资源描述
|22 Q1 Q2 PMI 2 7 OMO LPR 2020 23 2.8%/4.8%23Q1 2.1/2.4pct PB 4 6 9 12 5%31 ROE 10%18(601328)(601658)(600036)(002142)(600919)(601838)(002966)(601128)(601998)(601916)(601077)/2023 06 13 S0860522040001 LPR 2023-05-28 2023-05-21 1 2023-05-08 2023 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.11 2.3.13 2.4.16 2.5.17 3.PB.20 3.1.20 3.2.21 3.3.22 4.24 4.1.24 4.2.24 4.3.25 5.26 XVAZyRnQpMpOqOsRrMqPrQ9P9R7NmOmMpNsRlOpPoQlOrQqM9PmMyRvPqQwOMYqRtQ 3 1 PMI.5 2.5 3 300 3.7%.6 4.6 5.7 6 23Q1.7 7 23Q1 22A 5.2pct.7 8.8 9.8 10 1 4.9 11.9 12 23 10.4%.10 13 23 23.10 14.11 15.11 16 23Q1.11 17 1.8%.12 18 23Q1.12 19 23Q1.12 20 LPR.12 21 23Q1.12 22 23Q1.15 23.17 24 23Q1.17 25 ROE 10%.20 26.20 27 2018.21 28+.21 29 vs10.21 30.22 31.22 32 14%.22 33 23Q1.23 34-23Q1.24 4 35.25 36.25 37-22A.25 38 21.25 1 2023Q1 2022Q4.13 2 2022-.15 3.16 4 23Q1.17 5.19 5 1.22 Q1 Q2 PMI 2 7 1.1 1 22 1 1 GDP 4.5%4.0%4 PMI 2 1 4 1 PMI 2 Wind Wind 4 2-3 6 9 2.75%300 3.65%31 11 40455055602020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/5(%):PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:(10,000)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002020/42020/62020/82020/102020/122021/22021/42021/62021/82021/102021/122022/22022/42022/62022/82022/102022/122023/22023/4()6 3 300 3.7%Wind 4 2023 6 9 Wind 6+32.7%+30.7%30%10.9%/19.4%0.900.951.001.051.101.152022/12 2023/1 2023/2 2023/3 2023/4 2023/5 300-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%7 5 2023 6 9 Wind 1.2 23Q1 2.4%2022 5.2pct 0.7%2022 0.1pct 1 1 2 3 1 6 23Q1 7 23Q1 22A 5.2pct Wind Wind 23 1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/3-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/3 8 1 23Q1 11.4pct 2 23Q1 1 7.4pct 3 23Q1 17.3 1 4 23Q1 1.4pct 0.7pct 22A 23Q1 4.7pct 8 Wind(+13.6%,YoY)+10.3%YoY+9.9%YoY 10%+15%+9 Wind-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2022Q1-3 2022A 2023Q1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%22Q1-3 22Q1-3 9 2.OMO LPR 2020 23 2.8%/4.8%23Q1 2.1/2.4pct 2.1 1 Q1 10.6 2.3 1 4 7188 2018-2021 1.2 1 1.7 1.5 1-4 9.7 3.1 2.2 4-1255-1156 10 1 4 11 Wind Wind 10%11%12%13%14%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002020/42020/62020/82020/102020/122021/22021/42021/62021/82021/102021/122022/22022/42022/62022/82022/102022/122023/22023/4%-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002021 2022 2023()1-4 1-4 1-4 10 23 1 23Q1 23 23 10.7%vs11.1%22A 35.9 10.4%1 2 23 3.8 2022 7.68 2022 3 2019-2022 1.76 1.32 2.67 0.58 2022 8-9 5000 0 4 2023 50%3(19-22 3.3 4.4 3.3 2 12 23 10.4%13 23 23 Wind Wind 23Q1 15.2%/41.2%23Q1 051015200100,000200,000300,000400,000%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000%11 14 15 Wind Wind 16 23Q1 Wind 2.2 1.8%23Q1 1.74%17BP 23Q1 4.26%22Q4 7BP 23Q1 2.02%22Q4 2BP 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.002021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9 2022/12 2023/3(%)0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00(%)05101520253035402018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/3(%):():12 17 1.8%Wind 18 23Q1 19 23Q1 Wind Wind 23Q1 OMO LPR 20 LPR 21 23Q1 Wind Wind 1.501.701.902.102.302.502.702.903.102017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/3(%)3.40%3.60%3.80%4.00%4.20%4.40%4.60%22Q4 23Q10.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%22Q4 23Q10.001.002.003.004.005.006.002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/3(%)LPR 1 LPR 5 MLF 1 2345678(%):13 2020 6 8 5BPs 0.2%10BPs 2.05%15BPs 2.45%/2.5%23 22 2.3 23Q1 22 3BP 1.27%23Q1 0.58%vs0.76%22A 23 1 4pct 245%3.11%3BP 400%1 2023Q1 2022Q4 22Q4 23Q1 22Q4 23Q1 22Q4 23Q1 1.38%1.38%0.00%209%214%4%2.90%2.95%0.05%1.38%1.38%0.00%242%242%0%3.34%3.33%-0.01%1.32%1.18%-0.14%189%203%14%2.50%2.39%-0.11%1.37%1.37%0.00%303%303%0%4.16%4.15%-0.01%1.35%1.34%-0.01%181%183%3%2.44%2.46%0.02%0.84%0.82%-0.02%386%381%-4%3.26%3.11%-0.15%0.96%0.95%-0.01%451%448%-2%4.32%4.27%-0.05%1.27%1.21%-0.06%201%209%8%2.55%2.54%-0.01%1.68%1.60%-0.08%142%144%2%2.39%2.30%-0.09%1.09%1.09%0.00%236%233%-4%2.59%2.53%-0.06%1.52%1.52%0.00%159%161%2%2.42%2.44%0.02%1.25%1.25%0.00%188%188%0%2.35%2.35%0.00%14 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ll 1.3 0%1.2 7%-0.0 3%2 4 1%2 4 5%4%3.1 4%3.1 1%-0.0 3%1.33%1.29%-0.03%239%243%4%3.17%3.15%-0.03%1.29%1.27%-0.02%222%224%2%2.86%2.84%-0.02%1.12%1.10%-0.02%312%315%3%3.50%3.45%-0.04%1.14%1.12%-0.02%369%368%-1%4.21%4.14%-0.08%23Q1 22Q4 Wind 15 22 23Q1 Wind 22 13 3 0.82%22 8BP 22Q4 2 2022-2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 0.61%0.02%0.00%0.00%1.52%1.19%9.77%7.65%1.98%1.29%1.06%0.24%0.69%0.00%3.39%3.02%3.47%2.80%1.62%1.03%0.63%0.50%0.57%0.53%0.83%0.69%1.13%0.98%0.29%0.22%0.13%0.16%3.50%2.83%1.87%2.09%2.08%2.58%0.60%0.41%0.96%1.25%0.71%0.10%5.42%5.96%1.77%1.62%1.76%1.02%4.11%4.29%0.43%0.39%0.80%0.61%0.80%0.95%0.33%0.19%0.38%0.49%7.12%0.46%2.21%2.39%0.26%0.45%1.77%1.00%0.11%0.02%5.47%6.14%2.98%4.36%2.82%4.08%2.15%1.30%0.77%1.43%2.13%2.02%2.40%2.41%2.18%1.10%1.40%0.41%0.41%0.39%0.19%0.16%1.38%1.58%1.01%0.93%0.24%0.15%0.51%0.15%0.19%0.18%0.12%0.00%2.84%2.45%0.93%0.91%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 2023Q1 16 0.25%0.17%0.00%0.17%0.36%0.46%0.83%3.86%2.1 7%2.0 8%2.1 5%2.0 8%1.3 5%1.2 6%1.1 5%1.1 5%0.7 6%0.6 1%2022 2022 Wind 3 2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 2022H 2022A 0.56%0.60%0.31%0.39%2.24%1.83%0.44%0.55%0.25%0.37%1.44%1.46%0.54%0.65%0.36%0.51%1.24%1.23%0.60%0.71%0.36%0.47%1.92%2.02%0.94%0.85%0.37%0.44%2.66%1.95%1.11%1.13%0.52%0.57%1.82%1.95%0.82%0.89%0.27%0.35%1.67%1.77%1.17%1.47%0.51%0.56%2.73%0.99%1.03%-1.92%2.06%1.02%1.09%-1.18%1.32%0.30%0.37%2.15%2.68%1.59%1.50%0.33%0.50%2.95%2.67%1.43%1.50%-2022 2022 Wind,23Q1 2.4 1 23Q1 4.8%22 1 23Q1 83.8%17 23 Wind 24 23Q1 Wind 2.5 1 23Q1 1%4 23Q1 4Q2022 1Q2023 14.0%13.7%-0.3%4.7%13.7%13.2%-0.5%4.2%11.8%11.6%-0.2%2.6%11.2%10.7%-0.5%2.2%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 2023Q1-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%23Q1 18 10.1%10.0%0.0%1.8%9.4%9.7%0.4%1.7%13.7%13.4%-0.3%5.2%8.7%8.8%0.0%0.7%9.2%9.0%-0.1%1.0%9.8%9.7%-0.2%1.4%9.2%9.1%-0.1%1.1%8.7%9.1%0.4%1.3%9.2%8.9%-0.3%1.2%8.6%8.9%0.3%1.2%8.1%8.0%0.0%0.5%9.5%9.6%0.0%1.8%9.7%9.6%-0.1%2.1%9.8%9.6%-0.2%1.9%9.1%9.3%0.1%1.5%8.8%8.4%-0.4%0.6%11.0%11.0%0.1%3.5%8.1%8.1%0.0%0.6%8.5%8.2%-0.3%0.7%9.3%9.4%0.1%1.9%8.8%8.6%-0.1%1.1%10.5%10.5%0.0%3.0%9.7%9.4%-0.3%1.9%9.5%9.7%0.2%2.2%9.5%9.3%-0.2%1.8%9.6%9.5%-0.1%2.0%9.6%9.5%0.0%2.0%8.5%8.3%-0.2%0.8%13.0%13.1%0.1%5.6%12.8%13.0%0.2%5.5%11.0%11.1%0.1%3.6%10.2%9.6%-0.6%2.1%10.2%10.1%-0.1%2.6%9.4%9.7%0.3%2.2%10.4%9.5%-0.9%2.0%9.8%9.5%-0.2%2.0%13.1%12.8%-0.3%5.3%14.4%13.7%-0.7%6.2%4Q22 Wind 23 4.8%19 23 2.8%/4.8%23Q1 2.1/2.4pct 5 2022 2023Q1 2023H 2023E YoY(YoY)3.0%-1.8%-2.1%-2.4%(YoY)-2.9%-4.8%-3.5%0.8%(YoY)0.6%0.7%0.5%2.8%(YoY)4.7%5.2%3.3%4.4%(YoY)-1.3%-1.2%-0.8%1.6%(YoY)-10.9%-6.6%-8.0%-8.2%(YoY)7.6%2.4%3.4%4.8%YoY 12.3%13.7%12.0%11.8%1.93%1.82%1.78%1.76%1.30%1.27%1.25%1.24%Wind 20 3.PB 4 6 9 12 5%31 ROE 10%18 3.1 2020 2010 ROE 25 ROE 10%26 Wind Wind 2018 5+22Q4-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-10.00.010.020.030.040.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%)A 21 27 2018 28+Wind Wind 3.2 6 7 2.68%15.5BP 6 7 A 4.82%2.14pct 31 29 vs10 Wind 020004000600080001000012000140002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002014/32014/92015/32015/92016/32016/92017/32017/92018/32018/92019/32019/92020/32020/92021/32021/92022/32022/92023/3(%)0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00(%)12 22 30 2023 6 9 Wind 3.3 6 9 PB 0.49x 2013 0.9%14%23Q1 22Q4 0.6pct 1.53%300 14.39 23 19 0.7-0.8 40%31 32 14%Wind Wind 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.00.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6SW 300 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0.50.550.60.650.70.750.80.850.911.051.11.151.21.251.30PB X 23 33 23Q1+Wind 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%24 4.1(601328)(601658)2(600036)(002142)(600919)(601838)(002966)(601128)3(601998)(601916)(601077)4.1 34-23Q1 Wind 4.2 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%25 35 36 Wind Wind 37-22A Wind 4.3 38 21 Wind 10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%2018/22018/52018/82018/112019/22019/52019/82019/112020/22020/52020/82020/112021/22021/52021/82021/112022/22022/52022/82022/112023/2(%)0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%-0.40%-0.30%-0.20%-0.10%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%23Q1 21 26 5.21 27 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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