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新技术星辰大海，破局者涅槃重生2024年光伏年度策略报告|2024 01 08 S0210522050005 23/24 380/470GW 24 24%23/24 180/210GW 24 17%IRA+PPA+24 38GW 23/24 65/90GW 23/24 12/16GW 23 240 900GW 24/25 24 5/NP 23 826GW TCL 23/24 0.9/0.2 TOPcon SE poly 25.3%26%+HJT XBC 23 223GW 65/kg PERC TOPCon+0BB 0.93/0.98/1.08/1.05/W&23 24/25 14733 22-25CAGR 43%23-25 9771/11671/14971 25 CR4 84%24 TOPCon PERC 300+/kg TOPCon&LECO 24 23 70 24 24 N 23 10 95280t/d 36%23Q1-24Q4 22%/19%/3%/1%/6%/5%/4%/3%MBB SMBB XBC 0BB HJT BC 1 TCL 2 3 4 5 6 20YEVuNsPpMnMpRtQtOoRmN9PaO6MoMpPoMqMiNmMmNfQqQuN6MoOvMxNnPsQvPmQnP 3 2023 380GW 2024 470GW 24%2023 1-10 142.56GW 144.8%23 180GW 24 24 210GW 17%IRA PPA 23 Q2 5.6GW+20%24 8.5%7%IRA IRR 7.9%8.9%2024 38GW&24 16GW 4 GW IEA IRENA CEA CPIA BP 34 36 46 74 93 98 98 127 17524038047058010001400-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%-1001003005007009001100130015002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2030E 2035E YOY 2023 2023 11 60%40%2023 1-11 163.88GW 149.4%Q4 23 180GW 24 24 210GW 17%5 2023 1-11 GW PV Infolink 0%100%200%300%400%500%05101520251-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 GW IRA 2022 8 16 IRA IRA 5 12 IRA(PTC/ITC)ITC PTC IRA 2033 IRA 2023 H1 12GW 40%PPA LevelTen Energy 2021-2022 PPA 2023 PPA IRA 6 GW SEIA LevelTen Energy PPA/MWh 010203040506070Wind Blended Solar5.1 5.2 5.5 8.1 3.9 4.6 4.6 6.6 6.1 5.6-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%012345678921Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 GW YoY 2022 3 11 12 14 12 5.25%5.50%2024 100MW 23Q3 PPA 0.05/kwh 80%8.5%7%IRA IRR 7.9%8.9%2024 38GW 7 IRR leveltenenergy ESMAP CEIC NREL CSP FOCUS SEIA WoodMac TradingEconomics Energytrend MW 100.00/kwh 0.05 PPA 0.05 0.00%/0.00 1.00%0.40%h 2000 25 0%/W/0.009 25%80.00%8.00/Wdc 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85=8.5%7.85%9.09%10.50%12.15%=8.0%8.20%9.47%10.92%12.60%=7.5%8.57%9.85%11.34%13.07%=7.0%8.94%10.25%11.77%13.54%=6.5%9.32%10.66%12.21%14.03%2030 2019 NECP NECP SolarPower Europe NECP 2030 12 2019 NECP 2022 4 2019 2030 19 5 23 22 GDIP REPowerEU 2023-2024 65/90GW 8 2030 BP IEA IRENA CEA CPIA-100%-50%0%50%100%150%050100150200250300350200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2030E2035E(GW)YOY 2023-2024&12/16GW 9&-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%01234567892012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(GW)YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050602023E 2024E 2025E 2030E 2035E(GW)YOY BP IEA IRENA CEA CPIA 10 23 24 TOPCon HJT/XBC-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-012023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-172023-03-222023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-272023-10-102023-10-132023-10-182023-10-232023-10-262023-10-312023-11-032023-11-082023-11-132023-11-162023-11-212023-11-242023-11-292023-12-042023-12-072023-12-122023-12-152023-12-182023-12-212023-12-26 300 23 23 1 23 2-3 23 4-6 N 23 7-24 11 iFinD 2023 12 29 23 23 1 33.6%14.6%-1.6%1.6%23 2-3 TCL 13.5%-2.2%-22.6%-24.9%23 4-6 3.8%-0.6%-29.4%TCL-32.0%23 7-20.7%-26.8%-TCL-51.6%-56.4%CPIA 23 1-10/114/460GW/404GW/367GW 23 1-10 143GW 1.2:1 171GW 23 1-10/267%/269%/236%/215%22 12 CPIA 1144604043670100200300400500()GW GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-10 1 1.2 1 2 20/21/22/23 2.8/2.7/2.6/2.5g/W 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-10 48 55 87 143 58 66 105 171 140 187 330 456 242%284%314%267%161 227 371 460 279%345%354%269%135 198 331 404 233%301%315%236%125 182 295 367 215%276%281%215%23 23 12 27/65/kg 0.16/W/3.0/0.29/W/0.37/W 1.00/W 66%/40%/54%/46%Solarzoom 23 10/0.06/0.01/0.04/-0.07/-0.05/0.01/W 8 0.02/-0.03/-0.06/0.01/-0.11/-0.1/W 10 13 iFinD PVInfoLink Solarzoom 2023 12 27 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 57.66%45.90%37.60%43.15%34.14%29.32%72.17%57.67%45.88%24.76%22.59%23.06%TCL 23.01%23.21%23.12%26.51%21.97%22.99%16.12%17.38%18.74%14.14%16.84%17.76%18.11%17.92%19.72%16.18%16.42%16.97%17.91%19.08%19.61%17.95%16.92%16.83%13.79%15.18%15.77%19.11%19.35%19.89%12.39%13.45%14.93%15.91%14.53%14.78%/W 0.01.02.0/W 210/W 210/W 210/W 14 2023 240 2.5g/w 900GW 24/25 24 470GW 130+5.0/SMM 2023 2021A 2022A 2023E 18.0 23.0 42.0 10.5 10.5 20.5 13.5 18.5 26.0 7.6 20.0 30.0 9.0 13.0 25.5 1.9 9.0 9.0-5.0 10.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 6.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3-1.2 5.2-1.4 48.6 68.2 108.5 228.4()8.0 8.0 8.0 REC 1.8 1.8 1.8 OCI()4.0 4.0 4.0 Hemlock 1.8 1.8 1.8 15.6 15.6 15.6 83.8 124.1 244.0 g/W 2.7 2.6 2.5 GW 310 477 976 15 CPIA 23H1 PPT 23 NP&24 23 24 N P 24 N N NP N 23H1 7 35.68/kg 0.5ppbw 38.0%14.1%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.00%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3/050100150200250Jan/23Feb/23Mar/23Apr/23May/23Jun/23Jul/23Aug/23Sep/23Oct/23Nov/23-/kg NP/kg 24 23 826GW 22 539GW 53%TCL 23 190 180GW 23 24 23/3.4/5.1 2.5/6.3 0.9 23 4 2 24 4.0 24 4.2 23 11 5 16 TCL CPIA 2023 23 24 2022 2023E 2024E GW 240 380 470 1.2 1.2 1.2 98%98%98%GW 281 445 550 1GW 80 80 80 22464 35568 43992()24 24 24 kg 100 100 100 5.39 8.54 10.56 2.16 3.41 4.22 3.23 5.12 6.33 2.5 2.5 4.0&TQC 2.5 2.5 4.0 3.2 6.3 8.7 2.5 5.6 8 0.7 0.7 0.7-0.34 0.91 0.22-0.03-1.18-2.37 GW 2021 2022 2023E 105 133 190TCL 88 140 180 32.5 65 75 32 40 72 0 0 50 15 20.5 42.5 16 35 55 15 30 75 20 40 50 11.5 20 21 0 15 15 335 539 826-TOPCon 23 23 441GW SMM 23 9 TOPCon 421GW 23 TOPCon 441GW TOPCon 1500GW 150 30GW 435GW TOPCon 254GW 527GW TOPCon 1 TOPCon 25.3%SE 0.2%poly 0.5%+24 26%+2 23-25 12/W 11-15mg/W 5mg/W 17 SMM 2023 9 TOPCon TOPCon SE 0.20%poly poly 0.50%24 24 25 W 11-15mg/W 5mg/W TOPCon 11-15mg/W-HJT 23 33GW GW 23 33GW 2023 HJT 55 32.8GW 12.3GW 38%HJT 1.5GW GW HJT 1 23 26.49%/0.3%-0.5%0.6%3%-5%2 0BB 0.08/W 24H1 0.05/W 24+0.03/W 24 0.015-0.02/W 18 Solarzoom 2023 HJT 33GW HJT N P 1%1 HJT 26.5%2 25.2%3 25.3%25.5%0.60%1 0.3%2 0.5%3 0.6%-3%-5%0BB+0.03/W+0.08/W 24H1 0.05/W 24/0.01/W 0.03/W 24 0.015-0.02/W GW 1 12.3 22 2021/032 4.4 7 2023/053 4.2 5 2023/084 3.0 5 2023/035 2.4 3 2023/106 1.8 3 2022/117 1.8 3 2023/088 1.0 2 2023/019 0.8 3 2021/0710 0.6 1 2023/1011 0.3 1 2023/09 32.8 55-XBC BC BC IBC/TBC/HBC/HPBC IBC Sunpower IBC 25.2%23.5%-24.5%IBC PERC/HJT TOPCon IBC HPBC HBC TBC 25%-25.3%25%-26.5%24.5%-25.5%IBC BC BC 23 9 5 23H1 BC BC 5-6 BC BC 19 BC PERCP N P-PERCTOPConIBCHJT CIFSCdTeAsGa HPBCTBCHBCHJT/IBC TBC HBC HPBC25.2%(Sunpower)26.1%Fraunhofer 26.63%(Kaneka)28%23.5-24.5%24.5-25.5%25-26.5%25-25.3%1.0-2.0/W 1.0-2.0/W 1.2-2.2/W 0.24/W PERC TOPCon HJT PERC 130-m 130-m 90-m PERC TOPCon HJT PERC 3/GW 3/GW 5/GW 1.95/GW 23 223GW/23 75/72/65-70/60-65/35GW 22 76%/60%/57%/54%/289%68.4%22 5.9pct 23 223GW 23 12 27 210 PERC 182TOPCon 210HJT 1.00/1.02/1.25/W 65/kg PERC TOPCon+0BB 0.93/0.98/1.08/1.05/W 20 PV InfoLink 2023 12 27 1.0/W 23Q1 GW 23Q2 GW 23Q3 GW 23Q4 E GW 23 GW 22 GW 13.0 17.8 21.4 23.0 75.0 16.4%41.5-43.514.8%10.0 17.0 18.0 20.0 72 15.8%45+15.6%11.0 15.6 16.9 28.5 65-70 14.8%43 14.9%11.7()12.3()13.7()22-27()60-65()13.7%40-41 14.1%3.0 6.0 9.0 17.0 35.0 7.7%9 3.1%6.1 8.2 8.3 7.6-8.1 30-35 7.1%21 7.3%4.3 7.2 8.5 10.0 30+6.6%13.5 4.7%4.5 3.9 6.1 15.5 30.0 6.6%16 5.6%2.4 5.1 6.0 6.5 20.0 4.4%8.5 3.0%2.2 2.8 1.8 5.2-8.2 12-15 3.0%7 2.4%68.2 95.9 109.7 145.0 222.5 96.1%171.0 85.4%PERC TOPCon+0BB/W 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24/W 0.14 0.18 0.29 0.25/W 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14/W 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10/W 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04/W 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03/W 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04/W 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13/W 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02/W 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01/W 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06/W 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.56/W 0.93 0.98 1.08 1.05 21&N TOPCon SMBB 0BB XBC&220102030405060 23 23&24 23 23 23 10 39.86-40.7%-14.3%&-70%-20%30%80%130%180%0102030405060708090Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000&231113 1215 1099 0%50%100%150%200%250%02004006008001,0001,2001,400 MWh 23&24 23 ISEA 23 3.427GWh+145%ANIE 23 2.003GWh+211%23 24 21 24 10899140%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%02004006008001,0001,200 MWh 23 23 Energypriceindex EUPD Research ISEA ANIE Rinnovabili 33.0938.47020406080Berlin DE Germany EU27 Average All Average&21/KWh 0102030402018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e LCOEs LCOEs(EUR cents/KWh)LCOEs24 23 2022 5009 2025 14733 CAGR 43%1 2 3 2023-2025 9771/11671/14971 2025 CR4 84%2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1706 2506 3500 4500 6000 233 1531 2500 3000 4300490 850 1000 1200 1500 400 750 800 800 800 45 214 214 214 214657 657 657 657 657 3531 6508 8671 10371 13471 350 600 1100 1300 15003881 7108 9771 11671 14971 2900 5009 9237 11516 1473325 23 2022 23Q3 24 23 9 23Q4 1 23 10 T700 40%2 24 63.3%67.9%61.7%62.6%57.3%47.8%31.1%31.9%33.0%31.8%25.0%16.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E CR4 iFind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020406080100/26 N TOPCon 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4E 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2027E 2030EPERC BSF TOPCon HJT IBC N 24 TOPCon N TOPCon N P N TOPCon 2023 TOPCon 441GW 80%24 TOPCon 23 TOPCon 24 TOPCon TOPCon TOPCon PERC 300+/kg CPIA N TOPCon 55.3441.1627.1690.1716.6725.613.859.799.7116.8 123.8 124.801002003004005006007008002022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027ETOPCon HJT 2022-2027 TOPCon/HJT GW 27&LECO 20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 DOWA&LECO 24&23Q3 10 TOPCOn LECO TOPCon LECO 0.38%24 TOPCon LECO 11 14 LECO 24 TOPCon 2023.6.7 12 3000 2023.7.27 4 5000 1800 2025 28 2023 60 PVInfolink 23Q3 23 70 24 23 70 1 10GW 700GW 24 24 470GW 564GW 24 22Q3-23Q1 EVA&24 EVA N N-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000EVA/N-TOPCON 2020 2021 2022 2023E 10.5 13.0 20.0 25.0 3.0 3.9 6.3 7.3 1.7 2.9 5.3 7.5 0.9 2.1 2.7 3.7 0.6 2.6 3.0 5.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.2 0.5 0.7 3.0 3.0 0.5 3.1 7.3 9.5 19.2 30.4 51.7 70.0 24.8 32.2 53.2 GW 248 322 532 23 10 95280t/d 36%2023Q1-2024Q4 22%/19%/3%/1%/6%/5%/4%/3%29 0%20%40%60%80%100%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9/0%5%10%15%20%25%010020030040050060070080090023Q1E23Q2E23Q3E23Q4E24Q1E24Q2E24Q3E24Q4E/CPIA SMBB 0BB XBC HJT IBC 2019 PERC 23%24.5%2021 N TOPCon 24.0%HJT 24.2%IBC 24.1%2020 N,N MBB SMBB XBC 30 0.23mm 1mm/0.9mm 0.25mm 1mm/0.9mm 0.27mm 1mm/0.9mm 0.4mm 6mm 0.2mm 1.6mm 0.23mm 1.6mm 90MPa 0.3mm 6mm 0.35mm 6mm 0.23mm 1.2mm 0.25mm 1.2mm 0.27mm 1.2mm 70MPa 0.4mm 6mm 20102014 2016H12019 2022 2023 20072018 0.15mm 2mm 0.18mm 2mm 120MPa 0.15mm 5mm 0.2mm 5mm 2BB3BB4BB5BB 0.35mm 0.32mm 0.25mm 0.3mm 0.35mm 4mm 5mm 6mm 9-15BB16BB SMBB/0BB SMBB XBC/SMBB 0BB XBC 0BB HJT 0BB 0BB 0BB PERC/TOPCon/HJT 0.024/0.013/0.033/W HJT 0BB HJT 0BB HJT 31 mg/CPIA 0BB,CPIA,0204060801001201402022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2030TOPCon P P HJT SMBB 0BB XBC BC XBC XBC XBC 3BB 2018 MBB 5BB 6BB XBC 32 BC 33 1 TCL 2 3 4 5 6 34 24 35 36 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%37 1436 MT 20 200120
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