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|2024 01 24/2030-1.8%2022 1 2 70%1 24 15 PE 4%+2 24 12 PE%139 2.7 5082.4 7.3 4766.4 7.8%1m 6m 12m-9.7-15.8-24.1-6.1-0.1-1.1 1 1.21 2024-01-22 2 1.14 2024-01-15 3 2024-01-11 S1090518090005 S1090522080001 Jan/23 May/23 Sep/23 Dec/23 2.4 1.4 2.5 3.6.7 1.7 2.9 3.10 4.13.13 1.13 2.14 3.15.17 1.17 2.18.19 1.4 2.4 3 2010-2022.5 4.5 5 5-19.5 6/.5 7.6 8.8 9.8 10.9 1ZAZxOsPtQoPqOnOsPsNqRaQdNaQmOpPtRmQlOrRoPeRsQsP9PnNzRxNqMsNuOtPvM 3 11.10 12.12 13.12 14.13 15.13 16.14 17.14 18.15 19.15 20.16 21 PE.16 22 PEBand.19 23 PBBand.19 1 kg.7 2.8 3.9 4.10 5.10 6 2023.11 7 2023.11 8.12 9.14 10.14 11.16 12.17 13.18 14.18 4 1 1 2 2015 60%2018 200 300 20%瑧-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%价yoy 量yoy 金额yoy-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022常温酸奶 低温酸奶常温白奶 低温鲜奶 5 3 2010-2022 4 Wind Wind 2 1 5-19 2022 2.59 2030 2.24 CAGR-1.8%2027 2 7-14 5 5-19 6/-10%0%10%20%30%02004006008001,000伊利-液态奶收入（亿元）蒙牛-液态奶收入（亿元）伊利-液态奶收入yoy蒙牛-液态奶收入yoy20%3%-10%-15%-10%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E金典 特仑苏 安慕希 纯甄-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%-50 100 150 200 250 300 3502000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024E2026E2028E2030E5-19 岁（百万人）yoy（右轴）050100150200250300牛乳 奶酪 发酵乳、乳酸菌饮料 其他乳制品 6 3 1 24 7 2 50%30%21:35 3:33 0.1kg 1.9kg kg 1:10 18kg 01000000200000030000004000000500000060000007000000800000019851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017牛乳 加工乳 乳饮料 发酵乳 乳酸菌 7 1 kg 1 2014-2019 2022 60%80%2020 1 日本：中国倍数乳制品 原奶还原 乳制品 原奶还原Butter and Spreads 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.4Cheese 0.1 1.0 1.9 18.8Drinking Milk Products 15.4 17.1 23.5 23.9-Flavoured Milk Drinks 4.4 4.4 1.1 1.1-Milk 7.2 7.2 19.5 19.5-Cows Milk 7.2 7.2 19.5 19.5-Fresh Milk 1.8 1.8 19.3 19.3-Shelf Stable Milk 5.5 5.5 0.3 0.3-Goat Milk 0.0 0.0-Powder Milk 0.2 1.9 0.1 0.5-Milk Alternatives 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.7Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products 6.3 6.3 11.6 11.6other dairy 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4TOTAL 24.4 68.2液态奶 21.4 35.0 1.63干乳制品 3.0 33.2 11.06中国 日本 8 8 9 2022 2023 2024 2 2025 2030 2025 2025 9%30-50bp 2023 30bp 30-50bp 2023 30bp 70%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023伊利液态奶 蒙牛液态奶伊利常温白奶 蒙牛常温白奶0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%伊利 蒙牛 伊利 蒙牛 伊利 蒙牛 伊利 蒙牛常温白奶 常温酸奶 低温鲜奶 低温酸奶 9 2 ASP 2014-2016 2022-2023 2022-2023 3 Wind 10 Wind 24 2023 3.66/11%2021 2023 80%0123456723Q2 主要 是喷粉 带 来 的 存 货减 值损失 10 11 4 44.6 19000 34%45 16500 42%Wind 2021 3 2022 20%2022 2022 2023 2021 2022 17 2023 23H1 21H1 2023 2022 Q3 2023 5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 伊利股份 销售费用 197.74 210.7 215.38 193.15 229.08 124.25 116.39 116.19 费用率 24.90%23.40%22.20%17.50%18.60%22.00%18.30%17.60%广 告 营销 费 109.55 110.41 109.99 126.1 146.97 63.89 74.55 70.41 费用率 13.80%12.20%11.40%11.40%11.90%11.30%11.70%10.60%蒙牛乳业 销售费用 188.33 215.36 215.41 234.88 223.47 128.88 127.1 139.06 费用率 27.30%27.30%28.30%26.60%24.10%28.10%26.60%27.20%广 告 宣传 开 支 70.06 85 68.03 72.08 54.95 52.65 45.16 51.2 费用率 10.20%10.80%8.90%8.20%5.90%11.50%9.50%10.00%Wind 2023 H1 24-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02016-01-012016-05-202016-10-142017-03-032017-07-212017-12-152018-05-042018-09-212019-02-082019-06-282019-11-152020-04-102020-08-282021-01-222021-06-112021-10-292022-03-182022-08-052022-12-232023-05-122023-09-29生鲜乳价格（元/千克）生鲜乳同比变动（%）11 2023H1 8 20 6 14 2023 2023 4 10 6 2023/2023 7 2023 20 QQ 100%7 2023 2022 2023FIBA 2027/2023 FIFA 2022 C 2030/2026/2022/2018 FIFA,2022 12 2022 2019 22 22 147 11.9%21 72 8.2%22 12 13 Wind Wind 1 2024/2025 5%2 24/25 3 24/25 2025 2023 1pcts 0.6pct 8 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 伊利股份 销售费用 197.74 210.7 215.38 193.15 229.08 229.08 233.53 238.21 费用率 24.90%23.40%22.20%17.50%18.60%18.00%17.40%16.90%广 告 营销 费 109.55 110.41 109.99 126.1 146.97 140 140 140 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022洽洽 卫龙 劲仔0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022东鹏 农夫 香飘飘 13 费用率 13.80%12.20%11.40%11.40%11.90%11.00%10.50%10.00%蒙牛乳业 销售费用 188.33 215.36 215.41 234.88 223.47 253.2 262.25 271.76 费用率 27.30%27.30%28.30%26.60%24.10%25.80%25.40%25.10%广 告 宣传 开 支 70.06 85 68.03 72.08 54.95 72.08 72.08 72.08 费用率 10.20%10.80%8.90%8.20%5.90%7.30%7.00%6.70%wind 4 2022 41.1%38.5%29.1%2020 2023 H1 14 15 Wind Wind 1 2019 2022 66 41 26-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%液态奶 奶粉及奶制品 冷饮-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%液态奶 冰淇淋 奶粉 奶酪2022H1 2023H1 14 2019 19-22 23H1 16 9 2018 2019 2021 2022 2022H1 2023H1 18.13 39.35 30.67 27.64 16.3 6.17 0.62 3.3 13.51 15.5 10.13 6 2.21 2.69 4.72 4.48 1.31 2.25 4.94 7.1 2.48 1.53 0.19 0.32 13.01 21.71 5.79 8.75 2.38 7.57 38.92 74.15 57.16 57.9 30.3 22.31 Wind Wind 2022 2021 62 51 2023 30-40 25-30 17 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28.27 21.91 44.86 56.89 36.64 2.42 4.09 1.23 6.64 4.4 4.09 90.21 1.69 2.33 2.27 0.11 0.11 12.47 3.47 5.25 34.88 112.7 60.26 69.33 48.55 wind wind 2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1维护性资本开支 其他资本开支资本开支yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1维护性资本开支 其他资本开支资本开支yoy 15 18 19 Wind Wind 3 2017 70%70%4%-5%2022 29%23 PE 17 PE 14 2009-60-1040901401902018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022H1 2023H1经营性净现金流 资本开支分红及利息偿付 现金剩余-200204060801002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022H1 2023H1经营性净现金流 资本开支分红及利息偿付 现金剩余 16 20 21 PE Wind Wind VS 4%-5%11 22-25 CAGR 2022 VS 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022伊利 蒙牛01020304050602014-01-102014-05-192014-09-182015-01-222015-06-012015-10-022016-02-032016-06-132016-10-142017-02-202017-06-272017-10-272018-03-022018-07-102018-11-092019-03-182019-07-242019-11-222020-03-272020-08-032020-12-042021-04-132021-08-132021-12-162022-04-252022-08-262022-12-292023-05-092023-09-12蒙牛 伊利 17 CAGR 10%15X 70%4%12 1 2025 2030 2025 9%0.3-0.5%2023 3%-4%30bp 24Q1 2024 2023 4+24 15 PE+18 13 会计年度 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 营 业 总 收入(百 万元)110595 123171 127489 134514 140356 同比增长 14.2%11.4%3.5%5.5%4.3%营业利润(百万元)10230 10860 11969 13301 14679 同比增长 19.5%6.2%10.2%11.1%10.4%归 母 净 利润(百 万元)8705 9431 10256 11416 12617 同比增长 23.0%8.3%8.8%11.3%10.5%每股收益(元)1.36 1.47 1.61 1.79 1.98 P/E(倍)19.8 18.2 16.7 15.0 13.6 P/B(倍)3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2 23 OPM 50 24 OPM 30+24 12 PE 14 会计年度 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 营 业 总 收入(百 万元)88141 92593 98377 103974 109642 同比增长 16%5%6%6%5%营业利润(百万元)4301 4706 5546 6352 7318 同比增长 42%9%18%15%15%归 母 净 利润(百 万元)5026 5303 5042 5671 6405 同比增长 43%6%-5%12%13%每股收益(元)1.27 1.34 1.28 1.44 1.62 P/E(倍)13.6 12.9 13.6 12.1 10.7 EV/EBITDA 9.1 8.9 8.2 7.7 7.1 19 1 2 3 22 PEBand 23 PBBand 20 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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