资源描述
1 行业观点 2023+AI 2024 1 2024 AI Day 2 24H1 C 3 24H2 100/500 1 24H2 2/T/PEEK 3 1 10 PEEK 2 1-2/3 IMU 4 10%/投资建议 风险提示 2.4 1.1.4 1.2AI.4 1.3.6.6 2.1.6 2.2.7 2.3 2024.10 2.4.10 0-1 T.12 3.1 PEEK.12 3.2 0-1.13 3.3 IMU.14 3.4.20.21.23 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.6 6.6 7.7 8.7 9“+”.8 10.8 11 2023.9 12 PowerFlow.10 13 M107.10 14.11 15.11 ZXDWzQqNtQnMsMnOsPpQqR8O8Q6MoMpPtRsRiNnMmOlOoMuNaQoOuMNZrMtNMYtQnN 3 16 PEEK.11 17.11 18.11 19.12 20.12 21 OptimusGen2 10.12 22 PEEK.12 23 PEEK.13 24.13 25.13 26.14 27.14 28.15 29/.15 30.15 31.15 32 ATI.16 33 IMU.16 34 IMU.16 35 MEMSIMU.17 36 IMU.17 37.17 38 70%.18 39 2D.18 40.18 41 3D.18 42.19 43 3D.19 44.20 45.20 46 2021.21 47 2022.21 48.21 49.21 50.22 4 一、核 心观 点：人形 机器 人量 产前 夕，未来星辰大海 1.1 1 1.2AI AI AI 1 80%22 3-PaLM 5620 2 GPT-4 3 RT-X 2 23 3-PaLM-E 5620 23 5 PaLM2 23 7 RoboticsTransformer2 RT-2-VLA web-scale 23 10 OpenX-Embodiment RT-X 23 2 ChatGPT 23 5 Microsoft OpenAI ChatGPT 23 8 WizardMath Evol-Instruct ARM 5 3 IFR 1 2 EVE 32 4 toB toC 2023 11 2 1 2 3C 3 6 5 1.3 1 2022 6 2 2023 B 1 2022 9 10 Optimus 2 6 AI DAY Twitter 二、未 来预 期展 望，推动量产的因子将成为持续催化剂 2.1 2023 7 7 2023 12 8 2.2 2023 1 19+2025 2020“+”8 9+2023 8 28 2023 4 10 2025 28 4km/h,9km/h 95%210g 170cm3 6kW 0.5%FS 0.03s MEMS MEMS 0.1 1 10s 0.3/h MEMS 1mm 1mm 0.3mm 0.1N/cm2240N/cm2(10g/cm224kg/cm2)5%10g 600W/kg 100N.m/kg 500-10000N 1500N/kg 9 3kg 9kg 900g 60W 200Tops 48V-100V 220Wh/kg GPU 1000 100 100 11 2 2025“”2027 11 2023 13/03/2023 2025 10 100 1000 20/04/2023 2023-2025 2025 100 100 100 5 300 21/05/2023 2023-2025 2025 23/05/2023 31/05/2023 2023-2024 15/06/2023(2023-2025)10 16/06/2023 2023 2025 2025 100 100 28/08/2023 2023 4 02/11/2023 2025 2027 21/12/2023 2.3 2024 2024 AIDay 2.4 Optimus A1 H1+12 PowerFlow 13 M107 RV 11 14 15 DesignofaHighlyDynamicHumanoidRobot 16 PEEK 1-2 3000 17 18 12 三、核 心产 业链 0-1 爆发在即，以 T 链为锚，寻找短板和高壁垒赛道 2024 1Q24 10/Optimus Optimus BOM+60%17%16%13%9%8%19 20 3.1 PEEK Optimus Gen2 10 PEEK Peek 21 OptimusGen2 10 22 PEEK Tesla Peek Peek PEEK 13 23 PEEK 3.2 0-1 25-50%90-99%24 10 T 4 T 25*10 T*4/1/2 Tesla Exlar 70%T 14 26 3.3 IMU 2 9 27 FindRF 4.3.1/15 28 29/leaderobot 30 31 Force-TorqueSensinginRobotics TeslaAIDay 16 ATI zoominfo 22 ATI 8820 32 ATI%F.S%F.S%F.S%F.S Tier1 ATI 22 8820 0.5 0.5 0.5/Tier2 ABB 8000/0.5 0.5/20 348 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 Tier3-0.1 0.5 1 2 ATI 4.3.2 IMU IMU IMU IMU UCLA Artermis 3DM IMU 33 IMU 34 IMU UCLA UCLA MEMS IDM 17 MEMS MEMS ASIC 35 MEMSIMU IMU 22.9%21.3%16.5%36 IMU MEMS 16.5%ADI/Sensonor/SiliconSensing/Bosch 22.9%STM 21.3%Colibrys/STM Bosch 37 EmcoreEG1300 EmcoreEG200/h 0.01 1 0.002 0.04 ppm 50 100 11*11*2 83.8*83.8*20.3 83.8*83.8*20.3 1 380 127 18 EmcoreEG1300 EmcoreEG200 1,100 28,129 12,554 4.3.3 3D 70%2D 2D 38 70%39 2D TeslaAIDAY TeslaAIDAY 3D 2D 3D 40 41 3D 2D 3D FaceID 3D TOF 70%30%19 42 3D 43 3D 3D 3D D435 RMSL201 A100S+AstraE Astra MiniS Kinect1.0 R200 D435 A100M AstraPro 720P30fps 480P30fps 1280 x80030fps 1280 x10247fps 480P30fps 480P30fps 1280 x72030fps 480P30fps 1280 x10247fps 640 x40060fps 640 x48030fps 480P30fps(H,V)85.2,58 46.0,68.2 60,47 67.9,45.3 60,49.5 57,43 59,46 85.2,58 60,48 60,49.5 0.110m 0.281m 0.251.5m 0.351m 0.83.5m 0.42.8m 0.110m 0.4-6m 0.68m 20mm2m 5mm1m 5mm1m 1mm1m 1mm1m 20mm2m 20mm1m 1mm1m 4.5w 2.5w 3.2w4w 2.2w 2.4w 2.5w 1.31.6w 4.5w 3.5W 2.4w 3D 20 44 3D dToF 3D 3D STMicron dToF iToF 3D iToF Kinect3D Azure Windows Xbox Lidar 3D 3D 3D iToF/dToF Lidar 3D iToF dTof+3.4 45*-95%70%-()180 60-3-512 30-160-(h)20,000 8,000-(N m/arcmin)10-370 1.34-54.09-(N m)40-1200 6.6-921-(db)65 60-(C)30 40-30 75%1 2021 82%7%11%21 46 2021 47 2022 QYResearch 48 IPO 50/100 24/10/RV 3/6/4 6/RV RV 15/1/RV 12/RV 6-9/四、投 资建 议 49/82%7%11%38%26%8%7%6%4%11%22 2024 10/VC 1 2 3 4 50()()PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E/809.34 17.00 22.87 31.36 42.03 48 35 26 19 1,076 25.73 31.62 39.29 48.29 42 34 27 22 269.68 2.47 2.24 3.55 5.22 109 121 76 52 241.25 1.55 1.17 1.72 2.47 155 207 140 98 215.36 5.82 8.12 10.57 13.46 37 27 20 16 104.65 2.29 2.82 3.58 4.58 46 37 29 23 687.98 23.43 25.44 30.31 37.23 29 27 23 18 83.23 1.48 1.79 2.59 3.49 56 46 32 24 104.81 2.60 3.14 3.93 4.85 40 33 27 22 68.88 1.22 1.95 2.77 3.73 57 35 25 18 53.39 0.66 0.87 1.08 1.43 80 61 49 37 49.94-15.30 0.00 0.00 0.00-3 70.99 0.47 1.15 1.53 1.80 150 62 47 40 36.13-0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00-57 49.11 0.60 0.36 0.59 0.82 82 137 84 60 36.56 0.63 1.13 1.48 1.65 58 32 25 22 37.02 1.01 1.18 1.54 2.03 37 31 24 18 63.35 0.90 1.01 1.42 1.90 70 63 45 33 47.86 0.91 0.95 1.17 1.47 53 51 41 33 1,593 43.20 49.96 63.72 80.47 37 32 25 20 Wind Wind 2023 12 26 23 五、风 险提 示 24 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%25 C3(C3 021-80234211 201204 1088 5 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 2028 18 1806
展开阅读全文