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1 投资策略 2024 5.5G/6G AI+行业观点 AI 1 AI+AI 2 0-1 10%+3 800G+20%+AI AIGC 5G RedCap 1 L1/2 L3 ADAS 2 OS 3 4G 5G/V2X 5G-A+23 5G 318.9 30%5G-A 风险提示 5G 2.5 AI.8 2.1 AI.8 2.2 0-1.10 2.3 AI.12 2.4.13+.13 3.1.14 3.2.15 3.3+.17 3.4.18.18 4.1.18 4.2.20 4.3.22 5G 5G-A.22 5.1.23 5.2 5G-A.24 5.3.27.27.28 1+.5 2 5G.6 3/IT.6 4/1000.7 5 L2.7 6 CAGR 50%.8 7 CAGR 20%.8 8.8 ZXCXxOmRpMnMpRtQtOqPpObR8Q7NoMpPmOmPfQqRmOlOpNrR8OoPpPvPnPmNvPqMqN 3 9 23 AI 120.8 10.9 11 CPU OS.9 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.11 16 IDC 95.12 17.12 18 NVLink 800G.12 19 Superpod.12 20.13 21 SiP.13 22 2Q23 118.13 23.13 24.14 25“”.14 26+.14 27.15 28.15 29 PaaS AI.15 30.16 31.16 32 CAGR 30%.16 33.16 34.17 35.17 36.17 37 5G FWA.18 38 24 5GRedCap.18 39 Hybrid AI.18 40 AI.18 41.19 42.19 4 43%.19 44.19 45 BU.20 46.21 47.21 48 23 L1/2 24 L3.21 49 OS%.22 50.22 51 5G.22 52.23 53 2011.23 54 23H1 IaaS top3.24 55 23H1 PaaS top5.24 56.24 57.24 58.25 59 R18 5G-A.25 60.26 61.26 62.26 63 ITU.27 64.27 65.28 5 一、关 注通 信 计算 加速 融合 下的 新机 遇 2023 在 AIGC ICT AI+X86 ARM“+”GPU CPU+GPU CUDA AI+“”1+5G 2023 5G 5G 40%5G 5G 4G 5G IT 2022 10%-15%1000 2022 10%2022 L2 25%25 50%6 2 5G GSMA 21 12 5G 3/IT IDC Gartner 7 4/1000 IoT Analytics 5 L2 IDC 2024 5.5G/6G AI+8 二、中 心侧 AI 算力关注细分 技术升级和国产替代机会 AI IDC 1&AI+AI 2 0-1 10%+3 800G 2.1 AI CAGR 50%26 ZFLOPS IDC 21 155.2 EFLOP 2026 1271.4 EFLOPS 2021 47.7 EFLOPS 2026 111.3 EFLOPS CAGR 18.5%6 CAGR 50%7 CAGR 20%IDC IDC AI CSP 23 Q1/Q2 24 AI trend force 23 AI 120 GPU 60-70%8 9 23 AI 120 IDC trend force AI GPU FPGA ASIC 02004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003502014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050010001500200025002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026EAI YoY 9 910 A100 CANN AI 10 910 320 TFLOPS(FP16)2019 310W 310 8TFLOPS A800 A100 70%2022-A100 80GB 624 TOPS(INT8)312 TFLOPS(FP16)2020 300W H100 3026 TOPS(INT8)1513 TFLOPS(FP16)2022 300-350W AMD AMD MI250 362 TFLOPS FP16 2021 560W 1-2-+&Kunpeng IT PC openEuler OS OS 11 CPU OS IHV 10 12 2.2 0-1 IDC PUE 23 24 10%25 50%11 13 14 15 IDC CAGR 56.6%IDC 22 10.1 2027 95 CR3 70%80%12 16 IDC 95 17 IDC IDC 2.3 AI GPU 400G/800G/1.6T 18 NVLink 800G 19 Superpod 24 B100 800G 1.6T SiP 5 LPO/CPO 24 2028 800G 1.6T 30%01020304050607080901002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 38%30%3%1%28%13 20 21 SiP Lightcounting Lightcounting AI 2021Q1 IDC 2022 365 18.7%2021 9PP 22.6%15.7%10G/40G 400G/800G IDC 2022 200/400GbE 300%1Q23 200/400GbE 141.3%Dell Oro Group 800G 2025 400G ODM 22 2Q23 118 23 IDC IDC 2.4/)三、边 缘侧 新技 术+场景 带领 连接 层 走出 底部，工 业互 联网 步入 发展 快车 道 IoT-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50204060801001201402015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Arista HPE 14 AnaIytics 21 122 2025 270 MTA 2030 15 IoT 1250 10%10%24 25 IoT analytics 3.1 26+wind 1.0 Matter IoT 2021 8.95 11.7%2.3 5800 12.75%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050100150200250300350400 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%05101520252021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-08%15 27 28 CSA IDC 3.2 PaaS 2023 23 12 153 62 40%2023 10 2022 4.45 14.53%GDP 3.64%20223 4.79 GDP 3.7%29 PaaS AI AI AI+AI 2023 1.2 37%31%00.511.522.5010002000300040005000600070002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 16 30 31 2022 2022 24 AI PaaS APP 2022 28.6 22.3%IDC 2025 56.1 2022-2025 CAGR 30%CR6 30%AI 32 CAGR 30%33 IDC IDC 2021 3829.35 33%+16.23%2022 47.6 185.15 2028 278.7 MOXA Belden 4534.383829.352146.121165.36 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%01020304050602020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 17 34 35 80%MOXA 20%HMS 2022 3.3+2023 5G 60%5G NB-IoT 4G Cat.1bis 4G 2027 4G 36 counterpoint FWA 5G RedCap FWA 5G FWA 2022 5G FWA 760 23 5G RedCap 24 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 18 37 5G FWA 38 24 5GRedCap 2022 22 5G RedCap AI AI AI+39 Hybrid AI 40 AI Transforming the Connected Intelligent Edge to Realize 5G s Full Potential 3.4 AI AIGC 5G RedCap/四、智 能汽 车：竞争战略控制 点 从 三电成本转向智能化差异 4.1+2022 1150+24.7%50%2030 60%2030 60%19 41 42 2023 1-10 628.5 30%53.3%43%44 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 02000400060008000100001200014000 M5 M7 20 45 BU 4.2 ADAS L3+ADCU 50%4G 5G 21 46 L3 24 L1-L2+23 L3 24 ADAS ADCU 47 48 23 L1/2 24 L3 Nov-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 ICV Tank OS OS OS OS AR-HUD 66.69%5G 32.75 22 49 OS%50 IDC counterpoint 2022 4.3 五、5G 投资转向需求驱动，新型基础设施 5G-A、卫星通信建设加速 2023 5G 51 5G Wind Qualcomm 010203040506070809019992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021PalmOS Windows Mobile SymbianBlackBerry OS iOS Android 23 52 5G Capex/Revenue 5G 3/4G 2023 10 5G 321.5 5G 60%5G 60 5.1 2022 10%2008 12 5G 2011 5G 4G 5G Capex/Revenue 3G 41%4G 34%5G 2021 22%20%53 2011 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0500100015002000250030003500400045005000 22%34%41%24/IDC 5G 54 23H1 IaaS top3 55 23H1 PaaS top5 IDC IDC IaaS top3 1326 19.6%84.1%29.3%422 80.5%DICT 26.4%866 HBN 43%56 57 1H23 1H22 459 281 63%422 234 80%255 187 36%497 492 1%241 22 453/5.2 5G-A 2024 DellOro Group 2023 2%2024 5G 1 Intel Xilinx CPU FPGA TI ADI AD/DA PLL 2/Qorvo Skyworks 5G Finisar Acacia 25G 3 40%AWS AWS 050100150200250300350400450500 2021 2022 2023E 25 5G 4 5G 5G 60%58 DellOro Group 5.5G 5G UCBC RTBC HCS R18 2024Q1 5.5G 2025 5G-A 59 R18 5G-A 5G G60 T/R 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 Ciena 26 60 Bryce Tech 2023 SpaceX OneWeb 66.3%55.3%12.4%22 24 61 62 UCS 23 1 1 UCS 23 1 1 G60 2021 4 12992 2022 G60 12000+1296 25 50 600 2000 66.3%21.2%2.8%2.0%7.8%12.4%55.3%9.1%4.1%19.2%27 63 ITU 64 GW-2 GW-A59 2020.09.11 2020.09.11 6912 6080 36 36 36 36 16 40 60 48 48 48 48 30 50 60 km 1145 1145 1145 1145 590 600 508 deg 30 40 50 60 85 50 55 L/S/C/X/Ku/Ka/Q L/S/C/X/Ku/Ka/Q 2022.05.24 01 2022.10.18 54 02 2022.10.18 ITU 5.3 六、重 点标 的/UPS/ADAS/ICT/28 65 22(PE 23E 24E 25E 23E 24E 25E 600941.SH 92.65 12431 1254.6 1370.8 1512.6 1685.4 9.1x 8.2x 7.4x 002837.SZ 25.47 145 2.8 4.0 5.2 7.2 36.7x 27.7x 20.2x 300353.SZ*10.24 63 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 85.9x 48.3x 31.0 x 603236.SH 51.71 137 6.2 3.1 7.1 10.1 44.1x 19.3x 13.6x 000625.SZ*18.18 1569 78.0 107.9 93.5 116.7 14.5x 16.8x 13.5x 301236.SZ*43.85 418 9.7 9.6 12.2 15.0 43.6x 34.3x 27.9x 000628.SZ*53.7 189 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-688007.SH*25.44 118 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.7 74.2x 46.4x 32.1x 688182.SH*17.53 70 0.8 0.9 4.3 5.3 76.1x 16.1x 13.1x 001270.SZ 71.97 113 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.8 62.1x 44.5x 30.1x wind 2023.12.19*wind 七、风 险提 示 5G 5.5G ICP IT 29 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%30 C3(C3 021-80234211 201204 1088 5 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 2028 18 1806
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