资源描述
|2023 06 19 1 2021 30%2 2024 2018-2021 CAGR 87%CAGR 60%2022/2021 10%1 2 3 4&1 2 1+2&3/2030 5.9%/2.3%142/56&/2022 10.69/10.34/2022 240/232 S0680523040001 1 2023 2022-12-23 2 2022-08-09 3 2022-07-26 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 603833.SH 4.41 5.17 5.98 6.83 22.08 18.84 16.28 14.26 603801.SH 1.72 2.12 2.58 3.09 18.49 15.00 12.33 10.29 002572.SZ 1.17 1.44 1.64 1.84 15.04 12.22 10.73 9.57 603180.SH 1.80 2.63 3.22 3.83 18.06 12.36 10.10 8.49 603816.SH 2.20 2.53 3.09 3.56 17.85 15.52 12.71 11.03 300616.SZ-0.23 1.19 1.58 1.90 84.28 17.79 13.31 11.11 Wind-32%-16%0%16%2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 300 2023 06 19 P.2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.8 1.3.10 2.14 2.1.14 2.2.16 2.3.20 2.4.21 3&.24 3.1.24 3.2.25 3.3&.26 3.4.27 4.29 4.1.29 4.2.31 4.2.1.31 4.2.2&.33 4.3.36 5.38.39 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.6 5.7 6/.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.9 11.9 12 2019-2021.9 13 2021.9 14.10 15.10 16.10 17.11 18.12 19.12 1ZBYyRrMtQpOrPnOqNrOnMaQ8Q8OmOrRtRoNkPoOqOkPpNqQaQpPuMwMrNvNwMmOmM 2023 06 19 P.3 20 2018-2021.13 21 2020-2022.13 22 2018-2021.13 23&.13 24.14 25.14 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30 2019-2030E YoY.16 31.17 32 2022.17 33.18 34 2017-2022&.18 35 2017-2022&.18 36.18 37 2016-2020.19 38.19 39.20 40 2022 YoY.20 41 2022.20 42.21 43.21 44 4.0.22 45.22 46.23 47 0.23 48-.24 49-.24 50-.25 51-.26 52 2018-2021&.26 53-.26 54 2018-2022.26 55.27 56.28 57.28 58.28 59.28 60.29 61 2018-2022.29 62 2018-2022.29 63.30 64 2022&.30 64 2022&.30 2023 06 19 P.4 66 2022&.31 67.32 68.32 69 HOMKOO F2C.33 70-.33 71&.34 72.34 73.35 74.35 75 HOMKOO.35 76 2020-2030/&YOY.36 77 2020-2030E&.37 78 2017-2022&.38 79.39 2023 06 19 P.5 1 1.1 1 2021 1 2 2021 2 3 2021 2021 2023 06 19 P.6 4 2021 2023 06 19 P.7 5 1000/10 22 1200-1600/10-15/1525/19.51/6/7 2021 2021 75.2%14.0%10.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1000 1001-1500 1500 41.7%28.4%16.5%13.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%100000 100001-150000 150001-200000 200001 2023 06 19 P.8 1.2 35 76%25-30 40%80 90 8 9 2023 06 19 P.9 10 11 2021 30%2021-2.2pct 2019-2021 13.0%/17.4%/20.9%2021 30.0%12 2019-2021 13 2021 2021 2021 44.0%44.0%13.0%33.6%49.0%17.4%30.4%46.8%20.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 202130.0%19.2%19.1%21.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2023 06 19 P.10 14 15 2021 2021 1.3 2019/2021/2030 0.4/0.6/2.5 2019-2030 CAGR 18.4%2024 1.1 16 2021 2023 70%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E yoy 2023 06 19 P.11 17 2015 2021 899-1299/2011 A6 2022 999-1458/90 108090/138090 2017 1299/2018 2021 998/2019&2020 2022 1349/2017 2021 1349/2019 2007 899 70 83800 2022 1298/2015 2020 999-1399/2015 2022 1+N 688-999/2016 69800/50 99800/50 2006+2017 2023 Magic 80 128900 2014 2015 2016 S 1580-1980/80 136519 2021 2023 5 70 99900 2020 2022 80 92800 90 165370 2021 wind 2023 06 19 P.12 18 2021 2018 2018-2021 3.5 22.8 CAGR 86.8%1.9 7.9 CAGR 59.6%2.9%10.8%2020-2022 0.7 11.4 CAGR 303.1%0.8%10.1%19 2018 2021 StarHomes 2022 6 2023 3 2022-2025 2000+800-1000 2019 2022 160 425 93 2C BIM 2B HOMKOO 2023+2018 2022 2018 2022 91+56 2022 5 2000+5000 BC 68.9%31.1%2023 06 19 P.13 20 2018-2021 21 2020-2022 22 2018-2021 23&wind wind 106%66%90%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 yoy/656%115%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%0246810122020 2021 2022 yoy/122%26%46%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01234567892018 2019 2020 2021 yoy/1%10%3%11%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 19 P.14 2 2.1 2022 24 2022 25 2021 48.5%21.2%11.3%10.5%7.7%1.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%71.5%40.8%26.8%24.9%21.6%20.4%19.2%17.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2023 06 19 P.15&1 26 2 272 1200+80%92.5%10 27 3 30%4&79.1%13.4%3.3%3.1%0.8%0.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1-10 10-20 20-30 1-2 2 2023 06 19 P.16 28 29 2.2 1 2021 2.99 2030 6.58 2021-2030 CAGR 9.2%2 2022/43/22 3.5 3 10%60%-70%30 2019-2030E YoY 2.993.516.58-5%0%5%10%15%20%012345672019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E YOY 2023 06 19 P.17 31 32 2022 40 2019 48 22 2022 19 23 43 2022 150 5 2022 40-20 70 6 2022 25 200 4 2022 428 7 2021-170 wind 1 2 3 10%60%-70%20%-30%2023 06 19 P.18 33 34 2017-2022&35 2017-2022&wind wind/36 20%10%10%30%70%5%25%100%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SW SW SW-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SW SW SW 2023 06 19 P.19 1 SKU 2016-2020 37 2016-2020 2 SKU 3 38 2021 13.210.6024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2023 06 19 P.20 2.3 39 2022 2022/28%/17%12197 32067 40 2022 YoY 41 2022 wind wind 2030/+1010/1311/644/616/1177 4500 28%17%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000 yoy12197 3206705000100001500020000250003000035000-2023 06 19 P.21 42 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2,957 2,910 2,937 2,891 2,890 2,636 2,785 2,819 2,851 2,896 2,930 2,965 YOY 7.4%-1.6%0.9%-1.6%0.0%-8.8%5.6%1.2%1.1%1.6%1.2%1.2%1,237 1,173 1,099 1,031 1,020 929 979 983 987 1,002 1,006 1,010 YOY 5.3%-5.2%-6.3%-6.2%-1.0%-9.0%5.4%0.4%0.4%1.5%0.4%0.4%979 966 1,142 1,185 1,202 1,102 1,175 1,202 1,228 1,255 1,283 1,311 YOY 3.4%-1.4%18.3%3.8%1.4%-8.3%6.6%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%741 771 696 674 668 606 632 635 637 639 642 644 YOY 17.3%4.1%-9.8%-3.1%-1.0%-9.3%4.3%0.5%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%1,459 1,498 1,601 1,655 1,666 1,562 1,645 1,679 1,707 1,736 1,764 1,793 YOY 4.8%2.7%6.9%3.4%0.7%-6.2%5.3%2.1%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.6%565 567 584 589 590 547 575 585 593 601 608 616 YOY 4.1%0.4%3.0%0.7%0.2%-7.3%5.2%1.7%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%+894 931 1,017 1,066 1,076 1,015 1,069 1,093 1,114 1,135 1,156 1,177 YOY 5.3%4.1%9.2%4.9%0.9%-5.7%5.3%2.3%1.9%1.9%1.8%1.8%wind 2.4 43 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2023 06 19 P.22 1 2023 4.0 80%44 4.0 2 70%TOP5/45 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%/2023 06 19 P.23 1 4D VR DIM+46 2 110 47 0 2023 06 19 P.24 3&4 3.1 1 2 48-49-2023 06 19 P.25 3.2 1 2 3 50-1 2 3 4 2023 06 19 P.26 3.3&1 2 2021/23.9%/33.1%9.2pct 51-52 2018-2021&wind 2018-2022 2022/59/58 53-54 2018-2022 wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2018 2019 2020 2021 01020304050607080901002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 19 P.27 3.4 4 55-&-1 2023 06 19 P.28 56 57 2 3 58 1 2 3 59 2023 06 19 P.29 4 4.1 2022 0.8%/4.2%60 61 2018-2022 62 2018-2022 wind wind 0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%00.050.10.150.20.252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%01234567892018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 19 P.30 63 39800 20+11+7 3+3980+39800 20+4+7 3+3980+44544 20+12+2 2 8+999+39800 20+11 3+2+6 2 PRO 7+1 49800 24/28/32+39800 29800 30000+3+2+39800 18-20+10+2 2023 4 22 1 0.2%64 2022&65 2022&wind wind 2+7%4%2%1%86%8%5%3%0.4%84%2023 06 19 P.31 3 20%10%2022/1185/1031/674/1066/589 66 2022&wind 4.2 4.2.1 1 2014 2 2021 9 3 2018 2019 0500100015002000250030003500 2023 06 19 P.32 67 68 1 2&3 2017 HOMKOO F2C 2021 2023 06 19 P.33 69 HOMKOO F2C 70-4.2.2&2023 06 19 P.34 71&2021 1.72 5 72 2021 2023 06 19 P.35 73 74 CAXA 3D BOM/MES 3D DIY HOME ERP/MES/SRM/WMS ERP/3D 3D ERP/MES/SRM/WMS 3D ERP/BOM/MES/SCRM 3D ERP/MES/APS/QMS/WMS/SRM 3D ERP ERP/BOM/MES CAXA+HOMKOO 75 HOMKOO 2023 06 19 P.36 4.3 2030/&6.58/2.53/0.48 40%2030/142.1/56.4&5.9%/2.3%&1 2020-2021 2022 7-10pct 2&2022 80%/10%2020-2022 2022/20%/10%3 76 2020-2030/&YOY 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 3.09 2.99 3.51 3.88 4.30 4.51 4.80 5.12 5.42 5.78 6.58 YOY 2.3%-3.2%17.4%10.5%10.8%4.9%6.4%6.7%5.9%6.6%13.8%0.54 0.62 0.80 0.95 1.13 1.27 1.44 1.63 1.84 2.09 2.53 YOY 36.9%16.2%27.4%19.5%18.8%11.9%13.4%13.7%12.9%13.6%20.8%17.4%20.9%22.7%24.5%26.3%28.1%29.9%31.9%34.0%36.2%38.4%&796 994 1353 1646 1990 2265 2612 3001 3424 3933 4803 YOY 47.9%24.9%36.2%21.7%20.9%13.8%15.3%14.9%14.1%14.9%22.1%753 937 1274 1523 1809 2024 2296 2610 2946 3347 4045 YOY 47.5%24.5%35.9%19.5%18.8%11.9%13.4%13.7%12.9%13.6%20.8%70.0%75.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%304 351 454 538 637 711 801 903 1019 1149 1378 YOY 42.1%15.6%29.5%18.3%18.6%11.6%12.6%12.8%12.8%12.8%19.9%40.3%37.4%35.7%35.3%35.2%35.1%34.9%34.6%34.6%34.3%34.1%250 365 522 633 756 854 979 1124 1276 1465 1788 YOY 47.8%46.0%43.2%21.2%19.4%12.9%14.6%14.9%13.6%14.8%22.1%33.2%38.9%41.0%41.6%41.8%42.2%42.6%43.1%43.3%43.8%44.2%199 222 297 352 416 459 517 583 650 733 879 YOY 56.0%11.3%33.8%18.4%18.2%10.5%12.6%12.8%11.5%12.7%19.9%26.5%23.7%23.3%23.1%23.0%22.7%22.5%22.3%22.1%21.9%21.7%43 56 80 124 181 240 316 391 479 586 758 YOY 56.5%30.8%41.5%55.4%46.2%32.9%31.3%24.0%22.3%22.4%29.5%8.0%9.0%10.0%13.0%16.0%19.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%28.0%30.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%2023 06 19 P.37 16 21 28 44 63 84 110 136 166 202 261 YOY 53.0%26.1%37.9%54.7%44.7%32.7%30.9%23.5%21.8%22.0%29.0%37.9%36.5%35.6%35.4%35.0%35.0%34.9%34.7%34.6%34.5%34.4%+27 36 51 80 118 156 206 256 313 384 498 YOY 58.7%33.6%43.6%55.8%47.1%32.9%31.6%24.2%22.5%22.6%29.7%62.1%63.5%64.4%64.6%65.0%65.0%65.1%65.3%65.4%65.5%65.6%wind 77 2020-2030E&2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 10.2 18.7 25.7 33.0 41.9 50.4 61.5 74.8 90.3 110.0 142.1 YOY 83.8%37.4%28.3%27.1%20.3%22.0%21.6%20.7%21.8%29.2%2.6 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.9 9.2 10.9 12.8 15.1 17.7 22.2 YOY 79.9%12.7%23.3%23.6%16.6%17.6%17.8%17.8%17.8%24.9%25.2%24.6%20.2%19.4%18.9%18.3%17.6%17.1%16.7%16.1%15.6%5.8 11.1 16.9 21.3 26.5 31.3 37.4 44.8 53.1 63.7 80.9 YOY 91.7%51.7%26.2%24.4%17.9%19.6%19.9%18.6%19.8%27.1%57.0%59.5%65.7%64.7%63.3%62.0%60.8%59.9%58.8%57.9%56.9%1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.9 6.0 7.3 9.0 11.7 YOY 60.8%28.7%28.4%28.2%20.5%22.6%22.8%21.5%22.7%29.9%9.6%8.4%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%8.0%8.1%8.1%8.2%8.2%0.8 1.4 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.9 8.4 11.2 14.8 19.6 27.4 YOY 67.9%14.5%65.4%56.2%42.9%41.3%34.0%32.3%32.4%39.5%8.2%7.5%6.2%8.0%9.9%11.7%13.6%15.0%16.4%17.8%19.3%&2.6%3.8%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.5%4.7%5.0%5.3%5.6%5.9%0.7 5.3 11.4 14.4 18.1 21.5 25.9 31.1 37.0 44.4 56.4 YOY 655.7%114.9%26.7%25.9%18.8%20.3%19.9%19.1%19.9%27.1%&0.2%1.1%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.3%wind 2023 06 19 P.38 5 2024 2019-2030 CAGR 18.4%1 2+3&2017-2022 9960/18498/CAGR 13.2%2022 10.69/10.34 2017-2022/54/53/90/49/92/75/105/55/140/193 240/232 CAXA 60%90%120 260 78 2017-2022&2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 54 58 62 74 83 92 140 142 154 163 218 240 8.24 9.91 11.65 11.58 12.31 10.69 90 85 83 88 97 105 93 79 75 76 84 78 8.79 9.87 9.85 4.77 3.12 2.55 53 61 65 63 72 75 193 188 180 135 179 232 13.72 15.48 15.01 12.44 10.78 10.34 49 45 49 50 54 55 99 81 72 64 66 53 6.90 6.84 6.64 6.55 6.21 5.00 wind 1 2018 2 2023 06 19 P.39 3 2019+79 PE 2023E PB LF 603833.SH 19.74 0.2%3.86 1.9%603801.SH 15.85 32.4%3.46 50.1%002572.SZ 12.34 1.9%3.13 18.1%603180.SH 13.01 9.0%2.04 14.6%603816.SH 15.41 0.8%3.49 3.3%300616.SZ 18.37 15.9%1.25 6.6%wind 2023 6 15 2023 06 19 P.40“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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