20230602_广发证券_保险行业保险资金运用专题：历史图景与未来展望_40页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/40 Table_Page 行业专题研究|保险 2023 年 6 月 2 日 证券研究报告 Table_C ontacter 本报告联 系人：Table_Title Table_Author SAC S0260520060001 SAC S0260517050001 SFC CE.no:BOB667 0755-82564292 0755-82535901 Table_Summary 40 1 1995-2011 2005 9%2011 15.7%2 2012-2016 25%30%5%10%3 2017-2018 4 2019-2019 34.6%2022 41.7%2016 IFRS9 A/H(A/H)A/H H Table_Report:4-2023-05-17 2023 1:2023-05-03:3-2023-04-18 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)PEV/PB(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 601318.SH CNY 47.45 20230427 68.30 6.83 7.69 6.95 6.17 0.56 0.51 13.19%13.19%601336.SH CNY 36.78 20230430 43.54 4.28 5.53 8.59 6.65 0.42 0.38 12.26%15.17%601601.SH CNY 28.20 20230428 38.05 3.38 3.90 8.34 7.23 0.48 0.45 13.95%15.02%601628.SH CNY 37.80 20230428 44.50 2.01 2.34 18.81 16.15 0.77 0.68 11.94%12.36%02318.HK HKD 49.30 20230427 67.70 6.83 7.69 0.52 0.48 0.52 0.48 13.19%13.19%01336.HK HKD 20.00 20230430 44.43 4.28 5.53 4.24 3.28 0.21 0.19 12.26%15.17%02601.HK HKD 19.58 20230428 29.87 3.38 3.90 5.25 4.55 0.30 0.28 13.95%15.02%02628.HK HKD 13.04 20230428 25.20 2.01 2.34 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.21 11.94%12.36%01299.HK HKD 75.20 20230312 99.50 0.61 0.76 15.74 12.63 1.51 1.38 12.94%15.78%02328.HK HKD 9.33 20230428 11.49 1.47 1.86 5.76 4.55 0.83 0.79 14.80%17.60%Wind EPS PB PEV YWBYvMmRpMpOoQpMnQtMmN7NcM9PoMoOoMmPjMmMsMlOoOnP9PrQmRuOoMtNMYmNoM 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险.6.7.10.13.15.17.20.24.29.35.35.36.38.38 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 1.6 2 1999-2022.6 3 2000-2011.9 4 1999-2011.10 5 2012-2016.12 6 2012-2016.12 7 2012-2016%.13 8 2017.14 9 2018.14 10 2017-2018%.15 11 2019-2022.16 12 2019-2022.17 13.18 14 2008-2022%.19 15 2012-2022.19 16 2007-2011%.21 17 2004-2011%.21 18 2008-2011%.22 19 2004-2011%.22 20 2004-2011%.23 21 2010.23 22 2011.23 23 2008-2011%.24 24 2008-2011%.24 25 2012-2016%.25 26 2012-2016%.25 27 2012-2016%.26 28 2012-2016%.26 29 2012-2016%.27 30 2012-2016%.27 31 2012-2016%.28 32 2012-2016%.28 33 2017-2022.31 34 2017-2022.31 35 2017-2022.32 36 2017-2022.32 37 2017-2022.33 38 2017-2022.33 39 2017-2022.35 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 40 2017-2022.35 41 2015-2016 10%.35 42 2015-2016%.35 43 2022-2023 10.37 44/.37 45 2023.37 1 1995-2011.7 2 2011.8 3 2005-2011.9 4 2012-2016.10 5 2014.11 6 2012-2016.12 7 2017-2018.13 8 2017-2018.15 9 2019-2022.16 10 2019-2022.17 11 2008-2022%.19 12 2003-2011.20 13 2005-2011.21 14 2005-2011.22 15 2012-2016.25 16 2012-2016.26 17 2012-2016.27 18 2012-2016.28 19 2017-2018.30 20 2017-2022.30 21 2017-2022.32 22 2017-2022.33 23 2017-2022.34 24 2014-2016.36 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2022 25 2004 CAGR 19.1%1 1979 40 20 2 1999-2022 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022保险行业 资金运 用余额（左轴）YoY0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022行业 投资 收益 率1999年：允许 通过基金间接 投资股 票2004年：允许 险资进入 二级 市场、境外投 资、银行 刺 激债务等2006年：允许 险资投资 资本 市场、资产证券化 产品、不动产、参 股商业 银行等2009年：允许 险资投资基础 设施、放开投资范 围、债 券比例提升 至40%2010年：允许险资投资未上市公司股权2012年：降低不动产投 资要求，比例 提升至10%，允许委外、扩 大境外投资范 围、允许参与 衍生品交易2014年：允许保险 公司 投资创业板、修改投资比例、允许投资优 先股2015年：允许设立私募基金2017年：加强保险资金乱象整治2018年：保险资 金运用管理 办法、参 与长租市场、放宽股权 投资 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 1.+1995-2011 1995 1996 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 1 1995-2011 1995 1999 2004 2006 2007 2009 30%40%2010 2008 2010 5%20%25%15%5%15%10%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2 2011 5%20%20%20%10%20%25%10%15%3%10%15%10%2.2000-2011“”1999 2.5%2000 2000 83.2%2011 9.8%0.9%78.8%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 3 2000-2011 2005 36.7%2011 32.1%52.3%47.1%9%15.7%6.7 3 2005-2011 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-2011 36.7%26.5%28.1%29.8%32.1%-4.6%52.3%57.9%51.0%49.2%47.1%-5.2%9.0%5.4%7.4%6.6%5.3%6.7%7.9%11.2%7.8%6.9%3.5%3.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%3.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.5%0.5%2.0%2.3%2.3%2.1%0.7%-1.4%3.1995-2004 1999-2004 3.6%2004 5 2007 12.17%2008 1.91%2006-2011 5.8%1999-2005 3.6%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011传统寿险 分红险 健康险 投连险 万能险 意外险 其他 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 4 1999-2011 wind 1.2012-2016 4 2012-2016 2012 1 2 3 5%10%2012 2012 1 2 25 20 3 15%2012 2012 2014 2014 2014 A 2015 01000200030004000500060000.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011保险资金 运用平 均收益 率 上证指数 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2014 25%30%5%10%30%10%15%5 2014 10%15%30%15%25%2.2012-2016 2013 2.5%4.025%2012 9.5%2016 47%2015 2014 325 2016 657 2012 8.5%2016 18.2%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 5 2012-2016 6 2012-2016 2012 2.9%2016 9.2%2012 4.7%2016 6.4%6%-7%+2012 1.5%2016 12.6%11 6 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 34.5%29.7%27.1%21.8%18.6%-16.0%44.9%43.6%38.2%34.4%32.2%-12.8%4.7%4.2%5.1%7.9%6.4%1.7%6.4%5.5%6.0%7.3%6.9%0.5%2.9%4.4%6.9%8.0%9.2%6.3%0.5%0.9%0.8%0.8%1.1%0.6%4.6%8.3%11.6%12.3%13.2%8.6%0.2%1.1%0.9%2.2%3.6%3.4%1.3%2.3%3.5%5.3%9.0%7.7%3.2012-2016 5.6%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016传统寿险 分红险 健康险 投连险 万能险 意外险 其他21.9%95.2%55.1%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002013 2014 2015 2016万能险规 模保费 yoy 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 7 2012-2016%1.2015-2016 2017-2018 2017 2018 7 2017-2018 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 1 2 3 2018 2018 1 2 10 3 050010001500200025003000350040000.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016行业投资 收益率 上证指数（右）识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2018 30%30%15%2.2017-2018 30.9%33.5%16.1%20%2017 58.9-50%8 2017 9 2018 2017 7.3%2018 6.4%2017 9.9%2018 10.4%47.5%30.9%16.1%1.7%0.4%3.3%传统寿险 分红险 健康险 投连险 万能险 意外险42.2%33.5%20.0%0.4%0.0%3.9%传统寿险 分红险 健康险 投连险 万能险 意外险 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 8 2017-2018 2016 2017 2018 18.6%12.9%14.9%-3.7%32.2%34.6%34.4%2.2%6.4%5.0%5.3%-1.1%6.9%7.3%6.4%-0.5%9.2%9.9%10.4%1.2%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.0%13.2%15.5%15.8%2.6%3.6%5.7%4.6%1.0%9.0%7.9%7.3%-1.8%3.2017-2018 2017 5.8%2018 4.3%10 2017-2018%wind 1.2017-2018 2019 2021 30%5.84.305001000150020002500300035000.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02017 2018行业平均 投资收 益率 上证指数 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 10%-45%30%25%25%20%9 2019-2022 2019 2019 2020 45%2021 2021 2021 2.2022 71.6%25.3%3.1%11 2019-2022 13%2019 34.6%2022 41.7%73.4%72.0%70.9%71.6%22.8%24.5%25.4%25.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022寿险 健康险 意外及健 康险 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 10 2019-2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 13.6%12.0%11.3%9.9%-3.7%34.6%36.6%39.0%41.7%7.1%5.1%5.1%12.7%5.4%0.3%8.1%8.7%6.0%7.8%-0.3%10.7%10.5%-10.3%-0.4%1.0%1.0%-15.9%14.5%-4.3%4.5%-1.3%2.3%3.5%5.3%4.0%3.2019-2022 4.6%5%12 2019-2022 2022 5 4.4 2 1.2 2010 2021 7.4%2.3%11.8%11.1%270028002900300031003200330034003500360037000.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%2019 2020 2021 2022行业平均 投资收 益率 上证指数（右侧）识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 13 2008-2022 4.5%4.9%4.9%4.8%,10 3.4%2016 2008-2009 2016-20%0%20%40%60%80%中国平安 新华保险 中国人寿 中国太保 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 11 2008-2022%10 2008 7.3 4.1-6.2 3.9 2009 3.9 3.9-4.0 3.3 2010 3.8 4.2-4.3 3.5 2022 4.1 4.5 4.28 4.7 3.9 2012 4.7 4.7 4.4 5.1 3.5 2013 4.6 5.1 4.5 5.0 3.8 2014 5.2 5.3 4.7 5.3 4.2 2015 4.9 5.8 4.3 5.2 3.4 2016 5.1 6.0 4.6 5.4 2.9 2017 5.1 5.8 4.9 5.4 3.6 2018 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.9 3.6 2019 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.9 3.2 2020 4.6 5.1 4.3 4.7 2.9 2021 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.5 3.0 2022 4.6 4.7 4.00 4.3 2.8 2004-2022 5.1%5.0%5.2%5.4%4.7%0.1 0.3 2012-2022 5.1%5.8%14 2008-2022%15 2012-2022-50510152004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022新华 平安 国寿 太保0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022太保 国寿 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2011 1.2003-2011 2007 2007 24.3%50.9%2007-2011 2011 81%11.5%6.5%1%2003 15.7 1.8 12 2003-2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 96.7%96.9%93.8%74.6%50.9%80.7%76.0%77.8%81.0%-15.7%50.5%40.1%28.2%17.8%7.5%18.2%15.5%17.4%19.6%-30.9%44.1%56.4%65.0%56.4%42.8%61.7%59.6%59.2%58.2%14.1%2.1%0.3%0.6%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.1%3.2%1.1%3.3%3.1%6.2%13.5%24.3%7.8%10.8%9.7%11.5%8.2%3.0%2.8%4.0%3.9%3.5%2.9%3.3%3.0%2.9%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.9%7.5%6.8%8.6%8.6%0.3%0.3%2.1%9.6%20.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.2%1.5%1.2%1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.5%24.5%10.3%11.7%11.2%6.5%6.5%2007-2011 4.2%10 0.5 2004-2011 5.4%2008-2011 0.3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 16 2007-2011%17 2004-2011%wind 2.2011 85.6%10.3%2.9%1.3%1.2%2004 5.8 4.5 13 2005-2011 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 91.4%93.2%83.7%65.4%86.8%74.4%82.7%85.6%-5.8%46.1%57.4%52.7%44.2%57.2%49.9%53.4%53.0%6.9%45.3%35.7%31.0%20.7%28.7%23.6%24.5%26.3%-19.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.7%4.9%4.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.5%5.8%5.8%15.3%22.8%4.8%12.3%12.7%10.3%4.5%0.0%0.1%6.3%12.1%1.8%6.6%5.7%5.1%5.1%5.6%5.6%8.9%10.6%2.8%5.2%5.7%3.9%-1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%1.3%1.2%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%2.3%5.0%0.5%1.3%1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.2%6.1%8.3%4.0%2.9%2.9%2004-2011 4.8%10 1.2 2004-2011 5.6%0.5 3.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.62007 2008 2009 2010 2011平安 净投 资收 益 率 10 年 期 国债收 益率-4-202468101214162004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011平安 总投 资收 益 率 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 18 2008-2011%19 2004-2011%wind 3.2006-2011 2007 22.9%2008 2011 79.4%12.1%8.5%2006 1.7 7.5 14 2005-2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 77.7%72.0%85.8%79.1%78.6%79.4%1.7%25.5%19.8%24.4%29.4%33.0%34.8%9.3%52.1%52.1%61.4%49.7%45.5%44.6%-7.5%13.9%22.9%8.0%15.3%14.7%12.1%-1.8%7.3%14.7%4.4%8.8%7.5%6.4%-0.9%6.6%8.2%3.6%6.5%7.2%5.7%-0.9%8.4%5.1%6.2%5.6%6.8%8.5%0.1%2004-2011 2011 4.3%10 0.4 2004-2011 5.5%0.4 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02008 2009 2010 2011太保净投 资收益 率 10 年 期 国债收 益率024681012142004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011太保总投 资收益 率 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 20 2004-2011%4.2005-2010 2005 2010 CEO 2005 2010-2011 2005 2010 CEO 2010-2011 2011 83.8%7.8%5.6%2.8%8.7 5.5 21 2010 22 2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 0.05.010.015.02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011中国人寿 行业投资 收益率83.8%7.8%5.6%2.8%固定收益 类投资 股权型投 资 现金及等 价物 其他投资75.1%13.3%9.3%2.3%固定收益 类投资 股权型投 资 现金及等 价物 其他投资 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 4.8%10 1.1 2008-2011 3.5%4.2%0.7 2011 10%2011 7.8%83.8%23 2008-2011%24 2008-2011%2013-2015 80%80%1.2012-2016 2016 74.6%16.9%6.3%2.2%2012 7.5 0.7 6.8 0.8 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02008 2009 2010 2011新华净投 资收益 率 10 年 期 国债收 益率012345672008 2009 2010 2011新华总投 资收益 率 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 15 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 81.4%82.2%79.7%77.7%74.6%-6.8%22.5%18.3%16.0%11.2%10.5%-12.0%52.1%52.0%46.9%47.9%46.2%-5.9%3.5%8.7%8.0%7.9%6.9%3.4%0.0%0.0%5.5%6.8%6.3%6.3%3.3%3.3%3.4%4.0%4.7%1.5%9.4%9.8%14.1%16.2%16.9%7.5%2.3%2.7%2.4%3.9%2.2%-0.2%7.1%7.1%9.9%7.2%6.9%-0.2%0.0%0.0%1.1%1.4%2.1%2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.5%3.8%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.6%1.1%1.9%1.9%0.8%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.8%1.5%1.7%1.4%1.5%2.2%0.7%6.8%5.6%4.8%4.6%6.3%-0.6%2012-2016 2012-2016 4.7%6%5.4%10 3.5%1.8 2012-2016 5.2%5.6%2012 2.9%2016 5.3%25 2012-2016%26 2012-2016%wind 2.2012-2016 0.05.010.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国平安 10 年 期 国债收 益率0.05.010.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国平安 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 26/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2012 2016 2.8 2.3 16 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 85.00%84.80%86.70%82.00%82.20%-2.80%52.80%56.00%55.20%50.40%50.00%-2.80%26.20%21.60%21.70%18.10%14.00%-12.20%4.50%5.20%6.20%6.20%6.50%2.00%0.10%0.20%1.20%3.00%4.70%4.60%1.50%1.80%2.30%3.00%3.60%2.10%10.00%11.30%10.60%14.40%12.30%2.30%4.30%4.70%3.80%3.90%3.30%-1.00%4.50%5.00%4.40%5.40%4.10%-0.40%1.10%1.30%1.40%1.80%2.00%0.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.30%0.50%0.50%0.00%0.30%1.00%3.00%2.40%2.40%1.00%1.00%0.90%0.70%0.90%-0.10%4.00%2.90%1.80%2.80%4.50%0.50%2012-2016 5.1%5.4%2012-2016 5.2%10 3.5%1.7 5.4%5.6%2012 3.2%2016 5.2%27 2012-2016%28 2012-2016%wind 0.02.04.06.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国太保 10 年 期 国债收 益率0.02.04.06.08.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国太保 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 27/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 3.2012-2016 2016 2012 8.2 3.7 4.4 17 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 82.0%83.2%85.9%77.7%78.3%-3.7%35.8%35.9%32.8%24.6%21.9%-13.9%46.2%47.3%44.8%43.5%45.6%-0.6%0.0%0.0%3.0%3.0%5.8%5.8%0.0%0.0%5.3%6.6%4.9%4.9%9.0%7.5%11.2%18.0%17.2%8.2%5.7%4.3%4.5%4.9%5.7%0.0%3.3%3.2%4.0%7.4%4.9%1.6%0.0%0.0%2.7%5.7%6.6%6.6%9.0%9.3%2.8%4.3%4.5%-4.5%2016 2012-2016 4.5%10 1 2014-2015 2012-2016 4.8%0.8 29 2012-2016%30 2012-2016%wind 0.02.04.06.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国人寿 10 年 期 国债收 益率0.05.010.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016中国人寿 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 28/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 4.2016 76%15.8%0.7%2.1%5.4%2012-8.8%9.1%0.7%-3.1%2.2%18 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 84.8%85.3%81.9%74.9%76.0%-8.8%48.9%55.6%55.2%54.8%64.3%15.4%-44.7%37.9%36.1%35.7%-4.7%9.5%7.9%9.2%-0.8%4.0%4.6%4.8%-3.6%3.2%3.1%3.0%-1.8%0.6%3.1%11.6%-35.9%29.7%26.7%20.1%11.7%-24.2%6.7%5.9%9.7%17.4%15.8%9.1%3.3%2.4%3.6%8.2%6.9%3.6%3.4%3.5%5.5%5.3%4.3%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.6%3.9%4.6%4.6%0.0%1.7%1.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%5.2%3.4%2.3%2.2%2.1%-3.1%3.2%3.8%4.5%4.9%5.4%2.2%2012-2016 4.9%10 1.4 2012-2016 5.3%5.6%31 2012-2016%32 2012-2016%wind 0.02.04.06.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016新华保险 10 年 期 国债收 益率0.02.04.06.08.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016新华保险 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 29/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2017 2017 IFRS 9 1.IFRS 9 9(IFRS9)ISAB 2017 4 22 23 24 IFRS9 2019 1 1 2021 1 1 IFRS 9 IFRS9(AC)(FVTOCI)(FVTPL)ECL 2018 1 1 IFRS 9 IFRS 9 2017 1.9%2018 18.5%14.7%27.6%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 30/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 19 2017-2018 2018 2017 18.50%1.90%11.20%1.30%2.80%0.40%1.60%-2.90%0.20%14.70%-61.60%-5.20%4.30%-27.60%-36.00%-30.20%IFRS 9 2022 2017 2 1.9 2017 11.1%2022 5.2%4 2.4 2.3 20 2017-2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 69.4%72.5%71.7%73.0%71.7%71.4%2.0%6.7%7.2%6.6%6.1%5.3%5.4%-1.3%43.8%45.5%46.9%50.2%48.6%50.7%7.0%5.7%5.6%4.1%4.3%5.0%4.2%-1.6%9.9%10.2%9.3%6.7%6.7%6.0%-3.9%0.0%0.0%0.6%1.4%1.5%0.9%0.9%3.4%4.0%4.3%4.3%4.6%4.3%0.9%19.4%17.2%18.9%18.0%18.2%17.4%-1.9%1.8%3.1%2.9%3.1%4.6%5.9%4.0%11.1%8.3%9.2%8.4%7.0%5.2%-5.9%1.6%1.2%1.2%1.1%0.8%1.2%-0.5%3.2%2.9%3.6%3.2%3.0%2.7%-0.5%1.6%1.8%2.1%2.2%2.8%2.5%0.9%2.4%3.3%3.8%4.2%4.1%4.7%2.3%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.7%2.6%2.7%0.8%5.7%4.2%3.0%2.3%2.8%3.3%-2.4%1.2%0.9%0.7%0.8%0.6%0.4%-0.7%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 31/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 2017 2017 5.8%2022 4.7%,2017-2022 5.1%10 1.9 IFRS 9 2019 2017 2018 IFRS9 3.7%2019 2020 2021 2019 6.9%2022 2.5%2019-2022 5.2%0.4 33 2017-2022 34 2017-2022 wind 2.2017 2017 2022 2017 7.9 48.2%40.2%7.4 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国平安 10 年 期 国债收 益率0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国平安 行业投资 收益率 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 32/40 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|保险 21 2017-2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 81.8%83.1%80.4%78.3%75.7%73.9%-7.9%48.2%46.3%42.6%39.3%38.2%40.3%-7.9%9.6%10.4%10.4%11.7%10.8%10.1%0.5%8.6%10.9%10.7%11.4%12