资源描述
HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2023 06 27+-35%-26%-17%-8%2%11%20%22-06 22-09 22-12 23-03:(0763)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/34 1.5.2.7.3.22.4.33 YWBYzQtOsRrQoQmPrMqPpO9P8Q7NoMrRoMsRlOqQtNjMoMuMbRqQzRMYtQmPxNsQnO HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/34.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/34.12.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/34 1.1 2021-2025E GW 2 1.1.3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0501001502002503002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/34 4 5 2023 1 1.2.86 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/34 6 MW 7 8 MW 9 2022 2.0%40%80%120%010000200003000040000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022全球新型储能装机规模(MW)右轴:YOY%36%24%26%0%40%80%120%160%020004000600080001000012000140002018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国新型储能装机规模(MW)右轴:YOY%45%44%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/34 10 11 12 2022 7.3GW HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/34 13 2022 14 2017-2022 GW 2.1.2025 1 KW-MW KW-MW KW-50MW 5KW-MW min-h min-h min-h min-h 2000-10000 2000-6000 300-500 5000-15000 200Wh/Kg 160Wh/Kg 30-50Wh/Kg 15-30Wh/L AC/AC 90%90%70%75%77%22%1%0%20%40%60%036912152017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/34 2.1.1.15 16 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/34 2 Li(NiCoMn)O2 LiFeO4 LiCoO2 LiMn2O4/(mAh/g)280 170 274 148/(mAh/g)150 220 130 150 140 160 110 120/V 3.6 3.9 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.8 800 2000 300 500 17 2023(/)18 2022(GWh)2.1.2.BOM 30-40%0102030405060700%40%80%120%160%200%03060901201501802014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/34 3 150-250Wh/kg 100-150Wh/kg 3.0-4.5V 2.8-3.5V 3000+2000+()-40 80-20 60 10-15min 0.25-1h 19 2023 20 2023 43%11%11%16%15%26%13%18%13%4%5%10%30-40%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/34 4 100-145mAh/g 100mAh/g 70-160mAh/g 3000+4000-10000 2000+21 2.1.3.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/34 22 40 23 24 1.2GW HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/34 25 2.2.5 100-2000MW 10-300MW 5KW-1.5MW 100MW 6-12h 6-12h s-30min 6-15h 6-8 1.5-2 2 0.5-1 30-50 30-40 20 30-35 AC/AC 70-85%40-50%80-90%83-85%(2022)77.10%1.50%0.10%0.10%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/34 2.2.1.26 27 2017-2022(GWh)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%051015202530354045502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/34 28 2030 120GW 29 KW 6 2022 2023 3 2022 6 2022 4 2022 4 2022 3 2025 6200 6000 2022 3 31 2022 2 2022 1 1200204060801001201402020 2021 2022 2025E 2030E GW 154510809108407980500100015002000(kW)HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/34 7 MW 2022 7 25 1200-1600 2023 4 2400 2023 4 1400 2023 3 1200 2023 3 1200 EPC 2023 3 1800 2023 2 1200 2023 2 1800 2023 1 1280 2023 1 1400 2023 1 1300 2022 4 26 1300 2022 10 9 1200 2023 2 17 1800 2021 9 13 1200 EPC 2022 12 22 1200 2023 6 15 1400 2.2.2.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/34 30 31 32 33 300 2.2.3.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/34 34 35 Energy Vault 36 Gravitricity 250 kW 37 2.2.4.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/34 38 39 NASA 40+HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/34 3.3.1.41 3.1.1.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/34 42 2023 6 10kV/kWh 43 2023/KWh 1.3520.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6 2023H1 2022H1 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/34 3.1.2.44 2022.9-(LFP)/45 LFP 46 LFP 00.20.40.60.811.2102030405060702022-09 2022-10 2022-12 2023-01 2023-03 2023-04 2023-06(LFP)47%50%7%13%12%17%PCSBMS EMS HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/34 47 2022 2h/KWh 8 MW 10/Wh 2/Wh 0.05 10 h 2-90%-1%330 2/KWh 0.6 0.3031.5671.2590.7520.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.81 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/34 9 IRR/KWh 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1/Wh 1.8 5.2%10.0%14.5%18.7%22.7%26.6%1.9 4.1%8.8%13.1%17.2%21.0%24.7%2.0 3.0%7.6%11.8%15.7%19.5%23.0%2.1 2.1%6.5%10.6%14.4%18.0%21.5%2.2 1.2%5.5%9.5%13.2%16.7%20.1%10/KWh 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1/Wh 1.8 7.6 6.0 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.4 1.9 8.0 6.4 5.3 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.0 8.5 6.7 5.6 4.8 4.2 3.7 2.1 8.9 7.1 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.9 2.2 9.4 7.5 6.2 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.1.3.48 2018-2022 MW 705.5365.201002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MW MW HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/34 11 2022 PowerStack 2017 2022 2019 2012 2018 GWh 49 50 3.2.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28/34 51 12 2022 2022-2025 2022.12 15%2h 2022 2022.1 10%2h 2022 2022.12 20%-40%2-4h 2022.8 15%2h 2022.10 10%2h 2023.1 20%4h 2022.3 25%4h 2022.1 20%4h 2022 2022.3 8%-10%2h 2022.5 8%2h 2022 2022.10 20-25%2h-4h 2022.9 5%15%2h 2022.5 10%2h 2022.5 10%2h 2021-2025 2021.12 10%-20%2h 2022 2022.5 15%3h 2022.11 10%2h HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 29/34 3.2.1.52 53 54 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 30/34 55 56 2022 MWh 020040060080010001200 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 31/34 3.2.2.13 14 3000 3000 300 2400 2550-2040-600-4800-4356-396 6150 7800 11415 7152 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32/34 15 IRR 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 8000/Wh 1.6%4.2%6.5%8.8%11.0%15.1%1.1%3.6%5.9%8.1%10.3%14.3%0.5%3.0%5.3%7.5%9.6%13.6%0.0%2.4%4.7%6.9%9.0%12.9%-0.5%1.9%4.2%6.3%8.3%12.2%-1.0%1.4%3.6%5.7%7.8%11.5%16 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 8000/Wh 3.3.2025 100GWh HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 33/34 17 2023E-2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 116.6 146.9 173.2 GW%h GWh GW%h GWh GW%h GWh GW 55.0 65.0 75.0 GW%h GWh GWh 41.8 70.9 106.1 4.1 2 3 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 34/34
展开阅读全文