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证 券研 究报告 2023 年 12 月 27 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 电 子行 业 2024 年 度策略 报告 边缘AI 快 速推进，MR 开启 新一 轮 消费 电 子创 新 周期 相关研究：1.Gemini Pro AI 2023.12.20 2.AI PC AI PC 2023.11.30 3.10 5%2023.11.28 行业评级：增持%1 3 12 1.58%11.32%15.03%-4.12%1.67%1.84%300 S0500521070001 Tel(8621)50293525 Email 88 10 7.96%300 17.24%1.28%13.74%12 22(TTM)37.45 10 20.53%10 15.56%2.76%PC Vision Pro XR ChatGPT AI AI AI AI AI AI PC AMD AI PC 2024 AI PC IDC AI PC PC 2027 85%PC vivo AI Counterpoint AI AI 2023 4%2024 8%2027 40%2023-2027 83%Vision Pro XR Vision Pro 2014 Apple Watch Vision Pro Vision Pro VR AR VR+VST AR VR AR Vision Pro Meta OPPO MR MR XR Vision Pro XR AIGC XR 12 22(TTM)-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%22-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-12()300 2 37.45 10 20.53%10 15.56%2.76%PC 2024 ChatGPT AI AI PC AI Vision Pro 2014 Apple Watch Vision Pro Vision Pro XR AIGC XR AI XR XR Vision Pro YWCXvMmRmPnMtNtQsPtMoPaQ9R7NsQmMtRsRlOqRoMkPoMvN8OqQwPvPrRmNNZpNtQ 3 正文目录 1.5 1.1.5 1.2 2024.9 1.3 Vision Pro.11 2 AI AI.13 2.1.13 2.2 AI.15 2.3 AI PC AI PC.16 2.4.17 3 Vision Pro XR.19 3.1 Vision Pro XR 10.19 3.2.20 3.3 Meta OPPO MR AIGC XR.21 4.22 5.22 4 图表目录 1.6 2 2023 12.22.6 3 PE TTM.6 4 10 PE TTM.7 5 2023 12.22.7 6 2023 12.22.7 7 2023 12.22.8 8 2023 12.22.8 9.10 10.10 11 PC.11 12.11 13.12 14 TWS.12 15 PC.12 16 TWS.12 17 VR.13 18 AR.13 19 Gemini Pro.13 20.14 21 AI.15 22 PC.16 23 AI PC.17 24 AI.18 25 Quest 3.22 26 AIGC.22 1 2023 12 22.8 2 2023 12 22.8 3 2023 12 22.9 4 XR.19 5 Vision Pro.21 5 1 1.1 2023 2023 12 22 3.44%300 17.24%300 1.28%13.74%2022 12 26 2022 12 26-2023 2 15 300 9.33pcts 2023 2 16-2023 3 16 300 2.05pcts 2023 3 17-2023 4 7 300 9.45pcts 2023 4 10-2023 5 12 300 12.45pcts B ST 2023 6253.25 8.51%155.65 60.12%IDC 2023 14.6%PC 29%2023 5 15-2023 7 14 2023 7 17-2023 8 25 2023 8 28-2023 11 15 Mate60 AI PC 2023 11 16-2023 12 22 6 1 Wind 2 2023 12.22 3 PE TTM Wind Wind 12 22(TTM)37.45 1 2023 1 3 29.53 26.82%2023/01/03-2023/12/22 22.16%2023/01/03-2023/12/22 17.00%10 20.53%10 15.56%2.76%10 31 3.44-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.00%300%37.45 05101520253035404550 7 4 10 PE TTM Wind 5 2023 12.22 6 2023 12.22 Wind Wind 12 22 294 61.64%20%72 15.09%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.00 13.7412.592.791.280.99-6.94-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.00 10.30 9.15-0.65-2.16-2.45-10.38-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.00 8 7 2023 12.22 8 2023 12.22 Wind Wind 1 2023 12 22%1 831526.BJ 445.00 1 688515.SH-U-57.85 2 002855.SZ 393.91 2 002866.SZ-57.05 3 688525.SH 335.87 3 688711.SH-54.40 4 838701.BJ 221.76 4 600898.SH ST-53.60 5 688256.SH-U 169.43 5 688261.SH-52.10 6 300857.SZ 158.18 6 002049.SZ-50.93 7 300735.SZ 156.38 7 688800.SH-49.44 8 002654.SZ 146.43 8 688693.SH-49.36 9 603629.SH 127.28 9 301251.SZ-48.45 10 837821.BJ 124.45 10 603290.SH-47.88 Wind 2 2023 12 22%1 002855.SZ 393.91 1 002866.SZ-57.05 2 838701.BJ 221.76 2 600898.SH ST-53.60 3 300857.SZ 158.18 3 603133.SH*ST-42.23 4 300735.SZ 156.38 4 603595.SH-33.40 5 603629.SH 127.28 5 301486.SZ-29.29 6 688260.SH 107.48 6 002841.SZ-25.44 7 832876.BJ 107.06 7 301329.SZ-24.24 8 833346.BJ 101.98 8 300647.SZ-22.30 9 301051.SZ 94.50 9 300916.SZ-18.61 10 002351.SZ 93.84 10 603633.SH-18.16 Wind 41336296350510152025303540-50-30-30-10-10 10 10 30 30 50 50 70 70 90231215 15360246810121416-60,-40-40,-20-20,0 0,20 20,40 40,60 60,130 9 3 2023 12 22%1 837821.BJ 124.45 1 301251.SZ-48.45 2 832491.BJ 86.49 2 600563.SH-44.75 3 002463.SZ 80.19 3 002484.SZ-30.84 4 300814.SZ 79.99 4 002384.SZ-30.35 5 300657.SZ 77.53 5 002938.SZ-22.27 6 300936.SZ 61.60 6 002579.SZ-19.59 7 603186.SH 49.94 7 603936.SH-17.94 8 002436.SZ 48.81 8 300903.SZ-16.62 9 300964.SZ 44.57 9 603989.SH-16.04 10 300476.SZ 38.97 10 000636.SZ-8.81 Wind 1.2 2024 2021 2021 2022 2021 11 2022 13.86 3.8%2022 12 12.07 9.5%2022 1 2022 3.3%2.34 2022 11 23%1.90 2022 11.92 1.859 The Elec 2021 11 3.34 2022 2022 8 2022 2.6 22.16%Digitimes OPPO vivo 2022 10 9 10 The Elec Digitimes 2022 2022 2022 6 8 PCB CPU 2023 TechInsights 3 2023 0.83%11.88 2024 3.4%12.29 11 TechInsights 2023 5%2024 3%2023 PC 2022 11 2023 PC 6.9%10 2023 PC 12.2%Counterpoint Research OEM/ODM PC 2023 PC 2023 2021 2023 7 2021 4 618 IDC 6 1-7 618 PC 13.0%6.5%11 IDC 5 2024 11 PC 12 Wind Wind 1.3 Vision Pro TWS 2010 iPhone 4 2016 14.73 2020 2021 5G 2021 IDC 2022 11.3%2023 3.5%2024 3.8%2016 9 TWS AirPods 2019 TWS TWS Counterpoint 2019 2020 TWS 160.87%94.17%2021 TWS 2021 2025 19.14%TWS TWS TWS PC 2011 3.63 2021 PC 3.488 2012 2022 14.93%2023 13.8%2.518 2024 3.4%PC TWS 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.001Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%0501001502002503003504001Q 21 2Q 21 3Q 21 4Q 21 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23/12 13 14 TWS IDC Counterpoint VR Meta quest 2 Quest pro Meta PS VR2 2023 VR Wellsenn XR 2023 710 28%2024 800 12.68%AR Wellsenn XR 2022 AR 42 Vision Pro XR XR 15 PC 16 TWS IDC Counterpoint ChatGPT Meta ChatGPT 3.03 4.95 7.25 10.19 13.02 14.37 14.73 14.66 14.03 13.73 12.92 13.60 12.06 11.63 12.08 12.24 74.41%63.68%46.44%40.55%27.69%10.41%2.52%-0.54%-4.29%-2.14%-5.86%5.23%-11.35%-3.50%3.80%1.40%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025/0.09180.20 0.461.22.332.9986.04117.86%130.00%160.87%94.17%28.67%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%180.00%012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025E/13 AI AI 17 VR 18 AR Wellsenn XR Wellsenn XR 2 AI AI 2.1 ChatGPT AI GPT GPT-4 Turbo tokens 2023 5 Palm 2 12 Gemini Gemini 19 Gemini Pro CMU 332 3435981029986710800131226263.31%74.34%72.07%-4.18%-27.99%12.68%64.00%100.15%-0.40-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.001.200500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 812222842508012030050.00%83.33%27.27%50.00%19.05%60.00%50.00%150.00%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.600501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 14 GPT-3.5 320GB FP16 5 A100 GPU GPU 80G 20 DataFunTalk 15 W U V W U V U m k V k n k m n U V 2.2 AI AI AI AI PC AI AI AI 10 AI Stable Diffusion 21 AI AI AI AI AI AI AI 16 AI AI Teams AI PC AI AI 2.3 AI PC AI PC IDC AI AI AI PC AI PC AI PC AI AI AI AI AI PC AI PC AI PC 22 PC IDC AI PC 12 15 Meteor Lake NPU CPU 10 25 PC X ELITE PC 130 AI AI PC 10 24 AI PC AI 17 11 Windows AI Studio Windows AI Studio Azure AI Studio Hugging Face AI AI SLM Windows AI PC 12 15 AI PC Galaxy Book 4 AI PC 2024 9 AI PC AMD Ryzen 8000 Lunar Lake 2024 AI PC 2024 AI PC IDC AI PC PC 2027 85%PC 23 AI PC IDC 2.4 LLM Siri AI iPhone 2023 12 18 12 LLM in a flash:Efficient Large Language Model Inference with Limited Memory iPhone 11 8 Gauss Gauss 2024 1 Galaxy S24 12 6 Gemini Nano Pixel8Pro Gemini Nano Gemini Nano Pixel8Pro Gboard Harmony OS4 AI OS OPPO ColorOS 14 AndesGPT vivo AI X100 24 AI Counterpoint AI AI AI/AI 19 AI AI Counterpoint AI AI 2023 4%2024 8%2027 40%2023-2027 83%3 Vision Pro XR 3.1 Vision Pro XR 10 2023 6 6 1 3 2023 WWDC Vision Pro 3499$2014 Apple Watch Vision Pro 4 XR Polar Rose 2010 2900 PrimeSense 2013 3.6 3D Xbox Kinect LuxVue 2014 4.5 Micro-LED Metaio 2015 3 3200 Faceshift 2015 Emotient 2016 1 2 Al Flyby Media 2016 DigitalRune 2016 3D SensoMotoric Instruments 2017 Vrvana 2017 3000 VR VST Fabric Software 2017 AIGC Akonia Holographics 2018 AR iKinema 2019 3D NextVR 2020 1 VR Spaces 2020 VR Limbak 2022 VR Lynx-R1 Simula One VR 2017 AR ARKit iPhone iPad AR 1 App Store 20 AR 14000 ARKit AR ARKit 14000+AR AR MR XR 10 VR 2010 XR 15 3D Persona VR VR AIGC XR Micro-LED VR 3D+3.2 Vision Pro Micro OLED 1150 2300 4K 4K HDR Vision Pro 2022 M2 Mac iPad MR R1 12 5 6 XR Vision Pro 12ms VR 30-40ms Vision Pro+Vision Pro Vision Pro VisionOS macOS iOS iPadOS iOS 3D Vision Pro iPhone iPad Vision Pro iPhone iPad Apple TV+Vision Pro Unity 21 5 Vision Pro Pico 4 Pro Meta Quest Pro Vision Pro HTC Vive XR Elite PS VR 2 Meta Quest 3/3799 7098 24850 7809 4499 3546/g 597 722 625 560 500 20W 3 45W 2.5 2 30W 2 PS5 2 XR2 XR2+M2+R1 XR2 PS5 XR LCD MiniLED Micro OLED LCD OLED Pancake 2P Pancake 3P Pancake Pancake Pancake FOV 105 106 110 110 100 4K+2k+8K 4K+4K+Type-C Type-C Type-C Type-C VR 3.3 Meta OPPO MR AIGC XR 6 1 Meta CEO instagram Meta 3 Quest 3 Quest 2 40%XR 2 Meta Quest 3/Quest 3 Quest 2 Quest 3 499.99 9 27 Connect 5 31 OPPO OPPO MR Glass OPPO MR Glass XR2+RGB Pancake 120Hz OPPO Supervooc MR MR MR VR AR XR ChatGPT AIGC AIGC 3D XR AIGC 3D 3D VR 22 25 Quest 3 26 AIGC 4 12 22(TTM)37.45 10 20.53%10 15.56%2.76%PC 2024 ChatGPT AI AI PC AI Vision Pro 2014 Apple Watch Vision Pro Vision Pro XR AIGC XR AI XR 5 XR Vision Pro 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
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