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|2023 12 27 2023 1 2 IRA 2023 55%2024 2024 IRR 2024 1 2 2024 N 1 N/N 2 N TOPCon N TOPCon 1.6mm EPE EPE Know-How 3 HJT BC HJT 1 HJT 碁 BC BC 4 10 2020 PE 50 8-9 7 2024 S0680520030005 1 4 2023-12-24 2 CPIA 2023-12-17 3 10 2023-12-10-48%-32%-16%0%16%2022-12 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 300 2023 12 27 P.2 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 03800.HK-0.60 0.31 0.23 0.29 2.99 3.36 4.44 3.50 600438.SH 5.71 3.88 2.97 4.29 4.15 6.11 7.98 5.52 601865.SH 0.90 1.26 1.63 2.01 27.70 19.79 15.29 12.40 603806.SH 0.85 1.30 1.70 2.16 26.65 17.42 13.32 10.49 688223.SH 0.29 0.79 0.92 1.14 29.21 10.72 9.21 7.43 002459.SZ 1.67 2.67 3.36 3.95 11.49 7.18 5.71 4.86 601012.SH 1.95 1.99 2.78 2.94 10.91 10.69 7.65 7.24 688599.SH 1.69 3.26 4.56 4.96 15.59 8.08 5.78 5.31 Wind 2023.12.22 Wind 0YFUyRtOsRqRtNoNmRqPoP9P9R7NtRmMpNoNiNoPpNfQpNxP8OqQvMwMmMoPvPrRsN 2023 12 27 P.3.5 1.1 2023.5 1.1.1 2023.5 1.1.2 IRA 55%.7 1.1.3 7%CAGR.8 1.2.10.13 2.1.13 2.2.13 2.3.14 2024 N.15 3.1 N 70%.15 3.2 N.15 3.2.1/.15 3.2.2 N.16 3.2.3.17 3.2.4 2024.17 3.3 TOPCon.18 3.3.1 TOPCon 1.6mm.18 3.3.2 EVA POE EPE.19 3.3.3.20 3.4 2024.21 3.4.1 GW.21 3.4.2 HJT 0-1.23 3.4.3 BC.24 3.5.25.26 1 2007-2023E GW.5 2 2021-2023.10 GW.5 3 2023.7 4 2014-2028.8 5 2023.8 6 GW.9 7 2023.10 8.11 9 2007-2023 10%.11 10 2024 GW.12 11 2023 1-10.13 12 2023/kg.13 13 2023 182mm/.13 14 2023 182mm Perc/W.14 15 2023 182mm Perc/W.14 2023 12 27 P.4 16 2022-2030.15 17 2022-2030.15 18 2024 N.16 19 2023.17 20.18 21/POE.19 22.19 23 EPE.19 24.20 25 2021-2023.20 26 2021-2023.20 27 2021-2023.21 28 2021-2023.21 29 2023.21 30.22 31.22 32 2022-2030.23 33/.24 34 2017-2023 PE-FY1/FY2 Wind 2023.12.20.25 2023 12 27 P.5 1.1 2023 2023 350GW 400GW 2007-2012 2013-2018 2019 2023 350GW 400GW 2022 39%-58%1 2007-2023E GW BNEF 1.1.1 2023 2023 1-11 163GW 2023 1-11 163.88GW 11 95-120GW 2021-2022 12 2023 180-200GW 2022 106%-129%2 2021-2023.10 GW 20.3733.6648.3161.2178.4297.16113.16128.94142.56163.880204060801001201401601801-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021 2022 2023 2023 12 27 P.6 2023 2023 7 981.97 2022 1-2023 5 1527.06 2023 8#2024Q1 2024 2023 1)2)3)4)5)6)2023 12 27 P.7 3 2023 7 4 7 21 7 25 9 27 10 7/MW 11 13 5G 25%1.1.2 IRA 55%SEIA Wood Mackenzie 2023Q4 2022 55%33 GW 2024 2023 12 27 P.8 4 2014-2028 SEIA Wood Mackenzie 5 2023 IRA 5 12 ITC PTC i 100%ii 40%2023 5%2025 55%20%2027 55%IRS 11 15 21 20 2030 2030 2020 1.1.3 7%CAGR InfoLink 2023 92-114 GW 1.25 73.6-91.2GW 2027 141-160 GW CAGR 7%-8.9%2023 12 27 P.9 6 GW Infolink REPowerEU 2030 45%1236 GW 600 GW Net Zero Industry Act 2023 2030 52 GW 79.9 GW 53%39 GW 76 GW 94%200 GW 215 GW 2023 12 27 P.10 7 2023 3 16 2030 40%3 16 2030 10%40%15%65%CBAM 4 25 2023 10 1 CBAM 10 2026 CBAM 10 8 Net-Zero-1.2 EPC 2023 12 27 P.11 8 2021 10 2021 2024 2023 9 2007-2023 10%Wind-2-10123456782008-01-01 2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01 2013-01-01 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 2019-01-01 2020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01:10:10:10:10:10 2023 12 27 P.12 12 2024 2023 2024 2024 2024 2 2024 2024 474GW 2024 10 2024 GW 2023 12 27 P.13 2.1 2023 1-10 4 22%1.3 1 1.25 1-10 460GW 368GW 2023 11 2023 1-10 CPIA 2.2 2024 12 2023/kg 13 2023 182mm/PV infolink PV infolink 85.7371.3330.6294.7114460404367050100150200250300350400450500/GW/GW/GW2022 2023 1-10 64 80 87 87 74 65 65 6065707580859028/Jun/23 26/Jul/23 23/Aug/23 20/Sep/23 18/Oct/23 15/Nov/23 14/Dec/23 2.80 3.35 3.08 2.78 2.40 2.10 22.22.42.62.833.23.43.628/Jun/23 2/Aug/23 6/Sep/23 11/Oct/23 15/Nov/23182mm 182mm 2023 12 27 P.14 14 2023 182mm Perc/W 15 2023 182mm Perc/W PV infolink PV infolink 2.3 0.75 0.72 0.60 0.45 0.38 0.30.350.40.450.50.550.60.650.70.750.828/Jun/23 2/Aug/23 6/Sep/23 11/Oct/23 15/Nov/23182mm Perc 182mm Perc 1.361.281.241.211.151.1111.051.11.151.21.251.31.351.41.4528/Jun/23 2/Aug/23 6/Sep/23 11/Oct/23 15/Nov/23182mm Perc 182mm Perc 2023 12 27 P.15 2024 N 3.1 N 70%2024 N 2023 N 2024 N CPIA N 24%-25%Perc 1.3 pct 2 pct TOPCon HJT N P Perc N 16 2022-2030 17 2022-2030 CPIA CPIA 3.2 N 3.2.1/1)2022 85.7 2023 1-10 114 2024 180 2)2023 12 27 P.16 3)/1 2 3 3.2.2 N 2024 N TOPCon 500GW 1 1.25 2.17g/W 10%150 N 65%N 95 P 55 18 2024 N N N P 1 2 3 N N 1 2 3 N N N N 2 0 2 4 年 基 本 需 求 假 设 2 0 2 4 年 N 型 需 求 假 设全 球 光 伏 需 求(G W)500 N 型 电 池(G W)P 型 电 池(G W)容配比 1.25 406 219所 需 组 件/电 池/硅 片(G W)625 N 型 硅 料(万 吨)P 型 硅 料(万 吨)硅 耗（g/W）2.17 94 55名义所需硅料（万吨）136产业链周转库存系数 10%实际所需硅料（万吨）149 2023 12 27 P.17 3.2.3 2024 19 2023 BNEF 3.2.4 2024 2021 2024 1 11 2 1 40 100%2 1 40 2023 1 2023 9 4.2 3.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 82%2 2023 7 35.68/kg 7 30/kg 3 0.5ppbw 90%2023 12 27 P.18 3.3 TOPCon 3.3.1 TOPCon 1.6mm N N 10%-30%25/30 0.7%/0.5%2022 40.4%CPIA 2024 20 CPIA 1.6mm 2.0mm 1.6mm CPIA 1.6mm 2022 0.5%POE CPC 3.2mm 2.0mm+2.0mm 1.6mm+1.6mm 1.6mm 3.2mm 2.0mm 9%/5%+1.6mm 1.6mm 20kg/m2 GB50009-2012 2.0KN/m2 200kg/m2 0.5KN/m2 50kg/m2 0.5kN/0.7kN/1.6mm 1.6mm 1.6mm 4/m2 2.0mm 5/m2 3.2mm 8/m2 1.6mm 3.2mm 2.0mm 50%20%2023 12 27 P.19 21/POE 22 SMM 3.3.2 EVA POE EPE EPE EVA POE EPE EVA POE EPE EVA POE POE EVA。23 EPE N EPE N P N P EPE N TOPCon N TOPCon EPE EVA POE EPE N TOPCon POE POE N TOPCon POE+EPE/EPE+EPE/EPE+EVA N TOPCon SMM 2023 1-7 EPE 35%EPE N EPE 85401234567893.2mm 2.0mm 1.6mm kg/m2 EV A 树 脂 P O E树 脂EVAPOEEVA 2023 12 27 P.20 24 kschan InfoLink Consulting CMPE 3.3.3 25 2021-2023 26 2021-2023 Wind Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 2023 12 27 P.21 27 2021-2023 28 2021-2023 Wind Wind 3.4 2024 3.4.1 GW 2013 GW 2024 29 2023-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 2023 12 27 P.22 11 23 12 14 11 23 1000 x2000 18.04%18%1 18%GW 2 11 30 279mm 370mm 26.17%12 14 369mm 555mm 26.34%30 31-N TOPCon 32.33%2022 31.13%2025 28%-30%-1-2-2023 12 27 P.23 GW 3.4.2 HJT 0-1 HJT HJT HJT HJT HJT 0-1 HJT CPIA 2030 25%32 2022-2030 CPIA PVD LDI LDI 2023 12 27 P.24 HJT LDI 碁 33/碁 3.4.3 BC TOPCon HJT BC BC Back contact N HJT TOPCon HBC PBC HPBC TBC ABC BC PN SiNx/SiOx BC BC 3 BC SunPower Maxeon IBC HPBC ABC BC BC BC BC Know-How 2023 12 27 P.25 3.5 10 2020 PE 50 8-9 7 2023 34 2017-2023 PE-FY1/FY2 Wind 2023.12.20 Wind N/N N TOPCon N TOPCon 1.6mm EPE EPE Know-How HJT BC HJT 1 HJT 碁 BC BC 010203040506017/1/3 17/11/3 18/9/3 19/7/3 20/5/3 21/3/3 22/1/3 22/11/3 23/9/3PE-FY1 PE-FY2-10X 2023 12 27 P.26 1 2024 2024 2 3 4 2023 12 27 P.27“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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