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2023 11 24%1M 3M 12M-4.06-16.26-41.08 300-1.96-6.87-6.56:S0530517110001 1 2 3 2022A 2023E 2024E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 捷佳伟创 3.01 25.41 4.82 15.87 7.46 10.26 买入 帝尔激光 2.42 26.48 1.88 34.08 2.85 22.47 增持 汉钟精机 1.21 19.43 1.67 14.02 1.99 11.76 买入 石英股份 2.94 31.11 17.30 5.29 28.98 3.16 增持 岱勒新材 0.77 25.64 1.04 19.02 1.66 11.92 增持 高测股份 3.47 13.23 4.44 10.34 5.69 8.06 买入 晶科能源 0.30 32.57 0.78 12.55 0.95 10.33 增持 阳光电源 2.42 36.47 6.27 14.07 7.74 11.40 买入 福莱特 0.99 27.67 1.24 22.11 1.67 16.36 买入 福斯特 1.19 21.95 1.20 21.75 1.66 15.71 增持 iFinD 2023Q3+7.6%-20.0%2023Q3+21%+9%2023Q3 22.27%-0.27pcts/-1.49pcts 10.14%-1.94pcts/-3.71pcts 2023Q3 ROE 17.11%3.2pcts 2023Q3 6329+28%+36%+97%+65%-37%PB-ROE 11 12.19 A 0.71 4.2%2.69 A 1.95 70.1%PB-ROE 100%20%40%-80%2023Q3 0.15-0.17 50%2023Q4 0.05 ROE-45%-25%-5%15%2022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 300 -2-1.4 2.5 2.1.5 2.2.6 2.3.9 2.4.12 2.5.13 2.6 ROE.14 3.19 3.1.19 3.2 PB-ROE.21 4.24 4.1.24 4.2.25 4.3.27 1 2023.5 2 2023.5 3 2023Q3.5 4 2023Q3.5 5 2023.6 6 2023Q3.6 7 2023%.9 8 2023%.9 9 2023%.10 10 2023%.10 11 2023%.11 12 2023H1%.11 13 2023H1%.11 14 2023.12 15 2023.12 16 2023.12 17 2023.13 18 2023.13 19 2023.13 20 2023.13 21 2023.15 22 2023 ROE.15 23 2023%.15 24 2023%.15 YWEVvMrMsRrQsMpMtOrOpOaQcMaQsQnNmOmPjMnMmOeRmMrQbRpOnRNZsQoRwMmNqP-3-25 2023.17 26 2023.17 27 2023.17 28/.17 29 2023.18 30 2023.18 31 2023.18 32 2023.18 33/.19 34%.19 35 sw sw.20 36.20 37.20 38.21 39.21 40 sw sw PB-ROE.21 41 sw ROE.22 42 sw ROE.22 43 sw PB-ROE.23 44 sw.23 45.24 46.24 47.24 48.24 49.25 50.25 51.25 52.25 53-.26 54-.26 55.26 56.26 57.27 58.27 59.27 60.28 61.28 62.28 63.28 1 2023.6 2 2023.6 3 2023Q3.14 4 2023Q3.14 5 2023Q3.16 6 2023Q3.16 -4-1 2020 2020Q2 2020Q3 2060 14 2023Q3 2023Q3 34%2023Q3 ROE PB-ROE ROE PE PB PB-ROE sw ROE PB ROE ROE 50%ROE 7.6%4-5 ROE 2019Q2 ROE 2019 2023Q3 2023Q3 2023Q3 N topcon 1 300724 300776 688516 002158 2 603688 001269 688556 300700 3 688223 300274 601865 603806 -5-2 2.1 sw 52 7923.20 22.6%964.53 14.9%8 100%1 2023 2 2023 wind wind 2023Q3 2694.7 7.6%2023Q2 17 2023Q3 279.9 20.0%2021 3 2023Q3 4 2023Q3 wind wind -6-5 2023 6 2023Q3 wind wind 2.2 sw 52 42/38 36/32 1 2023 2023Q1-Q3%隆基股份 一体化组件 941.00 8.12%91.78 6.54%晶科能源 一体化组件 536.24 61.25%38.43 279.14%天合光能 一体化组件 493.84 39.38%35.40 111.34%晶澳科技 一体化组件 408.43 21.61%48.13 105.64%中环股份 硅片 348.98-2.39%45.36 23.75%京运通 硅片 51.37-6.72%0.56-56.21%弘元绿能 硅片 71.74-45.23%10.17-53.43%通威股份 硅料 740.68 9.15%132.70-24.98%大全能源 硅料 93.25-47.81%44.26-66.09%东方日升 电池组件 176.07 33.27%8.61 71.18%爱旭股份 电池组件 162.49-12.43%13.09 35.77%中来股份 电池组件 57.61 27.77%2.36 40.94%爱康科技 电池组件 28.22-14.04%0.46 107.43%钧达股份 电池组件 94.21 93.59%9.56 299.21%帝科股份 辅料-银浆 34.75 133.49%2.03 1968.41%苏州固锝 辅料-银浆 17.14 16.07%0.55-58.12%金博股份 耗材-热场 6.07-23.46%2.83-37.21%阳光电源 逆变器 286.22 108.85%43.54 250.53%-7-锦浪科技 逆变器 32.51 11.39%6.27 6.84%上能电气 逆变器 21.77 210.59%1.35 359.04%禾迈股份 逆变器 10.65 50.41%3.48 14.73%固德威 逆变器 38.14 93.80%7.41 224.49%德业股份 逆变器 48.94 55.29%12.64 69.13%昱能科技 逆变器 6.58 4.38%1.34-28.65%美畅股份 耗材-金刚线 21.68 35.35%8.93 35.12%岱勒新材 耗材-金刚线 4.30 66.24%0.87 130.62%高测股份 耗材-金刚线 25.21 92.24%7.14 173.90%通灵股份 辅料-接线盒 7.12 17.11%0.84 53.91%快可电子 辅料-接线盒 6.49 20.42%0.88 67.96%联泓新科 辅料-胶膜背板 32.07-23.08%3.26-48.01%福斯特 辅料-胶膜背板 106.16 22.91%8.85-6.68%赛伍技术 辅料-胶膜背板 22.21 3.71%0.50-62.71%海优新材 辅料-胶膜背板 24.00-4.43%-0.34-156.47%宇邦新材 辅料-焊带 12.91 41.92%0.73 55.71%清源股份 辅料-支架 8.62 26.02%1.08 112.20%中信博 辅料-支架 19.21 50.22%0.98 1353.77%福莱特 辅料-玻璃 96.78 41.64%10.85 30.86%亚玛顿 辅料-玻璃 16.87 17.75%0.39 39.96%洛阳玻璃 辅料-玻璃 27.79 40.27%1.29-24.19%安彩高科 辅料-玻璃 26.12 45.11%0.33-65.36%欧晶科技 耗材-坩埚 14.55 147.76%4.08 280.59%石英股份 耗材-坩埚 34.34 378.27%24.31 638.32%明冠新材 辅料-胶膜背板 8.36-14.63%0.53-66.27%京山轻机 光伏设备 34.07 59.40%2.44 48.40%晶盛机电 光伏设备 84.06 80.39%22.06 74.94%捷佳伟创 光伏设备 40.83 50.48%7.52 48.96%迈为股份 光伏设备 28.69 69.35%4.25 3.88%帝尔激光 光伏设备 6.74 9.40%1.74 0.93%微导纳米 光伏设备 3.82 165.30%0.69 4864.47%奥特维 光伏设备 25.17 76.74%5.23 79.52%连城数控 光伏设备 18.91 73.95%2.33 78.66%金辰股份 光伏设备 11.45 19.17%0.50 35.72%wind 2 2023Q3 2023Q3%2023Q3%隆基股份 一体化组件 294.48-19.58%-18.95%55.41-44.05%-54.60%晶科能源 一体化组件 304.72 62.53%3.28%21.85 225.79%14.95%天合光能 一体化组件 280.65 41.25%13.08%17.72 35.67%-13.27%晶澳科技 一体化组件 203.62-8.23%-6.01%22.31 22.95%-12.54%-8-中环股份 硅片 172.79-24.19%-20.39%22.83-20.72%-27.67%京运通 硅片 24.14-20.15%17.74%-2.48-30.57%225.16%弘元绿能 硅片 36.61-60.13%-34.34%3.40-76.01%-11.57%通威股份 硅料 408.24-10.52%-8.50%46.69-68.11%-35.07%大全能源 硅料 44.68-57.38%-20.48%15.15-87.61%-54.53%东方日升 电池组件 108.30 23.84%-3.87%5.50 72.29%-23.99%爱旭股份 电池组件 85.03-35.30%-25.11%6.07-27.14%-4.71%中来股份 电池组件 30.53 33.27%30.36%1.34 120.27%84.63%爱康科技 电池组件 15.78-53.13%-43.25%0.14 76.99%-291.14%钧达股份 电池组件 54.54 65.20%-9.08%6.02 396.34%13.50%帝科股份 辅料-银浆 19.27 178.66%36.04%1.16 761.16%-22.77%苏州固锝 辅料-银浆 9.82 45.90%12.47%0.33-51.90%-16.02%金博股份 耗材-热场 3.05-9.69%-11.01%1.65-77.61%-82.53%阳光电源 逆变器 160.42 78.95%10.91%28.46 147.29%0.79%锦浪科技 逆变器 15.97-19.41%-12.91%3.03-59.26%-58.96%上能电气 逆变器 15.57 75.90%-27.18%0.99 226.58%-25.67%禾迈股份 逆变器 4.85-18.78%-29.21%1.72-58.23%-61.11%固德威 逆变器 20.95 25.49%-12.35%4.04-31.04%-62.39%德业股份 逆变器 28.09-15.77%-49.01%6.75-36.10%-54.85%昱能科技 逆变器 2.22-27.88%39.62%0.17-62.76%178.95%美畅股份 耗材-金刚线 11.74 26.00%-0.94%5.13 37.21%-3.24%岱勒新材 耗材-金刚线 2.77 83.63%9.94%0.66 156.82%20.25%高测股份 耗材-金刚线 12.62 97.60%33.90%3.79 139.99%20.93%通灵股份 辅料-接线盒 3.83 21.12%15.01%0.47 28.11%28.95%快可电子 辅料-接线盒 3.45 21.20%-1.34%0.49 46.64%20.06%联泓新科 辅料-胶膜背板 16.31-30.26%5.97%1.79-75.59%-56.18%福斯特 辅料-胶膜背板 57.03 33.16%5.80%5.20 14.68%4.99%赛伍技术 辅料-胶膜背板 11.80 16.30%-5.15%0.17-34.72%103.25%海优新材 辅料-胶膜背板 10.49 17.53%47.67%-0.57 44.90%27.68%宇邦新材 辅料-焊带 7.37 60.06%2.39%0.37 67.07%21.68%清源股份 辅料-支架 5.00 2.06%-15.69%0.57-6.50%-34.73%中信博 辅料-支架 11.06 79.06%33.10%0.59 622.08%0.00%福莱特 辅料-玻璃 43.13 58.72%43.88%5.73 76.19%54.11%亚玛顿 辅料-玻璃 8.78 23.09%14.40%0.23 170.56%87.33%洛阳玻璃 辅料-玻璃 13.52 92.08%44.37%1.16 427.74%-40.57%安彩高科 辅料-玻璃 13.90 38.09%3.14%0.23-92.59%-86.11%欧晶科技 耗材-坩埚 8.18 143.81%6.46%2.36 188.89%-23.37%石英股份 耗材-坩埚 22.11 359.51%11.52%16.10 531.40%10.26%明冠新材 辅料-胶膜背板 4.35-26.59%-24.07%0.33-118.56%-122.40%京山轻机 光伏设备 20.80 89.44%-25.67%1.91 1.80%-71.64%晶盛机电 光伏设备 48.07 63.47%5.18%13.19 63.14%-0.89%捷佳伟创 光伏设备 21.52 47.23%7.90%4.15 50.51%13.48%迈为股份 光伏设备 17.12 78.28%30.74%2.04-0.56%41.92%帝尔激光 光伏设备 3.26 23.25%46.52%0.81 37.23%104.73%-9-微导纳米 光伏设备 3.06 178.72%108.78%0.70 140.32%24.19%奥特维 光伏设备 14.78 94.38%16.45%3.01 87.64%9.16%连城数控 光伏设备 12.44 99.22%45.25%1.30 189.23%73.07%金辰股份 光伏设备 6.29 17.14%-7.25%0.24 44.27%4.11%wind 2.3 2023 52 22.99%12.17%+0.31pcts/-0.82pcts 2023 67%58%+0.8pcts/+1.7pcts 7 2023%8 2023%wind wind 2023 -10-9 2023%10 2023%wind wind 2023Q3 22.27%-0.27pcts/-1.49pcts 10.14%-1.94pcts/-3.71pcts 3 2023Q3 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 环比 同比 一体化 组件 15.09%13.46%13.06%13.73%17.16%17.99%18.54%0.55pcts 5.48pcts 硅片 17.27%19.37%21.36%15.06%23.35%20.78%23.18%2.40pcts 1.82pcts 硅料 41.52%43.41%49.88%42.63%46.85%28.30%19.35%-8.95pcts-30.52pcts 电池组 件 10.26%10.87%11.83%13.02%15.31%15.65%19.44%3.79pcts 7.61pcts 辅料 15.17%19.31%16.10%12.28%13.49%15.01%15.60%0.59pcts-0.50pcts 耗材 45.69%47.98%48.25%48.76%54.04%63.81%61.20%-2.62pcts 12.95pcts 逆变器 29.66%26.24%29.28%27.14%31.86%31.66%33.98%2.32pcts 4.69pcts 光伏设 备 33.00%32.66%34.43%32.55%32.48%34.49%34.46%-0.03pcts 0.03pcts wind 4 2023Q3 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 环比 同比 一体化 组件 7.16%6.88%8.04%7.04%10.34%10.18%7.62%-2.56pcts-0.43pcts 硅片 9.41%10.70%13.65%6.38%13.55%10.17%11.91%1.73pcts-1.74pcts 硅料 28.97%27.91%30.08%17.24%30.22%13.65%9.09%-4.56pcts-20.99pcts 电池组 件 2.89%4.21%4.49%3.60%6.69%6.48%7.14%0.66pcts 2.65pcts 辅料 7.74%10.67%7.66%4.62%6.36%7.64%6.98%-0.66pcts-0.69pcts 耗材 31.37%32.68%33.68%33.22%40.41%49.12%44.65%-4.47pcts 10.97pcts 逆变器 10.94%10.71%15.12%12.32%15.69%18.20%15.00%-3.20pcts-0.12pcts 光伏设 备 17.77%19.84%19.54%17.07%18.22%18.56%18.02%-0.55pcts-1.52pcts wind -11-2023 0.38pcts 7.11%0.26pcts 1.98%6%11 2023%wind+/2.27/1.46/0.53/0.41pcts 7.85%/5.04%/6.28%/3.92%+12 2023H1%13 2023H1%wind wind -12-2.4 2023 887.4 12.8%58%65%14 2023 15 2023 wind wind 2023 19%/16 2023 wind -13-2.5+-2023Q3 87+21%+9%2023Q3 72+242%+312%63+66%+10%17 2023 18 2023 wind wind 19 2023 20 2023 wind wind -14-5 2023Q3 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 环比 同比 一体化 组件 198.93 162.51 155.30 110.00 176.30 154.29 160.09 3.76%3.08%硅片 43.22 25.48 21.12 14.27 27.63 17.55 72.30 312.02%242.35%硅料 23.68 25.06 29.20 34.17 64.61 27.61 10.42-62.24%-64.30%电池组 件 40.90 47.89 38.24 49.26 80.16 57.54 63.45 10.28%65.94%辅料 188.58 187.60 230.52 202.48 204.66 216.60 187.88-13.26%-18.50%耗材 254.83 255.91 303.65 260.54 293.91 300.87 301.00 0.04%-0.87%逆变器 460.18 356.46 331.31 184.43 292.88 287.46 301.72 4.96%-8.93%光伏设 备 768.53 704.51 778.87 700.51 930.37 849.78 893.39 5.13%14.70%wind 6 2023Q3 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 环比 同比 一体化 组件 178.09 159.41 156.75 119.09 156.47 149.67 152.39 1.82%-2.78%硅片 75.20 61.25 63.17 72.73 91.25 96.63 135.54 40.28%114.58%硅料 64.88 50.89 56.49 65.04 113.34 69.77 54.41-22.02%-3.69%电池组 件 84.44 87.71 84.81 86.13 106.33 89.39 104.83 17.27%23.61%辅料 102.65 88.30 107.22 101.20 104.27 105.52 90.94-13.82%-15.18%耗材 193.25 166.70 192.78 169.59 197.58 218.53 229.62 5.08%19.11%逆变器 416.30 338.27 341.00 222.57 306.40 283.42 307.72 8.57%-9.76%光伏设 备 690.05 672.88 732.64 681.11 876.99 817.75 888.30 8.63%21.25%wind 2.6 ROE ROE 2023 6328.6 28%+58%+12%1.5+31%58.6%1.04pcts 18.46%2.46pcts 2023 ROE 17.11%-3.2pcts ROE -15-21 2023 22 2023 ROE wind wind 2023Q3 2.2pcts 30 69.3%8.91pcts 2023Q3 18.46%3.2pcts 33 23 2023%24 2023%wind wind -16-7 2023Q3 2016 年 2017 年 2018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年 2022 年 2023Q3 较年初 变化 一体化 组件 67.07%65.24%63.75%65.57%64.42%67.01%63.71%65.47%1.76pcts 硅片 51.25%55.74%59.40%57.06%52.24%47.57%53.54%50.63%-2.91pcts 硅料 48.57%48.24%58.88%61.70%50.57%47.50%39.86%45.08%5.22pcts 电池组 件 63.49%58.88%55.71%63.36%59.61%67.14%71.93%71.07%-0.86pcts 辅料 42.92%44.89%47.78%46.55%39.67%39.39%46.98%46.60%-0.38pcts 耗材 24.35%34.16%31.75%37.57%22.13%33.01%30.74%29.63%-1.10pcts 逆变器 51.40%57.55%59.81%60.33%57.40%54.27%61.47%59.95%-1.52pcts 光伏设 备 40.37%48.42%47.16%50.92%56.04%51.67%60.43%69.34%8.91pcts wind 8 2023Q3 2016 年 2017 年 2018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年 2022 年 2023Q3 较年初 变化 一体化 组件 2.43%11.96%13.80%8.24%13.91%17.63%12.74%16.08%3.34pcts 硅片 25.74%36.10%31.53%34.49%27.88%23.24%22.49%29.12%6.63pcts 硅料 18.15%18.20%15.05%20.38%18.83%13.00%16.16%19.17%3.01pcts 电池组 件 29.20%30.13%31.51%22.10%22.36%21.10%21.01%22.15%1.13pcts 辅料 4.49%7.26%15.42%11.25%18.48%16.54%22.67%28.04%5.37pcts 耗材 0.12%3.77%5.13%6.00%5.50%8.35%4.48%4.41%-0.07pcts 逆变器 3.74%4.82%8.88%7.64%5.44%6.48%12.39%17.02%4.62pcts 光伏设 备 5.05%4.06%4.84%3.47%3.81%3.35%3.75%5.88%2.12pcts wind 2023 3687.8+36%1002.6+97%164+247%274+157%67-24%-17-25 2023 26 2023 wind wind 27 2023 28/wind wind 2023 1147 65%273 37%90/3.81 2021-2022 -18-29 2023 30 2023 wind wind 31 2023 32 2023 wind wind 2020 2022 2200 56.9%57.9%17.6%18.6%2020 2022 1500 IPO 2023 ROE 17.1%sw 2023 ROE ttm -19-33/34%wind wind 3 3.1 sw 20 sw 12.19 0.2%sw sw 2.58 25.3%7 sw -20-35 sw sw wind sw A 0.71 4.2%sw A 1.95 70.1%36 37 wind wind -21-38 39 wind wind 3.2 PB-ROE PB-ROE sw sw ROE PB ROE PB ROE R2=0.24 sw PB-ROE 40 sw sw PB-ROE wind -22-ROE PB PB-ROE sw PB ROE ROE sw PB ROE sw sw ROE PB 41 sw ROE 42 sw ROE wind wind ROE sw ROE 50%ROE=7.6%2019 PB 22.3%PB 2.51 1.6%2010 2023 sw PB(1.70 2.73)74%69%-23-43 sw PB-ROE wind 44 sw wind -24-4 4.1 11 6.79/2.54/0.48/w 1.10/w 78%49%49%42%2023Q3 7.35/3.01/0.72/w 1.27/w 76%39%24%34%75%/45%/44%/35%2020Q2 2023Q3/+7%/+7%/-6%/-9%45 46 pvinfo pvinfo 47 48 pvinfo pvinfo -25-49 50 pvinfo smm 4.2 2023Q3 37.6+4%/+72%174GW+25%/+238%2023Q3 51GW+14%/+133%2023Q3 46GW+9%/-11%106+77%423GW+107%109GW+106%175GW+22%51 52 pvinfo pvinfo -26-53-54-pvinfo 900GW 2023 1000GW 930GW 840GW 790GW 900GW 2024 50%20%1000GW 55 56 -27-57 58 4.3 2023Q3 0.15-0.17/50%2023Q3 0.1/15%8-9/5-6/50%59 wind -28-2023Q4 11 0.05 70%60 61 pvinfo wind wind 1/2023Q4 2022-2023-perc-8-9/GW 2023Q4 15 4-5 40%4%ROE 7%8%62 63 CPIA wind CPIA wind/-29-5 -30-6 12/300 15%300 5%15%300-10%5%300 10%300 5%300-5%5%300 5%80 28 410005 0731-84403360 0731-84403438
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