23219820(021)23185645(021)23154149(021)23185643(021)23185646(021)23185641(021)23185639(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23185653(021)23185650(021)23185659(021)23185655(021)23183109(021)23185656(021)23185657 洢(021)23219419(021)23185680(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23185676(021)23185672(021)23185673(021)23185675(021)23185669(021)23185670(021)23185678(021)23185677(021)23185679 珮(021)23154121 喆(021)23185649(021)23185648(021)23185652(021)23154116(021)23185651(021)23185647(021)23185715(021)23185662(021)23219733 021-23154147(021)23185661(021)23185663(021)23185660(021)23185665(021)23219420(021)23185635(021)23185667(021)23185835(021)23185838(021)23185832(021)23185837(021)23185833(021)23185836(021)23185718(021)23154143(021)23185616(021)23185607(0755)82780398(021)23219808(010)68067998(021)23154120(010)56760096 86 10 56760096(021)23185606(021)23185619(021)23185638(010)56760096(021)23185692(021)23185699(021)23185705(021)23154145(021)23154113(021)23185698(021)23185617(021)23185741(021)23219399(021)23154125(021)23185683(021)23185703(010)58067907(021)23219104(021)23154120(021)23212208(021)23185690 02123219406(021)23185622(021)23185615(021)23185632(021)23219747(021)23185696(021)23185689 32(021)23154652 翀(021)23154139(021)23185608(021)23185630(021)23185602(010)58067998(021)23185633(021)23185628(021)23154113(021)23219692(021)23219171 02123219171(021)23185691(021)23185627(0755)82764281(021)23185611(021)23219431(021)23219392(021)23185642(021)23219392(021)23154174(021)23154174(021)23185682(021)23185700(021)23185620(010)50949926 010-56760095(021)23185681(010)50949926(021)23219634(010)56760090 010-56760090(021)23185695(021)23219382(021)23185610(010)56760091(021)23185621(021)23154510(021)23185640(021)23212081(021)23185635(021)23185636 玥(021)23219814(021)23185625(021)23185686(021)23219391 劼 18515295560(021)23185701 13718567611(010)58067998(021)23185702(021)23154172(021)23185685(021)23185613 晅(021)23185612(021)23155626(021)23154395(021)23185697(021)23185609(021)23219399(755)82900465(021)23183110 祎(021)23185687(021)23219244(021)23185618(021)23185631(021)23185623(021)23185637(021)23185629 33(0755)23607963(0755)82775962(0755)83253022(0755)83255933(0755)82775282(0755)23617160 0755-25597716(021)23219385(021)23219397(021)23219384(021)23219410(021)23154192 23214650 祎(021)23212268(021)23219373 祎(021)23219281(010)58067988 010-5806 7936(010)58067931 垚(010)58067851 689 9 021 23219000 021 23219392