20231212_平安证券_银行行业2024年年度策略报告：化风险降利提质兴实体转型突围_48页.pdf

2024 2023 12 12*20230613*20231009 喆 S1060520080003 YUANZHEQI S1060123020012 XUMIAO 2024 2024 24.9-26.1 10.5%-11.0%3-5 2024 10 BP 2024 1.2%vs 1.8%2023E 11 5.93%PB 0.51 15%1 2 3 2/48 EPS P/B 2023-12-8 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 601658 4.37 0.86 0.90 0.98 1.07 0.63 0.55 0.51 0.47 002966 6.41 1.07 1.29 1.49 1.72 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 601128 6.74 1.00 1.25 1.52 1.85 0.82 0.78 0.70 0.62 002142 20.82 3.49 4.04 4.79 5.56 0.90 0.80 0.69 0.59 601838 10.98 2.63 3.30 3.92 4.55 0.75 0.66 0.56 0.48 600919 6.54 1.72 1.69 2.01 2.35 0.58 0.58 0.51 0.45 601577 6.71 1.69 1.98 2.30 2.65 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 601916 2.58 0.50 0.56 0.64 0.74 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 wind YWFUyRsPpMrQtNmPmRtMrQ9P9R8OsQqQsQsRfQrQnPlOpOrMaQmMuMvPqMpMuOrRsM 3/48.7 1.1.7 1.2.8 1.3.10.14 2.1.14 2.2.15 2.3.19.23 3.1.23 3.2.24.30 4.1.30 4.2.31 4.3.39.43 5.1.43 5.2.43 5.3.44 5.4.44 5.5.44 5.6.45 5.7.45 5.8.46.47 4/48 1 2023.7 2 PPI.7 3 PMI.7 4.7 5 2023.8 6 2023 50BP.9 7 LPR.9 8.9 9 2023 1-10.9 10 2023 10 2.47.10 11 2023 1-10.10 12 2024 36.7-37.9.10 13 2024 24.9-26.1.10 14.11 15 2023.12 16 2023.13 17.13 18.13 19.14 20.14 21.15 22.16 23-2023H1.17 24.18 25.19 26.20 27.20 28.21 29.21 30 2024.22 31.22 32.23 33 2022.25 5/48 34 2022.25 35.25 36.26 37.27 38.27 39“”.27 40“”.28 41“1+30”.28 42.29 43.29 44 2023 300.30 45 2023.31 46.31 47 300 28.8pct.32 48 2012 A.32 49 2011-2013.32 50 2011-2013.32 51 2011-2013.33 52 2011-2013.33 53 12 4 PMI.33 54 12 4.33 55.34 56 300 21.1pct.34 57 14 A.34 58 2013-2015.35 59 2013.35 60 2014.35 61 14 2 M2.35 62“”.36 63.37 64.37 65.37 66.38 67.38 68.38 69 PB.39 6/48 70.39 71.39 72 ROE 22A.40 73 23H1.41 74.42 7/48 1.1 GDP 4.9%1.4%1 2023 1-10 6.90%8-9 2 2023 1-10 2.9%0.2 3 2023 1-10 6.0%2023 CPI PPI 10 CPI 0.2%PPI 2.6%0.1 1 2023 2 PPI wind wind 1-11 PMI 10 PMI 11 PMI 49.4%PMI-0.2pct/+0.1pct/-0.1pct 50.5%/48.8%/47.8%6 62.2%1 9.8pct/10.1pct/12.0pct 55.1%/58.1%/64.5%3 PMI 4 wind wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2004-032005-092007-032008-092010-032011-092013-032014-092016-032017-092019-032020-092022-032023-09:GDP:-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2014-012014-082015-032015-102016-052016-122017-072018-022018-092019-042019-112020-062021-012021-082022-032022-102023-05:CPI:PPI:40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%2018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%2010-062010-122011-062011-122012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-06:8/48 1.2 2024 LPR 5 2023 2023 12 8 50BP 1 LPR 20BP 5 LPR 10BP 3 27 9 156 20 8 21LPR10 30 7 2411 2720232023 3 270.255%2023 9 150.255%7.4%6 20 1LPR 5 LPR10BP 8 211 LPR10BP 5LPR 9/48 6 2023 50BP 7 LPR Wind Wind 2023 10 20.48 1.78 3.15 10 1825 1.25 4234 8 9 2023 1-10 Wind Wind 2023 10 9.3%0.3 23 10 31.18 2.47 1-10 2.00 1.67 7.52 1.33 5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%2014-042014-092015-022015-072015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-062023-11:3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%5.0%2019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09:(LPR):1:(LPR):5 10.9 10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.0010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019/0419/0719/1020/0120/0420/0720/1021/0121/0421/0721/1022/0122/0422/0722/1023/0123/0423/0723/10%-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,0002019 1-10 2020 1-10 2021 1-10 2022 1-10 2023 1-10-10/48 10 2023 10 2.47 11 2023 1-10 Wind Wind 2024 24 23 23.5 35.7 11.0%10.1%24 24.9-26.1 36.7-37.9 10.5%-11.0%9.7%-10.0%12 2024 36.7-37.9 13 2024 24.9-26.1 1.3 9.3 891011121314010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00019/0419/0719/1020/0120/0420/0720/1021/0121/0421/0721/1022/0122/0422/0722/1023/0123/0423/0723/10:%(50,000)-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0%5%10%15%20%25%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E%-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E(亿元)11/48 14 12/48 15 2023 2023 7 8 29 663 11 24 1000 600 10 31 1 2 3 4 13/48 16 2023 3 24.1%36.8%17 18 wind wind 1%6%11%16%21%26%31%2021-092022-032022-092023-032023-09%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09%14/48 10 BP 2023 2024 1.2%vs 1.8%2023E 2.1 LPR 2023 9 LPR LPR 3.34pct/0.40pct 37.4%/5.6%LPR 3.64 57.1%19 20 wind wind 3.8%4.3%4.8%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.8%2015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-09:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09LPR LPR LPR 15/48 21 2.2 1 2 LPR 3 10 BP 24 8BP 2024 2023 5 LPR 24 8BP 3.1 1 5 LPR 2023 10BP 80%2024 1BP 0.5 2 73BP 60%2024 7 BP 3 16/48 22 wind ROE ROE ROE-0.01%-0.6%-1.1%-0.1%-0.08%-3.1%-5.9%-0.7%-0.09%-3.6%-6.9%-0.8%-0.02%-0.6%-1.2%-0.1%-0.09%-3.5%-6.6%-0.8%-0.11%-4.1%-7.9%-1.0%-0.01%-0.6%-1.3%-0.1%-0.08%-3.5%-7.1%-0.8%-0.10%-4.1%-8.4%-0.9%-0.01%-0.6%-1.2%-0.1%-0.08%-3.2%-6.8%-0.8%-0.09%-3.8%-8.0%-1.0%-0.01%-0.4%-1.0%-0.1%-0.06%-2.4%-5.4%-0.6%-0.07%-2.9%-6.4%-0.7%-0.01%-0.5%-1.6%-0.2%-0.08%-3.0%-8.7%-1.1%-0.09%-3.5%-10.3%-1.3%-0.01%-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.07%-1.8%-3.3%-0.6%-0.08%-2.1%-3.9%-0.7%-0.01%-0.4%-0.9%-0.1%-0.05%-2.0%-5.2%-0.6%-0.06%-2.4%-6.1%-0.7%-0.01%-0.3%-1.0%-0.1%-0.04%-1.8%-5.3%-0.4%-0.04%-2.1%-6.3%-0.4%-0.01%-0.4%-0.7%-0.1%-0.06%-2.2%-3.9%-0.6%-0.07%-2.6%-4.7%-0.7%-0.01%-0.4%-1.0%-0.1%-0.05%-2.0%-5.6%-0.5%-0.06%-2.4%-6.6%-0.6%-0.01%-0.3%-0.8%-0.1%-0.04%-1.7%-4.3%-0.5%-0.05%-2.0%-5.1%-0.6%-0.01%-0.3%-0.8%-0.1%-0.04%-1.5%-4.2%-0.4%-0.04%-1.8%-4.9%-0.5%-0.01%-0.3%-1.0%-0.1%-0.07%-1.9%-5.7%-0.7%-0.08%-2.3%-6.7%-0.9%0.00%-0.1%-0.5%0.0%-0.02%-0.8%-2.6%-0.3%-0.02%-0.9%-3.1%-0.3%-0.01%-0.4%-0.8%-0.1%-0.05%-2.2%-4.5%-0.5%-0.06%-2.7%-5.3%-0.6%0.00%-0.1%-0.3%0.0%-0.02%-0.8%-1.5%-0.2%-0.02%-0.9%-1.7%-0.3%0.00%-0.1%-0.2%0.0%-0.01%-0.5%-0.9%-0.1%-0.02%-0.6%-1.1%-0.2%0.00%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%-0.03%-1.4%-2.4%-0.3%-0.03%-1.6%-2.9%-0.3%-0.01%-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.04%-1.5%-3.2%-0.5%-0.05%-1.8%-3.7%-0.6%0.00%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.2%-2.5%-0.4%-0.03%-1.4%-3.0%-0.5%-0.01%-0.2%-0.6%-0.1%-0.03%-1.3%-3.2%-0.4%-0.04%-1.5%-3.8%-0.5%-0.01%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.05%-1.9%-2.8%-0.6%-0.05%-2.2%-3.3%-0.7%0.00%-0.1%-0.2%0.0%-0.01%-0.5%-1.1%-0.1%-0.02%-0.6%-1.2%-0.1%-0.01%-0.2%-0.9%-0.1%-0.03%-1.1%-5.1%-0.3%-0.04%-1.3%-6.1%-0.3%-0.01%-0.3%-0.9%-0.1%-0.04%-1.7%-5.0%-0.5%-0.05%-2.1%-5.9%-0.6%-0.01%-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.03%-1.7%-3.4%-0.3%-0.03%-2.0%-4.0%-0.3%-0.01%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.3%-2.9%-0.3%-0.04%-1.5%-3.4%-0.4%-0.01%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.4%-2.8%-0.3%-0.03%-1.6%-3.3%-0.4%-0.01%-0.3%-0.8%-0.1%-0.04%-1.8%-4.3%-0.5%-0.05%-2.2%-5.0%-0.6%-0.01%-0.4%-0.7%-0.1%-0.04%-2.1%-3.7%-0.4%-0.04%-2.5%-4.3%-0.5%-0.01%-0.3%-1.1%-0.1%-0.03%-1.9%-6.1%-0.4%-0.04%-2.2%-7.2%-0.5%-0.01%-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.03%-1.5%-3.1%-0.3%-0.04%-1.7%-3.7%-0.4%-0.01%-0.3%-0.8%-0.1%-0.03%-1.4%-4.5%-0.3%-0.04%-1.7%-5.3%-0.4%0.00%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00%-0.1%-0.3%0.0%-0.02%-0.7%-1.7%-0.2%-0.03%-0.8%-2.0%-0.2%-0.01%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.6%-2.6%-0.4%-0.04%-1.9%-3.1%-0.4%-0.01%-0.2%-0.4%0.0%-0.03%-1.2%-2.0%-0.2%-0.03%-1.4%-2.4%-0.3%0.00%-0.2%-0.4%0.0%-0.02%-1.0%-2.0%-0.2%-0.03%-1.2%-2.4%-0.3%0.00%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%-0.03%-1.0%-2.1%-0.3%-0.03%-1.1%-2.5%-0.3%-0.01%-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%-0.05%-1.9%-3.3%-0.4%-0.06%-2.3%-3.9%-0.4%-0.01%-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%-0.04%-1.9%-3.4%-0.4%-0.05%-2.3%-4.0%-0.4%-0.01%-0.5%-1.0%-0.1%-0.07%-2.7%-5.6%-0.7%-0.08%-3.1%-6.7%-0.8%-0.01%-0.6%-1.2%-0.1%-0.08%-3.2%-6.6%-0.8%-0.09%-3.8%-7.8%-0.9%-0.01%-0.3%-0.8%-0.1%-0.05%-1.8%-4.3%-0.5%-0.06%-2.2%-5.1%-0.6%-0.01%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.4%-2.7%-0.4%-0.04%-1.6%-3.2%-0.4%-0.01%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.03%-1.4%-2.9%-0.3%-0.04%-1.7%-3.4%-0.4%17/48-1.04pct/-0.01pct/+0.65pct/+0.29pct 53.2%/39.1%/46.1%/34.7%23-2023H1 1 1 2 3 4 5 wind 30/50/100BP 2024 8BP 3.2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%18/48 24 1 1 2 3 4 5 wind 14“”13 16 21 22+10.2%/-4.5%/+5.0%/+3.1%6.5pct/11.5pct/7.8pct/1.9pct 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13 16 21 22-4.2pct/-8.6pct/+2.2pct/-7.3pct+12.3%/+1.1%/+7.7%/+0.4%25 12 56BP 50BP 2012 2013%2012 2013 2012 2013 2.84%2.69%-0.15 16.7%10.2%-6.5%16.5%12.3%-4.2%2.57%2.53%-0.04 14.2%8.9%-5.2%13.4%10.3%-3.0%2.69%2.54%-0.15 22.2%12.7%-9.4%25.0%17.9%-7.1%2.96%2.79%-0.17 25.3%13.7%-11.6%25.3%14.2%-11.0%14.11-15.10 1 165BP 150BP 2015 2016%2015 2016 2015 2016 2.78%2.25%-0.53 7.0%-4.5%-11.5%9.7%1.1%-8.6%2.54%2.03%-0.50 3.2%-7.8%-11.0%5.2%-1.7%-6.9%2.70%2.19%-0.51 15.5%0.6%-14.9%19.7%5.6%-14.1%2.87%2.32%-0.54 13.9%5.3%-8.6%18.2%10.2%-8.0%2019-2020 1 LPR 46BP 5 LPR 20BP 2020 2021%2020 2021 2020 2021 2.09%2.01%-0.09 12.8%5.0%-7.8%5.6%7.7%2.2%1.97%1.91%-0.06 10.1%5.3%-4.8%4.7%8.2%3.5%2.22%2.10%-0.12 17.6%2.9%-14.7%6.9%5.3%-1.5%2.07%1.99%-0.08 17.3%9.8%-7.5%7.8%13.1%5.3%2022 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 5-15BP 2021 2022%2021 2022 2021 2022 2.01%1.88%-0.12 5.0%3.1%-1.9%7.7%0.4%-7.3%1.91%1.80%-0.11 5.3%3.9%-1.4%8.2%-0.2%-8.3%2.10%1.96%-0.14 2.9%0.6%-2.2%5.3%0.4%-4.9%1.99%1.87%-0.12 9.8%4.9%-4.9%13.1%4.5%-8.6%wind 5 9 21 2.3 2023 10BP/15BP 9BP 3.7/7.8 2024 1.2%vs 1.8%2023E 2021 2021 6+1 2022 4 10 1(LPR)10 20/48 26 2022 15 22 9 5BP 10BP 15BP 10BP 2023 23 6 2-5 10-25BP 23 2 27 2015 10%22 9(%)23 6%0.3 0.25 0.2 0.2 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.75 1.65 1.65 1.55 2.25 2.15 2.05 1.85 2.75 2.6 2.45 2.2 2.75 2.65 2.5 2.25 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 6 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.55 0.45 0.45 0.45 1.1 1 1 1 14 10BP/15BP 9BP 21/48 3.7/7.8 28 假设活期存款利率下降 10BP、定期存款利率下降 15BP 0.09%3.66%7.79%0.10%4.02%8.26%0.08%2.89%6.82%区域性银行 0.08%3.49%7.08%wind 29 12 56BP 50BP 2012%2013%17.7%13.0%-4.7%14.8%11.4%-3.4%26.1%17.5%-8.6%25.4%15.9%-9.5%14.11-15.10 1 165BP 150BP 2015%2016%2.4%3.1%0.7%0.7%1.5%0.8%5.2%5.5%0.3%11.3%10.6%-0.7%2020 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 2020%2021%0.4%12.1%11.8%1.6%11.0%9.4%-3.3%13.7%17.1%2.5%16.2%13.7%2022 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 5-15BP 2021%2022%12.1%7.0%-5.1%11.0%5.0%-6.0%13.7%9.9%-3.8%16.2%13.7%-2.5%22/48 2024 2024 2024 1.2%vs 1.8%2023E 30 2024 31-0.76%-0.75%-0.74%-0.73%-0.72%1.66%-3.1%-2.4%-1.7%-1.0%-0.3%1.68%-1.6%-1.0%-0.3%0.4%1.1%1.70%-0.2%0.5%1.2%1.8%2.5%1.72%1.2%1.9%2.6%3.3%3.9%1.74%2.6%3.3%4.0%4.7%5.4%224%223%222%221%221%拨备覆盖率 23/48 3.1 60%32 23H 对公贷款结构较年初变化 基建类贷款占比 制造业贷款占比 批发及零售行业贷款占比 房地产行业贷款占比 22A 23H1 变动比例 22A 23H1 变动比例 22A 23H1 变动比例 22A 23H1 变动比例 59.2%57.8%-1.38%15.0%15.9%0.96%4.4%4.8%0.37%7.1%6.5%-0.55%55.7%55.1%-0.66%18.9%19.8%0.93%7.4%7.4%-0.01%8.0%7.3%-0.68%50.5%48.9%-1.66%15.2%16.4%1.26%9.6%10.0%0.37%7.5%7.0%-0.59%54.1%53.9%-0.24%20.7%21.0%0.28%0.0%0.0%0.00%12.9%12.1%-0.85%49.3%48.8%-0.57%17.8%18.6%0.82%5.4%6.0%0.56%11.0%9.9%-1.17%49.1%47.1%-2.08%15.3%16.1%0.79%6.7%7.3%0.58%7.9%7.9%0.02%39.2%39.1%-0.13%19.6%21.3%1.74%7.6%7.2%-0.42%15.8%13.8%-2.02%45.3%44.5%-0.83%16.6%17.4%0.77%7.0%7.5%0.51%11.0%10.3%-0.65%44.1%44.0%-0.06%18.4%19.5%1.05%12.2%12.3%0.07%16.9%16.3%-0.62%39.4%40.4%1.01%22.2%22.4%0.16%10.0%9.6%-0.44%13.5%13.6%0.04%39.0%38.3%-0.72%18.2%19.8%1.63%6.2%6.2%0.05%12.4%11.6%-0.81%40.0%40.7%0.75%19.6%20.0%0.34%8.3%8.8%0.51%9.2%8.2%-1.07%7.8%7.4%-0.35%16.9%16.9%0.03%11.5%10.5%-1.04%26.1%23.7%-2.47%48.6%48.5%-0.07%14.6%14.9%0.34%9.4%9.1%-0.29%7.2%6.2%-1.00%30.4%30.9%0.46%22.0%21.5%-0.49%17.0%17.0%-0.01%16.9%16.1%-0.82%45.8%44.5%-1.28%13.3%14.8%1.48%9.6%9.6%-0.02%10.9%10.4%-0.51%43.2%42.7%-0.53%8.9%9.8%0.87%8.5%8.9%0.32%16.8%14.7%-2.09%39.9%40.9%1.02%22.6%23.3%0.67%12.6%11.6%-0.96%10.4%9.5%-0.97%39.0%40.4%1.42%29.2%28.8%-0.41%18.2%18.2%-0.07%14.9%15.4%0.48%56.5%58.1%1.64%11.8%11.6%-0.16%10.6%10.0%-0.57%6.1%5.6%-0.51%62.4%66.2%3.79%14.9%14.1%-0.74%6.2%5.8%-0.46%9.6%7.5%-2.09%39.1%40.3%1.24%15.6%14.1%-1.49%11.3%12.0%0.71%4.5%4.3%-0.24%24/48 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