资源描述
2 Alpha 1 2/1 2 2023 1 2 RevPAR 0YEVzQsPmPoPsMnOqNqPpO8ObP8OpNqQoMmPlOmNnPfQrQsP7NmMwOxNrNmQMYqQmM HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4 Wind Wind 2023/12/07 社会服务：18.02%7.66pcts 美容护理：32.18%21.82pcts 2023-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%300-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300 5 Wind Wind 2023 12 1 PE51.5 5 30.71%2023 12 1 PE30.9 5 16.54%0501001502002502018-12-072019-01-252019-03-222019-05-102019-06-282019-08-162019-09-302019-11-222020-01-102020-03-062020-04-242020-06-122020-07-312020-09-182020-11-062020-12-252021-02-102021-04-022021-05-212021-07-092021-08-272021-10-152021-12-032022-01-212022-03-182022-05-062022-06-242022-08-122022-09-302022-11-252023-01-132023-03-102023-04-282023-06-162023-08-042023-09-222023-11-17 TTM 0102030405060702018-12-072019-02-012019-04-042019-05-312019-07-262019-09-202019-11-152020-01-102020-03-132020-05-082020-07-032020-08-282020-10-232020-12-182021-02-102021-04-092021-06-042021-07-302021-09-242021-11-192022-01-142022-03-182022-05-132022-07-082022-09-022022-11-042022-12-302023-03-032023-04-282023-06-212023-08-182023-10-20 TTM HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7 Wind 2023 2023 1-10 3291.3 6.2%2022 2021 2023Q4-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09 Q2 2023 2023 1-10 8 APP 2023/8.6%/14.5%/54.5%/15.9%/9.78%65.18%37.81%22.42%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012001400 2023 GMV yoy%9/50%2023+2022 2023H1 113 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%“”“C A”2023H1 113 KKV 2000 MAOGEPING 300 160282 1 2771130204060801001201401601802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023H1 10 1 618/TOP1 2 2023 2023Q3 2021 2022 2023“618”“11”“618”“11”“618”“11”1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SK-SK-SK-9 10 2022 2023“618”“11”“618”“11”1 2 3 SK-II 4 5 6 SK-II 7 8 SK-II 9 10 GMV TOP10 GMV TOP10050010001500200025003000350040004500 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 618 11 2023 2023 APP 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%TOP1 TOP1-3-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3/ml A A 790/28ml 28 0.3%A 720/30ml 24 A 595/30ml 20 A 390/30ml 13 2.0350/30ml 12 840/30ml 28 880/50ml 18 350/30ml 12 2.0 310/50g 6 C CF 1600/30ml 53 VC377 610/28g 22 595/30ml 20 280/30ml 9 2.0 1280/50ml 26 830/50ml 17 280/30ml 9 12 2023 8 93%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2023-08 2023-09 2023-10可复美 珀莱雅 SK-II 珂润 资生堂-74.10%-76.80%-85.80%-75.50%-50.50%-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%02468101214资生堂 CPB SK-II 黛珂 珂润GMV（亿元）yoy（%）APP 188/40g 268/50gIpsa 350/200ml 168/100ml 99/150ml 280/150ml 163/215ml 377 610/28g 280/30mlSK-II 470/120g 339/15 13/0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-30%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 20“”%14/63.90%57.70%53.90%48.70%37.30%24.10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%29.54%21.23%20.31%15.69%13.23%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%“”20%50%A/15 C A HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17 2021 1892 2017-2021 CAGR 17.5%3.02%2030 6382 2022-2030 CAGR 13.81%10.53%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05001000150020002500300035004000 yoy%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060007000 yoy%18 2022 4.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021男性 女性男性增速（右轴）女性增速（右轴）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%一线城市 新一线城市 二线城市 三线城市 四线城市 其他2019 2020 2021 4.50%11.30%17.20%22.00%0%5%10%15%20%25%2022 19 1994.9 2002.1 2022.5 2009.12 2010.12 2016.1 2016 2017.5 2020.4 2020.7 2020.11 2021.2(2021 2021.6 2021.6 2021.9 2021.11 2022.1 2022.1 2022.8 2022.10 2022.11 2023.1 A 2023.4 2023.5 2023.5 20 2021 2017-2021 CAGR24.94%11.5%2022-2030 CAGR16.72%CAGR 9.69%2030 65%/5 CARG 爱美 客招 股书 P 1 1 7/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%yoy%yoy%48%52%2022 9%47%44%2022/2023 21 1 50 2021 64 2030 441 2 3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05101520253035404550 yoy%2020 2021 2020 2021 27.20%39.20%14.30%21.30%12.80%11.70%8.90%7.80%7.80%10.40%3.00%3.70%47.80%61.30%26.20%32.80%LG 20.60%7.50%14.80%5.60%4.40%5.00%20.50%23.80%Q-MED 6.60%4.90%12.70%9.10%Humedix 5.10%4.20%5.10%4.10%Revitacare 1.80%4.10%36.70%23.40%53.10%46.70%15.40%15.30%20.70%20.40%22 1 2 3 2021 46 2030 390 4/RT002 Hugel 2009 1993 2020 2020 900Kda300/500/900Kda900Kda 500/900Kda 1-2 Hutox Huons 2024 ATGC-110 ATGC YY001 RT002 Revance Xeomin Merz ET-01 Eirion-0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%051015202530354045 yoy%4 23 1 sculptra 2010 2021 2+1-2 3 2023H1 5.16+90.66%2023H1+139%4 2023/2024 PLLA/PCL/PDLLA 10000-20000/ml 300-15000/ml+2023/2024 vs 2021.4 2021.4 2021.6 2023.7 PLLA+CMC+PCL(30%)+CMC(70%)PLLA-PEG(18%)+()(82%)PLLA-PEG(18%)+()(82%)15-20min 18800/18800/12800/14800/340mg/1ml/0.75ml/1ml/30 12 24 24 个月 24 1 2 2021 108 2023 2022-2027 CAGR42.4%2027 62.3%1083 2021 10 3 2021/2022 0.28/1.17 DNA,vs 1.52.54.46.410.818.527.138.754.776.9108.30204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E动物源胶原蛋白 重组胶原蛋白 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.402021 2022 25 1 4 2 2021/2023 2 2023 5-10 2012 3 2009 9 2012 8-12 2019 3-6 2012 3-6 2021-2023 4 2024-2025 III 2023 8 51 26 I Density&LinearZ-1+1 Maili Extreme M 2023 3 A YY001 2023 5 Lanluma v Glacial RX F1 V V20/V30 V20 2023Q3 v30 Aesthefill CMDE HARA A ET-01-AI-09-4 2017 2020 冭 2021 2023 2023 2021 Glacial Spa(2022)Pr imeDermaFacial 2022 2023E)“瑅 2023 2014 Endymed 2014 2017 2020“”“”2023 2012 2020 2022 2021 2023 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28 Wind&2019 119.1%/112.8%/104.1%&2019 100.7%/94.9%/101.5%2019 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0123456789 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 0%50%100%150%200%250%010002000300040005000600070008000 2020 2021 2022 2023)2019/29 Wind Wind 2023 2023 36.74+75.5%3.69+114.4%2023/12.16/11.68/12.90+46.5%/+86.9%/101.9%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010000200003000040000500006000070000%30 138+11 11 2019 52%20 2019 50%2019 80%2022.12 2023.1 2023.2 20 2023.3)40 2023.8)78 6 2023.11 90 12 1 30 05001000150020002500300001 01 01 19 02 06 02 24 03 14 04 01 04 19 05 07 05 25 06 12 06 30 07 18 08 05 08 23 09 10 09 28 10 16 11 03 11 21 12 09 12 27 2023 2019 2022 31/IP/2024/2025“”IP 2024 2023 2025/3.5 2024 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 33 Wind RevPAR/2023Q3 2019 105.7%/112.6%/129.3%RevPAR 2019 050100150200250300 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%34 1 2022 1426 2019-19.07%2022 3 39%2021 35%4pcts 2/3-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%02004006008001000120014001600180020002019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%26%31%35%39%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2019 2020 2021 2022 25%32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020%35 Wind 2023/259/590/618 2023Q3/6242/12138/9028/2019 40.76%2022 43.47%2.64pcts 14.63%2022CR3:40.76%/CR3-1000100200300400500600 02000400060008000100001200014000 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2019 2022 CR3:43.47%36 Wind Wind 1 2/2023Q3 2019 7/18/7pcts 26.5%/57.5%/44.7%3)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 38 Alpha 1 2/1 2 2023 1 2 RevPAR 39 Wind Wind 2023/12/7EPS PE2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600138.SH 78 10.78 0.47 0.78 1.00 23 14 11600054.SH 68 11.14 0.57 0.65 0.73 20 18 16603136.SH 35 18.62 0.88 1.15 1.37 22 17 14603099.SH 42 15.71 0.58 0.68 0.80 26 23 19300144.SZ 270 10.29 0.35 0.50 0.62 30 21 17002707.SZ 75 7.65 0.02 0.21 0.34 403 36 21 600258.SH 186 16.64 0.71 0.92 1.10 24 19 16600754.SH 304 31.56 1.18 1.68 2.07 28 20 16 300896.SZ 607 280.58 8.79 12.19 16.24 34 24 18000963.SZ 685 39.05 1.68 2.04 2.47 25 20 17688366.SH 163 108.62 2.63 3.27 3.96 42 34 28600200.SH 62 8.73 0.02 0.20 0.32 450 46 28603605.SH 395 99.44 2.82 3.56 4.41 35 28 23300957.SZ 288 67.99 3.06 3.87 4.85 23 18 15688363.SH 320 66.36 1.79 2.22 2.71 39 31 26603983.SH 102 25.38 0.71 0.91 1.11 37 29 24600223.SH 102 10.04 0.37 0.47 0.58 28 22 18600315.SH 152 22.48 0.91 1.10 1.27 25 21 18 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089
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