资源描述
|2023 06 26 2021-2022 50%42%2023 2023Q1 516%1.:2022 9%2023 5.6%2.:2023M1-4 1.4 89%100/7.1/7.0/6.9pct 2023/19%/20%2023 5 26.1%20.6%+2025 50%/PB 1.0/1.8/2.5 1 A+H A+H A+H H 2 A S0680518030004 S0680519070003 S0680122030019 1 2023-06-18 2 2023-06-11 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600011.SH-0.47 0.63 0.79 0.91-18.8 14.1 11.2 9.7 600027.SH-0.01 0.50 0.62 0.73 659.9 12.9 10.4 8.9 600795.SH-0.16 0.39 0.47 0.54 24.1 9.7 8.1 7.1 00836.HK 1.46 2.77 3.14 3.40 11.2 5.9 5.2 4.8 601991.SH-0.02 0.19 0.27 0.33-148.0 17.1 12.1 9.9 600642.SH-0.22 0.57 0.70 0.79 29.4 11.4 9.2 8.2 600023.SH-0.14 0.48 0.57 0.65-36.4 10.2 8.6 7.6 000539.SZ A-0.57 0.31 0.51 0.67-12.4 22.6 13.9 10.6 Wind 6 21 A Wind-32%-16%0%16%2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 300 2023 06 26 P.2 2023Q1.4 1.1.4 1.2 2023Q1.5 Q2.8 2.1.8 2.1.1.8 2.1.2.10 2.2.10 2.2.1.10 2.2.2:.14.17 3.1.17 3.2.20 3.3.21.22.22 1 2022.4 2.5 3 Q5500/.5 4 SW.6 5 2020-2022.6 6 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1.7 7 2022 2023Q1%.7 8 2021 2022 2023.8 9 2018-2023.8 10/.9 11.9 12 2017-2023 5 CCTD.9 13 2030.11 14 2020-2060E.11 15%.11 16.11 17.12 18.13 19.13 20.14 21/.15 22 2 5/).15 23.16 24 2011-2022%.17 25.18 0YFUxOmRmPrQsMoNnQoRpO6M8QbRnPmMsQpMlOpPsMiNnPrO9PmMyQMYtPoOxNmQnN 2023 06 26 P.3 26 2017-2022%.19 27 2017-2022 CAGR.19 28.19 29()/.20 30 PERC(182mm)/.20 31 LCOE/.21 32/.21 33 2018-2022 PB.21 34.22 2023 06 26 P.4 2023Q1 1.1 8 2022 73%83%82%80%78%71%1 2022 8 1 2022 2 300/3 100/4 13%5 0.11-0.15/1000/6 6 Q5500 795/100/+7.1pct A+7.0pct+6.9pct+6.7pct+6.4pct+6.1pct+5.7pct+5.7pct 01020304050607080901000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2023 06 26 P.5 2/0.49 0.46 0.53 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.46/0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.11 0.13 0.15 3881 2138 2112 1087 385 3860 1518 412 5500/1000(154.2)(170.3)(26.4)(18.0)(35.6)(254.1)(166.2)(44.4)950(88.7)(134.2)9.3 0.4(29.1)(188.9)(140.5)(37.4)900(23.1)(98.1)44.9 18.7(22.6)(123.7)(114.9)(30.4)850 42.5(62.0)80.6 37.1(16.1)(58.5)(89.2)(23.5)800 108.0(25.8)116.3 55.4(9.6)6.7(63.6)(16.5)750 173.6 10.3 152.0 73.8(3.1)72.0(37.9)(9.6)700 239.2 46.4 187.7 92.2 3.4 137.2(12.3)(2.6)650 304.8 82.5 223.3 110.5 9.9 202.4 13.4 4.3 600 370.3 118.6 259.0 128.9 16.4 267.6 39.0 11.3 550 435.9 154.8 294.7 147.2 22.9 332.8 64.7 18.3 1.2 2023Q1 2021-2022 2021 5500 857/2020 50%2022 1220/2021 42%3 Q5500/Wind 200400600800100012001400160018002021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 4 2022 6 2022 7 2022 9 2022 12 2023 2 2023 3 2023 5:(Q5500):(Q5500):2023 06 26 P.6 4 SW Wind 5 2020-2022 Wind Q1 2023 6 9 Q5500K 775/2022 53.4%2023Q1 2023Q1 3030 2.6%91 516%2023Q1 2022 4pct 3.3pct 2022 Q1 Q2-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400 2019 2020 2021 2022-120-100-80-60-40-20020406080 A 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 26 P.7 6 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 Wind 7 2022 2023Q1%Wind-15-10-505101520253035 A 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1-4-20246810%2022 2023Q1 2023 06 26 P.8 Q2 2.1 2.1.1 2022 45.0 9.0%2023 2022 1-4 15.3 4.8%2023 13.7/12.5/7.5 4.4%/6.5%/0.5%2023 47.5 2.5 5.6%8 2021 2022 2023 9 2018-2023 Wind-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0246810121416 2021(A)2022(A)2023(E)2023 yoy%200003000040000500006000070000800001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 06 26 P.9 2022 2022 4 2022 5 1 2023 3 31 3%5%6%2023 3 2023 12 31 2023 3 2020 2023 1-4 1.42 89%2 10/11 Wind Wind 2023 2023 5 CCTD 35783 33%4 37%3600 17 8300 3046 12 2017-2023 5 CCTD Wind CCTD 40060080010001200140016002022-03-162022-05-072022-06-272022-08-152022-10-092022-11-252023-01-162023-03-092023-04-27:1#(Q4800):3#(Q3800)05001000150020002500300035004000450050001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 20202021 2022 2023050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 06 26 P.10 2.1.2 2022 12 2023 2022 1.2022 30 2.+5500 675/2022 700/100%2023 2022 80%90%2023 1.2023 2.2023 2.2 2.2.1 3 4 1961 2 5 446 5 2023 13.7 6%2022 1 2030 2023 06 26 P.11 5G 3400 1800 9%15000 5300 1300 10 CAGR 5.7%2022 8.6 3.9%4.2%2025 9.2 CAGR 3%2030 10.7 2025 11 2030 28%21%27%13 2030 14 2020-2060E 15%16+110013005300150000 5000 10000 15000 20000 05101520253035402020 2025E 2030E 2050E 2060E 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 YOY%0246810121416182020 2025E 2030E 2050E 2060E 2023 06 26 P.12:6-8 17:30 60 50%30%625/3060 80%50%444/2023 06 26 P.13 18 600-700/14-20/300-500/2630-3546/7013-9457/0.56-0.58/6300-7200/:2022 6 33 320 2018 0.83%PJM 2.5%8%19 2018.2 2019.2()600/MWh 150/MWh 2022.9 0.4-1/0.2-0.8/15/12/2020.5 50%5%2020.6 5%20%0.6/2020.7()(2020)60%5%2021.9 100%-70%70%10%10/MWh 10/MWh 500/MW h 2022.4 2022 1/kWh 950/MW 2022.9 400/AGC 360/160/800/240/1000/2023 06 26 P.14 2023.1 300/MW 2023.5 0.55/0.25/2023.5 4MW/1 2023.5 2023 1 1 10 1 20 2020.11()2022.3 0.0991()K1(0-50%),K2(150%-200%)2022.12()40%220/30%2.2.2:2023 2023 467/391/19%554/20%2023 06 26 P.15 2023 5 26.1%20.6%40.5%2023 5 23 7.8%2023 1-5 21/2023 466.7 19.3%553.9 19.6%465.1 19.0%552.3 19.3%2022 466.8 19.4%497.0 7.4%464.8 18.9%/22 2 5/)1-10 100 2023M1 YOY 2023M2 YOY 2023M3 YOY 2023M4 YOY 2023M5 YOY425 2.0%429 6.1%410-5.2%415-2.1%408 0.2%486-0.6%494 1.8%500 6.5%499 7.4%478 3.2%560 7.1%562 7.7%561 4.2%562-1.4%584 5.5%461 0.0%461 0.0%461 0.0%461 0.0%461 0.0%454 8.4%468 8.0%467 2.6%468 2.4%472 7.4%366 1.6%365 1.1%361 0.0%341-8.1%328 8.1%397-8.8%399-0.8%378-11.5%358-17.5%394-3.2%380-8.7%384-7.0%375-12.8%376-4.5%377 1.7%496 5.6%502 7.5%506 10.1%505 8.8%476 4.8%429 2.6%429 1.3%429 0.8%429 0.9%429 0.7%566 14.1%562 9.2%544 5.5%512 7.7%505 29.8%610 31.2%593 22.6%496 3.8%513 20.9%482 6.3%461 5.5%448 1.7%455 4.1%446 2.1%447 1.8%496-0.3%504 1.3%531 6.8%512 3.1%505 1.6%418-5.0%422-2.5%425-1.7%428 0.3%411-1.4%309-0.9%317-3.1%323-2.1%/298-3.4%288-3.8%280-13.3%289-8.1%290 0.7%276-6.1%298-0.1%294-1.4%284-4.8%293-1.4%260 14.4%262 8.8%294 24.2%285 20.3%279 42.8%388 0.9%390 3.8%392 2.4%385-0.9%386-1.5%488 28.9%454 20.9%419 6.2%405 13.1%366 5.9%461 16.8%466 23.3%453 14.3%442 16.0%427 16.1%599 11.8%598 11.9%581 4.6%569 5.5%584 9.3%453 1.3%453 2.1%502 11.7%466 5.1%410 17.3%438 0.3%456 5.9%440 1.6%416-3.2%434 2.2%566 21.7%551 17.1%515 18.7%453 12.3%446 14.7%545 5.5%541 4.4%545 6.4%524-5.1%521-2.5%560 7.1%562 7.7%561 4.2%562-1.4%584 5.5%458 20.7%467 23.2%466 25.4%456 21.4%432 15.7%534 3.9%526 2.4%532 3.5%534 2.7%536-0.3%457 19.7%421 9.8%343 4.0%437 33.8%419 41.8%湖北地区北京天津广东安徽江苏甘肃河北冀北河南黑龙江上海湖南吉林江西辽宁蒙西蒙东宁夏青海山东山西陕西海南广西四川福建重庆淅江深圳贵州 2023 06 26 P.16 2019+15 2021 3 2021 6 23 2021 7 40%4:1 3:1 2021 9 2025 2030 2035 2021 10 10%15%20%20%()2021 11 9 2022 01 2025/2030/2023 06 26 P.17 3.1 2011-2021 CAGR 37.2%28.6%28.0%24.7%21.7%18.1%17.2%2021 15-40%24 2011-2022%2020-2021 2025 8000 2021 3829 2025 50%50%2023 06 26 P.18 25 2025 19400 5860 1.2 2025 14006 3829 8000 50%2035 75%2025-3080 2025 50%2023 8334 7936 2025 2.2 60 2035 2.7 75 2025-2944 7500 2025 50%60%-2802 300 2025 4000 2025-1516 4000 2025 50%2030 1188 357 5000 72%2023-2650 1500 2021 2022 39%33%18%16%12%6%2017-2022 CAGR 23%44%10%24%21%42%2023 06 26 P.19 26 2017-2022%27 2017-2022 CAGR 28 3500 40%1500 500 3000 2020 2468 2025 5468 60-2000 50%3000 50%-2023 70%50%2025 90%70%2025 2000 90%700 2025 2000 500 10.71GW 2023 2025 2.08GW 2021 2025 45.3%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2023 06 26 P.20 3.2 2021 6 2021 2021 2022 2022 357GW 58%2023 536GW 2022 289GW 59%2023 433GW 2023 5 15 21.8/2022 51%2022 1800 1500 1200 1000 LCOE 0.18 0.22 0.28 0.34/kWh LCOE 29()/30 PERC(182mm)/Wind Wind LCOE IRENA 2021 6 2020 2021 LCOE 0.028/2010 66%2023 3 1607/2021 1 3081/48%1015202530354045502021-01-112021-04-062021-06-072021-08-162021-11-082022-01-172022-04-062022-06-132022-08-222022-11-072023-01-302023-04-10/0.20.210.220.230.240.250.260.270.280.292021-07-142021-08-112021-09-082021-10-062021-11-032021-12-012021-12-292022-01-262022-03-022022-03-302022-04-272022-06-012022-06-292022-07-272022-08-242022-09-212022-10-262022-11-232022-12-212023-01-182023-02-222023-03-22 PERC(182mm)2023 06 26 P.21 31 LCOE/32/IRENA 3.3 2018-2022 PB 1.0 PB 1.8 PB 2.5 33 2018-2022 PB SW SW SW 2018 1.15 1.13 1.42 2019 0.99 1.17 1.69 2020 0.89 1.96 2.26 2021 1.10 2.77 4.89 2022 1.06 1.88 2.36 1.04 1.78 2.52 Wind 00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.2 2010 2021120014001600180020002200240026002800300032002021 1 2021 12 2022 6 2022 12 2023 3/Kw/Kw 2023 06 26 P.22 1 2 A 34 EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 8.84-0.47 0.63 0.79 0.91-18.8 14.1 11.2 9.7 3.1 6.44 0.01 0.50 0.62 0.73 659.9 12.9 10.4 8.9 1.8 3.82 0.16 0.39 0.47 0.54 24.1 9.7 8.1 7.1 1.5 16.32 1.46 2.77 3.14 3.40 11.2 5.9 5.2 4.8 1.0 3.28-0.02 0.19 0.27 0.33-148.0 17.1 12.1 9.9 2.4 6.48 0.22 0.57 0.70 0.79 29.4 11.4 9.2 8.2 1.1 4.95-0.14 0.48 0.57 0.65-36.4 10.2 8.6 7.6 1.1 A 7.09-0.57 0.31 0.51 0.67-12.4 22.6 13.9 10.6 1.8 6.12 0.19 0.48 0.59 0.67 32.6 12.9 10.4 9.1 1.2 Wind 6 21 A Wind 1.2.3.4.2023 06 26 P.23“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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