资源描述
|2023 11 27 021-S0980520110002 021-S0980523030001 010-国际玉米价格分析框架 国内玉米价格分析框架2016 相关标的 风险因素 2YWEVyRrMoNqRpRnOrMpQmN8O9R9PnPpPsQmPeRqRnMeRnPuM9PoPrMuOpPoPuOmOsQ 01 02 03 04 Visaul Capitalist Visaul Capitalist 2019 2019 4 USDA 23/24 12.21 USDA 23/24 12.05 63.05%5 USDA USDA 02004006008001,0001,2001,400198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200400600800100012001400198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:-USDA 21/22 31%22%10%6%4%3%2%-USDA 21/22 2.05 31%23%17%13%21/22 21/22 USDA Visaul Capitalist 2019 2019 6 31.45%22.39%9.53%27 5.88%4.07%3.46%2.20%/21.02%30.66%23.45%16.61%13.18%/16.10%-USDA 21/22 12.00 21/22 3.17 2.91 26%24%-USDA 21/22 1.85 27 12%11%10%9%21/22 21/22 USDA USDA 2019 2019 7 26.43%24.25%27 6.89%5.88%3.67%/32.88%11.86%27 10.72%9.52%8.76%8.14%6.24%/44.76%8 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 28.64 25.12 20.86 31.29 43.97 44.12 58.25 54.37 56.41 48.76 31.36 34.98 34.58 313.95 273.19 351.27 361.09 345.51 384.78 371.10 364.26 345.96 358.45 382.89 348.75 386.97 0.75 4.06 0.91 0.80 1.72 1.45 0.92 0.71 1.06 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.64 39.18 18.55 48.78 47.42 48.29 58.27 61.92 52.48 45.13 69.78 62.78 45.09 52.71 279.03 262.97 292.97 301.79 298.79 313.83 313.98 310.45 309.55 306.69 317.12 303.67 314.72 25.12 20.86 31.29 43.97 44.12 58.25 54.37 56.41 48.76 31.36 34.98 35.98 54.75 USDA 2022/2023 2023/2024 2023 11 4-5 6-8 9-11 20/21 21/22 6 6-10 10 30%4-5 5-9 10 60%2.6-2.7 3 60%30%2000-3000 6-6.5 20/21 21/22 9 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 49.42 59.34 67.57 81.32 100.47 212.02 223.02 222.53 210.18 200.53 205.7 209.14 206.04 192.78 205.61 218.49 215.65 224.63 263.61 259.07 257.17 260.78 260.67 272.55 277.2 277 5.23 2.7 3.28 5.52 3.17 2.46 3.46 4.48 7.58 29.51 21.88 18 23 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.01 0 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.02 0.02 188 200 208 202 217.5 255 263 274 278 285 291 299 304 59.34 67.57 81.32 100.47 110.77 223.02 222.53 210.16 200.53 205.7 209.14 205.32 202.02 USDA 2022/2023 2023/2024 2023 11 10-12 2-6 30%1-2 6-9 70%1.3 7000-8000 5000-6000 20/21 21/22 2019 2019 10 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 10.28 9.21 9.15 13.97 7.84 6.77 14.02 9.32 5.31 5.33 4.15 3.97 10.36 73.00 81.50 80.00 85.00 67.00 98.50 82.00 101.00 102.00 87.00 116.00 130.00 129.00 0.77 0.89 0.79 0.33 3.42 0.85 0.92 1.66 1.66 2.85 2.60 1.00 1.20 24.34 24.95 20.97 34.46 14.00 31.60 24.15 39.66 35.14 21.02 48.00 53.00 55.00 50.50 52.50 55.00 57.00 57.50 60.50 63.50 67.00 68.50 70.00 70.50 74.00 77.50 9.21 14.15 13.97 7.84 6.77 14.02 9.28 5.31 5.33 4.15 4.25 7.97 8.06 USDA 2022/2023 2023/2024 2023 11 9-11 12-3 3-6 5000 1000-1500 20/21 21/22 22/23 2019 2019 11 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 4.13 0.90 1.31 1.41 2.90 1.45 5.27 2.41 2.37 3.62 1.18 1.50 1.11 21.00 27.00 26.00 29.75 29.50 41.00 32.00 51.00 51.00 52.00 49.50 37.00 55.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 17.15 18.69 17.10 18.96 21.64 25.99 22.47 37.24 36.25 40.94 34.00 25.00 41.00 7.00 7.90 8.80 9.30 9.30 11.20 12.40 13.80 13.50 13.50 15.20 12.00 14.10 0.99 1.31 1.41 2.90 1.46 5.27 2.41 2.37 3.62 1.18 1.49 1.50 1.01 USDA 2022/2023 2023/2024 2023 11 12 13 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 129.35 132.16 133.41 174.80 209.73 311.48 351.96 340.97 322.41 307.41 292.84 308.15 299.22 886.64 868.00 990.47 1,016.03 972.21 1,123.41 1,080.09 1,124.92 1,120.13 1,129.50 1,216.00 1,150.20 1,220.79 99.92 99.43 123.95 125.17 139.23 135.59 149.93 164.42 167.66 184.94 184.50 175.41 189.87 507.10 517.95 571.08 584.70 601.58 656.07 672.36 703.88 716.03 723.98 749.84 730.46 759.78 883.16 864.73 948.85 981.01 968.01 1,084.14 1,090.45 1,144.82 1,136.17 1,144.08 1,202.55 1,160.94 1,205.03 116.98 95.16 131.10 142.20 119.74 160.06 148.24 181.71 172.25 182.70 204.73 175.44 199.62 132.82 135.43 175.03 209.82 213.93 350.75 341.60 321.07 306.37 292.84 306.28 297.41 314.99 15.04%15.66%18.45%21.39%22.10%32.35%31.33%28.05%26.97%25.60%25.47%25.62%26.14%USDA 2022/2023 2023/2024 2023 11 USDA 0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00000000002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:/:01 02 03 04 2016 2008 1 2008-2015 2 2016-2019 3 2020 15 2008-2015 2008 10 20 1.52/1.52/1.50/1.48/2009-2014 5 48.7%/49.3%/50.0%16 2008-2015 1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008-2015 2004-2015 2008-2015 17 2008-2015 2008-2015 USDA 2008-2015 USDA 3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016:53.1751.3049.4259.3467.5781.32100.47110.770%10%20%30%40%50%60%02040608010012008/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16:0.01.02.03.04.05.06.008/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16:2008-2015 2015 2016 2016 3 28 2016 2015 18 2008-2015 USDA 2016-2019 2016 4 30 2015 2015 11 5 5000 4 2016-2019 1200/2700/400/1300 2016-2019-138/-454/-190/+360 19 2016 2016 0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/0.91.01.11.21.31.41.55.96.06.16.26.36.46.56.66.76.82015 2016 2017 2018 2019:-:-1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,90025,20025,40025,60025,80026,00026,20026,40026,6002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016-2019 2017 2018 3280 9883 2016-2019 317/283/352/479 2016 2018 2016-2019 20 16 16/17 USDA 2019 10 171.57 3,280.00 9,883.19 1,957.39 5,694.75 0.95 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:223.02222.53210.16200.5350%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%18519019520020521021522022516/17 17/18 18/19 19/20:01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002015 1 2015 7 2016 1 2016 7 2017 1 2017 7 2018 1 2018 7 2019 1 2019 7 2020 1 2020 7 2021 1 2021 7 2022 1 2022 7 2016-2019+2017 2017-2018 2019 2019Q2 2019 28 21 2016-2020 USDA 2020-2022+2020-2022 2021 2000 2020-2022 2020-2022 2019 2020 2020-2021 22 2021/22 2020-2021 2020/21 2000 26,077 26,066 27,255 27,720 28,823 405410415420425430435440240002500026000270002800029000300002019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24/17532150151513310.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02,500.02019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23-200204060801002020 5 2020 5 2020 5 2020 5 2020 5 2020 5 2020 6 2020 6 2020 6 2020 6 2020 6 2020 7 2020 7 2020 7 2020 7 2020 7 2020 8 2020 8 2020 8 2020 8 2020 8 2020 9 2020 9 2020 9 2020 9 2020 9 2020 10 2020 10 2020 10 2020 10 2020 10 2020 11 2020 11 2020 11 2020 11 2020 11 2020 12 2020 12 2020 12 2020 12 2020 12 2021 1 2021 1 2021 1 2021 1 2021 1 2021 2 2021 2 2021 2 2021 2 2021 2 2021 3 2021 3 2021 3 2021 3 2021 3 2021 4 2021 4 2021 4 2021 4 2021 4 2021 5 2021 5 2021 5 2021 5 2021 5 2021 6 2021 6 2021 6 2021 6 2021 6 2021 7 2021 7 2021 7 2021 7 2021 7 2021 7 2021 8 2021 8 2021 8 2021 8 2021 8 2021 9 2021 9 2021 9 2021 9 2021 9 2021 10 2021 10 2021 10 2021 10 2021 10 2021 11 2021 11 2021 11 2021 11 2021 11:%:%2020-2022+iFinD USDA 2020-2022+23 2020-2022 2020-2022 2021 3000 010020030040050060070080090005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002016-01-04 2017-01-04 2018-01-04 2019-01-04 2020-01-04 2021-01-04 2022-01-04():/():CBOT/01 02 03 04 USDA 11 2023/24 3822 1800 27 2023/24 0.52pcts 25 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 23 11 23 11 322.41 307.41 292.84 308.15 299.22 1,120.13 1,129.50 1,216.00 1,150.20 1,220.79 167.66 184.94 184.50 175.41 189.87 716.03 723.98 749.84 730.46 759.78 1,136.17 1,144.08 1,202.55 1,160.94 1,205.03 172.25 182.70 204.73 175.44 199.62 306.37 292.84 306.28 297.41 314.99 26.97%25.60%25.47%25.62%26.14%USDA iFinD 0100200300400500600700800900():CBOT 26 11 2023/24 1103 11 2023/24 1750 1000 2019/20 2020/21 2021/222022/23 11 2023/24 102022/23 11(1000 hectares)41284 41264 43324 43070 43870 43870 41284 41264 43324 43070 43870 43870/(kgper hectare)6316 6317 6291 6436 6570 6570(10000 tons)26077 26066 27255 27720 28823 28823 760 2956 2189 1872 1750 1750 27830 28216 28770 29051 29500 29500 943 955 965 980 991 991 17400 18000 18600 18800 19100 19100 8200 8000 8000 8100 8238 8238 187 187 195 191 193 193 1100 1074 1010 980 978 978 1 0 0 1 1 1-994 806 674 540 1072 1072 01 02 03 04 2016 iFinD 1 2 2880901001101201301402002 2002 2002 2002 20022003 2003 2003 2003 20032004 2004 2004 2004 2004 20042005 2005 2005 2005 20052006 2006 2006 2006 20062007 2007 2007 2007 20072008 2008 2008 2008 20082009 2009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 2010 2010 20102011 2011 2011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 2012 20122013 2013 2013 2013 20132014 2014 2014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019 2019 20192020 2020 2020 2020 20202021 2021 2021 2021 2021:50 2 6 13 661 605 618 5 2021 605 335 5 6 iFinD iFinD-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 29 23.20%2020 1 21 2022 4 29 nCX-1 CdP450 cp4epsps 2,4-D 125 8 2022 12%iFinD iFinD-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 30 6 8 368 618 2021 170 2021 12 1 2000 368 618 2 2023 368 618 20/21 2021 iFinD 36.36%28.06%17.18%35.16%33.49%41.08%3.50%11.94%15.29%24.98%26.52%26.45%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 958 368 618 0102030405060702019 2020 2021 958-(%)368-(%)618-(%)010203040502017 2018 2019 2020 2021-%-%-%31+1984+2022 969 520 609 6 100 105 391 608 W1505 720 1.23 20%iFinD iFinD 61%64%64%71%71%69%19%15%17%16%17%22%21%22%19%13%12%9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32 2022 2248 23.7%114 42.8%2022 65.5%14.0%9.5%9.0%2021 MAP MAP iFinD iFinD iFinD 1,396.951,506.111,587.791,817.512,248.45631.290%5%10%15%20%25%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 65.24%67.61%67.70%65.42%65.47%15.76%14.61%14.37%14.50%14.00%16.25%14.71%12.97%11.82%9.51%0.63%1.06%3.12%6.08%9.00%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 96.71106.97111.59128.15138.8641%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%0204060801001201401602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 33 MAP 2022 8 1,000 400 2022 1.52+51.17%25.79%39.36%65.03%iFinD iFinD 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 34 2020/1/21 2021/2/4+cry1Ab epsps DBN9936）65%4 2021/2/4 vip3Aa19 pat DBN9501）95%4 2020/7/15 2021/2/4+epsps pat DBN9858 DBN9936 DBN9501 2021/12/27 cry1Ab、epsps，vip3Aa19、pat DBN3601T）DBN9936 DBN9501 2021/2/4 epsps pat DBN9004 2023/4/28 mvip3Aa pat DBN8002）35 2022 5.0 8 2022 2.7 22 308 1525 919 2022 1.4 152 325 2 1 2022 24.8 2022 8.7-%iFinD iFinD 47.2016.7616.51 9.54 5.17 2.692.12051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 36 1995 18 4.5 2022 1,585.03 1.52%2.27 6.20%968 999 702 iFinD iFinD 318.50257.77263.89275.38240.06221.70234.97-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy307.39245.25256.73263.61233.76214.25227.5301020304050600501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%37 328 15 8 5 17 10 7000 2022 7.38 21.93%1.29 75.3%2022 1.58 20.72%-2,098.91%iFinD iFinD 655.14485.18767.471,183.71954.21922.131,004.68-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy422.22253.34338.57 338.32389.76605.64738.440510152025303501002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 38 2022 52.88 2.81 2023 128.25 32.53 39 iFinD iFinD 48.8480.2886.20106.40127.270102030405060700204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)6.055.916.707.378.26(4)(2)024681012141601234567892018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)()2022 42.62 73%16 2022 121.4 40 iFinD iFinD 32.6531.1132.4136.2942.62(10)(5)051015200510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)9.768.499.908.579.75(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152025307.588.599.51010.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)41 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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