资源描述
浪潮已至，把握电改投资机遇公用事业2024年度策略华福低碳研究 S0210523030001|强 于 大市 2023 12 19 2030 23 23M7 23M9 23M11 23+1 2 24-25 1209 3 23M10 4.04 5.36 23 10 9.2 24 23 24 6 23M6 23M9 23M10 22 10 23M7 6 24 4()1 2 23 24 23 24H1 1ZFUxOqNtQmNpRnOtOrOqR7NbP7NoMrRsQsRjMrQmOlOoMoO8OnMoOwMmOmRxNqRoP目录3 2010-2015 3%11%8pct 2015-2020 11%24%13pct 2020-2022 2030 4(2030E/2045E/2060E)2020-2030 1)2)2030-2045 1)2)2045-2060 1)2)47%7%7%13%23%3%23%6%12%12%44%3%4%15%12%62%5 6 wind 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 2.5 3.1 3.9 5.8 7.9 10.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.6 10%1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 0%2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 25%0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0%0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 95%0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100%0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0%16.6 17.5 10.8 11.9 12.9 13.4 14.9 16.3 17.1 18.7 15%23 23 2023M7 7 2023.2 2023.5 2023.5 2023.5 2023.7 2023.9 2023.9 2023 2023.9 2023 2023.10 2023.11 23 23M9 23M11 1 2&8:&1-2023M1-10 17.51/MWh 2024 62h 184h 9 2022 2023 1002003004005006001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242022 2023(/MWH 0501001502002503003501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2022 2023(/MWH 2 23 9 8GW 6GW 22M9 23M9 10 22M9 22M9&23M9 23M9 目录11 23 23 23H1 23 24 12 7 2024 24 24 80%-100%80%23 26 20.8 23 675/22 23Q1-3 24 28 22 23 12 23 wind 23Q1-3-+1 21M10 1439 20%13+-+1 24 24+23 553.88/MWH 552.28/MWH 553.96/MWH 23 466.64/MWH 23 24 24 23 14 2024 2023 20%24 0.463/0.554/0.372/0.463/0.554/0.372/20231501 0-0.050/2024 2023 2024 1 1()+20%;2023 1501 20%20%0.3128 0.4692/20%2 2023 11 10 21 2024-2025 1209 15 2024-2025/KWH/KWH 100 0.77 0.053 0.001 100 12.24 0.022 0.015 100 48.88 0.023 0.013 100 68.84 0.022 0.029 100 106.36 0.022 0.016 100 96.20 0.020 0.026 100 35.50 0.027 0.016 100 17.06 0.026 0.025 100 22.50 0.028 0.026 100 15.02 0.020 0.010 100 78.81 0.020 0.013 100 47.91 0.018 0.010 100 52.74 0.021 0.023 100 29.36 0.019 0.013 100 22.60 0.020 0.015/KWH/KWH 165 109.33 0.048 0.038 100 28.93 0.022 0.015 165 36.76 0.039 0.024 165 21.93 0.038 0.020 165 23.30 0.044 0.009 100 47.16 0.021 0.025 100 65.99 0.019 0.021 165 6.19 0.044 0.008 100 31.66 0.022 0.028 100 22.57 0.020 0.017 100 68.25 0.020 0.011 165 21.42 0.061 0.012 100 3.24 0.020 0.011 100 34.69 0.024 0.026 165 32.42 0.034 0.018 21 22-23 2 22 11.2 4594 51453 0.38/kwh 20%23462 1209 5.15%16&22 11.2 4594/kwh 0.38 51453 1209 h 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 470013%20446 20927 21408 21889 22369 22850 23331 2381214%20616 21101 21586 22072 22557 23042 23527 2401215%20786 21276 21765 22255 22744 23233 23723 2421216%20956 21450 21944 22438 22931 23425 23919 2441217%21127 21625 22123 22621 23119 23616 24114 2461218%21297 21799 22301 22804 23306 23808 24310 2481219%21467 21974 22480 22987 23493 24000 24506 25012&+2 4594h 6%-7%20%13%-14%4594h 14%17%200 250 4344-4394h 17%4394h 17 4594h&17%101381862242723136-160-356-551-747-1000-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%=-1032-783-534-285-36213462711960-1500-1000-500050010001500-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50=-3 23M5 19H1 1.47%2.5%3%23H1 167 60%19H1 50 38%23H1 91%18 0501001502002503002019H1 2023H1 2019H1&2023H1 1.47%2.50%3.00%+0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%2019H1 目录19 23 10 23 80GW 23 23 160GW 4.3 4.9 23M10 4.04 5.36 0.46 23 10 9.2 24 20 23 10 23 100100200300400500600700800900100011002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E GW GW-GW 23 23M1-11 21 2023 12 8 112.44 21 174.81 23 19-22 4842/kw 1822/kw 23M1-11 1800-2300/kw 1500-1800/kw 16-22 23M1-11 3400-4600/kw 22 300+/65/2023 12 6 65/21 wind 21 23 24 2023 2023 23M12 2024 2422&2023.2 2023.7 2023.9 2023.9 2023 2023.9 2023 2023.11 2023.12 2024&目录23 6 21 24H1 24 wind 24H1 1201401601802021 2022 2023(1451501551601651701752021 2022 2023(2023Q3 1.8 22 25 2022 2022()2022 600900.SH 94.29 3.71 0.85600795.SH 63.14 2.38 0.10600674.SH 50.76 2.71 0.40600025.SH 46.31 2.02 0.18601985.SH 35.63 2.32 0.17600021.SH 30.73 0.40 0.04600905.SH 30.40 1.68 0.08001289.SZ 19.20 0.60 0.12 12 12 363.84175.57128.164.2332.53215.2460.5267.0438.4211.37050100150200250300350400450 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023Q3 2023Q3 23 6 9 10 5 15 26 目录27 24 2 23 3 24 4()1 22 10 12 23 7 6 25 70GW 6 8 10 2023 2035 10%28 wind 24 2 0100020003000400050006000 GW 1 1.21 2024 2 1.21 2025 0.13 2026 7 1.27 2026 3 1.27 2027 8 1.27 2027 4 1.27 2027 3 1.25 2027 4 1.25 2027 3 4 1.21*2-1 2 1.29*2-GW 4 1.19 2024 5 1.20 2027 6 1.20 2028 1 1.20 2025 2 1.20 2026 1 1.21 2026 2 1.21 2027 5 6 1.21*2-目录29 2030 23 23M7 23M9 23M11 23 24 23 24H1 30 31 32 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%33 1436 MT 20 200120
展开阅读全文