资源描述
|ESG PB ROE 1 4500 4 22 ESG 1(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)2(600489)3(000807)(601600)4(000831)/2023 05 09 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 S0860523040001 2023 16 2023-04-24 2023-04-18 2023 15 2023-04-17 2.5 1.1“”.5 1.2“”.6 1.3“”.7.12 2.1“”“”“”.12 2.2.15 2.3.16.18 3.1.18 3.2.21 3.3.21 3.4.22“”.27 4.1.27 4.2“”.28 4.3.29.31 5.1.31 5.2.33 5.3.35.37.38 0YFUxOqNmPoPqOpMnQqPrQbRcMaQnPrRmOsReRrRtOlOnMnNaQmNoOvPnPnQNZsQvN 3 1 98 2022 12.6 2 2023 5 5.7 3 PB 2023 4 28.8 4 PB 2023 4 28.8 5 2022.9 6 2022.9 7 ROE.9 8 ROE.9 9.10 10.12 11 247%.12 12%.13 13().13 14.13 15.13 16.15 17 2022.16 18 2022.16 19/.18 20.19 21.19 22 M1/.20 23 VIX/.20 24 CPI PCE%.21 25 Q1GDP%.21 26/:.22 27 23 3.22 28 2023Q1.22 29.23 30 2022 20.23 31 ROE%.23 32%.23 33%.24 4 34 2022 56.77.24 35 2022.24 36.26 37/.27 38 2022.27 39 2022 10/.27 40 GWh.28 41/.28 42 2021/.28 43 2022.29 44 2022.29 45 ROE.30 46 PB.30 47.31 48.33 49 REO.33 50.33 51.34 52.34 53.34 54 2022.35 55.36 56.36 1.5 2.6 3“”.10 4.13 5 2022.14 6 1 2023 4 28.17 7.23 8 34 507.35.24 9.26 10.31 11.32 12.32 5 1.1 2022 5 27 1/2022 10 2022 12 2022 2023 1 1 2 2023 1 2022 2023 2 2023 3 2023 3 2023 3 6 1.2 13 2022 12 98 500 13 1 98 2022 12 30 16.3%SW SW 136 18 14%SW 48 12 25%30 16.3%2 000807.SZ 601600.SH()000878.SZ 600497.SH 000762.SZ 000657.SZ 600058.SH 000831.SZ 600961.SH 600581.SH 000717.SZ 181312987 76 643 32048121620 7 600019.SH 601005.SH()000825.SZ()600808.SH 600782.SH 688456.SH 000758.SZ()000962.SZ 600489.SH 000898.SZ 000629.SZ()000761.SZ 002057.SZ 000969.SZ 600980.SH 000778.SZ 600392.SH 688190.SH 000708.SZ Wind 2023 5 5 SW 12 46%A SW 18 15%2 2023 5 5 Wind 1.3 46%15%29%30%36%20%0%20%40%60%80%100%8 PB ROE PB PB PB 2023 4 28 PB 2.36 PB 2.37 2.53 PB 1 2023 4 28 PB 0.84 PB 0.86 1.63 3 PB 2023 4 28 Wind 4 PB 2023 4 28 Wind 2022 SW 16 38.61%22 37.39%73 28.30%SW 12 48.59%13 37.35%19 42.12%012345672018/4 2019/4 2020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018/4 2019/4 2020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 9 5 2022 6 2022=/Wind=/Wind ROE 2018 ROE 2022 ROE 12.54%13.02%22.29%ROE 2022 ROE 3.64%0.38%13.61%ROE 7 ROE 8 ROE ROE=/Wind ROE=/Wind 2020 2021 2022 38.61%37.39%28.30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%48.59%37.35%42.12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 9 2023 1 GDP 4 ROE ROE 3 GDP/*100%/*100%/*100%/*100%11/*100%ESG 12 2.1 2020 12 2021 2022 4 2021 3000 2022 1.92%2023 21 2023 4 25 30%15 6 5 10 11 247%wind wind 1 2010 615 2022 1452-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020000400006000080000100000120000:506070809010018-0318-0718-1119-0319-0719-1120-0320-0720-1121-0321-0721-1122-0322-0722-1123-03:(247):13 12%13()wind 14 15 wind wind 2 2022 12 13 2022 4)2022 11-2022 2022 9 60 7.00 2023 9 2022 9-1.02-020406080100120247 050010001500200025002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022CS CS CS CS CS 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%CS CS CS CS 0204060801001201401601802012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CS CS CS CS CS 供给侧改革 14 2021 11 320 92.69 2023 6 2024 12 2020 1 150 2022 6 348.5 270 70%2018 12 102 2020 10 200 192 2022 5 2022 1)():2):3):4);5)1)2)21 56 5;3);4)5);6)1 2;3)3 2016 9 19 2025 60%-70%10 8000 3-4 4000 6-8 15 2018 2018 2020 2020 2025 2022 2022 10.13 1.32 13.0%2022 12 21 2022 0.56 5.5%7000 16 2.2 2022 200 200 100 50 2017 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%14-0214-0714-1215-0515-1016-0316-0817-0117-0617-1118-0418-0919-0219-0719-1220-0520-1021-0321-0822-0122-0622-11 16 17 2022 wind 18 2022 wind 2.3 1 1(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)050100150200250 B 050100150200250 17 6 1 2023 4 28/PB(MRQ)PE(TTM)(%)239 0.46 17.84 73.76 198.39 268 0.48-18.80 39.34 50.93 127 0.48 113.14 49.26 43.34 115 0.54-25.11 53.78 32.98 289 0.60 2375.68 65.03 83.29 131 0.63-8.59 45.78 39.38 229 0.67-13.40 48.74 105.20 65 0.71-5.02 54.35 6.88 365 0.73 5.72 51.88 81.15 182 0.72 12.54 50.66 95.46 1434 0.73 13.92 45.79 217.84 190 0.74-8.10 65.60 43.61 62 0.71-16.09 51.01 6.10 165 0.76-47.85 53.90 65.91 163 0.81 33.99 29.44 88.90 60 0.85-2.13 80.98 8.06 100 0.82-3.97 72.29 29.86 157 0.93-10.25 56.08 12.97 112 1.11-7.16 68.41 85.34 830 1.57-107.72 58.16 52.63 65 2.23-4.76 89.94 16.91 91 1.05 15.99 22.74 47.67 41 1.32 22.75 12.09 17.27 67 1.47 6.06 70.21 34.58 107 2.22 31.50 78.19 21.16 393 2.24 17.55 64.14 26.91 68 2.28 35.03 48.57 10.11 73 2.31 32.83 48.58 20.58 361 3.96 30.02 23.15 23.69 34 1.09 13.78 30.19 7.28 43 2.05 179.24 21.36 5.48 815 2.18 12.28 59.86 87.13 72 2.52 19.20 32.86 5.95 2022 6 22 2022 12 21 wind 18 3.1 1971 19/Wind=-10 TIPS TIPS 10 TIPS 02040608010012014005001000150020002500:19 20 Wind/TIPS 10%QE M1-=TIPS 2008 2020 21 Wind/%2008 M1 2011 2015 2020 M1 2008-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.505001000150020002500:(TIPS):10 01234567805001000150020002500:20 22 M1/Wind%/500 VIX VIX 2008 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 VIX 23 VIX/Wind 03006009001,2001,5001,8002,100-10-50510152025303540451971197219731975197619781979198019821983198519861988198919901992199319951996199719992000200220032005200620072009201020122013201420162017201920202022:M1:M1:M1:M1:010203040506070809005001000150020002500:500(VIX)21 3.2 23Q1GDP GDP 1.1%1.9%2.6%Q1 5 3 5 25bp 3 500 FOMC 2%24 CPI PCE%25 Q1GDP%Wind Wind 3.3 2022Q3 458.56 406.36 Q4 378.58 1004 2023 3 8133.46 3355.14 2025.44 2023 0246810:PCE:PCE:CPI:CPI:-2-1012342022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1:GDP:GDP:22 26/:27 23 3 Wind Wind 3.4 100%45.84%30 13 600916.SH 5.88%28 2023Q1 60%2022 571.51 1.87%21.17 24.7%372.4 6.47%30%2022 20-10001002003004005002014-032014-092015-032015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-038133 2025 846 310 2299 3355 787 23 7 39.60%2.74%39.59%0.01%43.33%0.49%2022 29 30 2022 20 Wind Wind 2020 2022 ROE 2019 1.47%2022 8.35%19 0.5%22 0.16%19 4.74%22 4.38%22 31 ROE%32%Wind Wind 01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0102030405060-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 24 2018 2018 49.21%22 42.43%22 56.77 33%34 2022 56.77 Wind Wind 507.35 2022 34 507.35 19.58 35 2022 14 10 28 3.25/225.7 2730.11 46.96 8 34 507.35 8320.51 1526.66 10.70/780.83 4 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05001000150020002500 25 24035.72 9522.75 3.91/1962.56 11 5521.14 1261.71 9.47/759.25 5 33193.22 2155.83 3.27/1024.77 5 23642.85 5348.01 2.28/1501.17 10 8489.13 3138.55 4.44/311.60 20 17212.96 4518.03 7.69/536.40 22 16343.93 4690.35 2.20/309.08 10 5419.62 880.23 1.86/511.04 14 14768.24 2633.15 3.14/470.40 5 44664.33 8570.07 2.56/1173.79 25 61170.03 10599.66 1.83/1235.01 21 6483.50 2470.97 3.37/430.01 10 3454.49 453.02 3.69/569.66 2 4192.00 2.54/507351.58 93118.27 3.25 19579.75 225.70 2730.11 942.20 46.96 6.07 2022 90%2019 60.98%19 90%46.96 190.98 2022 2.2 7.2 21.3 30.7 6244 25 1 97.42 2022 2022 4.152 1,025 11,342 591 2022 1.02 26 9 75300 30%,70%4149.36 80644.13 18027 53994 30%,70%3959.72 52071.72 4932 75203 2068.61 20185.99 128781 2022 PE PB 36 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 0102030405060708090100PE(TTM)PE(2023)PB 27 4.1 2017 4500 2022 4495 4070 37/Mysteel 2022 337/243/7%6%38 2022 39 2022 10/Mysteel CRU 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 14%8%7%6%3%3%59%193 207 207 243 255 290 337 348 384 576 0 200 400 600 800Vedanta Alcoa EGARio Tinto RUSAL 28 4.2 2021 2022 4043 59%2022 5477 6.35%80%40 GWh IAI 13.8 7.0 2 8 16 2021 56%25%17%2 16 13.8 7.0 41/42 2021/IAI Rio Tinto CRU 89%45%2021 5 2022 88.6%90%90%90%90%90%90%89%80%82%10%10%10%10%10%10%7%15%16%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2020A 2021A 2 8 16 024681012141618 13.8 7.0 0246810121416 29 2022 45%43 2022 IAI 4.3 2022 11 19%29.10%2018 44 2022 Wind ROE PB H ROE ROE 9%-21%ROE 2021-2022 39.57%59.59%ROE 1%-10%45%89%18%58%0%20%40%60%80%100%100%72.92%29.43%99.99%29.1%13%30 2019-2022 ROE 5.16%22.54%PB PB PB 2023 3 PB 45 ROE Wind 46 PB Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01234562020/8 2021/2 2021/8 2022/2 2022/8 2023/2 31 5.1 2019-2030 6.5%10 4-10 2020 35%91%39%61%42%35%91%47 32 数据来源：Adamas Intelligence（2019），东方 证券研 究所 21-25CAGR 17.8%2022 5 25 16.6 21-25CAGR 17.8%USGS 2020 35%4050 11 1 2000 1000 9600-12000 1 2 2+2 2011 2021 12 2022 12 3500 690 3 14 1 66 57 20 50 33 5.2 85%83%8%3%3%48 2020 Fe-Nb-REE 2020 1 77%REO 3-5%REO 3500 22 42000 REO 41300 REO 49 REO 50 数据来源：中国 稀土行 业协会、东方 证 券研究所 数据来源：中国 稀土行 业协会、东方 证 券研究所-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 55 60 65 70 75 8022Q3 22Q4 23Q1/34 68%2023 2023 12 REO 1.09 REO 68%23 10.9 2.8 8.1 51 52 数据来源：中国 稀土行 业协会、东方 证 券研究所 数据来源：中国 稀土行 业协会、东方 证 券研究所 22 Lynas MP Materials 2021-2022 50%53-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2019 2020 2021 2022 Lynas MP Materials 35 5.3 2022 5 22 54 2022 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 22 9 2.5 13%22 44%2.5 3.68 2020 2020 2021 2022 7%8%13%36 55 56 数据来源：公司 公告、东方证 券研究 所 数据来源：公司 公告、中国稀 土行业 协 会、东方 证券研 究所-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,0002020 20212022 1-9 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%-500 1,000 1,500 2,0002020 20212022 1-9 REO 37 ESG PB ROE 1 1(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)2(600489)3 4500(000807)(601600)4 4(000831)38 39 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
展开阅读全文